Questions for Scouting Experts Only

[Optipessimism]

Originally Posted by Daver

Geez.

Did someone give the Rockies GM job to Danny Evans?

Paulie usually has a much better second half and Dye should pick it up a bit as well. In this pipedream scenario, KW would already be doing the Rockies a bit of a favor by letting them get out of most of Helton's contract plus I'm sure giving away a top prospect or two. Even if the Rockies ate Konerko's second half salary, I am sure they could send him to a contender with a small payroll for a decent prospect or two. And, if they ate part of Dye's contract, they could do the same thing and actually end up coming out ahead.

If anything were to happen like that, I would expect a third team to get involved somehow. But, just think of it:
Pods LF - Iguchi 2B - Helton 1B - Thomas DH - Rowand RF - Pierzynski C - Crede 3B - Anderson CF - Uribe SS

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

So sign me up for the Helton bandwagon. The package has got to start with Konerko for salary reasons; I'd be willing to include Rowand and one frontline prospect (anyone but B-Mac) if we could get him at an affordable price.

Yikes! I'm a charter member of this bandwagon, but not at that price! Given the Sox situation with a relatively deep lineup and the attendance boost, it should be doable based primarily on prospects (not named BMac or ideally Anderson) and taking on most of that contract. I stand by my Konerko+Sweeney+mid-level guys for Helton+$20-30mil.

Another option, depending on how confident they are in Frank's health would be a Konerko+Everett+the prospects for Helton+$20mil. Carl could do some damage in Coors, has a reasonable team option for '06 (IIRC, $5mil), and lets you move Dye to the bench for Anderson if he can't pick it up.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

Yikes! I'm a charter member of this bandwagon, but not at that price! Given the Sox situation with a relatively deep lineup and the attendance boost, it should be doable based primarily on prospects (not named BMac or ideally Anderson) and taking on most of that contract. I stand by my Konerko+Sweeney+mid-level guys for Helton+$20-30mil.

Another option, depending on how confident they are in Frank's health would be a Konerko+Everett+the prospects for Helton+$20mil. Carl could do some damage in Coors, has a reasonable team option for '06 (IIRC, $5mil), and lets you move Dye to the bench for Anderson if he can't pick it up.

I'd much rather keep Carl than Dye, even if he is more of a liability in the field. JMO.

Konerko+Dye+other stuff helps a lot more removing one overpaid OF'er from the already crowded picture.

[Knucksie]

Weeks ago, I stated somewhere on one of the forums that I had a fear that we may see the PK of a few years ago that only hits half of the year. This comment was in the context of one of the Joe Crede stinks threads. I was belittled as one of those "the sky is falling" posters.


This team is going nowhere with PK producing as he is right now. Question is will he snap out of it for a big second half? I believe he will if we can endure his lack of production in the meantime. The problem is that the pitching, although terrific thus far, can not and will not keep up at the pace they have. We can not expect the pitching to contiue to carry the club while the offense scores 2-3 runs a game. I believe the struggle is yet to come for this team.

I do believe this situation needs to be addressed. Problem is two fold.
1) I'm not so sure that KW and Ozzie will tamper with the chemistry of this team too much (trade) and it would be a real gamble to bring up an Anderson right now. Anderson would have to produce for this club from day one or he gets no PT. If you were willing to wait for him to make adjustments and endure his initial struggles, why make a change to begin with? Besides, if you want to bring up Anderson and give him a few spot starts to see what he can do, who do you send down?

2) If Dye isn't worth a bag of balls right now, what makes anyone think PK is? One possibility is that PK has a history of having a poor half and a great half. Some gm (Colorado?) may believe this will happen. If so, why should we tradfe the guy that is due for a big second half?

