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  #226  
Old 03-19-2017, 01:16 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
A few things:

-Using OPS across eras is utterly foolish. Don't do it.
-Yes, Ruth doesn't count because he wasn't a full time hitter until age 24.
-Trout has the 6th highest 0-2 count OPS of any active player in MLB. He is not a bad two-strike hitter just because he strikes out a lot. Try again.
-I will concede that other players have been as good or better than Trout in pre-age 25 seasons. But that was not my contention -- my contention is that through age 25, no one has been as good, in total, and thus Trout is on pace to be the greatest/most decorated hitter of all time. Will he actually get there? Almost certainly not, but that isn't the point. Five MVP-caliber seasons by age 25. Who else has done that? Griffey only had 2 years as good as Trout's worst. Frank wasn't a regular until age 23. Willie Mays, same thing. A-Rod's numbers are not nearly as impressive as Trout's given the eras they played in. Williams would have an argument if it weren't for the war. Oh well. Who am I forgetting that was this dominant, averaging over 9 oWAR per season for at least five seasons before age 25?
I don't believe in OPS as a statistical measure. I think it is too vague. I don't think much of WAR as a measure either because, even more than OPS, it is an objective stat with subjective components. A lot of good baseball people would calculate it differently.

WAR notwithstanding, Frank Thomas had a better season than Trout in his first full season at 23 and again at age 24. It's really all the more remarkable in retrospect knowing that he was clean at a time when many hitters weren't. Thomas at that point was the more dangerous hitter of the two. Contributing to Thomas' better season than Trout at age 24 was the fact that Thomas, while leading the league in walks, had 35 percent more walks than strike outs. Even if you add the double plays he grounded into when he had two strikes on him, saying I wish he would have struck out there, don't ya know, he still would have struck out less than 100 times in 160 games. There was less risk to send the runner from first with a 3-2 count and less than two outs because he was more likely to make contact.

While you wallow in the wave of fawning over Trout that wasn't present for Thomas outside of the White Sox fanbase, you ignore the point I took issue with before you were offended that I considered it laughable that Trout had a better offensive start to his career than Ted Williams did. Really, your statement in a White Sox forum should be considered insulting to Frank Thomas, who was never considered to be on pace to be the greatest hitter of all-time.

Trout would be a better hitter if he cut down on his strikeouts. For example, at the same age, Thomas was a better hitter. Striking out less wasn't just a different way to make outs. He got more out of his trips to the pate because he didn't strike out as much. It's doubtful that Trout will enjoy a 2017 season as good as the season Thomas did at 25, his first MVP year. But part of what made Thomas so dangerous was that his walks more than doubled his strikeouts.
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  #227  
Old 03-19-2017, 09:14 PM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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Good debut for Rodon today. 4 IP 1 H 1 BB 5 K

Moncada a nice day as well. 3-5 2 2B 1 HR 4 RBI. Avg up to .317.
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  #228  
Old 03-20-2017, 12:10 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is online now
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Originally Posted by JermaineDye05 View Post
Good debut for Rodon today. 4 IP 1 H 1 BB 5 K

Moncada a nice day as well. 3-5 2 2B 1 HR 4 RBI. Avg up to .317.
.317/.391/.683

So guess we can stop worrying now?
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  #229  
Old 03-20-2017, 08:57 AM
LoveYourSuit LoveYourSuit is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
.317/.391/.683

So guess we can stop worrying now?
That's a Frank Thomas stat line.
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  #230  
Old 03-20-2017, 11:29 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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I hope that the lackluster performance from Moncada up until now was just him adjusting to pitching rather than being lazy (I see laziness as much harder to cure than a lack of knowledge). Either way, it's heartening to see him actually putting bat to ball now. I'll be watching him at AAA for sure.

