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  #31  
Old 10-03-2005, 10:01 PM
bigredrudy bigredrudy is offline
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I meant sure fire good major league players. Actually 4 is a good number. Valido looks good but a lot of people don't think he will hit at the upper levels. There are pitchers down there but pitchers are so injury prone you can't tell much. Think of Stumm, Wright, Malone, and Honel. And I am sure there are more. There is that catcher Hernandez but he is so far down that you can't tell much about him either. Besides Young I don't think there are any sure fire can't miss prospects at Birmingham. Sweeney has great bat control and good plate discipline but 0 home runs even at Birmingham. that won't work.Rowand, Maggs, Lee, and Crede all hit home runs at Birmingham and remember Joe Borchard.
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  #32  
Old 10-03-2005, 10:18 PM
bigredrudy bigredrudy is offline
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I am glad to get your comments about Chris Young because I know you have seen him play. the reason I brought up his possible trade is he was supposedly included in the Griffey trade. What did you think of Joe Borchard when he was coming up? i am interested. After his season at Birmingham I thought Joe was going to be a super star. But Joe never improved . His strikeout walk ratio has stayed about the same. I have been pulling for Joe more than I have pulled for any other player becasue of the kind of person he is but things just didn't happen for Joe
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  #33  
Old 10-03-2005, 10:20 PM
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Daver Daver is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigredrudy
I meant sure fire good major league players. Actually 4 is a good number. Valido looks good but a lot of people don't think he will hit at the upper levels. There are pitchers down there but pitchers are so injury prone you can't tell much. Think of Stumm, Wright, Malone, and Honel. And I am sure there are more. There is that catcher Hernandez but he is so far down that you can't tell much about him either. Besides Young I don't think there are any sure fire can't miss prospects at Birmingham. Sweeney has great bat control and good plate discipline but 0 home runs even at Birmingham. that won't work.Rowand, Maggs, Lee, and Crede all hit home runs at Birmingham and remember Joe Borchard.
I will repeat, either follow minor league baseball or shut up on the subject. Using stats alone to rate players, especially at the lower levels, is the absolute worst way to judge a ballplayer, and does little more than make you like a fool.
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  #34  
Old 10-03-2005, 10:48 PM
bigredrudy bigredrudy is offline
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I noticed you did not dispute anything I said -you just said I had no right to express my opinion. I can't understand that attitude. I have been following baseball since 1940. And I have been a White Sox fan since that time. I think I deserve more respect than you are giving me.
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  #35  
Old 10-03-2005, 11:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigredrudy
I noticed you did not dispute anything I said -you just said I had no right to express my opinion. I can't understand that attitude. I have been following baseball since 1940. And I have been a White Sox fan since that time. I think I deserve more respect than you are giving me.
Respect is earned, not given, you have not posted a single thing on this forum to lead me to give you any respect. I have no respect for someone that takes what he reads from BA and formulates on opinion on it based on that, none whatsoever. Most of the members here can regurgitate what is written at BA, if you are not adding anything to that you are adding nothing to the discussion.

If you want respect, seek it elsewhere.
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  #36  
Old 10-04-2005, 06:40 AM
Lillian Lillian is offline
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I hesitate to enter this discussion, given its antagonistic tone, however I thought that perhaps none of you were aware that Sweeney's lack of power has been attributed to an injury. I don't remember the exact nature of his problem, but I had read several times that it was the cause of his inablility to hit homers. I think it is a wrist problem. Does anyone know more about this injury?

Noone has mentioned Chris Young's age. He just turned 22. That suggests that his upside is tremendous.
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  #37  
Old 10-04-2005, 08:06 AM
bigredrudy bigredrudy is offline
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I know bout the size of Birmingham's ballpark and I have heard about Sweeney's injury. It is hard to believe that an outfield prospect could show so little power anyway. I don't know if they are going to move him up to AAA but I doubt it. Delmon Young is only 19 and has hit the hell out of the ball. I think another year at Birmingham might help.
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  #38  
Old 10-04-2005, 08:18 AM
Lillian Lillian is offline
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Who is Delmon Young?
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  #39  
Old 10-04-2005, 08:21 AM
bigredrudy bigredrudy is offline
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In the US we believe that people have the right to express an opinion even though it might be a minority opinion or one that is just plain stupid. I don't see how you can censor me simply based on the fact that you view me as uninformed. You seem to view yourself as some kind of expert-perhaps you see the minor leaguers play on a regular basis. I just don't know. Let me tell yo a story. I went to Indy once to see a Sox minor league game. While there I got to talk to Ron Schueler for about 30 minutes-perhaps even 45 minutes.It was obvious that Schueler thoght Brian Simmons was a much better prospect than Magglio even though Magglio was leading the IL in hitting. Schueler was the GM then. I then realized that experts might not be so expert after all.
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  #40  
Old 10-04-2005, 08:31 AM
Lillian Lillian is offline
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Chris Young was born on 9/5/83.
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  #41  
Old 10-04-2005, 08:44 AM
Lillian Lillian is offline
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Now I think that I am beginning to see from where your misunderstanding has arisen. Delmon Young led the Southern League, but he plays for another team. Perhaps you have him confused with Chris Young. If not, then I am the one who is very confused.
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  #42  
Old 10-04-2005, 09:06 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigredrudy
Schueler was the GM then. I then realized that experts might not be so expert after all.
Schueler was anything but an expert.

