Projected MLB ETAs on top Sox prospects?

[Frater Perdurabo]

Randar, Rex, Maurice, Daver, et. al. (my apologies if I left someone else off the list!),

Before the 2004 season, there was a great WSI front page feature article about the Top 10 Sox prospects. Was there a similar story this year? I know each of you have many other responsiblities (including outside of WSI ), but I wanted each of you to know how much I personally appreciated it - as well as your ongoing efforts to keep everyone else up to speed on the Sox minor league system. Was there a similar article this past offseason? If so, I missed it and would appreciate a link. But if there wasn't, may I make a request?

We all know that predicting prospects' performance at the MLB level often is a crapshoot. However, based on what you have observed/read/know about the following, what are your "best guesses" on when these players might be ready to make the jump to the majors (momentarily ignoring who the Sox have on the roster right now at a particular position), comparable current MLB players, and the probability of each of them reaching their potential. For example, last year around this time in response to my question, Randar wrote something like "Anderson has a higher ceiling than Reed, but is less likely to reach it than Reed is to reach his ceiling." I love that kind of comparative analysis! (Randar, forgive me if I've misrepresented your statement). Anyway, here are the players I particularly am interested in learning more about:

McCarthy
Anderson
Sweeney
Valido
Fields ("that" Fields, not the "other" Fields )
Gonzalez
Rogowski
Liotta
Thank you again! This is the kind of stuff that makes WSI great!

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo

McCarthy
Anderson
Sweeney
Valido
Fields ("that" Fields, not the "other" Fields )
Gonzalez
Rogowski
Liotta

When will they be ready? I'll order them based on when I think they'll be ready to stick at the MLB level...

McCarthy - Anytime they need him

Anderson - See McCarthy, Brandon

Fields - Josh Fields could be ready start of 2006, but if Crede continues to produce, I don't know what they would do. They could move Josh to 1st base or trade one of them. I don't know how much a full season in AAA will really help Josh.

Sweeney - if he can stay healthy, he should be ready mid-2006, start of 2007. I'd prefer to get him a lot of at-bats at AA and AAA to see if he can get the confidence to really attack pitches, look for more pitches to drive. He does have power when he is aggressive and attacks the ball, but he sits back in a defensive mode a bit too much for my tastes.

Rogowski - Who knows. The Organization hasn't been all that high on him since he missed 2 years with injuries. Last year he stayed healthy all year but really still doesn't show the power they've been hoping he would eventually produce. He hits the ball hard pretty regularly, but he hits the ball with top-spin most of the time, not the back-spin that creates the carry needed for regular HR-production. He walks a lot and strikes out his fair share, but I saw a real weakness in identifying breaking pitches from MLB-type pitchers in spring training, had seen hints of that last year in W-S. Had a good start at Birmingham, got beaned (in the head IIRC) earlier this week after destroying a catcher on a play at the plate, but should be ok. Teammates that I have talked to really like the guy, he's a bit of a joker, goofball. Earlier in his career was a gold-glove type first-baseman, has regressed a bit the last year or 2, IMO. Could provide Ross Gload type ability with better OF defense. Could play 1st or be a back-up/emergency LF'er. ETA 2006 or bust.

Gonzalez - I assume you mean Gio, not Andy (who has been on an offensive tear to start the year). Gio is very refined for a HS pitcher. What he'll be able to do, and how quickly he adjusts will dictate how quickly he moves. His stuff is there, so it will be more the mental aspect/approach of adjusting to the level of competition at each level, IMO. I know they don't want to rush him or overwork him. Very self-confident kid, could be in AA by season's end based on talent and results, but I think they'll keep him in W-S. Most-likely ETA 2007.

