Questions for Scouting Experts Only

[Frater Perdurabo]

I'm posting this here because I want to focus on Sox prospects, not the veteran talent the Sox might want to acquire in June or July. I also want to avoid the suggestions of the "jeremyb1-esque" observers who think all or certain Sox prospects are Hall of Fame locks and instead get the objective comments of those who know the Sox farm system well.

Let's say the Sox want to get the best talent available to help them make a World Series run. Let's say Aubrey Huff and/or Roger Clemens (ignore for this moment his statements about teams he is or is not willing to join) are available and moreover have expressed a willigness to come here. We know the Astros or D-Rays would ask for the moon in return, and then drop their demands to Anderson, McCarthy, Sweeney and Gonzalez. Kenny will then have to counter-offer, and hopefully they and Kenny will come to a happy medium.

So, Randar, Daver, Rex, Chisoxfn, maurice, et. al., I ask you these questions:

1. Imagine you are Kenny's Director of Minor League operations. He needs your best advice. Based on your knowledge of their skills, ceilings, and probabilities of reaching their potentials, which White Sox prospects would you be willing to deal for Huff or Clemens? Why?

2. Now, step out of that imagined role and back into reality: What's the happy medium in such a deal? Which White Sox minor leage prospects are Kenny most likely to trade in such a proposed mid-season deal for a player of the calber of Huff or Clemens? Why?

I'm really interested in your honest opinions, analysis and arguments. Otherwise I wouldn't ask.

[hose]

http://www.futuresox.com/

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo

1. Imagine you are Kenny's Director of Minor League operations. He needs your best advice. Based on your knowledge of their skills, ceilings, and probabilities of reaching their potentials, which White Sox prospects would you be willing to deal for Huff or Clemens? Why?

2. Now, step out of that imagined role and back into reality: What's the happy medium in such a deal? Which White Sox minor leage prospects are Kenny most likely to trade in such a proposed mid-season deal for a player of the calber of Huff or Clemens? Why?

Well, it really depends. Huff will command nowhere near what Clemens will, yet Clemens is a rent-a-player if he is dealt.

1) I'd only deal McCarthy if an ace-quality pitcher was involved coming our way on a multi-year basis.

Huff? I think some here overvalue him a bit, but I'm not sure I'd go higher than Rogo/Tracey/Diaz/Spidale type players.

I really don't know how to answer your question effectively. Personally, I like the way the team is built with veterans signed to multi-year short-term deals. If we trade away all our top prospects now, we won't have anyone ready to step in 2 years from now when they are all gone.

I know Kenny supposedly has money to toy with if he needs it, and that should help lessen the level of prospects we would have to give up in most deals if we absorbed the $$$-hit. Short of injury or a top-notch stud closer, I just don't see glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed with the kind of talent that would require giving up that kind of prospect. There aren't any GLARING holes in the lineup other than Pauly/Dye right now, but both can't (God I hope) keep hitting like they have been.

On the flip side, if you can get Colorado to throw in some considerable cash into a Todd Helton Deal, I'd be willing to part with some of the higher-level prospects. JMO, but he's a perfect fit in the middle of our order and the #3 hole...

Helton for Konerko (and his 8 million+ salary) and Ryan Sweeney?

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Helton for Konerko (and his 8 million+ salary) and Ryan Sweeney?

Randar - this deal has been my #1 hope for a while now. Helton's a perfect fit, and from what I've heard, he's a good team/clubhouse guy as well. Is this at all realistic given his contract?

If so, I'd go as far as Sweeney and a Tracey/Liotta type of guy (and they can have Konerko).

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

Randar - this deal has been my #1 hope for a while now. Helton's a perfect fit, and from what I've heard, he's a good team/clubhouse guy as well. Is this at all realistic given his contract?

If so, I'd go as far as Sweeney and a Tracey/Liotta type of guy (and they can have Konerko).

The problem is, his contract is absolutely ridiculous, including a complete no-trade-clause and his salary escalates to 16+ million for the next 5 or 6 years, with the final garaunteed year at almost 20 million and a team option for 23 million in a year in which he'll be something like 37 or 38 years old?

