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  #31  
Old 07-18-2004, 06:50 PM
Wealz Wealz is offline
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Originally Posted by Randar68
Shaffer needs to go? Those were Laumann draft picks, no? Get your story straight.
Yep, Shaffer needs to go. He was scouting director from 1991-2000. You remember that era don't you Randar68? Among other things Jason Dellearo was taken the pick before Lance Berkman during that time. That was ok though since they had OF depth in the organization at the time right?

Laumann was in charge of the '01, '02, and '03 drafts and drafted Reed, Anderson and Sweeney. Shaffer drafted Borchard. 'Nuff said.
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  #32  
Old 07-18-2004, 07:09 PM
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Daver Daver is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
Yep, Shaffer needs to go. He was scouting director from 1991-2000. You remember that era don't you Randar68? Among other things Jason Dellearo was taken the pick before Lance Berkman during that time. That was ok though since they had OF depth in the organization at the time right?

Laumann was in charge of the '01, '02, and '03 drafts and drafted Reed, Anderson and Sweeney. Shaffer drafted Borchard. 'Nuff said.
Schueller insisted on drafting Dellearo, against Shaffers insistence that he would be available in the fifth round.

Jumbotron Ron did the same thing with Mark Johnson.
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  #33  
Old 07-18-2004, 09:39 PM
jeremyb1 jeremyb1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
Absolutely. Shaffer has a penchant for taking "projectable arms" with premium picks. I guess he's trying to find the next Danny Wright.
Yeah. That drives me nuts. I'm concerned we squandered some of our additional picks in that fashion in the last draft. If you're 22 and you haven't had success in college I'm concerned about your ability to become a Major League player. The sad part is that Wright is the success story of that bunch. Guys like Brian West and Wyatt Allen have fared much more poorly.
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  #34  
Old 07-18-2004, 10:21 PM
SoxxoS SoxxoS is offline
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Originally Posted by jeremyb1
Yeah. That drives me nuts. I'm concerned we squandered some of our additional picks in that fashion in the last draft. If you're 22 and you haven't had success in college I'm concerned about your ability to become a Major League player. The sad part is that Wright is the success story of that bunch. Guys like Brian West and Wyatt Allen have fared much more poorly.
Something in the scouting pitching dept needs to be changed...obviously. Something isn't clicking. Myette, Wright, Ginter, Rauch, West, Allen, Barcelo etc...the most overrated farm system quite possible in MLB history. So much so, BA had us winning the world series in 2004 with an awesome, young rotation.
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  #35  
Old 07-18-2004, 10:29 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
Yep, Shaffer needs to go. He was scouting director from 1991-2000. You remember that era don't you Randar68? Among other things Jason Dellearo was taken the pick before Lance Berkman during that time. That was ok though since they had OF depth in the organization at the time right?

Laumann was in charge of the '01, '02, and '03 drafts and drafted Reed, Anderson and Sweeney. Shaffer drafted Borchard. 'Nuff said.
Yes, i remember that draft, the one where Schueler drafted Dallaero when Shaffer told him he'd be there in the 3rd round if he really wanted him. I also recognize the circumstances surrounding Lance Berkman and only signing as a Senior-to-be because he was drafted by a local team. Shaffer was over-ruled on that pick. What do you want from the man? I prefer Laumann to Shaffer, no doubt, but why cry over spilt milk?
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  #36  
Old 07-18-2004, 10:41 PM
Wealz Wealz is offline
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Originally Posted by jeremyb1
Yeah. That drives me nuts. I'm concerned we squandered some of our additional picks in that fashion in the last draft. If you're 22 and you haven't had success in college I'm concerned about your ability to become a Major League player. The sad part is that Wright is the success story of that bunch. Guys like Brian West and Wyatt Allen have fared much more poorly.
The frustrating thing about this is the organization is not asking "is there a better way?" and continue to waste pick after pick in the process.

Everyone's excited about Gio Gonzalez, I can't remember the last high school pitcher that this group has developed, Baldwin maybe? Before that who knows. If you can't develop pitchers, let other teams develop them for you and concentrate on position players.
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  #37  
Old 07-18-2004, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Wealz
So being rated 29th out of 30 isn't a concern?
The Major League team is in first place right now, so... No.
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  #38  
Old 07-18-2004, 11:27 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
The frustrating thing about this is the organization is not asking "is there a better way?" and continue to waste pick after pick in the process.