Valido - This one is tough. He had a great first half in 2004 and made the All-Star squad in his first full-season league, but really wore down, hit the wall the second half, and he admitted as much. Humble kid who is a dedicated hard worker. He's had a great start to this season. His defense is there now, just lacking experience and repetition/consistency. Most here know I've always liked this kid, been a big fan of his since draft day. My ETA? mid-2007, start of 2008. I think he's the most talented SS in the system, could see AB's at Birmingham later this year if he keeps up the pace and that could accelerate his ETA a little (maybe early 2007)

Liotta - Good talent. Less-publicized than Gonzalez or some of the college pitchers taken in the last draft. I would put his ETA somewhere in the 2008 range, still 2.5-3 years away, IMO. Hard to project at this point, still pretty premature, IMO for him. He'll stick in Kannapolis longer than Gio, but should see W-S mid-year, probably after the draft some time when college pitchers start filtering into the system.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo

Randar, Rex, Maurice, Daver, et. al. (my apologies if I left someone else off the list!),

Before the 2004 season, there was a great WSI front page feature article about the Top 10 Sox prospects. Was there a similar story this year? I know each of you have many other responsiblities (including outside of WSI ), but I wanted each of you to know how much I personally appreciated it - as well as your ongoing efforts to keep everyone else up to speed on the Sox minor league system. Was there a similar article this past offseason? If so, I missed it and would appreciate a link. But if there wasn't, may I make a request?

Daver and I have done some things in the past, but it takes a ton of time to put together a competent top 10, let alone a well-thought-out top 20 or 30. Last year I helped another sight put together a top 50! That took forever, LOL. Just didn't have the time to do that this year, really.

This board is a better time-diverse way of getting the information out there, IMO. Can spend little bits of time here and there while still getting all the info out there.

[Frater Perdurabo]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Daver and I have done some things in the past, but it takes a ton of time to put together a competent top 10, let alone a well-thought-out top 20 or 30. Last year I helped another sight put together a top 50! That took forever, LOL. Just didn't have the time to do that this year, really.

This board is a better time-diverse way of getting the information out there, IMO. Can spend little bits of time here and there while still getting all the info out there.

Thanks Randar!!!!!

[Fungo]

The thing that sucks looking at those names is that if we stay in the hunt, like I suspect we will, and we have holes to fill at the trade deadline, a few of those names may be making their debuts elsewhere. If we are going to get something good, we are going to have to give up something good in return. Nature of the business, but it sucks seeing some of the guys you've been watching develop over the years move on.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Fungo

The thing that sucks looking at those names is that if we stay in the hunt, like I suspect we will, and we have holes to fill at the trade deadline, a few of those names may be making their debuts elsewhere. If we are going to get something good, we are going to have to give up something good in return. Nature of the business, but it sucks seeing some of the guys you've been watching develop over the years move on.

What holes do we currently have require trading a legit pitching prospect?

I suspect you'll see guys like Spidale, Rogowski, Bajenaru, etc traded long before you'll see Gio, Liotta, or Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Valido going anywhere.

[Fungo]

Originally Posted by Randar68

What holes do we currently have require trading a legit pitching prospect?

I suspect you'll see guys like Spidale, Rogowski, Bajenaru, etc traded long before you'll see Gio, Liotta, or Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Valido going anywhere.

Way too early to tell. I would suspect the names Gio/Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Fields are considered 'untouchable', everyone else would be fair game. El Duque & Contreras health are of concern to me, as is Dye coming back to form and Thomas' return from injury. If you are really gonna go for it, another quality starting pitcher would cost you. I like Garland, but I'm not quite sold yet that he's 'arrived', El Duque's post season results can't be argued with, but there's the health concern and IMO, Contreras is the shakiest of the bunch and I wouldn't trust him in a playoff type atmosphere. Too much pressure.

Still, too early to tell.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Fungo

Way too early to tell. I would suspect the names Gio/Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Fields are considered 'untouchable', everyone else would be fair game. El Duque & Contreras health are of concern to me, as is Dye coming back to form and Thomas' return from injury. If you are really gonna go for it, another quality starting pitcher would cost you. I like Garland, but I'm not quite sold yet that he's 'arrived', El Duque's post season results can't be argued with, but there's the health concern and IMO, Contreras is the shakiest of the bunch and I wouldn't trust him in a playoff type atmosphere. Too much pressure.

Still, too early to tell.

Outside of major injury, I think the only things you may see addressed are a legit utility IF'er who can play SS, and bullpen help. You can never have enough quality bullpen arms.