So for someone that can't afford cable right now, can someone tell me how the pitching prospects are doing? Just going by the box scores, this is my impression so far in ST:

Giolito: Unsold. Not sure if he's truly MLB ready or not. The potential may be there, though.
Kopech: Tons of talent might be there, but he sure as hell is not ready for AAA yet. Maybe not even AA. Control issues? Too much reliance on the fastball?
Lopez: 4th-5th starter of the future. I feel that if Quintana wasn't here he would break camp with the team.
Fulmer: Well...looks better than last year, but still mightily unimpressive. I'm convinced he's destined for the bullpen. Perhaps not the Sox's bullpen, either.
Burdi: Dat K rate, tho. Looks like he's ready to relieve at the MLB level.
Hansen: No idea at all. I have not seen a box score from him, sadly.

Anyone I'm missing? Can anyone with a scout's eye give me the lowdown? :P
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  #231  
Old 03-20-2017, 01:46 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
I hope that the lackluster performance from Moncada up until now was just him adjusting to pitching rather than being lazy (I see laziness as much harder to cure than a lack of knowledge). Either way, it's heartening to see him actually putting bat to ball now. I'll be watching him at AAA for sure.

So for someone that can't afford cable right now, can someone tell me how the pitching prospects are doing? Just going by the box scores, this is my impression so far in ST:

Giolito: Unsold. Not sure if he's truly MLB ready or not. The potential may be there, though.
Kopech: Tons of talent might be there, but he sure as hell is not ready for AAA yet. Maybe not even AA. Control issues? Too much reliance on the fastball?
Lopez: 4th-5th starter of the future. I feel that if Quintana wasn't here he would break camp with the team.
Fulmer: Well...looks better than last year, but still mightily unimpressive. I'm convinced he's destined for the bullpen. Perhaps not the Sox's bullpen, either.
Burdi: Dat K rate, tho. Looks like he's ready to relieve at the MLB level.
Hansen: No idea at all. I have not seen a box score from him, sadly.

Anyone I'm missing? Can anyone with a scout's eye give me the lowdown? :P
I don't know about a scouts eye... but a veteran baseball watcher...

I seen no laziness in Moncada and think he's been doing just fine all along. The kid has only had 196 at-bats above A ball so for him to struggle some against major leaguers is to be expected. It is nice to see him break out though. I've been impressed with his defense which was supposed to be his weakest point despite his having made some errors. He's looked good. Look forward to seeing him in Chicago next year.

Giolito is close. I'm guessing a year of working with Cooper and Dotson on his mechanics will serve him well and we'll see him starting next year. He appears to be aiming the ball too much to my eye. This results in him overthrowing.

Kopech was very impressive in his last outing. Kids got stuff. But he too has never pitched above low A ball. He probably should start in Winston-Salem but someone mentioned he is heading for Birmingham. I reserve judgment until I see more of him and in particular more of his secondary pitches. If he develops a major league changeup you're going to see a lot of hitters throwing their backs out looking stupid at the plate.

Lopez looks ready for the rotation now. I suspect he'll start in Charlotte as there doesn't appear to be an opening in the major league rotation. That's ok too as I'm sure there will be an opening for one reason or another during the season. Expect him to be the one to fill it.

Fulmer appeared to have tamed his delivery in his early start but looked back to being wilder again in his last one. He needs more time in the minors but I am leaning towards thinking of him as a bullpen pitcher or trade piece also.

Burdi looks ready now. He has been very impressive. I expected him to come up during the season but frankly don't see any reason for him to go to Charlotte at this point.

I don't think Hansen has pitched in any spring games so no report on him.

Rule 5 pick Dylan Covey doesn't look like he'll stick. He's not ready.

Jacob May has looked good as has Danny Hayes. I think they both have put themselves in the running for a major league job. Delmonico has shown flashes but is not a particularly good defender. Engel has not looked ready. And Davidson and Liriano have not done anything in particular to impress.

That's my take so far.
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  #232  
Old 03-20-2017, 02:13 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I don't believe in OPS as a statistical measure. I think it is too vague. I don't think much of WAR as a measure either because, even more than OPS, it is an objective stat with subjective components. A lot of good baseball people would calculate it differently.

