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  #31  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:21 PM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is offline
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Originally Posted by SouthSideSox View Post
You guys are so used to losing that you wouldn't take on two of the best players in MLB because it'd be too damn exciting, wouldn't it?
I would love to see the Sox take on Harper. Machado, eh. The problem is they would have to rob Fort Knox to sign either guy. It just ain't happenin'. So I have to come up with excuses for why Harper would be bad for the team.
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  #32  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:37 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Machado and Harper would still each have to put up ~10 WAR each just to make this a .500-ish team. Do we really think Eloy would add the ~6 WAR in his rookie season to get us to 87 wins?

And even if so, does that lineup have enough to overcome the yawning gaps in the starting rotation after Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito?

Wishcast all you want, but arguing to sign both Harper and Machado is madness.
But why. Who cares if they win 82 next year, or 78... and then they have those guys again... with Eloy, Kopech, Dunning, Cease, maybe a Rutherford or Madrigal..... Do the Cubs win the series without getting Lester a year early? You get talent when you can, especially when it is 2 generational guys.
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  #33  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:45 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Yes, and signed through 2030 or beyond if they decline, or opting out in 2022/2023 if they keep up their production.

It’s wishcasting to assume that Harper and Machado would maintain MVP-type production through even the first part of the projected contention window, with all of that payroll committed to positions where we might just have home-grown options, who by 2022 might actually be better.

I’m not reflexively opposed to signing free agents, even to record setting deals. But if I’m going to hand out a record contract, it’s for Mike Trout. I’m wary of both Machado and Harper.
They're both 26. Reasonably assuming they don't totally fall of a cliff and average somewhere between 5-6 WAR/season through, say, age 32, the team will have already gotten surplus value on even a 10 year/$350MM contract. (The value of one WAR in 2017 was roughly $10MM, for reference)

Nobody likes overpaying washed up veterans at the end of their contracts, but does anyone think Red Sox fans are wringing their hands right now about paying David Price $32 Million at age 36 in 2023? Same thing with the Cubs and Lester. And before anyone brings up Pujols and Cano, they'll both be 40+ by the time their deals are up. Harper and Machado will be 36 or 37, and they very well may still be reasonably productive, if overpaid, at that point.

Sometimes you gotta take the leap, guys. For a bunch of superfans who are sick and tired of the status quo, we should be shaking in our shoes at the chance of picking up one of the top 10 players on the planet. Who the hell cares how long the deal is or how much they're getting paid, out of principle? It ain't our money. This is a team that's never made the playoffs twice in a row, ever! We can't keep hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with just the right mix of consistency and career years a la 2005. Sometimes you gotta pay a premium for proven talent, and I'm sick and tired of fighting for 80 wins, so I see nothing wrong with paying a superstar what they're worth and winning some ****ing games for once.
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  #34  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:59 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
But why. Who cares if they win 82 next year, or 78... and then they have those guys again... with Eloy, Kopech, Dunning, Cease, maybe a Rutherford or Madrigal..... Do the Cubs win the series without getting Lester a year early? You get talent when you can, especially when it is 2 generational guys.
Adding those two does not make us like the 2015 Cubs. They had significantly more pieces in place.

Trout? Yes, if he’s available. But he’s not.

Harper has had a sub-2 WAR in two of the past three years. I don’t trust his production.

If they both put up .900+ OPS for the next 8 years, then sure. But I’m extremely doubtful that even one of them will.

The other flaw in this thinking is that we’ll be “ready in 2020.” I don’t see it, particularly with Kopech’s injury, less than ideal progress from Dunning and Hansen this year, Giolito’s ongoing struggles, and remaining uncertainty about Rodon (who with Boras as his agent is likely to go to free agency after 2021).

I see contracts for Machado and Harper as albatrosses that likely would keep us from investing in starting pitching, which may be a bigger need.
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  #35  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:04 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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If this was November 5, 2019, and we had just won 72 games, and Kopech’s rehab was on schedule, and Cease has made a strong September debut, and Dunning and Hansen had just had great developmental years, then yes, open up the checkbook.

But not now. There’s too much uncertainty.
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  #36  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:26 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
If this was November 5, 2019, and we had just won 72 games, and Kopech’s rehab was on schedule, and Cease has made a strong September debut, and Dunning and Hansen had just had great developmental years, then yes, open up the checkbook.

But not now. There’s too much uncertainty.
So pass up on an opportunity to sign top 10 players that are 26, which barely ever happens, to maybe drop 5-7 year contracts on pitchers on the wrong side of 30 over the next few years? Next offseason you have Sale, Bumgarner, and Cole as FAs and will be all around 30. No one else seems worth considering.
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  #37  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:42 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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The White Sox also need star power. Right now we have literally no one with an ounce of that on the major league roster. Kopech had it. The only way fans are going to start showing up is for exciting players who drive us to win. That’s it, irs proven. Vanilla 83 win teams of a bunch of try hards doesn’t bring fans or national attention. Add to the fact the neighbors are currently oozing star power and the fair weather fan doesn’t even have a hard choice to make. Even if we don’t make the playoffs, Harper and or Machado makes us relevant again. And that matters when it comes to attracting other free agents. Because of his charisma, Harper is literally the face of baseball right now. Trouts without a doubt the best player but Harper is the bigger star.
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  #38  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:42 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Let me think. Yolmer Sanchez and Nicky Delmonico in the lineup or Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Give me the 26 year old All-Stars. Don't care what it costs the payroll is miniscule right now and I don't see anyone in the organization currently that will need to be paid big bucks in the next handful of years. So yes I'll take both Harper and Machado please and thank you.
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  #39  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:45 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
They're both 26. Reasonably assuming they don't totally fall of a cliff and average somewhere between 5-6 WAR/season through, say, age 32, the team will have already gotten surplus value on even a 10 year/$350MM contract. (The value of one WAR in 2017 was roughly $10MM, for reference)

