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  #16  
Old 03-02-2005, 11:16 PM
trailboss trailboss is offline
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Baseball America rankings are based on money. This makes them popular with baseball people who don't want to look stupid for giving millions to 18 year olds. If you got a million dollars, you have to go out and prove you can't play. If you got peanuts, you have to go out and prove you can.Brandon is a 17th round pick with tremendous production. Baseball America says #49. FoxSports says #14. BA looks at bonus. FoxSports looks at productivity.
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  #17  
Old 03-02-2005, 11:23 PM
OEO Magglio OEO Magglio is offline
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Randar, correct me if I'm wrong on this. I think BA looks at production and also how much potential and talent each of these players have. While others like foxsports might primarily look at productivity. Like I said before if the rankings were based alone on how each individual has produced so far, Brandon would be way higher.
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  #18  
Old 03-03-2005, 10:11 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OEO Magglio
Randar, correct me if I'm wrong on this. I think BA looks at production and also how much potential and talent each of these players have. While others like foxsports might primarily look at productivity. Like I said before if the rankings were based alone on how each individual has produced so far, Brandon would be way higher.
BA is primarily about scouting and projection. As with any scouting, they tend to have their favorites despite statistical or production evidence to the contrary, etc etc.

They do generally seem to consider production, but they don't give it much credence in most cases until it is done in AA at least.


That post by trailboss is utterly ridiculous.
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  #19  
Old 03-03-2005, 10:23 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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I've always found BA to have 2 major faults.

#1, when they evaluate pitchers they fall in love with the radar gun readings.
#2, they overrate players from teams that have had recent success developing players.
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  #20  
Old 03-03-2005, 10:54 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi
I've always found BA to have 2 major faults.

#1, when they evaluate pitchers they fall in love with the radar gun readings.
#2, they overrate players from teams that have had recent success developing players.
I definitely agree with #1, and in doing so, they most often fail to truly analyze the mechanics of said pitchers...

#2? I'm not terribly sure that is the case, but I can see how one might see that.

Like any scouting service, they identify favorites prior to drafts and in college and HS games and tend to have a hard time moving them down in relation to guys they didn't pick up on or were "under the radar" types.
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  #21  
Old 03-03-2005, 11:02 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
#2? I'm not terribly sure that is the case, but I can see how one might see that.
I base that quite a bit off what happened in 2001 and 2002. After our success and some Flubbie success, unworthy players were needlessly pushed up the charts at BA.
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  #22  
Old 03-03-2005, 11:16 AM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
Ahhh, number crunching a kid who basically went straight to High A out of Iowa HS...

Nothing like a good stat-head evaluating 19 year olds in High A...
I expect as much form you. I guess we just have to believe the scouts who said Borchard was the second coming of Mantle. Instead of looking at other players have done at age 19 in A ball and their success level in the majors. I mean one method is filled with hope and dreams while the other doesn't look to good. I am not condemning him, just pointing out that it is something to be concerned about.
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  #23  
Old 03-03-2005, 11:18 AM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
Like any scouting service, they identify favorites prior to drafts and in college and HS games and tend to have a hard time moving them down in relation to guys they didn't pick up on or were "under the radar" types.
Whereas production analyst is based on what a players does not where they came from nor what you personally thought of them.
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  #24  
Old 03-03-2005, 11:38 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
I am not condemning him, just pointing out that it is something to be concerned about.
I think there are 2 things you are overlooking in respects to Sweeney. One big thing is his age in respect to what level he played at. There are very, very few 19 year olds that play in the Carolina League. It's very rare for a kid that age to get pushed up to that level. The fact that he played as well as he did is extremely encouraging.

Secondly, I've found most scouts to believe that power is not something to be concerned about at the lower level of the minors. There have been many players who start off at 19/20 who just grow into their bodies and develop power. Occaisionally you will have a freak of nature like Griffey or A-Rod tear it up at 18/19, but they are the exception rather than the rule.
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  #25  
Old 03-03-2005, 12:21 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
Whereas production analyst is based on what a players does not where they came from nor what you personally thought of them.
And disregards age, experience, history, persona, determination to improve, mentality, mechanics, and athletic ability.

Don't get me started. You can attack Borch and many other players over the years, but if you think statistical analysis can porvide a better analysis and has any bearing whatsoever when it comes to evaluating 18, 19, 20, and 21 year old's ability to play in the major leagues, you're too far removed from the field at your desk.
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  #26  
Old 03-03-2005, 12:23 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
Whereas production analyst is based on what a players does not where they came from nor what you personally thought of them.
Does a top 100 list mean anything, Dawg? Who cares, really, it's not what teams use other than as bargaining chips... Who really cares if a scouting service favors players they've known about a long time over newcomers?

How in the hell does that validate statistical analysis. Your arguments are so shallow...
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  #27  
Old 03-03-2005, 12:26 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
Instead of looking at other players have done at age 19 in A ball and their success level in the majors. I mean one method is filled with hope and dreams while the other doesn't look to good. I am not condemning him, just pointing out that it is something to be concerned about.
Your comments are uneducated in nature and instigating in purpose. I'll be waiting for your advanced statistical analysis of 19 year-olds track rocords from High A to the majors...

*not holding my breath*

Meanwhile, Sweeney goes 2-for-2 yesterday in the first Spring Game against higher-level pitching than he's faced during any regular season action...

Color me "unconcerned" while you get yourself worked up for no reason...
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  #28  
Old 03-03-2005, 01:10 PM
trailboss trailboss is offline
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'Scuse us!!

Evidence and confirmation to the contrary, you keep your opinion.
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  #29  
Old 03-03-2005, 01:49 PM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi
I think there are 2 things you are overlooking in respects to Sweeney. One big thing is his age in respect to what level he played at. There are very, very few 19 year olds that play in the Carolina League. It's very rare for a kid that age to get pushed up to that level. The fact that he played as well as he did is extremely encouraging.

Secondly, I've found most scouts to believe that power is not something to be concerned about at the lower level of the minors. There have been many players who start off at 19/20 who just grow into their bodies and develop power. Occaisionally you will have a freak of nature like Griffey or A-Rod tear it up at 18/19, but they are the exception rather than the rule.
The thing is Sweeney's ISO power was lower then what you normally see. I wouldn't be concerned if it was .20 higher. You expect a guy to grow into more power but the concern is does his current performance show a lower celling. Some scouting report mention he has a slower bat so that might be playing into his low power numbers.
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  #30  
Old 03-03-2005, 01:51 PM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
And disregards age, experience, history, persona, determination to improve, mentality, mechanics, and athletic ability.

Don't get me started. You can attack Borch and many other players over the years, but if you think statistical analysis can porvide a better analysis and has any bearing whatsoever when it comes to evaluating 18, 19, 20, and 21 year old's ability to play in the major leagues, you're too far removed from the field at your desk.
Want to know the best way to figure out who is going to be a good player in the MLB. Look at their production, in general those who produce in the minors produce in the majors and those who don't, don't. It is that simple. You want to make it more complex, go head, but someone just looking at the numbers will have a better percentage of picking MLBers in the minors.
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