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  #346  
Old 10-09-2019, 02:21 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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You think a 29 year old pitcher is going to get 8/$250 with two option years from this team?
No. My point is that Cole will end up making significantly less than that, so if the Sox were willing to spend $250 million on Player X maybe $210 million or whatever on Player Y isn't a total pipe dream.
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  #347  
Old 10-09-2019, 02:50 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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No. My point is that Cole will end up making significantly less than that, so if the Sox were willing to spend $250 million on Player X maybe $210 million or whatever on Player Y isn't a total pipe dream.

I think the Sox going $250 million on a 26 year old non-pitcher is a lot different than asking them to go 6, 7, or 8 years on any pitcher at ANY cost and at ANY age. My fear is that they're going into the pitching market hoping for a 3 year commitment with the ability to "stretch" to 4 years on the right guy.
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  #348  
Old 10-09-2019, 04:28 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
If we won’t pay for top-end talent—and everything about this ownership’s history suggests that this is just a fact of life with Reinsdorf that we will just have to accept—the next-best plan is to add serviceable-but-overpaid veterans along with a top prospect and a lesser prospect. If the production from the top prospect exceeds the overpay for the veteran, then it’s the same net-positive WAR increase the team needs, plus you add another decent piece to your farm system.

Look at it this way. If J.D. Martinez gets 4/$100 and produces 16 WAR, you’re paying $6.25/WAR. That’s a good deal. 16 WAR is worth $128. In terms of WAR, that is 3.5 free WAR over the life of the deal.



Now let’s say that Wil Myers actually gets that goofball deferral contract I proposed. He gets 4/$67.5 plus 6/$20, and if he produces 8 WAR over the life of the deal, he costs $8.44 per WAR, which is an overpay of about 0.4-0.5 WAR, plus about 2.5 WAR in sunk cost on the deferrals.

The difference in total WAR is about 6.5.

I think Taylor Trammell will be much better than 1 WAR per year over his 7-year tenure.
You're acting like the Sox are starved for top end talent right now. Eloy, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu/Vaughn all look like they will be providing well above average output from over half of the lineup for the next 4+ years. Another top guy would be great, but not an absolute must. They need to be smart with who they bring in to complement this core. If they miss out on Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner this offseason, then their creativity should be focused on getting a 1-2 type pitcher IMO.
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  #349  
Old 10-09-2019, 04:55 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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You're acting like the Sox are starved for top end talent right now. Eloy, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu/Vaughn all look like they will be providing well above average output from over half of the lineup for the next 4+ years. Another top guy would be great, but not an absolute must. They need to be smart with who they bring in to complement this core. If they miss out on Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner this offseason, then their creativity should be focused on getting a 1-2 type pitcher IMO.

We all have high hopes for continued success for Eloy, Moncada, and TA and for similar results from Vaughn, Robert, and Madrigal. But the odds are someone will regress, and someone will flame out. If it doesn't happen, great. But you can't count on always hitting and at a high level.


Even with the massive production from our young guys and Abreu (and McCann), this was the 26th best offense in baseball.


Get talent when you can.
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  #350  
Old 10-09-2019, 05:47 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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The 26th overall offensive had:

5 months of Moncada

5 months of Anderson

6 months of Abreu

6 months of McCann

2 good months from Eloy (he will not be the player he was April-July ever again)

0 months of Robert

And some of the absolute worst production from 2b, DH, CF, and RF ever. Those players won't be on the team moving forward, or will be only getting 1/5 of the ABs next year.

Citing that the Sox had a bad offense this year is not a good indicator at all of what it will be in the future.
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  #351  
Old 10-09-2019, 07:39 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
You're acting like the Sox are starved for top end talent right now. Eloy, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu/Vaughn all look like they will be providing well above average output from over half of the lineup for the next 4+ years. Another top guy would be great, but not an absolute must. They need to be smart with who they bring in to complement this core. If they miss out on Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner this offseason, then their creativity should be focused on getting a 1-2 type pitcher IMO.
They are starved for top-end talent. Another top guy is not an absolute must; 2 more top guys are absolute musts. And we need the TOR starter.

Look at those lineups in New York and Houston. Realistic championship contenders don’t go into seasons with known holes and “meh” place-holders.
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  #352  
Old 10-09-2019, 08:21 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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They are starved for top-end talent. Another top guy is not an absolute must; 2 more top guys are absolute musts. And we need the TOR starter.

Look at those lineups in New York and Houston. Realistic championship contenders don’t go into seasons with known holes and “meh” place-holders.
Next year is very unlikely to be a championship contention year no matter what they do. Still want to see some quality moves and good years from the young core but it’s not realistic to hang that on them. WC or division contenders and some playoff experience would be excellent and might happen but they are not at the level of those teams yet and won’t be barring huge breakouts from Robert, Madrigal, Cease and Kopech to name a few.
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  #353  
Old 10-09-2019, 08:36 PM
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Next year is very unlikely to be a championship contention year no matter what they do. Still want to see some quality moves and good years from the young core but it’s not realistic to hang that on them. WC or division contenders and some playoff experience would be excellent and might happen but they are not at the level of those teams yet and won’t be barring huge breakouts from Robert, Madrigal, Cease and Kopech to name a few.
OK, then why not just call 2020 the last non-competitive year and go after young talent instead? Dump as much of the sunk cost into 2020 as possible, then hit it hard in 2021.

