Baseball Prospectus pick Sox 2nd!!!

[thedudeabides]

Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck

Yeah, I don't know. I like PECOTA because they absolutely nail some things, but BP treats the system (within their articles) with a good deal of skepticism. They cede to the projections from time to time in analysis, but I think that the attitude given off in their advertising of PECOTA (scary close, or something to that effect) does not match their sentiments as presented in articles.

Dishonest? Perhaps, but they've got to solicit subscriptions somewhere, and PECOTA is something that Fangraphs (who write horrid articles, 40% of the time) and Hardball Times don't have.

I pay for Kevin Goldstein, mainly, and Will Carroll. I know too much about the White Sox -- being a fan and all -- to put too much stock in what they say about us. But, I love MLB, so I like to read various opinions.

They are living off a couple of good predictions, mainly the 2008 Rays. Other than that it's pretty awful.

After last seasons predictions, I didn't know anyone took these seriously anymore.

Chone wasn't any better, but I do like their methods a bit more.

[Lip Man 1]

This is funny.

What morons.

Lip

[mzh]

Originally Posted by Bump34

BP has the Twins winning 82 games to win AL Central... the White Sox are 2nd with 79...

Only once in Major league history has a team won a division with 82 or less wins, the 2005 San Diego Padres, and with all due respect I think even this weak AL Central is better than that awful year for that division

[Craig Grebeck]

Originally Posted by Lip Man 1

This is funny.

What morons.

Lip

BP does not subscripe to groupthink.

Originally Posted by thedudeabides

They are living off a couple of good predictions, mainly the 2008 Rays. Other than that it's pretty awful.

After last seasons predictions, I didn't know anyone took these seriously anymore.

Chone wasn't any better, but I do like their methods a bit more.

I don't think it's awful. What makes you say that?

[PalehosePlanet]

Originally Posted by asindc

If we can limit Linebrink to about 20 innings or less in the first half of the season, then maybe.

I know it will be impossible to make some of you even consider the possibility, but I actually think Linebrink will have a good year, barring injury.

His velocity was back up to normal at the end of last year, so it would appear that he is fully healthy again. If he can get a feel for his split and changeup early in the year, he'll be rock solid.

[asindc]

Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck

BP does not subscripe to groupthink.

I don't think it's awful. What makes you say that?

Well, whatever think they are subscribing to, they should think again.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by asindc

Well, whatever think they are subscribing to, they should think again.

They have the Nats picked for 82-80!

[PalehosePlanet]

Originally Posted by mzh

Only once in Major league history has a team won a division with 82 or less wins, the 2005 San Diego Padres, and with all due respect I think even this weak AL Central is better than that awful year for that division

The Mets won the NL East back in '73 with 82 wins.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Lip Man 1

This is funny.

What morons.

Lip

Lip's trying to pick a fight with all those scary numbers under his bed.

[TommyJohn]

Originally Posted by PalehosePlanet

The Mets won the NL East back in '73 with 82 wins.

And were in the World Series.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Lip Man 1

This is funny.

What morons.

Lip

P.S. Baseball Prospectus were 5 games off the Sox's actual record in 2009. THEY DON'T KNOW ****!!!!!!!!!

[Sam Spade]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

They have the Nats picked for 82-80!

What the hell?

[DumpJerry]

Originally Posted by mzh

Only once in Major league history has a team won a division with 82 or less wins, the 2005 San Diego Padres, and with all due respect I think even this weak AL Central is better than that awful year for that division

Originally Posted by PalehosePlanet

The Mets won the NL East back in '73 with 82 wins.

The 2006 Cardinals won 83 games and the World Series.

Ok, so they played the Tigers in the World Series, but it should still count....

[Noneck]

They actually pick the Sox to tie for 2nd. That seems what most experts are thinking.

79 does seem a little low for the over/under, but we shall see soon enough.

[Chicago5oooh]

Originally Posted by doublem23

P.S. Baseball Prospectus were 5 games off the Sox's actual record in 2009. THEY DON'T KNOW ****!!!!!!!!!

I like PECOTA, I find it interesting but the reality is that being off 5 wins is actually significant. You have a 10 win swing there. If I say the sox will win 85 games this year they can win 80-90 and I will be within 5 games. I still like the system, I just don't pretend it's more than an educated guess.