WAR notwithstanding, Frank Thomas had a better season than Trout in his first full season at 23 and again at age 24. It's really all the more remarkable in retrospect knowing that he was clean at a time when many hitters weren't. Thomas at that point was the more dangerous hitter of the two. Contributing to Thomas' better season than Trout at age 24 was the fact that Thomas, while leading the league in walks, had 35 percent more walks than strike outs. Even if you add the double plays he grounded into when he had two strikes on him, saying I wish he would have struck out there, don't ya know, he still would have struck out less than 100 times in 160 games. There was less risk to send the runner from first with a 3-2 count and less than two outs because he was more likely to make contact.

While you wallow in the wave of fawning over Trout that wasn't present for Thomas outside of the White Sox fanbase, you ignore the point I took issue with before you were offended that I considered it laughable that Trout had a better offensive start to his career than Ted Williams did. Really, your statement in a White Sox forum should be considered insulting to Frank Thomas, who was never considered to be on pace to be the greatest hitter of all-time.

Trout would be a better hitter if he cut down on his strikeouts. For example, at the same age, Thomas was a better hitter. Striking out less wasn't just a different way to make outs. He got more out of his trips to the pate because he didn't strike out as much. It's doubtful that Trout will enjoy a 2017 season as good as the season Thomas did at 25, his first MVP year. But part of what made Thomas so dangerous was that his walks more than doubled his strikeouts.
Trout has already had seasons as good as or better than Frank's first MVP year. Now if you want to make a case that Trout will never peak as high as Frank's 1994, I can agree with you there.

Thomas was never said to be on pace to be the greatest hitter ever because his resume was not this good this young. Trout at age 20 had a season comparable to anything Frank did outside of 1994. He has strung together 5 years from age 20-24 that are, again, unprecedented. That is no guarantee that he will not plateau or regress over the next 5 years instead of becoming the rich man's Mickey Mantle that he seems destined to become, but for now it's still fair to say that the pace he has set is the greatest ever for a hitter his age.
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  #233  
Old 03-20-2017, 03:23 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Re: Trout, he hasn't played long enough (at all) to call him the greatest or one of the greatest ever. BUT, look at his comps on Baseball Reference - impressive list (8 HOFers) - insanely impressive list.

Mickey Mantle (960.6) *
Ken Griffey (950.5) *
Hank Aaron (926.7) *
Frank Robinson (925.1) *
Mel Ott (911.2) *
Miguel Cabrera (911.2)
Orlando Cepeda (905.9) *
Vada Pinson (890.3)
Al Kaline (888.3) *
Jimmie Foxx (876.3) *

Most similar by age
20 Vada Pinson (955.2)
21 Frank Robinson (957.8) *
22 Mickey Mantle (941.3) *
23 Mickey Mantle (941.1) *
24 Mickey Mantle (960.6) *
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  #234  
Old 03-20-2017, 04:26 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Watching Reynaldo Lopez for my first time today and I'm very impressed. He looks like he has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter one day.
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  #235  
Old 03-20-2017, 05:02 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
I don't know about a scouts eye... but a veteran baseball watcher...

I seen no laziness in Moncada and think he's been doing just fine all along. The kid has only had 196 at-bats above A ball so for him to struggle some against major leaguers is to be expected. It is nice to see him break out though. I've been impressed with his defense which was supposed to be his weakest point despite his having made some errors. He's looked good. Look forward to seeing him in Chicago next year.

Giolito is close. I'm guessing a year of working with Cooper and Dotson on his mechanics will serve him well and we'll see him starting next year. He appears to be aiming the ball too much to my eye. This results in him overthrowing.

Kopech was very impressive in his last outing. Kids got stuff. But he too has never pitched above low A ball. He probably should start in Winston-Salem but someone mentioned he is heading for Birmingham. I reserve judgment until I see more of him and in particular more of his secondary pitches. If he develops a major league changeup you're going to see a lot of hitters throwing their backs out looking stupid at the plate.

Lopez looks ready for the rotation now. I suspect he'll start in Charlotte as there doesn't appear to be an opening in the major league rotation. That's ok too as I'm sure there will be an opening for one reason or another during the season. Expect him to be the one to fill it.

