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Old 08-15-2019, 08:12 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Nova pitched 37 innings in five games, and easily could have had a second CG in that span. That's a very valuable month+.

Taking the ERA at face value, Nova gave up very few earned runs. That's reality, and it explains why he was able to last deep into games.

What jumped out at me was his very low strikeout numbers. Since strikeouts are major contributors to stats like SIERA and xFIP, that's why those stats didn't like his performances. But let's say Nova just had a stretch where he was throwing his sinker really well. Batters were jumping on his sinkers early and beating them into the ground. That resulted in quick outs.

I think this may point to a flaw in SIERA and xFIP. Yes, Nova is bound to regress anyway, because he outpitched his career and recent numbers...but does he have the ability to outperform xFIP consistently?
Here's an Athletic piece about Nova just now!
Ridiculousness across all sports:

(1) "You have no valid opinion because you never played the game."
(2) "Stats are irrelevant. This guy just doesn't know how to win."
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:07 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox View Post
The center fielder calls the shots in the outfield. That's basic baseball. All three were arriving at the spot the ball was falling simultaneously. There's no way it was Jiminez's ball. A left fielder should always yield to a center fielder who has a clear play on the ball.

The comments indicate that nobody else saw the play, so I'll leave it at that.
I didn't see the play. I did look up and see him smiling after catching it.

My comment was more intended as a general comment and I stand by it. He and all corner OF will make plays outside their zone. All players do. Other players need to recognize that and give way to them also. If the CF/SS can hear the LF/RF calling for a ball they should give way and not call him off. That's just smart team baseball.

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:14 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Here's an Athletic piece about Nova just now!
A good piece, but Fegan wants to have it both ways.

First he quotes Renteria: "Working down below the zone still works in today’s game," Renteria said with some satisfaction. "As much as everyone talks about the elevation and this and that."

(I think Ricky is making a dangerous extrapolation here, but that's for another thread.)

And then Fegan concludes by pointing to the statistics.

"...with his contact rates trending up throughout and metrics like FIP, DRA and others still suggesting Nova’s more likely to be a below-average pitcher going forward than anything else".

There's no question that you need to strike out batters for these metrics to love you, but on the field strikeouts count no more than any other outs. A pitcher who can reliably get outs with ground balls instead of strikeouts will perform well even as the stats say he shouldn't. If he fails to get the outs, bad things will happen, same as if a strikeout pitcher fails to get the outs. (See: Chris Sale 2019, whose ERA is a run higher than his FIP. Not too long ago I called him unlucky, but now I'm thinking there's more to it.)

I don't know if Nova is that pitcher. He undoubtedly has been for the last month. Over his career his FIP has only been a little higher than his ERA (4.41 vs 4.29). Over the last three seasons he has beaten his FIP by more.
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Old 08-15-2019, 12:16 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
A good piece, but Fegan wants to have it both ways.
Advanced stats like FIP and DRA are more predictive of future success than ERA. But no single stat tells the whole story. There are ways to succeed by pitching to contact, but they are less reliable than the high-K approach that is favored by the advanced stats. The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in the middle.
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