What did I think of Joe Borchard? I think the world of him. Unfortunately, he's his own worst enemy. The hardest thing to rate in this game is the mental aspect. Joe has never been able to drop his football mentality. His swing has SLOWLY shortened a bit, and he could be a cojntributor to some major league team next year (doubt it will be the Sox unless it's as a 4th OF'er, which is possible).

Borchard looked like a sure-fire stud, and few who saw him in Birmingham his first year there would have doubted it. However, he just never adjusted fully. They are very different individuals, but Corey Patterson is a guy who was similar. Joe's roadblocks come from the fact that he gets so down on himself. I don't think he's ever been able to truly be at-peace with the fact that even GREAT hitters fail 60-70% of the time.

Look, in the game of prospect evaluation, you're going to be wrong a good percentage of the time. On top of that, there is no way to "proove" that any player is truly a can't-miss, or a sure-fire... You can give it your best effort to project and guess, but hell, there are too many factors to success to be right or to "proove" anything... Hell, Jon Rauch looked like a future #1 or AT WORST a #2 starter, tore his labrum, and now he's floating around baseball as a AAAA player. It's a crap-shoot.

Again, if you want to pooh-pooh everything because of some BA article, or based on statistics, or based on some 4th hand account of a player or because he's a pitcher and he COULD get injured, go ahead. But if that's your attitude, you're wasting both of our times with your drivel about it. Again, if that's the angle you want to take, stick to the MLB boards.
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  #43  
Old 10-04-2005, 09:09 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lillian
Now I think that I am beginning to see from where your misunderstanding has arisen. Delmon Young led the Southern League, but he plays for another team. Perhaps you have him confused with Chris Young. If not, then I am the one who is very confused.
Lillian, he was using Young as an example of a kid who is younger than Young in the Southern League. Delmon Young was a TOP draft pick, not some 135 pound kid out of Texas who was raw as all get-out. There's a reason why Chris Young was drafted where he was, and it's primarily because he was nearly impossible to project because of size limitations and at the time, NO power. Delmon Young had a mature body, production, and a level of refinement rarely seen in hitters his age.

Again, none of those things really indicate who will develop into a better professional baseball player, rather, they simply indicate that Young is well ahead of the curve for his age.
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  #44  
Old 10-04-2005, 09:13 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigredrudy
Valido looks good but a lot of people don't think he will hit at the upper levels.
Most thought he wouldn't be able to hit at Winston-Salem when he was coming out of the draft. I have loved this kid since draft day. He's one of the smartest baseball players I've seen in a long time.

He will be a success IMO because of his instincts. There is nothing in his swing that would lead you to believe he couldn't succeed. He doesn't hit for much power, but who cares? He projects as a #2 hitter, not as the next A-Rod. Kid is a better defensive player today than Juan Uribe and has all the intangibles one would want to see out of a SS or #2 hitter.

Daver can vouch for my history on Valido, as it took a little convincing to get him on the Valido bandwagon back in the day...
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  #45  
Old 10-04-2005, 09:58 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigredrudy
I am glad to get your comments about Chris Young because I know you have seen him play. the reason I brought up his possible trade is he was supposedly included in the Griffey trade.
Let me also list a few numbers for you:

Here are the K numbers per PA and K:BB ratio for the hitters ranked around Young in the SL...

#1: Delmon Young: 355 PAs, 330 ABs, 25 BBs, 66 Ks... 2.64:1 K:BB, 5.38 PA/K
#2: Jeremy Hermida: 497 PAs, 386 ABs, 111 BBs, 89 Ks... 0.80 K:BB, 5.58 PA/K
#3: Jeff Francoeur: 356 PAs, 335 ABs, 21 BBs, 76 Ks... 3.62 K:BB, 4.68 PA/K
#4: Chris Young: 536 PAs, 466 ABs, 70 BB, 129 Ks... 1.84:1 K:BB, 4.16 PA/K
#6: Joel Guzman: 464 PAs, 422 ABs, 42 BBs, 128 Ks... 3.05 K:BB, 3.63 PA/K

All of these guys except Delmon Young are roughly the same age. Delmon was also the only guy with a higher SLG% than Chris Young.

In addition, Delmon and Chris Young both jumped from Low-A, but Francoeur spent last season in High-A and got 18 games in AA before spending this season there. Hermida also played a full-season in High-A last year. Guzman played 62 games in High-A in 2003, 87 games in High-A and 46 games in AA in 2004, prior to playing all season in 2005 in AA...

The numbers Chris Young put up after those first 2 months were better than Francoeur, Hermida, or Guzman. I only make this comparison because of the huge jump between low-A and AA that essentially, only Delmon Young, Chris Young, and Jerry Owens, were able to effectively make as hitters in 2005.

Again, Young K's a lot, but walks a lot too. His numbers were also very effected by his struggles adjusting to the talent level the first 1-2 months and when slowed by injury. He also had better SLG% than everyone but the best hitting prospect in baseball right now despite playing in perhaps the best pitcher's park in all of baseball.
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