Nobody likes overpaying washed up veterans at the end of their contracts, but does anyone think Red Sox fans are wringing their hands right now about paying David Price $32 Million at age 36 in 2023? Same thing with the Cubs and Lester. And before anyone brings up Pujols and Cano, they'll both be 40+ by the time their deals are up. Harper and Machado will be 36 or 37, and they very well may still be reasonably productive, if overpaid, at that point.

Sometimes you gotta take the leap, guys. For a bunch of superfans who are sick and tired of the status quo, we should be shaking in our shoes at the chance of picking up one of the top 10 players on the planet. Who the hell cares how long the deal is or how much they're getting paid, out of principle? It ain't our money. This is a team that's never made the playoffs twice in a row, ever! We can't keep hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with just the right mix of consistency and career years a la 2005. Sometimes you gotta pay a premium for proven talent, and I'm sick and tired of fighting for 80 wins, so I see nothing wrong with paying a superstar what they're worth and winning some ****ing games for once.
Bravo!
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  #40  
Old 11-05-2018, 11:47 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The White Sox also need star power. Right now we have literally no one with an ounce of that on the major league roster. Kopech had it. The only way fans are going to start showing up is for exciting players who drive us to win. That’s it, irs proven. Vanilla 83 win teams of a bunch of try hards doesn’t bring fans or national attention. Add to the fact the neighbors are currently oozing star power and the fair weather fan doesn’t even have a hard choice to make. Even if we don’t make the playoffs, Harper and or Machado makes us relevant again. And that matters when it comes to attracting other free agents. Because of his charisma, Harper is literally the face of baseball right now. Trouts without a doubt the best player but Harper is the bigger star.
Well said but I just don't think either one is coming here.
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  #41  
Old 11-06-2018, 04:59 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
So pass up on an opportunity to sign top 10 players that are 26, which barely ever happens, to maybe drop 5-7 year contracts on pitchers on the wrong side of 30 over the next few years? Next offseason you have Sale, Bumgarner, and Cole as FAs and will be all around 30. No one else seems worth considering.
Yes, pass up on signing guys to double digit years at triple digit dollars. Those lessons of getting tied up with bad salaries from years ago still apply today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The White Sox also need star power. Right now we have literally no one with an ounce of that on the major league roster. Kopech had it. The only way fans are going to start showing up is for exciting players who drive us to win.
Eloy doesn't have it? Cease doesn't have it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
That’s it, irs proven. Vanilla 83 win teams of a bunch of try hards doesn’t bring fans or national attention. Add to the fact the neighbors are currently oozing star power and the fair weather fan doesn’t even have a hard choice to make. Even if we don’t make the playoffs, Harper and or Machado makes us relevant again.
You mean teams w/o star power like the Oakland A's or the Milwaukee Brewers? What makes this organization relevant again is not signing guys at big dollars for double digits years (that hustle when they want to) but developing the talent in the minors and getting it up here. That's what builds fan bases.
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Last edited by Grzegorz; 11-06-2018 at 05:09 AM.
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  #42  
Old 11-06-2018, 05:10 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Well said but I just don't think either one is coming here.
Yeah, because JR realizes the ROI is not worth it.
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  #43  
Old 11-06-2018, 05:15 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by hoosiersoxfan View Post
Let me think. Yolmer Sanchez and Nicky Delmonico in the lineup or Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Give me the 26 year old All-Stars.
Let me think: Eloy and Cease or Bryce Harper and Manny Machado?

Those last two will kill this club numbers wise, unless the club can exercise an out, at the expense of the younger talent under development.


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Last edited by Grzegorz; 11-06-2018 at 05:22 AM.
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  #44  
Old 11-06-2018, 06:46 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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The one major problem with signing either Harper or Machado is that this team will not take the necessary reactionary steps in the event that the guy who they sign “flops.”

Let’s say that the White Sox agree to pay Machado somewhere around $35 million AAV. Let’s also say that Machado’s bat declines in either the contact or power department, and he profiles more as a #6 hitter than a #3 or #4 hitter.

Do you trust this team to look past the price tag and make the necessary move? Additionally, do you trust the team to spend the necessary money to secure a replacement middle-of-the-order hitter after signing Machado to that contract? My answer to both of these questions is a resounding “no.”
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  #45  
Old 11-06-2018, 07:25 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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I do think it bears repeating that Harper and Machado are both unusually young for free agents. They both began playing MLB as teens. So they're a bit less likely to decline over the course of a long contract than the FAs you're thinking of.

I've been pro-Machado this entire time. I guess I've come around on Harper too. Go sign em both. The 2019 White Sox would still suck even with Harper and Machado, but the point of signing them now rather than in 2020-2021 is that they're available now.
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