I think this is the real paradox of the situation. Let me go a step in a slightly different direction. I think the primary trade bait from the MLB club is Everett. He is not making a big impact on the team and with Frank to return soon, he is expendable. Question is why would Colorado want a player of Everett's ability? He can't play the field, he's not going to make them better (he is just a vetern filler for a club like them). Only chance is just the opportunity for them to dump Helton's salary. However, isn't this a "white flag" trade for Colorado? If so, they will want and need top quality prospects to save face with their fans (same may be said for trading for a Konerko and/or Dye). The only trade option I see for the SOX to trade Konerko, Dye or Everett is to a contending team that needs bench help or an impact. I doubt that such a team would trade a significant player in this type of deal that could help the SOX right now. Usually its veterans for prospects for trades during the season. Contenders aren't going to just swap parts of their line ups.

Bottom line is, as much as I would love to see Helton, it's not going to happen. I also think it is a reach (not impossible) to think and prospect/rookie is going to come in at this point and make an impact, be a difference maker. One exception could be a pitcher that gets a spot because of injury.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Randar68

I'd much rather keep Carl than Dye, even if he is more of a liability in the field. JMO.

Konerko+Dye+other stuff helps a lot more removing one overpaid OF'er from the already crowded picture.

While I agree with you that Carl is more valuable than Dye, I'd guess Colorado would feel the same way and might be more willing to do a deal with Carl than with Jermaine (or the Sox might be able to get more $$$ in return for dealing him, which IMO is going to be key to any deal).

[Frater Perdurabo]

Originally Posted by Knucksie

However, isn't this a "white flag" trade for Colorado?

It seems to me that a "White Flag" trade is when the team has a winning record and/or is within striking distance of the division or Wild Card, but gives up by trading away its better players. A team that is losing (like the Rockies) would have nothing to lose and everything to gain by re-loading or re-building. Hence, it's not a White Flag.

It also seems to me, based on what I've read here, the Rockies would be willing to deal Helton simply to get out from under his massive contract - much like the Rangers did when they traded Alex Rodriguez and cash for Alfonso Soriano.

The Sox should not trade Carl Everett until they are certain Frank can DH full-time.

As much of a pipedream as this is, IMHO any deal for hitting should wait until after Frank has returned and has had a sufficient number of at-bats to get going.

[Knucksie]

Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo

It seems to me that a "White Flag" trade is when the team has a winning record and/or is within striking distance of the division or Wild Card, but gives up by trading away its better players. A team that is losing (like the Rockies) would have nothing to lose and everything to gain by re-loading or re-building. Hence, it's not a White Flag.

I believe that a white flag trade would be one that signals and end to the current status and re-load or re-build. Whether or not the team has a winning record or not may not be the primary factor (although it was for the Sox when the term "white flag trade" was coined).

Anyway, let's role play...

Fan: "Why did you trade away the most valuable player in our organization?"

GM: "We appreciate all that Todd Helton has done for the Colorado Rockies and wish him the best of luck with his new team. However, while Todd has made significant contributions to the club, we fell it is time for us to re-build this franchise for the future while his trade value was at its highest. In other words, we got a deal we just couldn't pass up. This trade will significantly raise the level of play for the Colorado Rockies in the future."

Fan: "How will this trade help us in the future?"

GM: "Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye bring great veteran presence to our line up and will be a tremendous influence on our younger players."

Fan: "Wasn't Todd Helton a great veteran presence in our line up?"

GM: "He was. However, not having his lengthy high contract will allow us more room to manuver to acquire other players."

Fan: "What younger players do you have soon to arrive at the major league level and which free agents might you be interested in during the off season?"

GM: "Our minor league system is well stocked with players ready for the major league level. As far as possible free agent acquistions during the off season, I am not at liberty to say at this time due to tampering regulations, but I can say that we will exhaust all options to put the best team on the field in 2006 that we can. No stone will be left unturned."

Fan (thinking): "Sounds like a load of crap to me!"

I remember how angry Sox fans were when Harold Baines was traded to Texas. At least we got young talent in that trade. Could you imagine if they made that swap for another veteran player just to get rid of Baines?

I may be wrong, but this deal just doesn't make sense to me. But hey, stranger things have happened before and maybe a deal could be made. I think it would be more likely that a third team would have to get involved to take a Konerko/Dye/Whoever and throw in the prospects for Colorado. Probably a club that is hovering around .500 trying to get that last piece in place to make a run.

