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  #16  
Old 08-21-2009, 10:59 PM
The Tom The Tom is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konerko05 View Post
Why not?
Because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) would have to be nearly .500, which is not a sustainable pace. I suppose it's not impossible, as a previous poster has stated, but exactly ZERO players have accomplished that mark over the course of an entire season. Ted Williams' best ever was below .450, the league average is around .300 this season, and even when David Wright was leading the league in hitting earlier this season I believe he topped at around .436 (and that was just for a couple months). It's just not going to happen. Even if he was FAR above the league average, striking out 1 of 3 times at MLB level would drastically reduce his value.
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  #17  
Old 08-22-2009, 12:24 AM
Konerko05 Konerko05 is offline
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Originally Posted by The Tom View Post
Because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) would have to be nearly .500, which is not a sustainable pace. I suppose it's not impossible, as a previous poster has stated, but exactly ZERO players have accomplished that mark over the course of an entire season. Ted Williams' best ever was below .450, the league average is around .300 this season, and even when David Wright was leading the league in hitting earlier this season I believe he topped at around .436 (and that was just for a couple months). It's just not going to happen. Even if he was FAR above the league average, striking out 1 of 3 times at MLB level would drastically reduce his value.
The key word there was "mathematically."
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  #18  
Old 08-22-2009, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Randar68 View Post
Last year at this time he'd just signed a contract as a Junior coming out of college and this year he's played well at AA when healthy.

Guess that doesn't matter if he strikes out a bunch?
Follow your arguments, I was merely saying the K-rate for minor league players is a worthwhile stat. I couldn't care less whether Jordan Danks succeeds or crashes and burns.
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  #19  
Old 08-22-2009, 01:03 PM
35th and Shields 35th and Shields is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konerko05 View Post
The key word there was "mathematically."
It's impossible to get on base at .375 if you strike out every 1 out 3 PA's.
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  #20  
Old 08-22-2009, 01:36 PM
Konerko05 Konerko05 is offline
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Originally Posted by 35th and Shields View Post
It's impossible to get on base at .375 if you strike out every 1 out 3 PA's.
It might be improbable, but it's not mathematically impossible.
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  #21  
Old 08-22-2009, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Konerko05 View Post
It might be improbable, but it's not mathematically impossible.
It's also mathematically possible to get on base at a 1.000 clip in any amount of at bats. The point is that it's not going to happen.
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  #22  
Old 08-22-2009, 02:51 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
I couldn't care less whether Jordan Danks succeeds or crashes and burns.


Given that he's "Sox property" for several more years at a low cost, I care deeply, and moreover hope he becomes the next Rickey Henderson.
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  #23  
Old 08-22-2009, 03:13 PM
DirtySox DirtySox is offline
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http://twitter.com/BhamBarons/status/3476464642

Jordan will be taken off the DL tonight, but might not return to action as this move seems to be made to keep him eligible for the AFL.

Eligibility Rules
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  #24  
Old 08-22-2009, 03:16 PM
Konerko05 Konerko05 is offline
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It's also mathematically possible to get on base at a 1.000 clip in any amount of at bats. The point is that it's not going to happen.
I didn't say it was going to happen.

I just said it wasn't mathematically impossible in response to guillen4life.
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  #25  
Old 08-22-2009, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post


Given that he's "Sox property" for several more years at a low cost, I care deeply, and moreover hope he becomes the next Rickey Henderson.


I've seen plenty of highly touted Sox prospects fall apart. I'd love for Jordan to turn into an All-Star, but he's not the keystone of the next 10-15 years. With or without, the Sox will push on. I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.
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  #26  
Old 08-22-2009, 05:05 PM
Craig Grebeck Craig Grebeck is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post


I've seen plenty of highly touted Sox prospects fall apart. I'd love for Jordan to turn into an All-Star, but he's not the keystone of the next 10-15 years. With or without, the Sox will push on. I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.
This is just mind-numbingly stupid. I have no idea where to begin.
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  #27  
Old 08-22-2009, 06:37 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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I understand the concern about his K rate and how it needs to improve. But since this is essentially his first season in the minors (he played only 10 games late last year), he has jumped AA, and he's been battling an injury most of the season; isn't it too early to worry that Danks is becoming another failed prospect?
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  #28  
Old 08-23-2009, 02:21 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Give the dude time, don't make a judgment so soon--either good or bad.
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  #29  
Old 08-23-2009, 11:57 AM
jabrch jabrch is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.
I certainly understand that point. Until we have a guy ready to go, he is back of the burner. I'll keep an eye on the low minors, just to stay informed, but the hell if I am going to pretend that any of these guys in the low minors are significant to what really matters. I care - I hope they all are stars or that they have enough trade value to get us pieces of importance. But they won't be.

I do think some people make individual players and choices made with the farm out to be more important than it really is. I mean - we traded HOFers away at an astounding pace (Reed, Young, etc.) If only they would have stayed here, had the right coaching, etc. - they'd be well on the way to Cooperstown.

And at this point it is far far far to early to have an informed opinion to call Danks a bust.
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  #30  
Old 08-26-2009, 06:31 PM
The Tom The Tom is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konerko05 View Post
The key word there was "mathematically."
I didn't even use the word "mathematically." It has nothing to do with math and everything to do with the fact that no player has ever sustained the rate that Danks would have to maintain to achieve that BA and continue to strike out at an astronomical rate. Hopefully he'll improve the K rate and carry a good average as a pro, but he doesn't have the power to make it if he doesn't.
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