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  #1  
Old 03-14-2018, 08:52 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Default A detailed look at Giolito's mechanics (Fangraphs)

Let’s Watch Lucas Giolito Look Very Good

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Last season, with the White Sox, Giolito raised his slot a little bit. From the looks of things, he’s gone back down and then some, such that he’s a little more around the shoulder than on top of it. Again, he’s not coming straight from the side, but assuming Giolito isn’t injured, this wouldn’t be a coincidence. This would be an intentional adjustment, with the idea of keeping Giolito’s body more in sync.
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  #2  
Old 03-14-2018, 04:10 PM
WisSoxFan WisSoxFan is offline
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Thanks for sharing. That article gives me happy thoughts!
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  #3  
Old 03-14-2018, 05:34 PM
guillensdisciple guillensdisciple is offline
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He definitely isn’t injured, but what an interesting article. It looks like a minor tweak has changed everything for him.

If true, what a big boost for many of us who were waiting for the Hansen/ Kopech/ Cease combo to produce aces.

This can give us so much room to work with.
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  #4  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:01 PM
Tragg Tragg is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guillensdisciple View Post
He definitely isn’t injured, but what an interesting article. It looks like a minor tweak has changed everything for him.

If true, what a big boost for many of us who were waiting for the Hansen/ Kopech/ Cease combo to produce aces.

This can give us so much room to work with.
Excellent news
But those 3 are a minimum. Right now we have 2 young pitchers in the rotation; add those 3 and its 5. Really need another 5 for depth, or hit the free agents. No White Sox veteran is good enough to be part of a winning rotation. Rodon should be capable, if he gets healthy. Hope they have some in the lower minors to keep the pipeline growing.
I'm paranoid on this because the 3 best Sox teams of my lifetime (83, 93, and 05) had 5 good starters. And numerous teams disappointed for want of a 5th (or 4th) starter.
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  #5  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:33 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guillensdisciple View Post
He definitely isn’t injured, but what an interesting article. It looks like a minor tweak has changed everything for him.

If true, what a big boost for many of us who were waiting for the Hansen/ Kopech/ Cease combo to produce aces.

This can give us so much room to work with.
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Excellent news
But those 3 are a minimum. Right now we have 2 young pitchers in the rotation; add those 3 and its 5. Really need another 5 for depth, or hit the free agents. No White Sox veteran is good enough to be part of a winning rotation. Rodon should be capable, if he gets healthy. Hope they have some in the lower minors to keep the pipeline growing.
I'm paranoid on this because the 3 best Sox teams of my lifetime (83, 93, and 05) had 5 good starters. And numerous teams disappointed for want of a 5th (or 4th) starter.
Don't forget Dunning when looking at our starting pitching depth.
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  #6  
Old 03-14-2018, 10:16 PM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
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Me likey!
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  #7  
Old 03-14-2018, 11:21 PM
whitesoxfan1986 whitesoxfan1986 is offline
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I feel like the only one who wasn't writing Giolito off last June/July. The guy probably has the best 4 pitch arsenal out of all of the Sox young pitchers. Mid-90s fastball with a wicked trifecta of offspeed pitches. I have an eye for pitching, as many of the guys that are struggling that I say "That guy could be something, but it won't happen with his current team" end up being good eventually. It also helps to have Coop, one of the best in the business. There may not be any record of it, but I picked out Arrieta in 2011, when he first appeared with Baltimore, among others.
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  #8  
Old 03-15-2018, 08:50 AM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Great job.

I too have an eye for pitching. I remember watching a random Royals game on mlb.tv in about 2006, and I thought gee, this DJ Carrasco guy could be a real valuable swing man for an ok team with a flawed pitching staff if only he could get out of KC. Lo and behold, there he shows up in 2011 doing exactly that.

I’ve got an ear for it too. When I was in high school, my dad picked me up one afternoon in March, and Mike Sirotka was making a spring training start on the radio. Listening to an inning or two on the way home, I just knew he was going to gradually work his ERA down from 5 to 4 over the time few years as long as his labrum held up and help lead the team to a division title.
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  #9  
Old 03-16-2018, 12:58 PM
GoSox2K3 GoSox2K3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Excellent news
But those 3 are a minimum. Right now we have 2 young pitchers in the rotation; add those 3 and its 5. Really need another 5 for depth, or hit the free agents. No White Sox veteran is good enough to be part of a winning rotation. Rodon should be capable, if he gets healthy. Hope they have some in the lower minors to keep the pipeline growing.
I'm paranoid on this because the 3 best Sox teams of my lifetime (83, 93, and 05) had 5 good starters. And numerous teams disappointed for want of a 5th (or 4th) starter.
I think you'd be hard-pressed to find another MLB team that has as much young, talented starting pitching depth as the Sox.

