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  #1  
Old 11-04-2004, 08:53 AM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Default Is Beltran the answer?

Nice to read in the paper that the Sox are 1. going to pursue Beltran and Vizquel and 2. look to raise payroll, even if it's not enough for some.

So before there are any more pipe dream colored threads projecting a line up of Beltran and Vizquel or whoever, a few issues need to be addressed.

First, what is the biggest hole on this team?

To me it's getting a good starting pitcher to fill the 5th starters role. The team's second biggest hole is a 2B/SS. After that a couple of good relievers would be nice. After that I would put getting an OF.

How much is Carlos Beltran worth?

There's talk of a 10 year contract and him asking $18-20 mill per year. Granted it's Boras tring to get negotiations going, but it will at least take a 7 year deal in the $15-17 mill. range.

So before we get the standard reply of whatever the market bears, realize most teams will go into negotiations knowing what they can afford and negotiate based off that. So hopefully KW has a plan when he goes to negotiate. How much is he really worth to this team. This ties in with the next question:

If the Sox got Beltran and Vizquel and did nothing else that was major, do you think this team would win?

Vizquel is an upgrade over Valentin. And Beltran replaces Ordonez with more offense. And there's a good chance that after those 2 signings the team won't have much money to spend elsewhere. But it still doesn't solve the pitching problems.

IMHO, while getting Beltran would be nice, it hardly solves the bigger problems of this team. Unless there's a plan to address those, I think signing Beltran is a mistake.



Bob
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  #2  
Old 11-04-2004, 09:06 AM
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samram samram is offline
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I think it's a mistake also if the fifth starter position is not addressed since even with Maggs the team had trouble winning when the fifth starter pitched. If they decide to do both, Beltran's value is very high to the team because he makes a good team very good. OTOH, if the other holes aren't filled, his presence won't make enough of a difference to justify signing him. I guess what I'm saying is his value to the Sox becomes greater as the team fills other holes, but OF is probably fourth on the list of priorities. If they filled the fifth starter spot with someone competent (or added a top starter pushing Garland back to the fifth spot), strengthened the BP, and found an actual lead-off hitter, I could live with J.D. Drew or Jose Guillen (if a trade could be worked) in RF, but Beltran would be icing on the cake in that scenario.
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  #3  
Old 11-04-2004, 09:15 AM
SoxFanTillDeath SoxFanTillDeath is offline
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This has all been rehashed a million times, but just for the record, I agree with both of you. I don't believe we are solid enough to allocate that much money to one single player. If we were able to fill the other holes first, and then get Beltran, that would be perfect.

The question you have to ask yourself: Is Carlos Beltran worth J.D. Drew AND Carl Pavano/Derek Lowe?
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  #4  
Old 11-04-2004, 09:56 AM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoxFanTillDeath
This has all been rehashed a million times, but just for the record, I agree with both of you. I don't believe we are solid enough to allocate that much money to one single player. If we were able to fill the other holes first, and then get Beltran, that would be perfect.

The question you have to ask yourself: Is Carlos Beltran worth J.D. Drew AND Carl Pavano/Derek Lowe?
I know it's been talked about but it brings bringing up again for a couple of reasons. First, with the news of an increase in payroll it may change some opinions. Second, it's good to see what other fans are thinking (at least those that are willing to say this is a good/bad move). Third, it's a welcome break from the JR is cheap threads.

Last, on the outside chance that anyone from the Sox (specifically KW) reads WSI. It's good to remind them of the big picture. It's all warm and fuzzy to talk about getting an All Star CFer and making the big splash, or to go after Randy Johnson, but it doesn't amount to anything if the team is just trying to create a PR buzz. Even if Beltran or Johnson wind up here (which is a long shot) the team still has many holes that need to be filled. One of the faults with KW is he's always looking to make the big move to prove he's a BSD. And that's great to be aggressive. But it takes a lot mroe then just one star player to put this team over the top and those other holes shouldn't be ignored. And KW needs to realize and remember not forget that the goal is to build a WS team and this team is more then one player away.

Like you say, it's a better idea to fill some of the bigger gaping holes with the Beltran money then it is to simply raise payroll, sign Beltran, generate some PR and call it an offseason.

KW needs to thing through all the scenarios and start acting proactively here.



Bob
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  #5  
Old 11-04-2004, 09:57 AM
Mickster Mickster is offline
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You also have to ask yourselves, from a marketing standpoint, who the Sox have to market.... For 15 years, it has been Frank Thomas. Since 98, it has been Frank and Maggs. After 2005, when Frank is finally gone (I think that they will pay the $3.5M team option to break the contract) who will the Sox have to market?

Not that I necessarily agree that they need at least 1 marquis player to market, but this flawed thinking might make the Sox push for Beltran. The report that I heard on the radio this morning was essentially: get Beltran, deal Konerko....
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Old 11-04-2004, 09:59 AM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mickster
You also have to ask yourselves, from a marketing standpoint, who the Sox have to market.... For 15 years, it has been Frank Thomas. Since 98, it has been Frank and Maggs. After 2005, when frank is Finally gone (I think that they will pay the $3.5M team option to break the contract) who will the Sox have to market?

Not that I necessarily agree that they need at least 1 marquis player to market, but this flawed thinking might make the Sox push for Beltran. The report that I heard on the radio this morning was essentially: get Beltran, deal Konerko....
I prefer the deal Konerko, shore up the pitching by signing a good starting pitcher and 2 relievers thinking.


Bob
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  #7  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:00 AM
Mickster Mickster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gosox41
I prefer the deal Konerko, shore up the pitching by signing a good starting pitcher and 2 relievers thinking.


