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  #1  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:25 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Default Sox offseason thread Part 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Foulke You
I agree with you. In order for rebuilds to work, you better be prepared to supplement your roster and spend on some veterans to get to the next step. The Sox are being offered a rare opportunity this offseason to supplement their rebuild with a veteran MVP caliber player who is only 26 years old. They can "serve two masters" by getting the veteran talent they need to get the team to point B and also get potentially 7 or 8 really productive seasons out of the player to boot. They won't have dead money at the back end of the deal like the Angels have with Pujols because it's very likely that Machado or Harper will still be good players at age 32 or 33.
This is so spot on.
  #2  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:00 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Part 3 had a statement that the White Sox will not lose 90+ games this season (as is)- I disagree- our starting pitching is just awful- we need another legit rotation starter (would have been Kopech) to really move the needle- Lopez at 2 and especially Giolito at 3 is just horrible, and we have zero depth after our thin rotation (other than Cease possibly emerging mid season)- even with the potentially improved bullpen and improved offense by adding Eloy.
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Players that are an important part of the rebuild:
Anderson, Giolito, Lopez, Moncada
  #3  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:15 PM
EMel9281 EMel9281 is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
Part 3 had a statement that the White Sox will not lose 90+ games this season (as is)- I disagree- our starting pitching is just awful- we need another legit rotation starter (would have been Kopech) to really move the needle- Lopez at 2 and especially Giolito at 3 is just horrible, and we have zero depth after our thin rotation (other than Cease possibly emerging mid season)- even with the potentially improved bullpen and improved offense by adding Eloy.
Agreed. A rotation of Nova, Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Covey does not seem like one a contender is going to have.
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  #4  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:16 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
Part 3 had a statement that the White Sox will not lose 90+ games this season (as is)- I disagree- our starting pitching is just awful- we need another legit rotation starter (would have been Kopech) to really move the needle- Lopez at 2 and especially Giolito at 3 is just horrible, and we have zero depth after our thin rotation (other than Cease possibly emerging mid season)- even with the potentially improved bullpen and improved offense by adding Eloy.
Yeah it also talked about our division being trash. But the Twins did a ton to catch up this offseason and it looks like them and the Indians will both be pretty good this year.

Our rotation is Rodon - Nova - Lopez - Giolito - Dumpster fire

Everyone is a question mark. Rodon for injuries, Nova because he's inconsistent. Lopez and Giolito are still young with varying points of success and failure. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they're good enough to win short of a towering offense supporting them.
  #5  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:25 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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The Cubs do not win the World Series without John Lester in his prime. The Astros do not without Justin Verlander. The Red Sox do not without JD Martinez and Chris Sale. The Royals went and got an in prime James Shields. All of these guys were arguably the best players on their rosters, or among the top 3.

It's not a one or the other with rebuilds. It's both. Machado/Harper or bust.

If the Sox don't sign Machado or Harper, in '21 or '22 they will have still next to no money on the books. They will have a core in place, with clear holes that need to be filled likely. Their low payroll and excess prospect depth will be available to add these individuals to put them over the top.

Verlander was easy to acquire, just had to pay the salary pretty much and a decent prospect (he also wasn't as good at the end with the Tigers, saw a big resurgence with the Astros), Lester was a 6 year deal in free agency that if the Sox are in need of a top end guy they have the money for that. Shields was never an ace, but I don't see getting a 31 year old with 2 years of control and his caliber out of the question at all.

These are normal plug-ins that contending teams do, and the Sox will be well equipped to do so.
  #6  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:36 PM
kobo kobo is offline
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The AL Central is trash. And I never said the team as currently constructed won't lose over 90 games. I said that even without adding Machado I don't see the team losing over 90 games. You can all say I'm crazy but it's just as crazy as some of these other opinions being thrown around here lately.
  #7  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:43 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
If the Sox don't sign Machado or Harper, in '21 or '22 they will have still next to no money on the books. They will have a core in place, with clear holes that need to be filled likely. Their low payroll and excess prospect depth will be available to add these individuals to put them over the top.