Giolito and Kopech look like they could be aces. Lopez looks like he'll be a rotation mainstay. Hansen and Dunning looked very promising in the minors last year. These aren't a bunch of Lance Broadways and Erik Johnsons here, that's five guys right there with loads of talent. Then there's Rodon. As you said, he's capable but we'll see if he can bounce back from his injury and stay healthy. Cease is in the mix too as a possible effective starter.

Yes, you can never have enough starting pitching. Players get injured or they can fizzle out. But, all things considered, starting pitching is one of my lesser worries about this team moving forward.
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  #10  
Old 03-16-2018, 01:18 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Agreed, by my count the Sox currently have at least 8 guys who have the potential to be decent MLB starters in 2020 - 2021 (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Dunning, Fulmer, Hansen, Cease). The Sox only need about half of them to actually live up to that potential.
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  #11  
Old 03-16-2018, 09:31 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Agreed, by my count the Sox currently have at least 8 guys who have the potential to be decent MLB starters in 2020 - 2021 (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Dunning, Fulmer, Hansen, Cease). The Sox only need about half of them to actually live up to that potential.
I'd give Stephens and Puckett better odds than Fulmer.

Last edited by A. Cavatica; 03-16-2018 at 10:49 PM.
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  #12  
Old 03-17-2018, 01:57 AM
Tragg Tragg is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Agreed, by my count the Sox currently have at least 8 guys who have the potential to be decent MLB starters in 2020 - 2021 (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Dunning, Fulmer, Hansen, Cease). The Sox only need about half of them to actually live up to that potential.
Five of them and you need at least a couple to be top of the rotation guys. And a 50% success rate of prospects to pros, with no injuries, is an extremely high ratio.
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  #13  
Old 03-17-2018, 07:55 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Five of them and you need at least a couple to be top of the rotation guys. And a 50% success rate of prospects to pros, with no injuries, is an extremely high ratio.
Yes, a 50% success rate among “prospects” generally is unreasonably and ahistorically high. But that’s if you’re talking about all prospects (or all pitching prospects) generally.

However, that list is cherry-picked to include pitchers who already have had success in the majors (Rodon), those who already have made the majors (Giolito and Lopez), and two of them who already have made the most difficult jump in the minors from A to AA and have had success at AA (Kopech and Hansen). (The fact that there are twice as many A teams as AA teams tells us that half of all prospects fail to make that jump.)

So really, among that list, 50% isn’t unreasonable.
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  #14  
Old 03-17-2018, 02:56 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Yes, a 50% success rate among “prospects” generally is unreasonably and ahistorically high. But that’s if you’re talking about all prospects (or all pitching prospects) generally.

However, that list is cherry-picked to include pitchers who already have had success in the majors (Rodon), those who already have made the majors (Giolito and Lopez), and two of them who already have made the most difficult jump in the minors from A to AA and have had success at AA (Kopech and Hansen). (The fact that there are twice as many A teams as AA teams tells us that half of all prospects fail to make that jump.)

So really, among that list, 50% isn’t unreasonable.
Agreed. I can't see how a 50% or less success rate accurately applies to a group that includes Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, and Kopech. 3 of those 4 guys have already shown success in the majors and Kopech is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball. The biggest question mark among those 4 is probably Rodon's injury recovery. Maybe there's a 50% success rate among Hansen, Dunning, and Cease. I dunno - even so I'm still pretty optimistic about these guys.

Fulmer is the only one on the list I don't have high hopes for. I think his odds of making it as a MLB starting pitcher are fairly low. It's not zero, he could still get on track. But I don't have much hope for him.

Last edited by Hitmen77; 03-17-2018 at 04:05 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 03-17-2018, 03:49 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Agreed. I can't see how a 50% or less success rate accurately applies to a group that includes Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, and Kopech. 3 of those 4 guys have already shown success in the majors and Kopech is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball. The biggest question mark among those 4 is probably Rodon's injury recovery. Maybe there's a 50% success rate Hansen, Dunning, and Cease. I dunno - even so I'm still pretty optimistic about these guys.

Fulmer is the only one on the list I don't have high hopes for. I think his odds of making it as a MLB starting pitcher are fairly low. It's not zero, he could still get on track. But I don't have much hope for him.
Agreed. And just because one or more of them don’t make it as starters, doesn’t mean they won’t have value as relievers. I think Fulmer is destined for a high-leverage bullpen role, either as a closer or as a multi-inning guy who can get through a full lineup once.

Barring injury, Hansen, Kopech and Cease also have floors as high-leverage relievers. (In fact, all three of them could - if the Sox were so inclined - begin 2018 in the major league bullpen.) If that happened, we’re then looking at counting on one of Adams and Stephens to become a serviceable fifth starter, and then going to the free agent market or a trade for some starting pitching, and we’d have a spectacular bullpen.
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