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  #46  
Old 11-30-2017, 09:10 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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The problems we have with Avi and Abreu are that Avi had a likely flukey season when you look at his metrics and Abreu plays a non prime position. So even as good as his bat is, he is still an all bat 1b where there is no shortage of power right now.

If we could get Groome for Abreu you do it and don't think twice, but I am not sure that will be there. I am not a HUGE fan of Chavis because I think he is Matt Davidson with plus defense. I don't think the hit tool is going to be good enough to be above average.

If you could do Abreu for Bradley Jr. you probably consider it, but Bradley is going to be 28 when the year starts, so the likelyhood of getting the 5+ WAR CF from 2 years ago is down (but the idea Abreu is still going to be mashing at 33 in 2 years is also scary).

There was a REALLY interesting read on Garcia by at years end that broke down his changes. He was swinging at much better pitches. That said, his Batting Average of Balls in Play was insane, like truly insane, Mike Trout good. The problem is, the guys who sustain that are generally hitting about 25% or higher of those hits for line drives. Garcia was under 21%, looking low in the zone and hitting a fair amount of ground balls.

But as mentioned, he has really good exit velo off the bat. The question then becomes if he can fix his swing to get the ball up and use that Velo to increase his power and line drive rates, or if doing so is going to force him back into bad habits of years past.

So at the end of the day, you have 3 possible outcomes - This was a fluke year for Garcia, his BABIP will regress as will be. The first half is likely who he is, with a solid offensive season (think .310/.850 OPS) but not one of a true all-star/superstar (yes, I realize he was our All-Star last year.... but he probably wasn't one on a good team at the break). Or 3, his 2nd half indicates this was a scratch of the surface and he is about to really break out.

If you are Rick Hahn and your team is saying its the first 2 options, and you can get value for him, you move him. If you think the 3rd, at 26, you keep him.
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Last edited by Domeshot17; 11-30-2017 at 11:29 AM. Reason: rewording for clarity
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  #47  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:08 AM
MaggPipes MaggPipes is offline
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Ok. I understand that people have a wide ranging evaluation of Avi. I get that. BUT, saying that a .330 hitter probably was not an All-Star on a good team is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read.

Even if it was the most extreme fluke ever, if you hit .330 (anywhere in the modern era) you WILL be an All-Star. So, go ahead and believe what you want about his ability to come close to repeating, just don't say ridiculous things to try to support it like this.

Thanks!
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  #48  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:22 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The problems we have with Avi and Abreu are that Avi had a likely flukey season when you look at his metrics and Abreu plays a non prime position. So even as good as his bat is, he is still an all bat 1b where there is no shortage of power right now.

If we could get Groome for Abreu you do it and don't think twice, but I am not sure that will be there. I am not a HUGE fan of Chavis because I think he is Matt Davidson with plus defense. I don't think the hit tool is going to be good enough to be above average.

If you could do Abreu for Bradley Jr. you probably consider it, but Bradley is going to be 28 when the year starts, so the likelyhood of getting the 5+ WAR CF from 2 years ago is down (but the idea Abreu is still going to be mashing at 33 in 2 years is also scary).

There was a REALLY interesting read on Garcia by at years end that broke down his changes. He was swinging at much better pitches. That said, his Batting Average of Balls in Play was insane, like truly insane, Mike Trout good. The problem is, the guys who sustain that are generally hitting about 25% or higher of those hits for line drives. Garcia was under 21%, looking low in the zone and hitting a fair amount of ground balls.

But as mentioned, he has really good exit velo off the bat. The question then becomes if he can fix his swing to get the ball up and use that Velo to increase his power and line drive rates, or if doing so is going to force him back into bad habits of years past.

So at the end of the day, you have 3 possible outcomes - This was a fluke year for Garcia, his BABIP will regress as will be. This is who he is, with a solid offense season but not one of a true all-star/superstar (yes, I realize he was our All-Star last year.... but he probably wasn't one on a good team). Or 3, this was a scratch of the surface and he is about to really break out.

If you are Rick Hahn and your team is saying its the first 2 options, and you can get value for him, you move him. If you think the 3rd, at 26, you keep him.
Here is what we know now: Abreu is clearly better than Bradley, Jr. What we don't know now is which player will be better two years from now. However, based on what I've seen of both players, I'd rather take the risk on Abreu, who also provides value to the Sox beyond his on-field production. By the way, I would imagine at least 20 teams would take Abreu as an upgrade over their current 1B situation, so I don't view his production as being "dime-a-dozen" available. He is exceptional, especially so for the Sox.

