Questions for Daver, Randar and other scouts

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by California Sox

By and large I tend to agree that the best players from college ball can jump quickly to high A. In White Sox history, Robin bypassed high-A, Frank dominated in his brief stay, Reed dominated in half a season as did Brian Anderson. Here's the question: Josh Fields is really struggling. I know it is waaaay to early to panic, but is he not as advanced as a hitter as most thought? Thanks.

I don't believe that's necessarily the case. I don't think he's as refined a hitter as any of those 3 or 4 you mentioned. He and Brian Anderson are probably most comparable coming out of NCAA. Anderson went to Great Falls and didn't get a taste of High A ball until this spring, and yes he did dominate. Fields has his share of things to work on, and losing half to 2/3rds of each of the past 3 years to football certainly didn't help one iota in his refinement or polish.

Adjusting to wood bats, the pitching, etc. This isn't necessarily an indication of anything, and the kid is a real hard worker, so I'd expect a big improvement when he get's a chance to step back and learn from this experience.

[Daver]

Originally Posted by Randar68

McCarthy has the body of a power pitcher but relies more on finesse. He has pinpoint control, and he still projects to add some velocity if he continues to fill out his rail-thin frame. He does need to pitch inside better, he has good stuff, but excellent control. He's only 20 and is now in High A ball after dominating in Kannapolis save for a start or 2.

Gio Gonzalez has a wicked curve, but he throws 3 pitches for strikes with a 88-91 mph fastball and a nice change-up. He's very polished for his age, although some concern exists about his frail frame and his mechanics.

Hey Randar, is Gonzalez still dipping his shoulder on his curve and not on any of his other pitches?

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by Daver

Hey Randar, is Gonzalez still dipping his shoulder on his curve and not on any of his other pitches?

I haven't seen him recently. I will be in Bristol first week of August to see them, and I'll definitely try to see him play. I'll be in Kanny too just in case he is promoted! Hopefully, they get Lucy up to Kanny by then so I can see him, selfish reasons of course!

[Rex Hudler]

Originally Posted by Randar68

The best college players dominate at their level. Moving to Winston-Salem from Arizona or Oklahoma, IMO, is very similar a step as Kannapolis to W-S. There are other differences, like length of season, etc, but that's just my feeling on it. You expect a short adjustment period and then success.

Right! The best college players can compete at that high of a level. But that is a player or two on each team and a handful in each league. Those few players do not make the level of competition in college equivalent to Low A. It only means that the best can compete at higher levels. The overall level of competition is still in the neighborhood of Advanced Rookie.

[Chisoxfn]

Originally Posted by The Tom

What kind of stuff does Gio Gonzalez have. From what I gather, he relies on a killer curve. What kind of velocity does he project as he gets older? Also, I'm getting contradictory reports on McCarthy. Some say he's power pitcher and other's say he's a finesse guy. Which is he?

I just had an interview with McCarthy and right now he's a finesse pitcher in a power pitchers body. The thing is, he gets power pitcher results.

The thing that stands out the most about McCarthy is he is seeing climbs in his velocity. He can already throw his fastball threw a tea-cup so as his velocity continues to develop he should be able to have pinpoint control of what I believe can become a 93-95 MPH fastball.

Right now his velocity is a bit up and is frequently as high as 93. He pitches somewhere in the 91-93 MPH range now, while last year it was the 88 MPH range.

The other thing McCarthy has added to his repetoire is a good changeup. He changed the grip on it this spring and its taken off well. He's getting more and more comfortable with it and feels it can turn into a plus pitch in time. I think its one of the reasons you've seen his hit totals drop this year.

Hope that helps

[Chisoxfn]

Originally Posted by California Sox

By and large I tend to agree that the best players from college ball can jump quickly to high A. In White Sox history, Robin bypassed high-A, Frank dominated in his brief stay, Reed dominated in half a season as did Brian Anderson. Here's the question: Josh Fields is really struggling. I know it is waaaay to early to panic, but is he not as advanced as a hitter as most thought? Thanks.

If you take out Fields first week or so, his numbers aren't quite as bad. He has a decent eye on the plate and a long swing. However, he's adjusting "power wise" to wood bats well. On Friday he hit a mammoth of a homerun to dead center in Winston Salem. I'm going to try and get a video clip of it up tonight, but its impressive to say the least. He was ahead of the count and got a hanging curveball.

The adjustment period is going to be tough. Just see what develops and then as he gets used to the harder level (trust me, High A Ball is a step up from what he saw most of the time in college). He could potentially be in Bham by the end of the year if he does get in a groove, otherwise he may sit in Winston Salem. I do think as he sees more pitches, you'll see him break out this year.

That doesn't mean he'll of solved his problems, but he's got the chance to be pretty good and could move through the system fast.

[Fungo]

Originally Posted by Rex Hudler

I love college baseball, but I think Jim Callis backed me up here. The best college teams would have difficulty competing at Low A, because at least half their players would not even be good enough for that level at the time. The best players in college baseball can step in and compete, but overall, the talent is nowhere near deep enough to compete at those levels as a team.