Everyone's excited about Gio Gonzalez, I can't remember the last high school pitcher that this group has developed, Baldwin maybe? Before that who knows. If you can't develop pitchers, let other teams develop them for you and concentrate on position players.
Although they didn't draft him, you'd have to admit they developed Garland. Because you've been snake bitten, you can't be gun-shy or hesitant to take who you believe will be the best player when you can. every organization is bitten by injuries or guys who don't meet their physical potential. Even going by stats and performance-based analysis, there are still more misses than hits.
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  #39  
Old 07-18-2004, 11:39 PM
jeremyb1 jeremyb1 is offline
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Originally Posted by SoxxoS
Something in the scouting pitching dept needs to be changed...obviously. Something isn't clicking. Myette, Wright, Ginter, Rauch, West, Allen, Barcelo etc...the most overrated farm system quite possible in MLB history. So much so, BA had us winning the world series in 2004 with an awesome, young rotation.
That class was dissapointing no doubt but you can't expect all prospects to succeed when the overwhelming majority don't. Wells, Garland, Wright, and Buehrle have all made significant contributions and Ginter, Rauch, and Myette have made it to the majors although without much success.
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  #40  
Old 07-19-2004, 05:01 PM
Wealz Wealz is offline
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Originally Posted by Randar68
Although they didn't draft him, you'd have to admit they developed Garland. Because you've been snake bitten, you can't be gun-shy or hesitant to take who you believe will be the best player when you can. every organization is bitten by injuries or guys who don't meet their physical potential. Even going by stats and performance-based analysis, there are still more misses than hits.
I'll give you Garland, but he came at a price that was too good to refuse -- Matt Karchner. Even though he's a success story, I think that you'd have to agree that he's devolped slower than any of us would have liked. I understand he's 24, but with as many major league innings as he has under his belt his career performance has been a mild disappointment to this point.

Have the Sox been snake bitten or is it just the nature of drafting pitchers? Minor league pitchers, pitchers in general, suffer career-threatening injuries at a much, much higher rate than position players. When you draft a pitcher not only do you have to hope they develop well, you have to pray that they don't get hurt. For the most part, you don't have to worry about a career-ending injury with a position player.

I think it would behoove a mid-revenue team like the Sox to use their premium picks every year, say first 6-7 rounds, on position players. Let someone else waste millions of dollars developing pitching for you. For instance, if the Sox had hitters in the minors they could have dealt them to the Expos for Vazquez. Or if one of those hitters could have replaced Ordonez, Ordonez could have been used to get a pitcher. I don't think it's essential to develop pitching, but it is essential to have a strong farm system, and position players are the easiest way to do that IMO
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  #41  
Old 07-19-2004, 06:52 PM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
I'll give you Garland, but he came at a price that was too good to refuse -- Matt Karchner. Even though he's a success story, I think that you'd have to agree that he's devolped slower than any of us would have liked. I understand he's 24, but with as many major league innings as he has under his belt his career performance has been a mild disappointment to this point.

Have the Sox been snake bitten or is it just the nature of drafting pitchers? Minor league pitchers, pitchers in general, suffer career-threatening injuries at a much, much higher rate than position players. When you draft a pitcher not only do you have to hope they develop well, you have to pray that they don't get hurt. For the most part, you don't have to worry about a career-ending injury with a position player.

I think it would behoove a mid-revenue team like the Sox to use their premium picks every year, say first 6-7 rounds, on position players. Let someone else waste millions of dollars developing pitching for you. For instance, if the Sox had hitters in the minors they could have dealt them to the Expos for Vazquez. Or if one of those hitters could have replaced Ordonez, Ordonez could have been used to get a pitcher. I don't think it's essential to develop pitching, but it is essential to have a strong farm system, and position players are the easiest way to do that IMO
I definitely understand that sentiment and it's one of the most frustrating things for organizations as well as fans who follow prospects closely. Do you stop drafting pitchers early altogether? I really don't think that's the way to go. After the first or second round, you don't have many impact players left who are available with any kind of track record.

Elbow injuries are no longer really a long-term issue for pitchers. Shoulder injuries now appear to be the death knell. I think teams still try to draft pitching, and I think one way to approach it is to just trust in the law of large numbers. The chances of drafting impact position players after the first couple rounds is probably less than that for pitchers (haven't looked at actual numbers to support that).

I think position/pitcher, it doesn't matter, really, because after the first 10-20 picks in most drafts, you're going to be getting a player, even in the first round, that is going to have some question-marks. IMO, you always take your highest rated player at your given pick. Financials often get in the way, and how you rate pitching vs. Position prospects is always to play a role. I do have less confidence in Shaffer to land quality pitching, but he is always looking for that HR-pick. You swing and miss a lot, I'm just hoping he starts connecting, LOL!
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  #42  
Old 07-19-2004, 07:12 PM
Win1ForMe Win1ForMe is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wealz
I think it would behoove a mid-revenue team like the Sox to use their premium picks every year, say first 6-7 rounds, on position players. Let someone else waste millions of dollars developing pitching for you. For instance, if the Sox had hitters in the minors they could have dealt them to the Expos for Vazquez. Or if one of those hitters could have replaced Ordonez, Ordonez could have been used to get a pitcher. I don't think it's essential to develop pitching, but it is essential to have a strong farm system, and position players are the easiest way to do that IMO
I don't know how feasible that would be for mid-revenue teams. No GM will
trade good, young pitching for position prospects. They'll trade those pitchers
only when they're arbitration eligible or approach free-agency, in which case
you're paying them a lot of money, in which case you can't afford them if
you're a mid-revenue team.