It would seem to me that a deal for Aubrey Huff would be more realistic. If Colorado is/does shop Helton around, it should drive the demand and price for Huff down.

I jst keep thinking that trading Konerko would be too bold of a move for a first place team. Good or bad, he is a cornerstone of this team and I feel they will not try to make this team better by trading him. I doubt addition by subtraction is the answer and I just don't see a swap of MLB first baseman happening.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Knucksie

Anyway, let's role play...

....

It would seem to me that a deal for Aubrey Huff would be more realistic. If Colorado is/does shop Helton around, it should drive the demand and price for Huff down.

As to your scenario, the Rockies response would be that they got a mix of great prospects (the scenarios posed here mostly involve guys like Sweeney, Rogowski, Tracey, Liotta, etc.), solid veterans (Dye, Konerko, Everett), and salary flexibility. They'd say "We weren't winning this year, and this deal accelerates our development so that we can active players for free agents, primarily pitching, and be contenders as early as next year".

And Huff will likely come more expensive than Helton in terms of talent given up simply because he's relatively cheap. Helton's contract is going to drastically limit the potential suitors, in fact its likely that if the Sox are interested, they'd only have to beat out the Orioles in the combination of prospects given up & cash received from Colorado in return.

[CWSGuy406]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

I'm not eager to see Helton come here. Helton is one of the few players whose numbers would decline sharply at USCF, and he is ridiculously expensive. Trading Konerko (and his salary) for Helton (and his salary) is fair without throwing in any grade A prospects.

I know I'm a little late on this, but as Randar alluded to, Helton is not just a Coors-Field player. He has a career OPS+ of 146; OPS+ is park adjusted (where 100 is average).

That contract would be tough to take on, but dang -- if you can get Colorado to take on a little less than half of it -- it would be really hard to pass up.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

And Huff will likely come more expensive than Helton in terms of talent given up simply because he's relatively cheap. Helton's contract is going to drastically limit the potential suitors, in fact its likely that if the Sox are interested, they'd only have to beat out the Orioles in the combination of prospects given up & cash received from Colorado in return.

Guess I REALLY don't understand Baltimore's interest. They have all the hitting in the world but have a mediocre pitching staff, particularly rotation. Palmiero's there AT LEAST the rest of this year. Sosa is a DH for all intents and purposes given his defensive shortcomings...

What the hell are they gonna do with Todd Helton? That's gonna prevent them from doing anything about their rotation...

[Knucksie]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

As to your scenario, the Rockies response would be that they got a mix of great prospects (the scenarios posed here mostly involve guys like Sweeney, Rogowski, Tracey, Liotta, etc.), solid veterans (Dye, Konerko, Everett), and salary flexibility. They'd say "We weren't winning this year, and this deal accelerates our development so that we can active players for free agents, primarily pitching, and be contenders as early as next year".

And Huff will likely come more expensive than Helton in terms of talent given up simply because he's relatively cheap. Helton's contract is going to drastically limit the potential suitors, in fact its likely that if the Sox are interested, they'd only have to beat out the Orioles in the combination of prospects given up & cash received from Colorado in return.

The most common combination talked about on this forum, I believe, was a deal for Helton involving Konerko or Dye, a prospect or two with Colorado eating a large portion of Helton's salary. In this scenario, I highly doubt KW would part with Konerko, Sweeney and Tracey or Liotta and Rogo wouldn't make sense for the Rockies since they would essentially be recieving two 1b in the deal. Borchard's name may be on the tips of some tongues but it would be a tough sell for the Rockies to believe in him.

In any case I fail to see how the Rockies could profess to gain a "mix of great prospects" and "solid veterans." I don't see the Sox giving that much up for a Helton. Plus, if they (Rockies) were to make the deal happen by throwing in cash, it would be hard to believe that they then are going to turn around and spend money in the off season on free agents of any worth.

