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  #61  
Old 10-18-2017, 10:43 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
When the numbers catch up to the hype then we'll talk.
Ranking among active players based on career stats:

OBP: 6th
SLG: 11th
OPS: 8th
ADJ OPS+: 7th
AB per HR: 13th
ROY
MVP
5 ASGs

That's pretty good. His downside has been injury more than anything.
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  #62  
Old 10-18-2017, 11:22 PM
shes shes is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Ranking among active players based on career stats:

OBP: 6th
SLG: 11th
OPS: 8th
ADJ OPS+: 7th
AB per HR: 13th
ROY
MVP
5 ASGs

That's pretty good. His downside has been injury more than anything.
Seriously -- what more can you ask except that the guy stay on the field more often? He's been a stud and will be an elite player for the next decade.

Anyway, it'll cost 400M to get him, not 200M, so you can certainly count out the Sox, who have never even ponied up 70M for a single player.
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  #63  
Old 10-19-2017, 09:06 AM
Zisk77 Zisk77 is offline
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Originally Posted by JB98 View Post
Davidson is more than adequate? You're watching a different player than I am. Davidson struck out 165 times this season and drew only 19 walks. I'm sorry, but a .220/.260/.452 slash doesn't cut it for me, especially for a player who provides no utility defensively or on the basepaths. Yes, 26 home runs. That's nice. But 2017 was a season that saw baseballs fly out of parks at historic rates. Hitting 26 home runs isn't particularly special anymore, because there's about 30 guys in each league who did that. And Davidson provides literally nothing else. Maybe he's a bridge guy at 3B; that's fine, but he's not going to be here the next time the Sox contend.

Burger? Way too early to pencil him into any long-term plans, and I'm not overly enthused with the early returns.

Honestly, I don't think I'd be bothered if the Sox cut ties with Davidson. Yolmer Sanchez outplayed him by a wide, wide margin and got most of the starts at 3B late in the year. And rightfully so, I might add.


This was Davidson's first year in the big leagues, we don't actually really know what he is yet. With experience he should walk more and strike out less. Yes he hit 26 homers, he also missed a lot of games with injury. I think its safe to say he would have hit well over 30 homers if healthy. We are so quick on this board to judge whether a young player is good or bad on the this board and dismiss him. See Avi, Crede, Garland, & Konerko on our sox and many others including Ortiz, Hunter, Hosmer, Moustakas, & Gordon on other teams. Davidson may very well be what you claim, or worse, but its way too early to tell and he is more than adequate for now. Was Sanchez's increased playing time solely because he outplayed Davidson or was it at least somewhat that Matt was hit in the wrist by a pitch?

Nobody, said burger was being penciled in. Its too early to pencil in pretty much anybody elloy, roberts, kopech, etc. That wasn't the issue. I was addressing that 3b is is a glaring void that must be filled...by some with Arrenado or Machado. I said Catcher was our great position player need. Am I wrong?
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  #64  
Old 10-19-2017, 09:13 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shes View Post
Seriously -- what more can you ask except that the guy stay on the field more often? He's been a stud and will be an elite player for the next decade.

Anyway, it'll cost 400M to get him, not 200M, so you can certainly count out the Sox, who have never even ponied up 70M for a single player.
A couple of years ago, a reporter was interviewing Bryce and mentioned 400M as the potential future value of his contract. Bryce's response was "don't sell me short, man" or something to that effect.

It's why I suspect he'll go for the biggest contract offered to him, rather than to NYY/LAD/CHC or whatever other team he is rumored to be a fan of at the moment.
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  #65  
Old 10-19-2017, 09:48 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
When the numbers catch up to the hype then we'll talk.
When you say things like this, please realize the numbers are there to blow this idea up.

His 9.9 WAR season is one of the best seasons EVER by a player. I think there are maybe 2 or 3 active players who have had a better year, and it ranks in the top 60 best seasons ever.

This year, he put nearly 5 war in 111 games.

This 162 game average numbers are great. The comparisons to Abreu are kind of silly, mainly because of Harper's injuries. Sure, take 2017, they both had identical WAR of 4.7, similar power numbers, similar OPS, but it took Abreu 200 more ABs to get there.

Like I said, I am all for someone saying Harper isn't worth the money because you likely won't get many full seasons..... but holy cow, this is a 25 year old, who just turned 25, and is just entering the best years of his career.
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  #66  
Old 10-19-2017, 09:59 AM
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Chez Chez is offline
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I predict Harper will sign with the Cubs. And platoon in RF with Zobrist.
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  #67  
Old 10-19-2017, 10:30 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
I predict Harper will sign with the Cubs. And platoon in RF with Zobrist.
Players who get big contracts don't typically go into platoons.
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  #68  
Old 10-19-2017, 10:43 AM
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Chez Chez is offline
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
Players who get big contracts don't typically go into platoons.

Teal was implied. Sorry. Though Jason Heyward may disagree!
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  #69  
Old 10-19-2017, 10:44 AM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Originally Posted by GoSox2K3 View Post
I wouldn't mind having Harper on the Sox. You can't compare signing a 24 year old (forgive the term) superstar to signing a 31-year old low avg, high strikeout slugger (Dunn).