Hahn should hang up and laugh if Bradley, Jr. is the best Boston is willing to offer.
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  #49  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:26 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by MaggPipes View Post
Ok. I understand that people have a wide ranging evaluation of Avi. I get that. BUT, saying that a .330 hitter probably was not an All-Star on a good team is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read.

Even if it was the most extreme fluke ever, if you hit .330 (anywhere in the modern era) you WILL be an All-Star. So, go ahead and believe what you want about his ability to come close to repeating, just don't say ridiculous things to try to support it like this.

Thanks!
At the all-star break he was hitting .310 with an .850 OPS and 11 homers. He hit .358 with a .933 OPS in the 2nd half.

I was more saying more that you think he is that .310/.850 guy and chalk the 2nd half to fluke, or you buy the 2nd half and you think the big breakout is coming.

I will edit my wording in the original post for clarity, sorry.
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  #50  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:28 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
At the all-star break he was hitting .310 with an .850 OPS and 11 homers. He hit .358 with a .933 OPS in the 2nd half.

I was more saying more that you think he is that .310/.850 guy and chalk the 2nd half to fluke, or you buy the 2nd half and you think the big breakout is coming.
But .310/.850 is a fine slash line. Either way he's a valuable piece.
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  #51  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:29 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by MaggPipes View Post
Ok. I understand that people have a wide ranging evaluation of Avi. I get that. BUT, saying that a .330 hitter probably was not an All-Star on a good team is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read.

Even if it was the most extreme fluke ever, if you hit .330 (anywhere in the modern era) you WILL be an All-Star. So, go ahead and believe what you want about his ability to come close to repeating, just don't say ridiculous things to try to support it like this.

Thanks!
The assessment of Avi's 2017 season is interesting- he had a HISTORIC season for this franchise with the 3rd or 4th highest batting average over a full season since WW2- at age 26, very promising.

I agree his high BABIP sets him up for some regression- but at age 26, for the most part healthy most of the season (excluding July), and following dropping 20 lbs in the offseason- I think it's more legit than people are giving him credit for.
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Players that are an important part of the rebuild:
Anderson, Fulmer, Giolito, Lopez, Moncada
Players that might be or could have trade value:
Abreu, Bummer, Davidson, Fry, A. Garcia, Jones, Sanchez
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  #52  
Old 11-30-2017, 11:36 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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But .310/.850 is a fine slash line. Either way he's a valuable piece.
Right, I am not disagreeing with that at all. an .850 OPS would be good for 40th-60th in the league most years. Above Average for sure. I just don't know if its a perennial all-star slash line at an offensive position like RF.
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  #53  
Old 11-30-2017, 04:13 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc
Hahn should hang up and laugh if Bradley, Jr. is the best Boston is willing to offer.
Seeing as how Bradley Jr. only comes with one more year of team control than Abreu, I donít think itís about acquiring Bradley Jr. to keep him. I think itís about acquiring Bradley Jr. and leveraging him to another team for more/better prospect ammo than Boston currently possesses, making the overall return better than any other proposed trades for Abreu. Bradley Jr. may end up being an effective ďPlan BĒ for teams that lose out on Lorenzo Cain or donít want to make a high financial commitment to Cain.
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  #54  
Old 11-30-2017, 04:22 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Seeing as how Bradley Jr. only comes with one more year of team control than Abreu, I donít think itís about acquiring Bradley Jr. to keep him. I think itís about acquiring Bradley Jr. and leveraging him to another team for more/better prospect ammo than Boston currently possesses, making the overall return better than any other proposed trades for Abreu. Bradley Jr. may end up being an effective ďPlan BĒ for teams that lose out on Lorenzo Cain or donít want to make a high financial commitment to Cain.
My view doesnít change if that is the plan. Actually, I say let Boston do the work in making it worthwhile for the Sox. Since Bradley is not good enough to headline a package, Boston should find a way to offer a better package.
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  #55  
Old 11-30-2017, 05:21 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc
Actually, I say let Boston do the work in making it worthwhile for the Sox. Since Bradley is not good enough to headline a package, Boston should find a way to offer a better package.
Honestly, I would rather have Rick Hahn working the phones on our own behalf than have Dave Dombrowski doing it. Look at what Hahn has has done with previous moves turning veterans into prospects. If anyone can get maximum value for Bradley Jr., Hahn can.