Callis' point remember, was about pitcher's facing a line-up of hitters 1 thru 9. A stud hitter coming out of one of the quality conferences is facing pretty decent pitching most of the time and probably slightly below High A ball as Randar suggested. A pitcher from a top conference is, IMO, more polished than a kid in High A ball a year or 2 removed from High School.

Excellent debate.

[The Tom]

I have a question. Are the White Sox ever going to turn out a good pitching prospect? Besides Mark "The Exception" Beuhrle and the fact that Garland may be about to break out, the Sox have a terrible track record with pitchers. Rauch, Cotts, Munoz, Biddle, Wright, and the Kipper all tanked. I know some of those guys still had a chance, but when are the White Sox gonna produce a front-line start out of their system?

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by The Tom

I have a question. Are the White Sox ever going to turn out a good pitching prospect? Besides Mark "The Exception" Beuhrle and the fact that Garland may be about to break out, the Sox have a terrible track record with pitchers. Rauch, Cotts, Munoz, Biddle, Wright, and the Kipper all tanked. I know some of those guys still had a chance, but when are the White Sox gonna produce a front-line start out of their system?

Like Alex Fernandez, Jason Bere and Jack McDowell?

It's harder to do it when you never have draft picks in the top half of the first round.

[Rex Hudler]

Originally Posted by Fungo

Callis' point remember, was about pitcher's facing a line-up of hitters 1 thru 9. A stud hitter coming out of one of the quality conferences is facing pretty decent pitching most of the time and probably slightly below High A ball as Randar suggested. A pitcher from a top conference is, IMO, more polished than a kid in High A ball a year or 2 removed from High School.

Excellent debate.

Ummm...... most college pitchers ARE kids a year or two removed from high school. Check out their rosters!

[Fungo]

Originally Posted by Rex Hudler

Ummm...... most college pitchers ARE kids a year or two removed from high school. Check out their rosters!

I understand, but from a maturity standpoint, I think that gives the college kid more polish. IMO, I tend to think that, outside the first maybe 3 rounds of the draft, and obviously there are exceptions to the rule, that high schoolers are drafted more on how they 'project' rather than on knowing how to pitch.

[Rex Hudler]

Originally Posted by Fungo

I understand, but from a maturity standpoint, I think that gives the college kid more polish. IMO, I tend to think that, outside the first maybe 3 rounds of the draft, and obviously there are exceptions to the rule, that high schoolers are drafted more on how they 'project' rather than on knowing how to pitch.

Keep in mind that the colleges get the pitchers that the draft doesn't gobble up. Granted, there are a lot of good pitchers that go to college instead of signing, but there is still a difference.

Watch good college baseball and then go watch High A baseball. You will see a big difference. The arms are stronger. The pitchers rely much less on breaking balls (granted aluminum bats make a difference). I really think most top college programs would have trouble competing at the Low A level. Otherwise, everybody in college would get drafted.

[The Tom]

Brian Anderson went 2-4 again tonight for Birmingham. He's really swinging it well since struggling early on. How short is his stay in Birmingham gonna be (I'm assuming hell stay for the rest of the year like Reed). I think Anderson will be a better pro than Reed. He's a good contact hitter like Reed (not AS good though), but he has good power (what is his HR projection in the majors) and is an excellent fileder. I wonder if we'll see him manning center for the sox next year.

[Randar68]

Originally Posted by The Tom

Brian Anderson went 2-4 again tonight for Birmingham. He's really swinging it well since struggling early on. How short is his stay in Birmingham gonna be (I'm assuming hell stay for the rest of the year like Reed). I think Anderson will be a better pro than Reed. He's a good contact hitter like Reed (not AS good though), but he has good power (what is his HR projection in the majors) and is an excellent fileder. I wonder if we'll see him manning center for the sox next year.

Anderson is a very talented kid. He's not going to steal a lot of bases, but he is fast. HR-projection? Heck, I think 30 is a realistic projection in the majors. I think his potential numbers project to be similar to what Carlos Lee does: around .300, 30 HR's and 90-100 RBI's. I think that's a relatively safe projection, although he may not hit for that power until 2007/2008. He hits a lot of hard doubles, and those often turn into HR's as guys mature and fill out as they reach their mid to upper 20's. Great arm in CF and he's accurate due to great footwork.

[Frater Perdurabo]

Originally Posted by Randar68

Anderson is a very talented kid. He's not going to steal a lot of bases, but he is fast. HR-projection? Heck, I think 30 is a realistic projection in the majors. I think his potential numbers project to be similar to what Carlos Lee does: around .300, 30 HR's and 90-100 RBI's. I think that's a relatively safe projection, although he may not hit for that power until 2007/2008. He hits a lot of hard doubles, and those often turn into HR's as guys mature and fill out as they reach their mid to upper 20's. Great arm in CF and he's accurate due to great footwork.

Although I know that nothing is certain, it is good to know that the Sox might have a legitimate, home-grown CF with production comparable to Lee by 2007/08.