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  #1  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:13 AM
getonbckthr getonbckthr is offline
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Default Where Does Baseball Go From Here?

Let me start by saying I fully support the way the Cubs and Astros built their championship teams and how the Sox are attempting to do the same. However here's my question, How many teams are going to look at the past 2 seasons and decide instead of spending money on 2nd and 3rd tier free agents and take a shot at trying to compete and maybe win the division or wild card say screw it lets blow it up and suck for a couple seasons and build it from the ground up? MLB has to be somewhat concerned that you may have a 1/3 to 1/2 the league going that route. That would kill ratings and attendance and cost the league money I would think right?
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  #2  
Old 11-02-2017, 02:05 AM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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There have been far, far, far more teams that have attempted to tear it down and start from scratch, only to end up back at square one after a few seasons (I'm looking directly at you, Pirates and A's) than there have been teams that have been awful for a couple of years, hit the lottery on a few picks/signings and took that luck to a championship.

This isn't going to have any real effect on how teams operate. Two outlier results hardly constitutes a trend.
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  #3  
Old 11-02-2017, 05:01 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getonbckthr View Post
Let me start by saying I fully support the way the Cubs and Astros built their championship teams and how the Sox are attempting to do the same. However here's my question, How many teams are going to look at the past 2 seasons and decide instead of spending money on 2nd and 3rd tier free agents and take a shot at trying to compete and maybe win the division or wild card say screw it lets blow it up and suck for a couple seasons and build it from the ground up? MLB has to be somewhat concerned that you may have a 1/3 to 1/2 the league going that route. That would kill ratings and attendance and cost the league money I would think right?
Correct... If they follow the scenario you described, blow it up/tank, is really an admission that past management was pathetic when it came to building a top tier organization.

As you point out, busting the team out will influence revenue. All of this rests on the hope that the management you put in place is even capable of building a quality organization.
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  #4  
Old 11-02-2017, 07:29 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint View Post
There have been far, far, far more teams that have attempted to tear it down and start from scratch, only to end up back at square one after a few seasons (I'm looking directly at you, Pirates and A's) than there have been teams that have been awful for a couple of years, hit the lottery on a few picks/signings and took that luck to a championship.

This isn't going to have any real effect on how teams operate. Two outlier results hardly constitutes a trend.
Those teamsí efforts at rebuilds failed because they didnít spend the money to retain their home grown players, much less add to their home grown core.
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  #5  
Old 11-02-2017, 07:33 AM
johnny bench johnny bench is offline
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I'd think that blowing a team up tends to be a small market mindset team-building strategy as opposed to big free agent spending as a deep pockets strategy.

What drives spending is what teams do after winning the world series. The Royals are not reinvesting, but the Cubs, Giants, RedSox and certainly the Dodgers will be spending large dollars.

I'm interested to see which direction the Cardinals go because status quo is unacceptable in St Louis.
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  #6  
Old 11-02-2017, 10:00 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Those teams’ efforts at rebuilds failed because they didn’t spend the money to retain their home grown players, much less add to their home grown core.
Yep, let's not forget that the Cubs spent big $$ on FAs Lester, Zobrist, and Lackey (plus not-as-successful Heyward) to help put them over the top. I doubt they would have ended their 108-year drought without those guys.
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  #7  
Old 11-02-2017, 10:19 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Those teamsí efforts at rebuilds failed because they didnít spend the money to retain their home grown players, much less add to their home grown core.
I have mentioned this many, many times, but part of the problem with the Pirates was that until they brought in Neal Huntington, they had hardly any strategy whatsoever. They weren't even really rebuilding because they'd go out and sign a high priced guy like Derek Bell and trade away a guy like Aramis Ramirez. They had high draft picks but I remember reading an article where teams were literally laughing at the Pirates when they made their pick. That organization was a mess for a long long time.

I think you will see more emphasis placed on developing and retaining homegrown talent, but I suspect players are not going to be willing to be locked up long term the way Rizzo, Sale and Eaton were.
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  #8  
Old 11-02-2017, 11:03 AM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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If anything, other teams will copycat a winner.

The Astros title this year is the final vindication of the Moneyball philosophy, which they took to an even further level, but got slammed around the league by players, baseball lifers and the media with claims of treating people like numbers.

The key to the Astros rebuild was Luhnow's masterful manipulation of the signing bonus slot system, especially in the Correa, McCullers and Ruiz (traded for Gattis) year. Agents are more wise to this now, but I think teams (especially at the top of the draft) can still creatively work the slot system to sign players in high rounds away from college commitments.

