White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
GO SOX! DSNB!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-30-2019, 09:43 PM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,983
Default Leury Garcia and the Rebuild

Last night Leury Garcia had two great defensive plays. Today he's got a leadoff double and a subsequent small ball run, and has another single as I'm writing this. Numbers below do not include tonight's game, but his numbers are worth analyzing. We have not really been factoring him into the rebuild (at least I haven't over the last few years). I think it's time to think about Leury Garcia and the Rebuild.

Garcia came to the White Sox in 2013 as a player to be named later for Alex Rios. An afterthought, it would seem. He makes $1.5M this season, is controlled next season, and is a free agent in 2021.

Garcia played a decent amount in 2014 with dismal results at the plate. He didn't play much at all at the big league level in 2015 or 2016, and played regularly (but not exactly a starter) in 2017 and 2018. He's been more of a starter this season. Projecting 2019 over the rest of the season at the plate, he's continuing to improve: he'll end with a slash line of .293/.328/.370, 6HR, 24 doubles, 48 RBI. Bear in mind, he's been batting a lot of leadoff, so the RBI won't be there as much. In 2017 he exhibited more in the way of power numbers, but the 2019 slash line seems a little closer to his likely production over the next few years. Over the last two years Garcia has shown a darn good record in stolen bases (19 SBs in 22 attempts). I'm awful at interpreting the new defensive stats, but he can play five different positions (all outfield and up the middle infield). He certainly plays more in the outfield, and I believe he's considered an average to above-average outfielder. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

According to baseball-reference.com, Garcia has a WAR of 1.3 right now, projecting to nearly 4 for the season. Let's round that down and call it 3.5, assuming you put even any stock in WAR. I'm skeptical, but don't consider it worthless. 3.5 is pretty valuable.

I'm looking at the organization and see Jimenez and Robert as (of course) obvious staples through 2021 at a minimum. While there are a lot of options for that 3rd starter spot, they've been struggling lately. I'm thinking Basabe and Gonzalez have been less than impressive this year, and Adolfo has major injury-related question marks in the long term.

The collective White Sox fan base has not generally considered Leury Garcia as part of the rebuild, but should he be? I'm thinking yes. Balancing cost and quality, I don't see a better 3rd outfielder option in the 2020-22 time frame than Leury Garcia. If someone happens to assert himself and take that 3rd spot, Garcia is an OUTSTANDING 4th outfielder/utility guy. I'd like to see the Sox lock him up for something like 3 years, $10M. That seems doable, as well as a great cost-savings to the Sox. Drop in the bucket financially, a lot of money in Garcia's mind, I'd think, and a Major League player who has proven his value over the course of a few years that can be a big part of the organization's next few (very important) years.

Who's with me?!
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-30-2019, 09:49 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 7,039
Default

Sorry, you can't be part of the rebuild if you're gone in 2021. I don't think locking him up at his peak performance is wise.
__________________
"Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but its nature is to be extravagant, and those who go so far as to stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only when they are ruined."
-- Thucydides
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-30-2019, 09:53 PM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,983
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Sorry, you can't be part of the rebuild if you're gone in 2021. I don't think locking him up at his peak performance is wise.
Umm...when do you want to lock up the type of players who command 2 or 3 year contracts? Before you know their peak performance? After they've achieved their peak performance? No, at the moment it's realized, when you can get it cheap for another few years.

$10M for Leury through 2022 is a very, VERY small risk for the White Sox. If you think he's not a good baseball player, I get it, not worth it. But if he's got value at the MLB level, that's not a lot of money.

Edit: And by the way, I'm talking about a contract that would lock him in through the 2022 season, not "gone in 2021", which is ambiguous. Is he gone before the 2021 season, or after? I'm saying sign him to a 3 year contract for $10M, keeping him with us through the entirety of the 2022 season.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-30-2019, 10:04 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 57,998
Blog Entries: 9
Default

What impresses me most is his bat control. He's been slapping the ball all over the place with great success. Given the number of positions he can cover he could be a fine bench piece for the team, more so since if he can continue his success with this hitting approach he makes a decent PH off the bench.
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-30-2019, 11:06 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 11,635
Default

At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Letís give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and letís fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-30-2019, 11:12 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,189
Default

You don't have to lock up a 4th outfielder, they are easy to keep around if they prove useful. We'll see how useful he is on a team built to contend.

