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  #391  
Old 10-31-2019, 02:40 PM
Streets Streets is online now
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After reading about the horrible front office environment, watching the organization willingly sign an domestic violence abuser and then have their assistant GM flaunt that signing in front of three women in the locker room, one whom was wearing a domestic violence awareness bracelet.

Then watching the Astros try to discredit that journalist and deny their employee said what he said?

Yeah, I'm glad the Astros lost.

Go Nats.
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  #392  
Old 10-31-2019, 02:48 PM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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Anytime Justin Verlander loses, I'm a happy guy, and yeah, **** the Astros.
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  #393  
Old 10-31-2019, 04:05 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
50% chance is better than any other approach you can take in that situation.
The 50 percent thing isn't even accurate. Most baseball percentages and metrics don't have the meaning placed on them because they were determined without controls or context. You aren't looking at 50 percent success when a player who works on scoring a runner from third with one out focuses on driving in that run, perhaps shortening his swing, protecting the plate with two strikes. I have no reason to believe Rendon wasn't trying to hit a sacrifice fly when he popped up for the second out in the ninth. All I know is that he didn't execute.

Baseball is a game that produces percentages, and in that sense it is a game of percentages. If managerial decisions are based solely on those decisions (and with the Moneyball A's it had more to do with getting the most production out of what they could afford to spend), the percentages perpetuate themselves.

Winning baseball isn't looking at the percentages and deciding not to focus on scoring the runner from third with less than one out or advancing a leadoff double to third when you have a one-run lead in the ninth inning in a game that could win you the World Series. It's working to execute in those situations. In the above cases, Rowand's failed sacrifice attempt, Rendon's pop out didn't affect the outcome. In fact, going into the bottom of the ninth 14 years ago with a 1-0 lead and watching Uribe take over the game on defense looms large in the 2005 legend.

Still, if you want to insist that advancing runners and scoring runners from third with less than two out have lost their meaning in today's game, I would suggest that the team that works on executing yesterday's fundamentals would produce teams that could beat today's best teams on their terms, and make baseball more fun to watch in the process.

Sales of Astroball: The New Way to Win it All (still Amazon's best seller in baseball coaching, way ahead, sadly of Charley Lau's Art of Hitting .300.) can't be helped by a 10-8 postseason run culminating with four home losses in the World Series.
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  #394  
Old 10-31-2019, 04:17 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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I never said not to try to get a runner home from 3B. What I said was that the consternation it causes when players fail to do it is disproportionate to the actual failure rate of that play.
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  #395  
Old 10-31-2019, 04:33 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
I never said not to try to get a runner home from 3B. What I said was that the consternation it causes when players fail to do it is disproportionate to the actual failure rate of that play.

You inflate the failure rate of the play in the process by referencing uncontrolled percentages.
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  #396  
Old 10-31-2019, 06:33 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
You inflate the failure rate of the play in the process by referencing uncontrolled percentages.
The entire point is that the failure rate is not inflated or deflated by recent changes to the game. It has been between 50% and 60% since the Ď60s. Itís a little bit better than a coin flip.
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  #397  
Old 10-31-2019, 06:38 PM
Paulwny Paulwny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The entire point is that the failure rate is not inflated or deflated by recent changes to the game. It has been between 50% and 60% since the Ď60s. Itís a little bit better than a coin flip.
You are correct.

Runner on Third, < 2 Out
Decade Success% R/PA 3rd, < 2 Out K% Overall K%
1950s 50.1% 0.64 10.9% 11.4%
1960s 47.5% 0.61 14.4% 15.0%
1970s 48.6% 0.61 13.3% 13.5%
1980s 51.7% 0.64 13.0% 14.0%
1990s 52.3% 0.66 14.4% 15.9%
2000s 51.8% 0.66 14.8% 17.0%
2010s 50.7% 0.64 17.3% 20.0%
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
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  #398  
Old 10-31-2019, 07:15 PM
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As I said, the numbers that put this at a coin flip are irrelevant because it isn't limited to players focused on getting the run home situations where getting the run home isn't an objective, i.e. down by three with one out in the ninth.


The numbers have no controls and are out of context.
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  #399  
Old 11-02-2019, 04:48 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Just got back from the Nationals World Series parade on the National Mall. Biggest difference between it and the 2005 White Sox Parade: so many of the players had a cell phone in their hand, either taking selfies on top of the bus or taking a video of the crowd. Obviously the iPhone was still 2 years away for the Sox parade down LaSalle.
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  #400  
Old 11-02-2019, 06:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Just got back from the Nationals World Series parade on the National Mall. Biggest difference between it and the 2005 White Sox Parade: so many of the players had a cell phone in their hand, either taking selfies on top of the bus or taking a video of the crowd. Obviously the iPhone was still 2 years away for the Sox parade down LaSalle.

A friend sent me a recording of the White Sox 2005 parade, and as I recall, Tadahito Iguchi was wearing a video headset. I was still doing film in 2005 and was years away from any sort of cell phone.
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  #401  
Old 11-02-2019, 10:24 PM
cub killer cub killer is offline
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Tadahito had a bluetooth in his ear.

The Nats are the 1st team since us to win it all after losing their team leader from the year before.

Theirs to free agency, ours to injury for almost all the season, including all of October.
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I was a doubter, but maybe, just maybe we can win with pitching, defense and fundamentals.
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  #402  
Old 11-02-2019, 10:55 PM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cub killer View Post
Tadahito had a bluetooth in his ear.

The Nats are the 1st team since us to win it all after losing their team leader from the year before.

Theirs to free agency, ours to injury for almost all the season, including all of October.
I assume you’re referring to Big Frank. I’m not sure I’d really call him a leader of the 2005 team. That was still probably Ozzie, in my opinion. Paulie and Buehrle were some major contributors as well. Let’s also not forget Rowand. He ran that outfield beautifully that year. I still remember how bittersweet it was when the Sox traded him for Thome.
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  #403  
Old 11-02-2019, 11:30 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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The Harper analogue is Magglio Ordonez. We really hated that guy after he left, remember? The Nats fans despise Harper now.
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  #404  
Old 11-02-2019, 11:40 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JermaineDye05 View Post
I assume youíre referring to Big Frank. Iím not sure Iíd really call him a leader of the 2005 team. That was still probably Ozzie, in my opinion. Paulie and Buehrle were some major contributors as well. Letís also not forget Rowand. He ran that outfield beautifully that year. I still remember how bittersweet it was when the Sox traded him for Thome.
I think the reference is to Magglio
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  #405  
Old 11-03-2019, 12:25 AM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoosiersoxfan View Post
I think the reference is to Magglio
He was on the Tigers in 2005. Frank was on the team for about two months. I want to say July and August before he went back on the DL. Though I take your point, Frank wasn’t the team leader in 2004 either.
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