The key component to me was running the front office with analytics and managing the team as people, using numbers as a tool.
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  #9  
Old 11-02-2017, 11:11 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
If anything, other teams will copycat a winner.

The Astros title this year is the final vindication of the Moneyball philosophy, which they took to an even further level, but got slammed around the league by players, baseball lifers and the media with claims of treating people like numbers.

The key to the Astros rebuild was Luhnow's masterful manipulation of the signing bonus slot system, especially in the Correa, McCullers and Ruiz (traded for Gattis) year. Agents are more wise to this now, but I think teams (especially at the top of the draft) can still creatively work the slot system to sign players in high rounds away from college commitments.

The key component to me was running the front office with analytics and managing the team as people, using numbers as a tool.
Can you explain a bit more of what the Astros actually did in terms of the slot bonus manipulation? I'd love to learn more about this stuff. If it's too long to type out perhaps you have a link you can post.
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  #10  
Old 11-02-2017, 11:33 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
If anything, other teams will copycat a winner.

The Astros title this year is the final vindication of the Moneyball philosophy, which they took to an even further level, but got slammed around the league by players, baseball lifers and the media with claims of treating people like numbers.

The key to the Astros rebuild was Luhnow's masterful manipulation of the signing bonus slot system, especially in the Correa, McCullers and Ruiz (traded for Gattis) year. Agents are more wise to this now, but I think teams (especially at the top of the draft) can still creatively work the slot system to sign players in high rounds away from college commitments.

The key component to me was running the front office with analytics and managing the team as people, using numbers as a tool.
I think most people, even at the time Moneyball came out, would agree that analytics and numbers can and should be used as a tool. The debate is about HOW that tool should be used. I also think Moneyball largely overlooked the contributions of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.
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  #11  
Old 11-02-2017, 11:59 AM
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The Astros and Cubs are not the first to do this and won't be last. Teams in all pro sports have been doing this for decades. Baseball will continue as always. Some teams are elite (a status that usually lasts no more than 5 years as players age up). Some are in the middle-they will be signing the A and B level free agents. Others are in rebuild (or sell) mode because they can't win a significant number of games with the current makeup and need an infusion of new blood.

Oh, and the Cubs rebuild was incomplete. They did not do anything for pitching depth and it showed in the playoffs this year. Imagine for a second what the Astros would have done to the Cubs' bullpen in the World Series. We would have felt sorry for the Cub fans it would have been that ugly. The Cubs built up position players and brought in older pitchers (Lester, Lackey and Arrieta) for a short term glory. While the Cubs' infield may be one of the best in MLB, there are not a lot of players in their system moving up to replace Rizzo and company in the event of injuries or trades (they will have to probably part with Russell or Rizzo for a high-end starter in a trade. I figure Bryant is off limits).
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  #12  
Old 11-02-2017, 12:51 PM
Jollyroger2 Jollyroger2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think most people, even at the time Moneyball came out, would agree that analytics and numbers can and should be used as a tool. The debate is about HOW that tool should be used. I also think Moneyball largely overlooked the contributions of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.
The Astros have gotten a lot of credit for using the analytics but also using their brains or guts too, which seems to be going out of style. That's why Hinch didn't lift pitchers just cause they got to 50 pitches or whatever.

Not only that, they did a great job identifying the dead spots they had in the lineup, even after their rebuild. What they had wasn't good enough to get past KC in 2015, and last year they had some injuries but underachieved. They went out and shaved the dead tissue and replaced them with more veterans, finally spending money. That stat they showed where they went from the team that was 27th worst in striking out to the best in the league in one season speaks volumes.
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  #13  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:27 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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The formative baseball years for me were the late 90's and early 2000's: this was the era where I first followed baseball very closely, followed the division races, watched every playoff game, etc.

During this time, the Playoffs were basically the same small number of teams over and over. In contrast, the modern era, with teams like Pittsburgh, Colorado, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City being in the mix, seems like a golden age of MLB parity. In my formative years, teams like KC were always bad, instead of alternating between being really bad and really good.

The NBA is trying to fight tanking by making draft order more random, but draft order might as well already be random in MLB because of how much tougher MLB prospects are to project forward and develop.
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  #14  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:27 PM
guillensdisciple guillensdisciple is offline
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I actually think the game is going through a resurgence, and expect that it will continue.
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  #15  
Old 11-02-2017, 02:31 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Iím more concerned about 50 percent of runs coming off homers next year.
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