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  #1  
Old 10-20-2005, 10:48 PM
soxwon soxwon is offline
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Default vegas odds on game 1

Astros/Wh Sox - Margin of Victory - Game 1
10-22-05 8:15 PM


Astros Win By 01 Runs4-1 Astros Win By 02 Runs9-2 Astros Win By 03 Runs7-1 Astros Win By 04 Runs12-1 Astros Win By 05 Runs20-1 Astros Win By 06 Runs30-1 Astros Win By 07 or More Runs15-1 White Sox Win By 01 Runs17-5 White Sox Win By 02 Runs4-1 White Sox Win By 03 Runs11-2 White Sox Win By 04 Runs10-1 White Sox Win By 05 Runs17-1 White Sox Win By 06 Runs25-1 White Sox Win By 7 or More Runs12-1
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  #2  
Old 10-20-2005, 11:38 PM
DenverSock DenverSock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soxwon
Astros/Wh Sox - Margin of Victory - Game 1
10-22-05 8:15 PM


Astros Win By 01 Runs4-1 Astros Win By 02 Runs9-2 Astros Win By 03 Runs7-1 Astros Win By 04 Runs12-1 Astros Win By 05 Runs20-1 Astros Win By 06 Runs30-1 Astros Win By 07 or More Runs15-1 White Sox Win By 01 Runs17-5 White Sox Win By 02 Runs4-1 White Sox Win By 03 Runs11-2 White Sox Win By 04 Runs10-1 White Sox Win By 05 Runs17-1 White Sox Win By 06 Runs25-1 White Sox Win By 7 or More Runs12-1
This shows a slight favoring of the Sox. How accurate is this as a predictor?
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  #3  
Old 10-20-2005, 11:40 PM
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Nellie_Fox Nellie_Fox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverSock
This shows a slight favoring of the Sox. How accurate is this as a predictor?
For the umpteenth time, Vegas odds are not a reflection of what they think is going to happen. It is what they think will attract the betting to the best interest of the house. It predicts nothing except what the bookies think will attract bettors.
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  #4  
Old 10-20-2005, 11:49 PM
DenverSock DenverSock is offline
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Default No need to get snippy.

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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox
For the umpteenth time, Vegas odds are not a reflection of what they think is going to happen. It is what they think will attract the betting to the best interest of the house. It predicts nothing except what the bookies think will attract bettors.
I am well aware of this. Nonetheless certain betting odds have a history of extremely accurate predictions, e.g. The Iowa Political Futures. Hence, my question. I neither assumed nor implied that odds were suppossed to be predictors. You assumed it. You inferred it.
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  #5  
Old 10-20-2005, 11:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverSock
This shows a slight favoring of the Sox. How accurate is this as a predictor?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverSock
I neither assumed nor implied that odds were suppossed to be predictors.
Okay, now I'm confused.
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  #6  
Old 10-21-2005, 12:03 AM
DenverSock DenverSock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox
Okay, now I'm confused.
Stop it. Odds are not supposed to be predictors just attractors of betting. Never the less some are accurate predictors. I gave the example of the Iowa Political Futures which, bluntly have never failed. That is why they are the subjects of Academic study. Hence I asked the question how accurate are these? My belief is, as with football odds, not very. A good example would be the Colts as 171/2 point favorites over the Jets in the Super bowl. We all know what happenned. On the other hand, it can get confusing. Perhaps I could have expressed myself better.
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  #7  
Old 10-21-2005, 01:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverSock
Stop it. Odds are not supposed to be predictors just attractors of betting. Never the less some are accurate predictors. I gave the example of the Iowa Political Futures which, bluntly have never failed. That is why they are the subjects of Academic study. Hence I asked the question how accurate are these? My belief is, as with football odds, not very. A good example would be the Colts as 171/2 point favorites over the Jets in the Super bowl. We all know what happenned. On the other hand, it can get confusing. Perhaps I could have expressed myself better.
The odds don't try to predict the game - oddsmakers just want level action (50 / 50). But they are not irrelevant either. Oddsmakers have the most information and since it costs them money to have a weak line they have an incentive to make the best line possible. The casual bettor doesn't effect the line much - many bet favorites or "their team" and the odds are slightly adjusted to account for this. The White Sox were slight underdogs against Boston for the ALDS, medium favorites over Anaheim and slight favorites over Houston for the series.

