Questions for Scouting Experts Only

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo

I've been meaning to ask you about that....


... especially since I was on board with you on that one too, even if I wasn't as vocal about it.

Hey, there are guys who will just out-work their talent, IMO. Rowand proved to be the clear exception, although I don't think he'll ever reproduce the numbers he did last season on a regular basis. When guys can't do things for years in the minors and come all the way to the majors still being unable to do them, you're crazy if you don't have considerable doubt that they ever be able to do them. I give Aaron all the credit in the world. I was wrong, no shame in that. In the game of baseball, evaluating talent and predicting future performance, you're going to be wrong pretty regularly, it shouldn't be a shock when it happens.

Needless to say, Rowands year last year did shock me. My biggest complaint wasn't that people thought he would do well, it was because some irrational people chose to see him on Sportcenter running into walls and think "Hey, this guy is going to be a great player" and that's pretty much all they can say...

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Randar68

What is "produce?" I think he's a lock to hit .270 if you brought him up today. Every time I think he's going to temporarily struggle with a move up he comes out and hits .320 from start to finish, LOL!

I think his K rate will be high, especially initially, but he has shown to be someone who makes adjustments and makes them quickly. Heck, I'm not convinced Ryan Sweeney isn't a better option today than the Paul Konerko we've been watching stroll to the plate the last 4 weeks.

As bad as Konerko has looked, he's got a .331 OBP and is on pace for 37 HR and 112 RBI. But Dye has been producing almost nothing. IMO, he'd be a higher priority for replacement, of course assuming he doesn't kick it into gear. Realistically, I wouldn't expect much more from Dye than .270 anyway. How much longer can they tolerate TWO .200 hitters in the lineup?

[maurice]

There's no reason to think that Rowand can't post several .290 AVE / 20 HR / 20 SB seasons over the rest of his career. I'd be just fine if Anderson matched that kind of production, in addition to solid play in CF (though .300+ AVE / 30+ HR would be nice also).

[maurice]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

As bad as Konerko has looked, he's . . . on pace for . . . 112 RBI.

He'd be on pace for 200 RBI (and we'd have a few more wins) if he could hit with RiSP. Pods and Iguchi have been awesome in front of Konerko and Everett . . . and now Rowand.

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by maurice

He'd be on pace for 200 RBI (and we'd have a few more wins) if he could hit with RiSP. Pods and Iguchi have been awesome in front of Konerko and Everett . . . and now Rowand.

I'm as frustrated with PK as anyone, but the likelihood is he's going snap out of it and hit better than .200. (How much better I won't hazard a guess.) But at least he's producing something. OTOH, Dye is producing next to nothing. Plus, we have a more nearly major league ready replacement in the minors. How long can we tolerate two .200 hitters in the lineup? At what point do they bring up Anderson and see what he can do?

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

How long can we tolerate two .200 hitters in the lineup? At what point do they bring up Anderson and see what he can do?

I don't know, but Ozzie said he isn't going to bench Pauly...

As for Anderson, when Frank comes back, the situation becomes far more complicated with basically 2 DH's (Frank and Carl) and 4 OF'ers (Rowand/Pods/Dye/Timo and Ozuna makes 6 if you count him)...

Makes for quite the odd combo of bench players, regulars, and semi-regulars. Where the heck does Anderson fit? The only way I see him coming up is if a trade is made.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

As bad as Konerko has looked, he's got a .331 OBP and is on pace for 37 HR and 112 RBI. But Dye has been producing almost nothing. IMO, he'd be a higher priority for replacement, of course assuming he doesn't kick it into gear. Realistically, I wouldn't expect much more from Dye than .270 anyway. How much longer can they tolerate TWO .200 hitters in the lineup?

How much of Konerko's production was before he went into this 4 week long slump?

He's hitting about ~.183 since April 16th! All that coming out of your cleanup spot? GOOD LORD! 87 AB's, 16 hits(2 HR). His May OPS is .674! That's weak out of your 8th hitter, let alone your fourth.

While he has walked at a higher-than-normal rate, he's also K'd 34 times to 25 walks. Keep in mind, walking Paul Konerko is like putting up a road block on the Dan Ryan.


The biggest issue is Paul Konerko is a cog in the middle of the order you have to depend on. You cannot pay someone what he is payed to be the #4 hitter and absolutely disappear for months at a crack. It's patently unacceptable. Dye was a stop-gap replacement in RF until younger players were ready, as they were not deemed to be. Konerko was depended on to be the rock in the heart of the order.

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Randar68

I don't know, but Ozzie said he isn't going to bench Pauly...

As for Anderson, when Frank comes back, the situation becomes far more complicated with basically 2 DH's (Frank and Carl) and 4 OF'ers (Rowand/Pods/Dye/Timo and Ozuna makes 6 if you count him)...

Makes for quite the odd combo of bench players, regulars, and semi-regulars. Where the heck does Anderson fit? The only way I see him coming up is if a trade is made.