[Fungo]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Outside of major injury, I think the only things you may see addressed are a legit utility IF'er who can play SS, and bullpen help. You can never have enough quality bullpen arms.

How confident are you to stack up Buehrle/Garcia/Hernandez with Garland as the fourth and Contreras to the bullpen against say for instance the Angels/Red Sox/Yankees/Minnesota in a playoff scenerio? A healthy Hernandez, I love my chances. I guess I'm just worried about him staying healthy. Like I said before, I like Garland, but am not quite convinced yet. Solid, durable #5 to me right now. I love our bullpen, but you are correct, you can never have too much.

Forgive me for bringing up the play*** word. Hard not to get excited with the way things have started.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Fungo

Forgive me for bringing up the play*** word. Hard not to get excited with the way things have started.

Well, they played like a drunk 16" beer-league team last night, so that was a bit of cold water on my face.

Crede as your starting SS raises some serious concerns, LOL!

[Chisoxfn]

Originally Posted by Randar68

What holes do we currently have require trading a legit pitching prospect?

I suspect you'll see guys like Spidale, Rogowski, Bajenaru, etc traded long before you'll see Gio, Liotta, or Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Valido going anywhere.

What will make things tough is when an organization has good prospects opposing GM's will hold out for those prospects. Its something thats really hurt the Angels the past couple years come the deadline. Everyone wants Kochman, Santana, McPherson, and their catcher and refuses to give up good taletn without getting it or so it seems.

But I'm still in shock at some of the offensie explosions (Agonz, Amador, etc) and wowzers has the pitching been fabulous.

[jabrch]

Originally Posted by Randar68

What holes do we currently have require trading a legit pitching prospect?

I suspect you'll see guys like Spidale, Rogowski, Bajenaru, etc traded long before you'll see Gio, Liotta, or Sweeney/BMac/Anderson/Valido going anywhere.

I wouldn't say we have any "holes" that would need filling. However, if we get toward the trade deadline and a legitimate STUD is available that would put us in a better position, that might be something we need to look at. I'm thinking about an Aubrey Huff type option if Dye doesn't pick it up, Frank doesn't come back in a timely manner or at full strength and Everett isn't a full time option in RF. We don't have a "hole" in RF as we have options (even down to Gload/Timo and options in the minors including LTP) but we surely could get better. Same at pitching - let's say a guy like Clemens wants out to go to a contender. Do we need another starter? No... But would you give up a prospect or two to add Roger at the deadline? I think it would be foolish not to. Duque or Contreras both have experience working from the pen and could do that easily - or they could always be shipped out somewhere for a prospect to replace whomever we'd give up for a top flight starter.

Having a farm system with options to trade is nice. Look how the Yanks propped up their team for so many years - by making moves to trade away anything of value to get players when they were available (and spending a boatload of $$$). That said, if we don't make moves, it is nice to know we have some options at positions for the short term future and the long term future.

Buehrle, Freddy, JG, BMac, and a Cuban in 2006?
Buehrle, Freddy, JG, BMac, and Gio in 2007?

That could be a really really good staff if things go right.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by jabrch

Buehrle, Freddy, JG, BMac, and a Cuban in 2006?
Buehrle, Freddy, JG, BMac, and Gio in 2007?

That could be a really really good staff if things go right.

Are Buehrle, Freddy, JG all signed through 2007?

[MRKARNO]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

Are Buehrle, Freddy, JG all signed through 2007?

Freddy, yes. Buehrle has an '07 option. Garland's last arb year is 2006.

[Daver]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Daver and I have done some things in the past, but it takes a ton of time to put together a competent top 10, let alone a well-thought-out top 20 or 30. Last year I helped another sight put together a top 50! That took forever, LOL. Just didn't have the time to do that this year, really.

This board is a better time-diverse way of getting the information out there, IMO. Can spend little bits of time here and there while still getting all the info out there.

Bingo.

I have very little free time nowadays, aside from my regular job I have also re-started my part time business, which is very time consuming.

I'm lucky if I can find the time to check the minor league box scores once or twice a week.