IMO, mid-revenue teams (Florida, Oakland) compete because they've developed good young pitching.
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  #43  
Old 07-21-2004, 02:49 AM
jeremyb1 jeremyb1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Wealz
I'll give you Garland, but he came at a price that was too good to refuse -- Matt Karchner. Even though he's a success story, I think that you'd have to agree that he's devolped slower than any of us would have liked. I understand he's 24, but with as many major league innings as he has under his belt his career performance has been a mild disappointment to this point.
Two thoughts:

1) I don't think you can fault the organization for getting Garland at a great price. For all we know the deal required significant holding out and strong negotiating by Schuler. At a minimum it required patience and level headedness to realize that despite one mediocre season Garland was still a strong prospect.

2) Look at Garland's AAA numbers at Charlotte in '00. His ERA was outstanding but his peripheral stats don't suggest he was dominating AAA hitters. I think it's unfair to peg his slow development to a poor ability to develop young talent as opposed to promoting him prematurely.
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  #44  
Old 07-26-2004, 08:11 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Randar68
Reed was the top prospect in the system when traded, Webster was #4, Francisco is pitching out of the Ranger's bullpen at age 20 (maybe 21) and jumped basically from A-ball. Rupe is a risk/reward prospect, Ring was a first round draft choice (and even if you say he was a reach, which he was, he was no worse than a sadwich pick projection).

The names that spring to mind? Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Honel and Wing pre-injuries, Brandon McCarthy, Borchard (a Ron Schueler pick, pal), Valido is in his first full season fer chrissakes.

You just don't seem to have any real grasp of the expectations and realistic time-frames that prospects progress/develop at, and it suits your crying and whining tact.

You take half of a team's top 10 prospects and trade them or they are injured within a 12 month window, and no-**** the organization is going to drop in ranking!

Do you go for it now and trade prospects or sit around waiting? KW has shown he's not going to sit around waiting, and that does cost the system, but gives you a better chance to win on the MLB level now. You still didn't answer which you'd prefer, but the first tactic didn't work for Schueler, hopefully the latter works for KW. If they win a WS, are you going to cry and whine about the status of the farm teams?

Several good points in this post, the strongest point being that Williams didn't draft Borchard. Another strong point is that we gave up some good pitching in Ring, Rupe, and Francisco in trades last year.

Plus, a few of our "prospects" such as Cotts and Adkins are at the MLB level, being rushed in their development to fill pressing needs, and are not factored into the equation.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I am really enamored with our '03 and '04 drafts, and I think that Kenny Williams has shown a lot of potential as a guy who can draft well. This means that, while we never seem top-heavy with AAA talent because we're making trades to better our parent club, our cupboard will continually be restocked.

Kenny Williams is really trying his damndest to run a solid organization while operating with a bottom-third payroll. In my opinion, he's doing it better than Ron Schueler ever did.
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  #45  
Old 07-27-2004, 10:20 AM
gosox41 gosox41 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney
Several good points in this post, the strongest point being that Williams didn't draft Borchard. Another strong point is that we gave up some good pitching in Ring, Rupe, and Francisco in trades last year.

Plus, a few of our "prospects" such as Cotts and Adkins are at the MLB level, being rushed in their development to fill pressing needs, and are not factored into the equation.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I am really enamored with our '03 and '04 drafts, and I think that Kenny Williams has shown a lot of potential as a guy who can draft well. This means that, while we never seem top-heavy with AAA talent because we're making trades to better our parent club, our cupboard will continually be restocked.

Kenny Williams is really trying his damndest to run a solid organization while operating with a bottom-third payroll. In my opinion, he's doing it better than Ron Schueler ever did.
A couple of points:

1. The Sox are not in the bottom third in payroll. I thought I read somewhere that they are 12th in the majors, but even if it's slightly lower then that they do not have the 20th highest payroll in the league.

2. Time will tell with the Sox 2003 and 2004 draft. But what about 2000-2002? Also, is some here say KW is not running the draft then why give him any credit? Pesonally I think he is. He hires the baseball people around him who share his philosophy.

3. Cotts and Adkins...don't get me started on them. Both were part of bad trades. Cotts is more of a prospect but when the Sox got Adkins he was a 24 year old AAA pitcher with a bad shoulder. Now he's a 26 year old right handed releiver who just isn't all that good.

I'm definitely not as high on Cotts as some are around here. But I'm not willing to give up on him yet.


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