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  #16  
Old 08-08-2013, 01:26 PM
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ChiSoxGal85 ChiSoxGal85 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Likewise, nobody cares whether or not their top draft pick is #4 or #7. It's all basically the same.
This. It's a couple of draft positions. IMO, it's a small price to pay for not suffering through another 10-game losing streak, or worse.
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  #17  
Old 08-08-2013, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Boondock Saint View Post
You can't pick guys who've already been drafted, so while it's more of a crapshoot, you want to have a deeper pool to choose from. Take 2007 as an example. If the Sox had just lost just two more games in 2007, they would have been in position to draft Buster Posey. That's not to say they would have drafted him, but it's a bit of a kick in the pants to think that two meaningless wins might have been the difference between drafting Gordon Beckham at #7 and drafting Buster Posey at #5.
The first pick overall in that draft, Tim Beckham, has yet to see The Show.

Of the six guys picked ahead of Gordon that year who have been in The Show (everyone except Tim Beckham), Gordon has the second highest WAR after Posey. It's a distant second, of course.
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  #18  
Old 08-08-2013, 01:35 PM
amsteel amsteel is offline
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I was wondering what arbitrary goal people were going to attach themselves to this year the way getting over 0.500 was last year.

Figured it would be avoiding 100 Ls, but this will do.
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  #19  
Old 08-08-2013, 01:37 PM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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The first pick overall in that draft, Tim Beckham, has yet to see The Show.

Of the six guys picked ahead of Gordon that year who have been in The Show (everyone except Tim Beckham), Gordon has the second highest WAR after Posey. It's a distant second, of course.
I get that, but a few wins means nothing in comparison to a better opportunity to draft a potential future building block for the future.
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  #20  
Old 08-08-2013, 01:44 PM
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I get that, but a few wins means nothing in comparison to a better opportunity to draft a potential future building block for the future.
It is much more difficult in baseball to spot that "can't miss" kid. The pool is very large with high school and any college player, not just seniors. The NBA and NFL are able to focus on about two dozen major college programs to find a dozen or so "can't miss" prospects for the draft (every now and then there is a LaBron in high school, but that is very rare). Also the concept of player development is very different in the NBA and NFL. The NHL has more of a MLB approach since they have minor league teams and development squads that practice with the big boys.

You just don't hear about big name kids leading up to the MLB draft like you do with the NBA and NFL. Even the top pick gets a blank response except from those who read all the scouting reports and follow the high school and college games.....
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  #21  
Old 08-08-2013, 02:45 PM
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Yeah, I don't understand this obsession with trying to get the best draft pick possible. This isn't basketball or football. The baseball draft is a complete crapshoot.

Mike Trout, the best young player in the game IMO, was selected 25th overall his draft year. Chris Sale, the best young player on our club, was selected 13th overall in 2010. You don't have to be drafting in the top 10 to get a good player, and even if the Sox get the No. 1 overall pick, they are hardly guaranteed of getting a future All-Star. In addition to scouting and development, there's a degree of luck involved.

I also don't understand this fear that a late-season winning streak will cause Hahn to deviate from his plan. First of all, I don't think a late-season winning streak is forthcoming. The team is bad. You see it. I see it. So does the front office. Secondly, the die is cast. They've already traded Peavy, and I'm sure they'll try to make a move with Rios and/or Dunn -- either before Sept. 1 or during the offseason. They would not have traded Jake if they were thinking of bringing the band back for one more run next year. That isn't going to happen.

As for the remaining 50 games of this season, I'm with the OP. Win as many as you can and try to get out of last place. Other than individual pursuits, there isn't a lot for the guys on the Sox roster to play for right now. They already know they aren't going to the playoffs. One of the things they can do to keep themselves mentally engaged in the season is say, "Hey, let's try to catch the team in front of us." Does it mean anything? Not really, but setting a goal like that is a way to keep guys playing hard at the end of a lost season. I'm all for that. I love to win and hate to lose. I have no patience for people who root against their own team to secure a better draft pick. Maybe that's why I'm not a big NFL or NBA fan. That mentality sucks, IMO. It's especially fruitless to do that when you know a higher draft pick doesn't guarantee a damn thing.
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  #22  
Old 08-08-2013, 03:07 PM
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I get that, but a few wins means nothing in comparison to a better opportunity to draft a potential future building block for the future.
So much of baseball future is dependent on internal scouting and development. The only time it really, really matters is when there's a legitimate "Can't Miss" guy in the draft, and that's when you want to be #1 and not #2. When Bryce Harper or Alex Rodriguez are available. And EVEN THEN, you occasionally find a Mark Prior.