That being said, there is almost no chance the Sox will sign him. Considering what his asking price will be, the money might be better spent on other top-line FAs to fill whatever roster needs we have by 2019 or 2020.

I hope he stays in Washington. I hate the idea that so many of baseball's top stars end up in Yankee pinstripes (or in Boston) when they hit free agency. I certainly don't want him on the Cubs, either!
The Yankees are mostly home-grown these days. As for the Cubs, I'd be disgusted if Harper ends up there. It would have a
'Lebron taking his talents to South Beach' feel to it. The Cubs have already positioned themselves to make the playoffs at least the next two seasons barring injuries. I really don't want to see what the local media does if Harper comes to town.
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  #70  
Old 10-19-2017, 11:44 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
Teal was implied. Sorry. Though Jason Heyward may disagree!
Touche!
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  #71  
Old 10-19-2017, 02:00 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
When you say things like this, please realize the numbers are there to blow this idea up.

His 9.9 WAR season is one of the best seasons EVER by a player. I think there are maybe 2 or 3 active players who have had a better year, and it ranks in the top 60 best seasons ever.

This year, he put nearly 5 war in 111 games.

This 162 game average numbers are great. The comparisons to Abreu are kind of silly, mainly because of Harper's injuries. Sure, take 2017, they both had identical WAR of 4.7, similar power numbers, similar OPS, but it took Abreu 200 more ABs to get there.

Like I said, I am all for someone saying Harper isn't worth the money because you likely won't get many full seasons..... but holy cow, this is a 25 year old, who just turned 25, and is just entering the best years of his career.
The numbers are what they are. There are all sorts of caveats about age and injury, etc. but reality is that at this moment in time Abreu has done more in four years than Harper has in six. I'm not making any sort of judgment call in saying that, simply pointing out the facts.

Like I said, I think Harper is a superb ball player and will likely only get better. I just don't see a need to shell out such big dollars for him or tons of prospects for Stanton or Trout or anyone else.

Quote:
but it took Abreu 200 more ABs to get there.
And as I showed, in two more years, and basically one more years worth of games and at-bats, Harper barely has more hits, homers, RBI, etc than Abreu has. So let's call that one a draw.

As for war... it's useful but I'll take real stats over war any day.
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  #72  
Old 10-19-2017, 02:46 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
As for war... it's useful but I'll take real stats over war any day.
WAR is a real stat. It's a summation of a player's statistics into a single metric which defines how good they play versus the average player. Even if you ignore WAR, you aren't taking into account how much better of a defender and baserunner Harper is versus Abreu. There is a reason why Jose is playing first and not an outfield position.

A front office will probably give $400 million to Bryce Harper because he's probably worth it. The market will dictate as such. If the contract length is 10 years, he'll likely be worth the total amount by the end of the first 7 years in terms of his production and marketability (tickets, jersey sales, TV ratings) for the team.

I'd love for the Sox to go for broke for him.
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  #73  
Old 10-19-2017, 03:06 PM
Noneck Noneck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
WAR is a real stat. It's a summation of a player's statistics into a single metric which defines how good they play versus the average player. Even if you ignore WAR, you aren't taking into account how much better of a defender and baserunner Harper is versus Abreu. There is a reason why Jose is playing first and not an outfield position.

A front office will probably give $400 million to Bryce Harper because he's probably worth it. The market will dictate as such. If the contract length is 10 years, he'll likely be worth the total amount by the end of the first 7 years in terms of his production and marketability (tickets, jersey sales, TV ratings) for the team.

I'd love for the Sox to go for broke for him.
There is also a reason why I havent heard about any teams knocking on the Sox door for Abreu even though they are in full rebuild mode. And then there is a reason why everyone is lining up for when Harper becomes FA.
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  #74  
Old 10-19-2017, 03:20 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
WAR is a real stat. It's a summation of a player's statistics into a single metric which defines how good they play versus the average player. Even if you ignore WAR, you aren't taking into account how much better of a defender and baserunner Harper is versus Abreu. There is a reason why Jose is playing first and not an outfield position.

A front office will probably give $400 million to Bryce Harper because he's probably worth it. The market will dictate as such. If the contract length is 10 years, he'll likely be worth the total amount by the end of the first 7 years in terms of his production and marketability (tickets, jersey sales, TV ratings) for the team.

I'd love for the Sox to go for broke for him.
Sorry but no. HR's, hits, runs, doubles, RBI, b.avg. OBP, S.Pct, are real stats. WAR is someones best approximation of what they think that all means in a conglomeration. And there are several different WAR metrics out there because people can't agree on how best to calculate that conglomeration.

It has its uses but the fact remains that Jose has produced in 4 years what Harper has barely managed in 6... and in some categories... hasn't.

That's reality.

And yeah, there are ways that Harper is better, OBP being the big one. And I have no problems with people saying Harper is a better player and that they'd rather have him.

But that doesn't change the numbers and the numbers tell a very interesting story.
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  #75  
Old 10-19-2017, 03:22 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Noneck View Post
There is also a reason why I havent heard about any teams knocking on the Sox door for Abreu even though they are in full rebuild mode. And then there is a reason why everyone is lining up for when Harper becomes FA.
Which is unrelated to my post about their statistical comparison... and doesn't change the statistical comparison one iota.
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