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  #1  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:17 PM
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SouthSide_HitMen SouthSide_HitMen is offline
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Default Baseball Prospectus Picks White Sox 4th AGAIN

AL East W L RS RA
Yankees 94 68 910 777
Red Sox 93 69 913 783
Blue Jays 79 83 788 809
Orioles 77 85 777 817
Devil Rays 69 93 744 869

AL Central W L RS RA
Indians 88 74 825 757
Twins 84 78 757 727
Tigers 83 79 800 776
White Sox 82 80 785 772
Royals 61 101 695 901

AL West W L RS RA
A's 93 69 823 705
Angels 81 81 723 732
Rangers 80 82 874 877
Mariners 77 85 761 806

NL East W L RS RA
Mets 88 74 771 702
Phillies 86 76 790 743
Braves 85 77 791 745
Marlins 71 91 660 751
Nationals 70 92 636 742

NL Central W L RS RA
Cardinals 86 76 748 703
Cubs 85 77 725 690
Brewers 84 78 742 713
Astros 81 81 717 716
Pirates 79 83 731 755
Reds 78 84 746 778

NL West W L RS RA
Dodgers 87 75 748 694
Giants 80 82 738 742
Padres 78 84 698 724
D'Backs 77 85 762 798
Rockies 74 88 806 880


My subscription runs out in 5 days.

I am still steaming at the person who recommended this to me for fantasy baseball.
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  #2  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:20 PM
daveeym daveeym is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthSide_HitMen
My subscription runs out in 5 days.

I am still steaming at the person who recommended this to me for fantasy baseball.
That's funny. I would be too. I bet you he doesn't use it and laughs about setting you up.

I'll add a serious question to this. How does BP present this? Is it presented as "we ran the numbers and this is what is projected." or do they actually try to justify it and say this is how the season would turn out and make adjustments to the numbers based on things like Thome coming off an injury? If it's just numbers presented I guess I wouldn't have a problem with it. The last 5 years as a sox fan has shown all of us that "on paper" doesn't mean much, good or bad.

Last edited by daveeym; 03-29-2006 at 02:25 PM.
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  #3  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:20 PM
nedlug nedlug is offline
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha haha.
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  #4  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:26 PM
CHISOXFAN13 CHISOXFAN13 is offline
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They have three teams winning 90-plus games?

That's a little low and very unrealistic if you ask me.
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  #5  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:29 PM
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That's incredible. As I see it, they got every single division wrong!

AL East
Toronto (yeah, I know; Burnett's a question mark, but I really think they improved themselves)

AL Central
Who else?

AL West
Angels

NL East
Braves

NL Central
Astros

NL West
D'Backs (I actually don't think they have the pitching, but given the division, I'm breaking out the home team discount.)

Can't wait to see who's closer--me or those clowns.
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  #6  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:30 PM
Baby Fisk Baby Fisk is offline
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Once again, while I am not a representative of PETA, I feel it is necessary for there to be a CALL TO ACTION to conduct a raid of the Baseball Prospectus offices and rescue the little monkey whose butt they pulled these predictions out of. Poor little monkey...
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  #7  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:31 PM
veeter veeter is offline
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They picked the Sox for 4th last year? Then I love these predictions.
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  #8  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:36 PM
0o0o0 0o0o0 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthSide_HitMen
I am still steaming at the person who recommended this to me for fantasy baseball.
Wow. Those must be some sweet fantasy rankings then.
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  #9  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:36 PM
daveeym daveeym is offline
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Wow just looked up the Sox rs and ra from last year.

741 rs and 645 ra. They predict
785 rs and 772 ra. I think they misplaced a decimal or carried an extra one somewhere on the runs against. That's an 127 run increase.
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  #10  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:39 PM
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I wonder what the defenders have to say about this?
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  #11  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:39 PM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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That's odd, because their commentary has generally been positive towards the Sox in their various articles & chats. I assume it's the article that discusses their ranking based strictly on PECOTA, so I could see how it might undervalue the Sox.