I agree. But I don't think you'd pull the trigger on a trade until you were sure Anderson could produce at the major league level. It seems to me the thing to do would be to find a way to bring him up and get him into the lineup on at least a semi-regular basis and see what he can do. Best case, he produces right away, you've got one problem solved and someone becomes trade bait.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

I agree. But I don't think you'd pull the trigger on a trade until you were sure Anderson could produce at the major league level. It seems to me the thing to do would be to find a way to bring him up and get him into the lineup on at least a semi-regular basis and see what he can do. Best case, he produces right away, you've got one problem solved and someone becomes trade bait.

If he can't produce immediately, you also have Carl. You'd have to shift your lineup around to make room for him on a regular basis, as I don't think Pods-Rowand-Carl Left to right is better than Carl-Pods-Rowand...

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Randar68

If he can't produce immediately, you also have Carl. You'd have to shift your lineup around to make room for him on a regular basis, as I don't think Pods-Rowand-Carl Left to right is better than Carl-Pods-Rowand...

All the more reason to bring up Anderson sooner rather than later. It's getting close to the time when they're going to have to start making decisions on mid-season moves, and finding out if he's a viable option is a good first step.

FWIW, I don't disagree with your assessment of Konerko. I just think that Dye is an even bigger drag on the lineup. Plus, IMO it's more likely that Konerko will snap out of it and produce at an acceptable level. Best case, Anderson is productive right away and they trade Dye and Konerko for Helton. (Somehow, even deep pink doesn't do that justice.)

[Daver]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

All the more reason to bring up Anderson sooner rather than later. It's getting close to the time when they're going to have to start making decisions on mid-season moves, and finding out if he's a viable option is a good first step.

FWIW, I don't disagree with your assessment of Konerko. I just think that Dye is an even bigger drag on the lineup. Plus, IMO it's more likely that Konerko will snap out of it and produce at an acceptable level. Best case, Anderson is productive right away and they trade Dye and Konerko for Helton. (Somehow, even deep pink doesn't do that justice.)

I highly doubt Kenny will waste an option year for Anderson when their are 4, and possibly 5 outfielders on the roster right now. You can't get a bag of balls for Dye right know, so if an outfielder is going to figure into a midseason trade it would almost have to be Rowand.

I don't see Kenny doing that.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Daver

I highly doubt Kenny will waste an option year for Anderson when their are 4, and possibly 5 outfielders on the roster right now. You can't get a bag of balls for Dye right know, so if an outfielder is going to figure into a midseason trade it would almost have to be Rowand.

The premise of this pipedream scenario is that Colorado would take Dye's 18 remaining months on contract (in addition to Konerko's expiring deal and whatever prospects and cash) and roll the dice on him instead of sending more cash in a Todd Helton trade.

[Daver]

Originally Posted by Randar68

The premise of this pipedream scenario is that Colorado would take Dye's 18 remaining months on contract (in addition to Konerko's expiring deal and whatever prospects and cash) and roll the dice on him instead of sending more cash in a Todd Helton trade.

Geez.

Did someone give the Rockies GM job to Danny Evans?

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Daver

Geez.

Did someone give the Rockies GM job to Danny Evans?

They did trade Juan Uribe for the Human Fire Hydrant... LOL!

Seriously though, this is just a minor league/major league speculation thread all the way around. But it's without the real stupid interjections! (although it lacks deeppink in quite a few posts, LOL)

[A. Cavatica]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Helton's numbers would decline going from Coors to one of the 3 other best hitter's parks in baseball?

How's that?

Nobody is eager to trade any of the top prospects, mind you, but Helton, other than his contract is a VERY good if not great hitter.

His 3-year home-away splits:
Home: .380-62-197 (.480 OBP and 1.181 OPS)
Away: .310-33-125 (.422 OBP and .939 OPS)

I don't know about anyone else, but compared to Konerko, Mr. 6-4-3 rally-killer, Mr. Base clogger, and Mr. half-season, he's worth the difference in salary even if he ONLY puts up his road numbers, which is the low end considering The Cell is almost equivalent to Coors.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to swap Konerko and Dye for Helton. We need a lefthanded stick, we need OBP, and we sure don't need a couple of expensive .200 hitters.

I'm concerned that Helton has played his entire career in Colorado, and the difference between Coors and USCF is a big one. I didn't do any sophisticated analysis, I just scanned the park factor stats quickly, but I would expect his home runs to drop slightly, his singles to drop more, and his doubles, triples, and overall production to drop precipitously.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

I'll also admit that I didn't give Helton nearly enough credit. I thought I knew how good a hitter he is, but when I looked at his career stats, they just blew me away. I didn't realize he'd hit 40+ homers twice; I didn't realize his career OBP was .432. He's like a lefthanded, Coors-aided Big Hurt, and he'd be a big improvement over PK even if PK started hitting again.

I also didn't realize he's only 31.

So sign me up for the Helton bandwagon. The package has got to start with Konerko for salary reasons; I'd be willing to include Rowand and one frontline prospect (anyone but B-Mac) if we could get him at an affordable price.