Verlander was easy to acquire, just had to pay the salary pretty much and a decent prospect (he also wasn't as good at the end with the Tigers, saw a big resurgence with the Astros), Lester was a 6 year deal in free agency that if the Sox are in need of a top end guy they have the money for that. Shields was never an ace, but I don't see getting a 31 year old with 2 years of control and his caliber out of the question at all.

These are normal plug-ins that contending teams do, and the Sox will be well equipped to do so.
In four years the sox will only have nothing on the books if the rebuild has failed.

It'll be arbitration years 2 and 3 for those on the current roster, and year 1 for everyone up this year and Kopech.

Adding at that point requires a smaller commitment. It's harder to time right. You'd want to add guys by the second year that the core comes up. The White Sox are in year 2 for a lot of guys, especially pitchers.
  #8  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:44 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by kobo View Post
The AL Central is trash. And I never said the team as currently constructed won't lose over 90 games. I said that even without adding Machado I don't see the team losing over 90 games. You can all say I'm crazy but it's just as crazy as some of these other opinions being thrown around here lately.
So Machado aside- what additions (if any) are you anticipating?

I don't see them adding a rotation starter of any quality- and without upgrading the rotation- I don't see how they lose < 90 games in 2019....losing Kopech for the season is a killer.
  #9  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:48 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
So Machado aside- what additions (if any) are you anticipating?

I don't see them adding a rotation starter of any quality- and without upgrading the rotation- I don't see how they lose < 90 games in 2019....losing Kopech for the season is a killer.
I want Machado and Harper both. Or Harper and Moustakas. Or Machado and AJ Pollock. And another elite pen arm to close. Either Kimbrel or Ottavino.

There are a lot of free agent starters that are better than Dylan Covey. Make Covey and Giolito fight for a spot.

Oh but you said anticipate. I anticipate Hahn asking Kenny for Robbie Alomar's number. : )
  #10  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:52 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Here's the bottom line for me. I'm OK with signing Machado (or Harper) to whatever contract is necessary, provided that the contract does not in the future keep the Sox from retaining home-grown stars (Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, etc.) and still remaining at or below the luxury tax limit (or whatever salary cap, etc. that might succeed the luxury tax in a new CBA).


Yes, I want to win multiple World Series, but I want more than that. I want those multiple World Series titles to be won in the context of the Sox building a long-term sustainable organization.



I do not want to "blow the entire load" on a contention window of 2019-2025, only to have to cycle back into another tanking/rebuild in 2026 because we're still paying a declining/injured aging veteran an ungodly salary and thus can't keep our own players in their productive primes, and don't have any decent MLB-ready prospects in the pipeline.


I want an organization that is so self-sustaining that we don't ever again have to endure a multi-year tanking/rebuild.



Maybe that's too much to expect, but that's what the goal should be.
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  #11  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:55 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Here's the bottom line for me. I'm OK with signing Machado (or Harper) to whatever contract is necessary, provided that the contract does not in the future keep the Sox from retaining home-grown stars (Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, etc.) and still remaining at or below the luxury tax limit (or whatever salary cap, etc. that might succeed the luxury tax in a new CBA).


Yes, I want to win multiple World Series, but I want more than that. I want those multiple World Series titles to be won in the context of the Sox building a long-term sustainable organization.



I do not want to "blow the entire load" on a contention window of 2019-2025, only to have to cycle back into another tanking/rebuild in 2026 because we're still paying a declining/injured aging veteran an ungodly salary and thus can't keep our own players in their productive primes, and don't have any decent MLB-ready prospects in the pipeline.


I want an organization that is so self-sustaining that we don't ever again have to endure a multi-year tanking/rebuild.



Maybe that's too much to expect, but that's what the goal should be.
Honestly...we'd be lucky in the best scenarios to have THAT long of a contention window. Short of becoming a payroll powerhouse. The prospect line doesn't work that way. You draft lower, lose picks, etc. Drafting, scouting, and development are great for making and extending a window...but that's a really long time. You're going to either get into luxury tax territory, or you're essentially constantly replacing blue chips with blue chips.
  #12  
Old 01-10-2019, 04:02 PM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
I want Machado and Harper both. Or Harper and Moustakas. Or Machado and AJ Pollock. And another elite pen arm to close. Either Kimbrel or Ottavino.

There are a lot of free agent starters that are better than Dylan Covey. Make Covey and Giolito fight for a spot.