The question IMO is what their commentary on the results is. At the very least I'd expect them to address it when their output has the team most "mainstream" media outlets are picking for the division and in many cases the title dropping to 4th place. Any subscribers able to post a short nugget (within copyright allowances) on their Sox commentary?
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  #12  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:42 PM
Iwritecode Iwritecode is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHISOXFAN13
They have three teams winning 90-plus games?

That's a little low and very unrealistic if you ask me.
Somebody should run the #'s and see if it's even mathmatically possible. The past few years there hasn't been any less than 7 teams with 90+ wins. Sometimes as many as 11.


Also, when is the last time a team has had a 17 game dropoff after winning the World Series the year before? Well, the Angles went from 99 wins in 2002 to 77 wins in 2003 so I guess it's possible but I seriously doubt it with the pitching staff the Sox have.

I think they still can't get over how "lucky" the Sox were last year...
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  #13  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:46 PM
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SouthSide_HitMen SouthSide_HitMen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veeter
They picked the Sox for 4th last year? Then I love these predictions.
Last year they said the White Sox would finish 70-92. This year they figured on 12 more wins.

Daveeym - If I would have read this site before I bought the subscription, I would have never bought it.

These numbers were their "PECOTA" Computer generated model and they tried to backpeddle from some of the predictions including the White Sox (though they wholeheartedly embraced the 70-92 prediction for 2005 and said they had a chance of Kansas City coming close).

The author added this to the "predictions" (and my comments).

AL East - He'd bet Boston over New York (I wouldn't) - moneyball bias shows again.

AL Central - He says he thinks the White Sox 82 wins seems low but they should not be a prohibitive favorite to win the AL Central.

AL West - A's are the prohibitive favorites for the 14th consecutive season.

NL East - Mets bought their way to a title (sidenote - I am a Mets fan, I don't have them winning the division).

NL Central - The Cards deserve the 86 win prediction (I think they run away again - no way the cubs are within striking distance of anything).

NL West - I agree with their Dodgers pick only because this division still blows.

Here are my predicitions:

AL East

NY Yankees 96-66 -
Boston 91-71 5 (Wild Card)
Toronto 85-77 11
Baltimore 79-83 17
Tampa Bay 71-91 25

AL Central

White Sox 93-69 -
Cleveland 89-73 4
Minnesota 84-78 9
Detroit 80-82 13
Kansas City 64-98 29

AL West
Oakland 88-74 -
Angels 80-82 8
Texas 78-84 10
Seattle 73-89 15

White Sox over Boston 3-1
New York over Oakland 3-1

White Sox over New York 4-2

NL East
Atlanta 88-74 -
Philadelphia 87-75 1 (Wild Card)
NY Mets 83-79 5
Washington 69-93 19
Florida 66-96 22

NL Central
St. Louis 94-68 -
Houston 86-76 8
Chicago 84-78 10
Milwaukee 82-80 12
Cincinnati 75-87 19
Pittsburgh 73-89 21

NL West
Los Angeles 86-76 -
San Diego 80-82 6
Arizona 78-84 8
San Francisco 77-85 9
Colorado 73-89 13

St. Louis over Philadlephia 3-2
Los Angeles over Atlanta 3-1

St. Louis over Los Angeles 4-2

White Sox over St. Louis 4-1


I may be wrong about the playoffs but I think my picks will turn out better than BPs (though that is really not saying much).
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  #14  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:47 PM
Iwritecode Iwritecode is offline
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Here's a board with the entire article.

They can get into trouble for having copyright violations. Just don't start trolling the board or dragging trolls back here...
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  #15  
Old 03-29-2006, 02:49 PM
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SouthSide_HitMen SouthSide_HitMen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0o0o0
Wow. Those must be some sweet fantasy rankings then.
They have helped with a few sleepers but those were more than offset by several stinkers. I ran their projections this year but mostly relied on other sources. The one thing I think they do well is the injury work of Will Carroll - they rank the players based on health risk and he has uncovered several things denied by the clubs which turned out to be true several days later (including Prior and Wood which the Cubs were lying about).
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