The only position players currently on the 40-man whom I am certain will play prominent roles on the franchiseís next legitimate contending team are Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez. Hahn can take any other position players on this 40-man and do anything he sees fit.
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  #56  
Old 11-30-2017, 06:13 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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My view doesnít change if that is the plan. Actually, I say let Boston do the work in making it worthwhile for the Sox. Since Bradley is not good enough to headline a package, Boston should find a way to offer a better package.
Exactly. The Sox can give DD a list of prospects they would take as headliners in an Abreu deal, and DD can do the work to trade JBJ (or other players) for one of those prospects. Hahn does not have to bear the risk of being stuck with JBJ.
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  #57  
Old 11-30-2017, 09:29 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The problems we have with Avi and Abreu are that Avi had a likely flukey season when you look at his metrics and Abreu plays a non prime position. So even as good as his bat is, he is still an all bat 1b where there is no shortage of power right now.
I agree that Abreu's trade value in the current markey is probably less than his value as a player.

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If we could get Groome for Abreu you do it and don't think twice, but I am not sure that will be there.
Why in the world would you do that? I wouldn't even think once about it. Abreu is worth far more to the team... playing on it... then Groome might be worth somewhere down the road. Groome might be the best we can get for Abreu (I think we can get more) but if he is then you simply don't trade Abreu because he is worth more than that to your team.

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I am not a HUGE fan of Chavis because I think he is Matt Davidson with plus defense. I don't think the hit tool is going to be good enough to be above average.
Yeah, I have my doubts about Chavis too. I just don't think we match up well with Boston unless they are willing to trade Devers which I'm sure they are not.

Quote:
If you could do Abreu for Bradley Jr. you probably consider it
Nope. Partially for the reasons you state below but mainly because Bradley really doesn't add anything to the team's long term plans.

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but Bradley is going to be 28 when the year starts, so the likelyhood of getting the 5+ WAR CF from 2 years ago is down (but the idea Abreu is still going to be mashing at 33 in 2 years is also scary).
I don't get that. Abreu, baring some sort of injury, will likely be hitting just fine at age 33. He is a far above average hitter today. At 33 you might start to see some decline but he should still be an above average hitter. Maybe with Moncada, Jiminez, and Robert in the line-up he moves down to 5th instead of third but frankly I think he still bats third and a year or two later (a year or two more experience for the three young guys) he moves down to 5th as his skills surely will be diminishing by then. Imagine a manager having to make the choice between pitching to a young slugger like Jiminez or pitching around him to get to the proven veteran Abreu that might not be at the top of his game any longer but knows what he is doing and is a proven run producer. Abreu at 33 is nowhere near as scary to me as he will be to opposing managers.


Garcia is a real quandary. I think he has turned a corner and will be a productive player from here on out. But will that be the .330 productive player we saw or a merely above average player? I have no clue. With the stack of talented outfielders coming up my inclination is to trade him now for the best offer you can get. But I go back and forth on that in my mind. If the Sox hold on to both Garcia and Abreu they are likely to be competitive in 2019 and certainly competitive in 2020. If they trade them then it is maybe 2020 and certainly 2021 even if Garcia is merely above average.
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  #58  
Old 12-01-2017, 03:58 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Exactly. The Sox can give DD a list of prospects they would take as headliners in an Abreu deal, and DD can do the work to trade JBJ (or other players) for one of those prospects. Hahn does not have to bear the risk of being stuck with JBJ.
If you're Boston why deal prospects when you can sign Hosmer?
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  #59  
Old 12-01-2017, 04:11 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is online now
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SouthSideSox posted that they think a team like the Red Sox and others are probably just kicking the tires on Abreu and maybe using him as leverage for free agents like Hosmer. I think that's probably right and as others have said, I don't think the Sox need to do anything unless they're blown away.

As for Avi, I think that he might be capable of consistently hitting .300 with an OPS in the neighborhood of .800, but I think he's going to hit more doubles than homers (which is fine). But, I'd want to make sure that he can repeat something similar to his 2017 performance before I extend him.
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  #60  
Old 12-01-2017, 05:47 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
If you're Boston why deal prospects when you can sign Hosmer?
Better contract. They are reported to like the salary and the two year length better than what it would take to land a FA.

I don't know if they think Abreu is a better player, but I do.

Abreu makes much more sense for Boston than Boston's trade bait does for us.
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