Oh but you said anticipate. I anticipate Hahn asking Kenny for Robbie Alomar's number. : )
Sorry, that is spending just to spend. Like the little kid with money in his pocket that blows it on junk vs. saving for something special.

Moustakas is junk with one great season. Pollock is good, with one good full season, but can't stay healthy. We give him 3-5 years and then watch him sit on the DL? Not worth the risk to me. Kimbrel or Ottovino are nice, but both have LOTS of mileage and will cost a lot of money/years. Not interested. The Sox would be smart to make very generous offers on Harper and/or Machado as those are special players that are young with their primes ahead of them. Otherwise, keep the powder dry for future "special" deals, IMO. I understand your point about filling in pieces with vets, but I don't think that should occur until we are further along with the rebuild.
  #13  
Old 01-10-2019, 04:21 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Heffalump View Post
Sorry, that is spending just to spend. Like the little kid with money in his pocket that blows it on junk vs. saving for something special.

Moustakas is junk with one great season. Pollock is good, with one good full season, but can't stay healthy. We give him 3-5 years and then watch him sit on the DL? Not worth the risk to me. Kimbrel or Ottovino are nice, but both have LOTS of mileage and will cost a lot of money/years. Not interested. The Sox would be smart to make very generous offers on Harper and/or Machado as those are special players that are young with their primes ahead of them. Otherwise, keep the powder dry for future "special" deals, IMO. I understand your point about filling in pieces with vets, but I don't think that should occur until we are further along with the rebuild.
This is that same attitude that is without regard for the financial reality of major league clubs.

Pollack for 4 years or so does nothing to hinder keeping our young players. He only adds talent right now. Moustakas is not junk. He'd command a one year deal and would easily be the best option on the roster at third base. Mileage on relief arms? Young relievers are not any more or less likely to blow out their arms. Both of those guys have, however, been consistently elite in their careers.
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:37 PM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
This is that same attitude that is without regard for the financial reality of major league clubs.

Pollack for 4 years or so does nothing to hinder keeping our young players. He only adds talent right now. Moustakas is not junk. He'd command a one year deal and would easily be the best option on the roster at third base. Mileage on relief arms? Young relievers are not any more or less likely to blow out their arms. Both of those guys have, however, been consistently elite in their careers.
How does Pollack not hinder young players? If he is healthy, he takes a spot that could be used for a young guy. If he is not healthy over the majority of the deal, which based on his history is very possible, you are throwing away money. And what is so special about him anyway? Great defense? Yep, but we already have that. His bat is nothing special, IMO.

Moustakas is junk. How is he "easily" the best option? I'd rather have the better defense from Yolmer, more speed and the entertainment, then his added 25 HRs and nothing else plus a big salary. If you are a stat nerd, Yomer actually had a higher WAR than him last year. What does one year of him really get us? And multiple years is just stupid considering our glut of infield younglings.

And young relievers are less likely to blow out their arms? Please back that up. Even if you can, we have TONS of great arms to try out in the bullpen. You lock in big reliever money for high risk? If we were already at 80+ wins and were looking to get to the next level, it makes sense. But not now. Not yet. Save the powder.
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:41 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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How does Pollack not hinder young players? If he is healthy, he takes a spot that could be used for a young guy. If he is not healthy over the majority of the deal, which based on his history is very possible, you are throwing away money. And what is so special about him anyway? Great defense? Yep, but we already have that. His bat is nothing special, IMO.

Moustakas is junk. I'd rather have the better defense from Yolmer, more speed and the entertainment, then his added 25 HRs and nothing else plus a big salary. What does one year of him really get us? And multiple years is just stupid considering are glut of infield younglings.

And young relievers are less likely to blow out their arms? Please back that up. Even if you can, we have TONS of great arms to try out in the bullpen. You lock in big reliever money for high risk? If we were already at 80+ wins and were looking to get to the next level, it makes sense. But not now. Not yet. Save the powder.
What young player is Pollack stealing playing time from? We have no one ready, and no one scheduled in center for years. At the end of his deal, he's a bat on the bench that can play all three outfield positions.

Sanchez is junk a million times over before Moustakas.

How many 30+ guys are getting Tommy John? It's almost always the young guys.
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