If the Sox win a few more games this year because guys like Beckham, Viciedo, Quintana, and maybe even Johnson and Garcia play well and have something to build on for the 2014 season, that's going to have a far greater impact on the Sox's ability to re-right this ship than worrying whether or not some kid who won't be a member of this organization for possibly another 10 months gets picked 4th, 5th, 6th, etc.
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  #23  
Old 08-08-2013, 03:40 PM
SouthSideMike SouthSideMike is offline
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It would be nice to see them play better, but it's pretty meaningless to finish ahead of Minnesota. It's still a terrible season either way.

Also, I think people are underestimating how bad the Yankees are right now. They look terrible. Way too early to say this team has turned a corner because they beat a sagging Yankees team.
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  #24  
Old 08-08-2013, 03:46 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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If you get the first pick, you're not guaranteed a prospect who will make an impact, however, you are guaranteed to get the prospect you want. Plus you would be that much more likely to get the picks you want in the subsequent rounds as well.

In addition, you would have close to 60% (an extra 1.8 million) more in international signing allotment than the #7 pick, and roughly 2.5 times what the Sox received this year. That extra 60% would give the Sox room to sign an extra player for roughly the amount they signed their top international signing for this year, I forget his name, but I believe he was signed for under 1.8 million. Having the top pick would allow the sox to sign three of those guys and have more left over for lower tier international signings. It's a massive discrepancy.

Edit: Upon further review, Zapata was signed for 1.6 mil. At #1 pick, the Sox would be able to sign three of those guys. At #7, the Sox would be able to sign one and a couple second tier, or possibly two top tier.

I'd say between having the #1 overall pick and the ability to sign at least one if not two more top tier international players the difference is substantial.
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  #25  
Old 08-08-2013, 09:09 PM
DSpivack DSpivack is offline
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If you get the first pick, you're not guaranteed a prospect who will make an impact, however, you are guaranteed to get the prospect you want. Plus you would be that much more likely to get the picks you want in the subsequent rounds as well.

In addition, you would have close to 60% (an extra 1.8 million) more in international signing allotment than the #7 pick, and roughly 2.5 times what the Sox received this year. That extra 60% would give the Sox room to sign an extra player for roughly the amount they signed their top international signing for this year, I forget his name, but I believe he was signed for under 1.8 million. Having the top pick would allow the sox to sign three of those guys and have more left over for lower tier international signings. It's a massive discrepancy.

Edit: Upon further review, Zapata was signed for 1.6 mil. At #1 pick, the Sox would be able to sign three of those guys. At #7, the Sox would be able to sign one and a couple second tier, or possibly two top tier.

I'd say between having the #1 overall pick and the ability to sign at least one if not two more top tier international players the difference is substantial.
The Sox and Marlins have identical records at 2nd worst behind Houston, who is 6.5 games worse than either Chicago or Florida. After those 3, it's about a 5-game dropoff to the Royals and Brewers. I think the Sox will likely be drafting in the top 3, but not #1 overall.
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  #26  
Old 08-09-2013, 09:59 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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I don't want the Sox to have the dubious distinction of losing 100 games let alone break the all time franchise record of 106 losses. But, other than that, it's really rather meaningless to me whether we finish 5th or 4th. It's hard to get excited about battling Minn for 4th.