Colorado is probably going to be happy to get the money off their books if they can, but if the Sox have the prospects to make it worth having them pay a hefty chunk if they're willing. His contract makes it almost impossible to trade him with or without the no-trade clause.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Randar68

The problem is, his contract is absolutely ridiculous, including a complete no-trade-clause and his salary escalates to 16+ million for the next 5 or 6 years, with the final garaunteed year at almost 20 million and a team option for 23 million in a year in which he'll be something like 37 or 38 years old?

Colorado is probably going to be happy to get the money off their books if they can, but if the Sox have the prospects to make it worth having them pay a hefty chunk if they're willing. His contract makes it almost impossible to trade him with or without the no-trade clause.

That's the issue. The question is whether both sides would find say Konerko+Sweeney+Liotta+Borchard for Helton+$30mil palatable. Helton's annual salaries come down to $11 mil/yr through 2010 and $14 mil in 2011. That's only 2-3mil more than Paulie's making this year. As Helton ages, he can move to DH and replace Frank when he retires in say 3-4 years.

The problem is that that requires the Sox to commit to increasing payroll another 10-15mil for at least a year or 2. That might be doable given the makeup of this team and the fact that KW can point to winning and attendance boosts this year and last year prior to injury hitting. If he can work that, I have to believe Colorado would do that - it's a pretty nice haul for them to go along with payroll reduction.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

That's the issue. The question is whether both sides would find say Konerko+Sweeney+Liotta+Borchard for Helton+$30mil palatable. Helton's annual salaries come down to $11 mil/yr through 2010 and $14 mil in 2011. That's only 2-3mil more than Paulie's making this year. As Helton ages, he can move to DH and replace Frank when he retires in say 3-4 years.

The problem is that that requires the Sox to commit to increasing payroll another 10-15mil for at least a year or 2. That might be doable given the makeup of this team and the fact that KW can point to winning and attendance boosts this year and last year prior to injury hitting. If he can work that, I have to believe Colorado would do that - it's a pretty nice haul for them to go along with payroll reduction.

Frankly, I'd rather give up Tracey/Diaz/Malone/etc than Liotta, but I agree with that, it could be a good deal. Borchard in Coors? Might be worth the price of admission just to see if he can run into one, LOL!

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Frankly, I'd rather give up Tracey/Diaz/Malone/etc than Liotta, but I agree with that, it could be a good deal. Borchard in Coors? Might be worth the price of admission just to see if he can run into one, LOL!

Yeah, Colorado's one team I could see finding decent value in Joe. He could hit 40 there and still only bat .210!

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

That's the issue. The question is whether both sides would find say Konerko+Sweeney+Liotta+Borchard for Helton+$30mil palatable. Helton's annual salaries come down to $11 mil/yr through 2010 and $14 mil in 2011. That's only 2-3mil more than Paulie's making this year. As Helton ages, he can move to DH and replace Frank when he retires in say 3-4 years.

The problem is that that requires the Sox to commit to increasing payroll another 10-15mil for at least a year or 2. That might be doable given the makeup of this team and the fact that KW can point to winning and attendance boosts this year and last year prior to injury hitting. If he can work that, I have to believe Colorado would do that - it's a pretty nice haul for them to go along with payroll reduction.

IMO, the problem with Helton's contract is years more than dollars. Committing that kind of money for a year or two is one thing, but until 2011?

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

IMO, the problem with Helton's contract is years more than dollars. Committing that kind of money for a year or two is one thing, but until 2011?

Look at it this way: barring a 2003-like year, resigning Paulie is probably going to take at least a 4-year deal. That'll take you through 2010 and cost 8-10mil. Signing any comparable replacement will be similar unless you want to go for more of a journeyman guy like Kevin Millar.

Instead, for another year and a few mil more/yr, you get Todd Helton. You also get some pretty big returns at the gate by adding a big name and significantly enhance your chances of making the playoffs and winning a title. You also have a name guy to center your offense (and marketing) on for a few more years. Short of getting a Clemens-type of pitcher, I don't know that there's a bigger impact guy out there.