Fulmer appeared to have tamed his delivery in his early start but looked back to being wilder again in his last one. He needs more time in the minors but I am leaning towards thinking of him as a bullpen pitcher or trade piece also.

Burdi looks ready now. He has been very impressive. I expected him to come up during the season but frankly don't see any reason for him to go to Charlotte at this point.

I don't think Hansen has pitched in any spring games so no report on him.

Rule 5 pick Dylan Covey doesn't look like he'll stick. He's not ready.

Jacob May has looked good as has Danny Hayes. I think they both have put themselves in the running for a major league job. Delmonico has shown flashes but is not a particularly good defender. Engel has not looked ready. And Davidson and Liriano have not done anything in particular to impress.

That's my take so far.

Nice little write up, and I agree with most, though I haven't seen too much this spring.

I did want to comment on Delmonico. I've seen a few ABs of his and he has really impressed me. Looks really comfortable in the batters box, tracks the ball well, has a short to the point swing, and has good pitch selection ability. Each at bat he has impressed me before the end result too, which have all been hits. Surprised at how he hasn't seen too much success in the minors to this point. Hope he makes the team.
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  #236  
Old 03-20-2017, 05:12 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Jacob May has looked good as has Danny Hayes. I think they both have put themselves in the running for a major league job.
If this is the case, there is no reason to keep Burjos around (I don't think there's a substantive reason to keep him around regardless). The Sox have players w/o options and my lose some of them...though they are longshots, they still have a better chance than Burjos, who is 30, of becoming a major league player.
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  #237  
Old 03-20-2017, 07:53 PM
LoveYourSuit LoveYourSuit is offline
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Lopez was the goods today. He's going to be a top of the rotation stud here soon.

6 scoreless innings and only 2 hits no walks and 4Ks.


Then off course Kahnle comes in and gives up the game on a 3 run blast.

Which leads me to this:

For all those complaining the Sox have picked up too much pitching and not enough hitting.... be happy for this. It's the only way we will get away from having to keep holding on to junk in guys like Kahnle, Beck, Danish, etc. These guys have no business pitching at the big league level. The more pitching arms the better.
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  #238  
Old 03-20-2017, 09:26 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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You can never have too much pitching. Though at the moment I am unsure what we do with Lopez. He sure looks ready for the rotation but the rotation appears to be set with Quintana, Rodon, Gonzalez, Holland, and Shields. I suppose you could put him in the bullpen but I would rather start him in Charlotte waiting for one of those five to fail or get hurt... which seems kind of inevitable to me.

Meanwhile, the bullpen is starting to look set to me as well with Robertson, Jones, Burdi, Putnam, Jennings, Petricka, and Luebke.

The pitching depth in Charlotte and lower is going to be very good and baring injury the staff is going to be outstanding in just a couple years.

If only we could say the same for the outfield.
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  #239  
Old 03-20-2017, 09:29 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
If this is the case, there is no reason to keep Burjos around (I don't think there's a substantive reason to keep him around regardless). The Sox have players w/o options and my lose some of them...though they are longshots, they still have a better chance than Burjos, who is 30, of becoming a major league player.
I think the situation with Bourjos and May is interesting. Bourjos has made a strong case for himself and appears to be a better defender. Under normal circumstances you would keep Bourjos and send May to Charlotte but for a rebuilding team does that make any sense? Or should you just go ahead with the kid and hope he can carry his spring forward into the summer? I'm not convinced either May or Bourjos can but there is no way of knowing without letting them play. Maybe the Sox put Bourjos in center, May in left, and make Melky the DH.
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  #240  
Old 03-20-2017, 09:52 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by LoveYourSuit View Post
Lopez was the goods today. He's going to be a top of the rotation stud here soon.

6 scoreless innings and only 2 hits no walks and 4Ks.


Then off course Kahnle comes in and gives up the game on a 3 run blast.

Which leads me to this:

For all those complaining the Sox have picked up too much pitching and not enough hitting.... be happy for this. It's the only way we will get away from having to keep holding on to junk in guys like Kahnle, Beck, Danish, etc. These guys have no business pitching at the big league level. The more pitching arms the better.

Very true.

Lip
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