I'm not rooting for draft pick position, but if the Sox get top 3 or top 2 it's possible that could mean a future star or at least a solid MLB player. Our division rivals got Mauer and Verlander as either #1 or #2 picks. Evan Longoria was #3 in 2006. But then again, Kershaw, Lincecum, and Scherzer were # 7, 10, and 11 that same year.
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  #27  
Old 08-09-2013, 10:35 AM
cws05champ cws05champ is offline
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I don't want the Sox to have the dubious distinction of losing 100 games let alone break the all time franchise record of 106 losses. But, other than that, it's really rather meaningless to me whether we finish 5th or 4th. It's hard to get excited about battling Minn for 4th.

I'm not rooting for draft pick position, but if the Sox get top 3 or top 2 it's possible that could mean a future star or at least a solid MLB player. Our division rivals got Mauer and Verlander as either #1 or #2 picks. Evan Longoria was #3 in 2006. But then again, Kershaw, Lincecum, and Scherzer were # 7, 10, and 11 that same year.
Same here...I don't want them to lose 106 games but catching Minnesota means nothing to me. I would rather they get the #2 overall pick and increased Int'l bonus money as stated earlier. I understand there are no guarantees with any draft pick, but if the Sox have the chance to get a Carlos Rodon or Tyler Beede, a top of the rotation guy that is not that far away, it is worth sucking for a year. Yes those guys could not pan out or blow out their arm, but they could also help turn around the Sox in a year or two.

It's not too hard to see the Sox competing in 2 years with a rotation of Sale, Danks, Rodon, Johnson, Quintana. And with a low priced rotation and bullpen, the Sox could pour money into the offense through FA, or maybe they get some surprises through their system.
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  #28  
Old 08-09-2013, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
If you get the first pick, you're not guaranteed a prospect who will make an impact, however, you are guaranteed to get the prospect you want. Plus you would be that much more likely to get the picks you want in the subsequent rounds as well.

In addition, you would have close to 60% (an extra 1.8 million) more in international signing allotment than the #7 pick, and roughly 2.5 times what the Sox received this year. That extra 60% would give the Sox room to sign an extra player for roughly the amount they signed their top international signing for this year, I forget his name, but I believe he was signed for under 1.8 million. Having the top pick would allow the sox to sign three of those guys and have more left over for lower tier international signings. It's a massive discrepancy.

Edit: Upon further review, Zapata was signed for 1.6 mil. At #1 pick, the Sox would be able to sign three of those guys. At #7, the Sox would be able to sign one and a couple second tier, or possibly two top tier.

I'd say between having the #1 overall pick and the ability to sign at least one if not two more top tier international players the difference is substantial.
This is actually the best point that has been raised in this thread and I will agree that it made me do a quick double take on my position but I ultimately still feel that the immediate progress of your MLB ready younger players is more important than the ability to sign one or two 16 year olds from the Dominican Republic in July. Plus, unlike draft picks, you can swap international money around in player deals, so if the Sox are really serious about stepping up their game in Latin America, that can still be accomplished without me having to sit through a 100-loss season.

I guess my overall point isn't that I necessarily care if the Sox lose 90 or 100 games, but if the young guys like Garcia, Beckham, Sale, etc. spark a small, ultimately pointless winning streak in 2013, that will be fine with me even if it means the Sox have to settle for a Top 5-6 draft pick instead of a Top 2-3.

And, let's be real here, the Yankees looked absolutely putrid this week. I was at the game Monday and it felt like we were playing ourselves. Bad defense, bad baserunning, bad clutch offense, bad bullpen. They're a pretty terrible team right now. Sweeping them at home offers me no hope the Sox will actually put together a few wins in a row here. We still have mounds of problems.
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  #29  
Old 08-09-2013, 11:01 AM
tstrike2000 tstrike2000 is offline
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Yeah, let's catch up and pass Minnesota. We need another Fourth Place banner to go with the others on the outfield wall.......
Maybe instead of acknowledging a place, they can just give all the players a ribbon.

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  #30  
Old 08-09-2013, 12:32 PM
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Likewise, nobody cares whether or not their top draft pick is #4 or #7. It's all basically the same.
Actually there may be. FWIW---According to this analysis done in 06, the success rate of Picks 1-5 is 48% whereas 6-10 is 39%.

http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog...picks-by-slot/
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