About the only possible bigger one would be a true closer like Wagner. But if Hermanson continues to dominate, that might not even be that much of an issue.

[Ol' No. 2]

Originally Posted by Flight #24

Look at it this way: barring a 2003-like year, resigning Paulie is probably going to take at least a 4-year deal. That'll take you through 2010 and cost 8-10mil. Signing any comparable replacement will be similar unless you want to go for more of a journeyman guy like Kevin Millar.

Instead, for another year and a few mil more/yr, you get Todd Helton. You also get some pretty big returns at the gate by adding a big name and significantly enhance your chances of making the playoffs and winning a title. You also have a name guy to center your offense (and marketing) on for a few more years. Short of getting a Clemens-type of pitcher, I don't know that there's a bigger impact guy out there.

About the only possible bigger one would be a true closer like Wagner. But if Hermanson continues to dominate, that might not even be that much of an issue.

If it takes a 4 year deal to re-sign PK, then you're right, but I wouldn't offer a 4-year deal, and I'm not convinced that's what it will take. Three years at $8-10M is half the cost of 5 years at $11-14M. If Colorado would pony up the difference, fine, but that would be some kind of record, and I doubt they'd come anywhere close. Even if they tossed in $10M, that would still leave $50M on the books. I wouldn't do it, and I KNOW JR won't.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Ol' No. 2

If it takes a 4 year deal to re-sign PK, then you're right, but I wouldn't offer a 4-year deal, and I'm not convinced that's what it will take. Three years at $8-10M is half the cost of 5 years at $11-14M. If Colorado would pony up the difference, fine, but that would be some kind of record, and I doubt they'd come anywhere close. Even if they tossed in $10M, that would still leave $50M on the books. I wouldn't do it, and I KNOW JR won't.

Your comparison is a bit of apples & oranges since you don't include the cost of a PK replacement after your 3 year deal expires. Not to mention the vast difference in capabilities between the 2 guys.

If all you get is $10mil, then I agree - no way. But I don't believe the Rockies can expect to do that little and get back anything remotely valuable in return. To get rid of Mike Hampton and his ridiculous deal, they took on $52mil in Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson. So maybe $30mil to get one top-caliber prospect, a couple of good ones, and one guy with upside (Borchard) isn't all that farfetched. Sox payroll goes up by $3mil/yr until 2011 as compared to signing PK and an eventual replacement. I'd bet they make that back pretty easily between wins and PR.

Now I don't think it's likely, because the sheer numbers are likely to make management balk. But I do think a deal like this could be structured to be palatable to both sides. And you know KW isn't thinking "I need to add a bench/platoon bat", he's thinking frontline player.

I thought this last year, and I think it again - this is an opportune moment to make some real headway. The team is winning and is well-constructed. The city's beginning to take notice. And the Cubs are fallign apart. All are leading to increased attendance and revenues. Make a big move ala Freddy last year, and barring catastrophic injuries (ala 2004), you can do a lot to turn a mid-market team into a large market team.

[Daver]

Paul's replacement is playing in Birmingham, his name is Casey Rogowski.

I don't know that Paul will even be offered arbitration after the season if he does not sign a new contract before that for considerably less money than he is making now.

[Frater Perdurabo]

Originally Posted by Randar68

On the flip side, if you can get Colorado to throw in some considerable cash into a Todd Helton Deal, I'd be willing to part with some of the higher-level prospects. JMO, but he's a perfect fit in the middle of our order and the #3 hole...

Helton for Konerko (and his 8 million+ salary) and Ryan Sweeney?

A top 4 of Pods-Iguchi-Helton-Frank would be downright scary-good.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Daver

Paul's replacement is playing in Birmingham, his name is Casey Rogowski.

I don't know that Paul will even be offered arbitration after the season if he does not sign a new contract before that for considerably less money than he is making now.

I don't know that the organization has a lot of faith in him, although I do think he changed a few opinions with his play last year.