Bob
If the payroll truly will only be $70-75M, I agree with you completely. That is tough for me to say because I would really love to see Beltran patrolling CF for the Sox for a long time....
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  #8  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:03 AM
Hangar18 Hangar18 is offline
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On a team with Little Speed, and losing a .300/30HR/100 RBI guy (they dont come around too often, esp ones your team produced thru the farm system)
HECK YES, Beltran is the answer. You dont Let a .300/30HR/100 RBI guy
just leave, and take a chance with a minor leaguer, and hope he pans out .....
thats not how Winning Teams operate.
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  #9  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:05 AM
Hangar18 Hangar18 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mickster
get Beltran, deal Konerko....
Rob Peter to Pay Paul (not Konerko) heh heh.
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  #10  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gosox41
I prefer the deal Konerko, shore up the pitching by signing a good starting pitcher and 2 relievers thinking.


Bob
Yep, and I wouldn't mind something more certain in terms of a lead-off hitter. The candidates on the team right now don't thrill me.
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  #11  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:27 AM
wdelaney72 wdelaney72 is offline
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Our outfield is already set. We have C. Lee, Rowand, and Crazy Carl (like it or not, we're stuck with his $4 million salary). If we were to sign Beltran, C. Lee would have to get traded, which I don't like. Our pitching staff needs help more than our outfield does.

I love Beltran, but to answer the question,

"NO".
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  #12  
Old 11-04-2004, 10:37 AM
mdep524 mdep524 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mickster
You also have to ask yourselves, from a marketing standpoint, who the Sox have to market.... For 15 years, it has been Frank Thomas. Since 98, it has been Frank and Maggs. After 2005, when Frank is finally gone (I think that they will pay the $3.5M team option to break the contract) who will the Sox have to market?

Not that I necessarily agree that they need at least 1 marquis player to market, but this flawed thinking might make the Sox push for Beltran. The report that I heard on the radio this morning was essentially: get Beltran, deal Konerko....
Good point, Mickster. This certainly should NOT be the deciding factor in signing a Carlos Beltran to big money, but I do think it plays a role. Generating large scale excitement and national marketing opportunities would be a big plus for this organization. It would increase revenue, attendance and status- setting trends that could lead to higher payroll and higher expectations down the road.

Could the Sox win it all with Beltran in '05? Maybe, maybe not. But if they are competitive they would sure do a lot toward furthering a winning culture. Say they pass on Beltran and sign Vizquel, Eric Milton and Steve Kline instead. Will they win with those pick ups-mediocre players that fill a bigger hole on the team? Maybe, maybe not. But if they don't, they're right back to the drawing board in the offseason, and nothing has really changed structurally. Beltran is the kind of guy that can trigger a macro-style change, and this organization could use a catalyst like that. Just something to bring into consideration.
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  #13  
Old 11-04-2004, 11:15 AM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdep524
Beltran is the kind of guy that can trigger a macro-style change, and this organization could use a catalyst like that. Just something to bring into consideration.
That to me is the point in a Beltran signing. he does help this year, but there are arguably ways in which you can do that more effectively by spreading around the available resources. What Carlos does that you can't do as well with the alternate approach is give you a building block that you can restructure your nucleus around. I think a team nucleus of Garcia-Buehrle-Contreras-Garland-Marte-Shingo-Carlos-ARow-Beltran-Frank-Uribe CAN be a real contender in 2005, but would probably need some pitching additions during the season. However, with Beltran, you're adding in a long-term franchise player that you can rebuild around if things don't work out in 2005. I'm not sure that adding Drew & Pavano is as effective in terms of long-term franchise development.

Plus from a PR perspective, there's no comparison. And like it or not, the Sox DO have to be worried about PR in this town at this time. For them, generating buzz & excitement is crucial.
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Old 11-04-2004, 11:19 AM
MisterB MisterB is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdep524
Good point, Mickster. This certainly should NOT be the deciding factor in signing a Carlos Beltran to big money, but I do think it plays a role. Generating large scale excitement and national marketing opportunities would be a big plus for this organization. It would increase revenue, attendance and status- setting trends that could lead to higher payroll and higher expectations down the road.

Could the Sox win it all with Beltran in '05? Maybe, maybe not. But if they are competitive they would sure do a lot toward furthering a winning culture. Say they pass on Beltran and sign Vizquel, Eric Milton and Steve Kline instead. Will they win with those pick ups-mediocre players that fill a bigger hole on the team? Maybe, maybe not. But if they don't, they're right back to the drawing board in the offseason, and nothing has really changed structurally. Beltran is the kind of guy that can trigger a macro-style change, and this organization could use a catalyst like that. Just something to bring into consideration.
No matter how much 'buzz' would be created by signing Beltran, if the Sox don't perform it won't mean squat. The Colon deal created a buzz in '03, but when the team fell apart, it ultimately led the Sox back to square one. Same thing with David Wells. Same thing with Albert Belle. I can't really see the Sox being significantly better with Beltran in the lineup than they were with a healthy Ordonez. There'd still be no one to get on base ahead of Beltran, a void at the back of the rotation, and a thin bullpen. The only way the Sox get anywhere is filling ALL their holes, not by putting a bigger pile of dirt in just one of them.
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Old 11-04-2004, 11:20 AM
Hangar18 Hangar18 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flight #24
Plus from a PR perspective, there's no comparison. And like it or not, the Sox DO have to be worried about PR in this town at this time. For them, generating buzz & excitement is crucial.
" Yeah, thats fine and dandy kids, but this has ALWAYS
been a Cubs town. We can try to get Good Players here, but why ? "
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