I may be all wrong about a deal for Huff. Judging by the game today (only), maybe PK and Dye are starting to turn the corner and if so, all this talk is wasted, premature at the least. Perhaps they (PK and Dye) have been checking out the message boards and got a fire lit under their arses. LOL. Perhaps we should continue with the Crede bashing to get him hot again.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Knucksie

The most common combination talked about on this forum, I believe, was a deal for Helton involving Konerko or Dye, a prospect or two with Colorado eating a large portion of Helton's salary. In this scenario, I highly doubt KW would part with Konerko, Sweeney and Tracey or Liotta and Rogo wouldn't make sense for the Rockies since they would essentially be recieving two 1b in the deal. Borchard's name may be on the tips of some tongues but it would be a tough sell for the Rockies to believe in him.

It's all pure speculation, but most deals discussed here have begun with Ryan Sweeney, who's pretty highly regarded. Add in another lower level guy who's doing pretty well and a solid veteran. The Rockies would get 2 potential young cornerstones, and a guy to plug in from day 1 that they could possibly resign. Oh yeah, and they gain about 70mil in salary flexibility. If necessary, you can basically throw in Borchard as potential upside for them, but he won't be a major portion, just a sweetener.

Their primary desire is to shed the contract. Early rumors are that they might consider getting marginal prospects from Baltimore in exchange for Angelos taking on the entire deal (and Randar - I believe Angelos' point is to add a marquee name to fend off the encroachment by the Nats on his attendance). The question is whether they'd give a chunk of $$ in exchange for much better return in terms of prospects. The way baseball works today, their choices are to get max $$$ flexibility, or to give p some of that and get prospects. You can't get both unless you find a real chump to trade with.

As for the Rockies, their problem isn't so much that they need to reduce payroll, it's that they can be more competitive by spreading Helton's $$$ around to a couple of players. For example, this offseason, they could have gotten Matt Clement and a solid hitter for the $16mil Helton will make. And then you add in a potential stud hitter in Sweeney and a longshot who could pan out in Coors like Borchard. It's basically the recipe the Sox used this offseason in the C.Lee deal.

[delben91]

Originally Posted by Randar68

There's always room on board, but beware, I also started the "Aaron Rowand is a AAAA LF'er" Club, LOL!

I won't hijack this thread from its intended purpose too much, but I saw this and all the debates with the FOC came flooding back. I was definitely with Randar on this one, with maybe 2 or 3 other posters. I'm thrilled to be proven wrong, but just goes to show that there are always those players that don't fit any given "track" to the majors.

With that, I shall step aside and allow the pipedreaming to continue...

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

Yikes! I'm a charter member of this bandwagon, but not at that price! Given the Sox situation with a relatively deep lineup and the attendance boost, it should be doable based primarily on prospects (not named BMac or ideally Anderson) and taking on most of that contract. I stand by my Konerko+Sweeney+mid-level guys for Helton+$20-30mil.

Another option, depending on how confident they are in Frank's health would be a Konerko+Everett+the prospects for Helton+$20mil. Carl could do some damage in Coors, has a reasonable team option for '06 (IIRC, $5mil), and lets you move Dye to the bench for Anderson if he can't pick it up.

I don't think there's EVER been a trade involving so much cash. Not even close.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

I don't think there's EVER been a trade involving so much cash. Not even close.

IIRC, the Mike Hampton deal involved a bunch of cash going from Florida to Atlanta (although they saved $$ by sending Preston Wilson & CJ to the Rockies). EDIT: See here. Looks like $36mil of his deal was paid by Colorado & Florida. So sending $25-30mil with Helton would be considered a mere pittance!

In an interesting coincidence, Pablo Ozuna was ivolved in that deal, going from Florida to Colorado!

Also, didn't the original ARod to the BoSox deal involve a fairly large sum of $$$ going to Beantown from Hicks? That was commish-approved. I believe that unless it's a straight out purchase of a contract, a deal like this is likely to be approved. If not, I would think JR could put in a call to his Bud.