I thought the last two lines were good but the first series should have been a pick'em. I thought the White Sox would have no problem against Boston but I also thought Boston would be respected with their offense, being the defending champion and their larger fan base. Even with these factors I thought the line would move from -130 to pick but it moved from pick to Boston slight favorites.

I had a real good feeling in the first two series and think the White Sox will win this series as well but it will be harder than the first two. Many of our fans think we will roll over Houston. I think it will go 6. Houston may force a game 7 but I don't think so. JR, scalpers, bookies and Bridgeport Bars are hoping it does.
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  #8  
Old 10-21-2005, 02:59 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by SouthSide_HitMen
I think it will go 6. Houston may force a game 7 but I don't think so. JR, scalpers, bookies and Bridgeport Bars are hoping it does.
I'm POSITIVE that JR would rather win Game 6 than risk a Game 7. In fact, I'm sure he wouldn't mind AT ALL if the series never came back to Chicago.
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  #9  
Old 10-21-2005, 06:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney
I'm POSITIVE that JR would rather win Game 6 than risk a Game 7. In fact, I'm sure he wouldn't mind AT ALL if the series never came back to Chicago.
Well if JR had a crystal ball and predict a "sure" win on Game 6 he would take it over risking an extra game and possible loss. He probably would love a Game 4 or 5 in Houston as well as 1 or 2 games more are big $ but not as big on losing out on WS Champs which are priceless - literally in terms of dollars, PR, and his own personal satisfaction. Plus it would add tens of millions to the worth of his club immediately and possibly in the hundreds of millions long term if (when) they take over Chicago.
I do think win or lose this trip to the World Series is HUGE for the club and he is way ahead as it is.

The club appreciated over $200 million coming into this season (inflation adjusted for the selling price in 1981) and you can add somewhere around $60 - $100 million based on if they win or not (I'd say $60 mil minimum) with the increase in season ticket base and demand in the near term.

Everyone else is hoping for 7 Games and a White Sox winner for business next season and beyond.
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  #10  
Old 10-21-2005, 09:06 AM
DenverSock DenverSock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthSide_HitMen
The odds don't try to predict the game - oddsmakers just want level action (50 / 50). But they are not irrelevant either. Oddsmakers have the most information and since it costs them money to have a weak line they have an incentive to make the best line possible. The casual bettor doesn't effect the line much - many bet favorites or "their team" and the odds are slightly adjusted to account for this. The White Sox were slight underdogs against Boston for the ALDS, medium favorites over Anaheim and slight favorites over Houston for the series.

I thought the last two lines were good but the first series should have been a pick'em. I thought the White Sox would have no problem against Boston but I also thought Boston would be respected with their offense, being the defending champion and their larger fan base. Even with these factors I thought the line would move from -130 to pick but it moved from pick to Boston slight favorites.

I had a real good feeling in the first two series and think the White Sox will win this series as well but it will be harder than the first two. Many of our fans think we will roll over Houston. I think it will go 6. Houston may force a game 7 but I don't think so. JR, scalpers, bookies and Bridgeport Bars are hoping it does.
Thanks for taking me seriously and a least giving me a serious answer. I did actually understand all of this before, but your exposition was excelent. My question remains. How good are baseball odds as predictors? Not being a gambler, I don't know. I know football odds are at best 50/50. Hence it's a good game for the oddsmakers. Also, sentiment, as outlined by you, distorts the betting pools. I don't believe that there is a large betting pool on baseball, but it gets larger as you move into the postseason. As the pool gets larger there is a chance that the odds start to mirror reality more. I'd like to know. BTW, I often find that I ask things without an enough explanation, witness this thread.
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  #11  
Old 10-21-2005, 10:14 AM
soxwon soxwon is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney
I'm POSITIVE that JR would rather win Game 6 than risk a Game 7. In fact, I'm sure he wouldn't mind AT ALL if the series never came back to Chicago.
it will be over in 5.
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