Regarding the 3rd OF spot; quality corner OFers are not costly to acquire either via free agency or trade if none of the 5 prospects (Rutherford, Basabe, Gonzalez, Walker, Adolfo) pan out.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-30-2019, 11:21 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 57,998
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Letís give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.
If he were trying to hit for power I'd agree, but his swing is designed to slap the baseball not drive it. Those types of hitters typically do have higher BABIP.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-30-2019, 11:33 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 11,635
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
If he were trying to hit for power I'd agree, but his swing is designed to slap the baseball not drive it. Those types of hitters typically do have higher BABIP.
Not .382 high. That is unsustainable.

We need to not let recency bias cloud our judgement. 4 great games this week does not make the previous 2 months magically disappear. Like Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia simply is not as good as many fans make him out to be.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-31-2019, 01:05 AM
slavko slavko is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: North Suburban
Posts: 7,798
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Letís give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.
Does OPS have a lot of meaning for a leadoff man? I'd look at OBP first.
__________________
Prince Harry and Meghan are starting to get on my nerves.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-31-2019, 05:26 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 20,679
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Before this season I would have said no, mostly because his years of team control end before the rebuild is supposed to peak, because we have enough outfielders, and because he couldnít stay healthy.

However, at some point you have to be willing to keep your good players.

If the Sox hover around .500, then they arenít far from a wild card spot, and adding Collins and Robert to the lineup and Kopech and Cease to the rotation suddenly makes this an interesting team. With that in mind, maybe you keep contributors like Abreu, Colome, McCann, and even Leury.

If an Eloy-Leury-Robert outfield is productive in 2020, great!
__________________
The universe is the practical joke of the General at the expense of the Particular, quoth Frater Perdurabo, and laughed. The disciples nearest him wept, seeing the Universal Sorrow. Others laughed, seeing the Universal Joke. Others wept. Others laughed. Others wept because they couldn't see the Joke, and others laughed lest they should be thought not to see the Joke. But though FRATER laughed openly, he wept secretly; and really he neither laughed nor wept. Nor did he mean what he said.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-31-2019, 07:24 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Gonzales LA
Posts: 15,706
Blog Entries: 2
Default

I've always liked him, and still do. I think he's a good player because he can play infield and outfield. But he has a woeful 3% walk rate, which suggests his .716 OPS and .335 OBP are about at their peak. And despite Yolmer's struggles this year, I think Yolmer is the better player.
Should they trade him? Sure if they get an offer for some good or potentially good pitching. And then they have similar players like Rondon who would get more time if they traded him. And as he plays primarily OF, it will give more time to Cordell and Tilson, both of whom the Sox will have to make a decision on soon (and they'll need the room if Hahn insists on bringing up Jay)
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-31-2019, 07:46 AM
Chez's Avatar
Chez Chez is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Clarendon Hills
Posts: 7,070
Default

In the era of the 3-man bench, Leury (who plays average to above average defense at six positions) is a valuable option. Plus, I learned in the Athletic last week that his teammates have nicknamed him "Leroy" -- which I love.
__________________

2019 Sox Attendance Tracker: 8-5
All time Sox Attendance Tracker:

285-246
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-31-2019, 08:00 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 1,315
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Letís give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.
I think you're too down on Luery. You're cherry picking one of his low points of the season. 10 games ago his OPS was .708, 20 games ago it was .731. His 3 year slash line is .278/.316/.396 which can play at CF. Now if Leury can actually play at CF is another question.

That being said, he's 28 now and probably at his peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he can play at this level for the rest of this season and maybe even next. I don't believe he will be seeing regular playing time anywhere by 2021.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-31-2019, 09:34 AM
DumpJerry's Avatar
DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
Tom Feargal Hagen
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The hearts and minds of Sox fans on 10-26-05
Posts: 28,110
Default

I started reading this thread not realizing math was on the test...Ö.

He is either a great bench guy once Robert is here or can bring in some interesting prospects from a team that feels he fills a need.
__________________


2020....2020.....2020....2020....2020.....
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-31-2019, 09:40 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 11,635
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
I think you're too down on Luery. You're cherry picking one of his low points of the season. 10 games ago his OPS was .708, 20 games ago it was .731. His 3 year slash line is .278/.316/.396 which can play at CF. Now if Leury can actually play at CF is another question.

That being said, he's 28 now and probably at his peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he can play at this level for the rest of this season and maybe even next. I don't believe he will be seeing regular playing time anywhere by 2021.
Youíre also cherry-picking by throwing that outlier 2017 season into your 3-year slash. That was the only year he ever had an OPS+ above 90.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:19 AM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.