The main thing this team absolutely must leave this offseason with is a TOR starter. I would not mind holding off on the OF and DH spots, though. Fill those spots with overpaid “blah” players, if top prospects come with those mediocre—or maybe even downright awful—stopgaps.

I would do the Myers-for-Trammell thing in a heartbeat. I would even do Chris Davis’s 3/$51 and 15/$42 in deferrals if it got me Adley Rutschman and another young pitcher.
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  #354  
Old 10-09-2019, 09:56 PM
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OK, then why not just call 2020 the last non-competitive year and go after young talent instead? Dump as much of the sunk cost into 2020 as possible, then hit it hard in 2021.

The main thing this team absolutely must leave this offseason with is a TOR starter. I would not mind holding off on the OF and DH spots, though. Fill those spots with overpaid “blah” players, if top prospects come with those mediocre—or maybe even downright awful—stopgaps.

I would do the Myers-for-Trammell thing in a heartbeat. I would even do Chris Davis’s 3/$51 and 15/$42 in deferrals if it got me Adley Rutschman and another young pitcher.
There’s a lot of grey area between “championship contender”and “non-competitive”. The Sox are in that grey space. They should be doing everything possible short of trading young players with big upside to build a winner next year, with an eye on the pieces they acquire being here for several years during the serious window that should open in 2021 for real.

That way they give the young kids a taste of a pennant race and lots of experience and give most of the core a chance to fit together. If everything breaks right next year they extend the window but more likely they give Cease, Kopech, Gio and López another year to settle in, Find out how much and how soon they could expect Rodon and Dunning to contribute and figure out what final few pieces they really need to kick the door off the hinges in 2021.

Add some quality pieces including a TOR SP (or 2), a RF/DH and a bullpen arm or two, but otherwise stay the course. We are on the right track...
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  #355  
Old 10-09-2019, 11:49 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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We have guys with potential to be high end talent

Right now we don’t have one proven top level talent player.

Thinking we can build this entirely in house is just foolish. No one wins that way, you have to supplement on FA and trades if you are serious, and every World Series winner has proven that
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  #356  
Old 10-10-2019, 12:05 AM
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We have guys with potential to be high end talent

Right now we don’t have one proven top level talent player.

Thinking we can build this entirely in house is just foolish. No one wins that way, you have to supplement on FA and trades if you are serious, and every World Series winner has proven that
Yes I think everyone agrees on that.
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  #357  
Old 10-10-2019, 07:26 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
There’s a lot of grey area between “championship contender”and “non-competitive”. The Sox are in that grey space. They should be doing everything possible short of trading young players with big upside to build a winner next year, with an eye on the pieces they acquire being here for several years during the serious window that should open in 2021 for real.

That way they give the young kids a taste of a pennant race and lots of experience and give most of the core a chance to fit together. If everything breaks right next year they extend the window but more likely they give Cease, Kopech, Gio and López another year to settle in, Find out how much and how soon they could expect Rodon and Dunning to contribute and figure out what final few pieces they really need to kick the door off the hinges in 2021.

Add some quality pieces including a TOR SP (or 2), a RF/DH and a bullpen arm or two, but otherwise stay the course. We are on the right track...
But that’s the entire point. Eliminate the gray area. Let fans know (through your moves, NOT through your self-owned media outlets) that we’re looking less at 2020 and harder at 2021. Either that, or focus on making the 2020 team a legitimate AL contender.

For all those home runs the Twins hit, we all knew that they would get thumped by New York in 3 games. They never were a legitimate AL contender. Neither was Cleveland.

There is a great opportunity to secure this division for the next half-decade or so. However, the start date on that needs to be determined right now. If it’s not 2020, then just worry about signing that top-flight starter and acquiring more top-flight prospects and other young talent wherever possible.

Besides, another year of growth can answer lots of questions.

Is the “Eloy in LF” experiment doomed to failure? If it is, then he is the long-term DH, playing LF only on a backup/interleague workload. Signing J.D. Martinez would then become a misallocation of resources, because he would be redundant with Eloy.

We also can get more definitive with our outlook on our young pitching. Is this the Giolito that we can expect to see moving forward? Will Cease make the next step forward? Will Lopez pitch his way out of the rotation entirely? Will Kopech be the same uber-prospect he was before he got hurt? Are Rodon and Fulmer “baseball dead”?

Will James McCann prove himself worthy of a longer-term commitment?

Will any of the minor league outfielders show signs of getting back on track?

Is Andrew Vaughn as good as advertised? How much longer will he need in the minors?

Can we find another bullpen success story like Bummer? Furthermore, is Bummer legit?

Will Abreu still be here, or will we have to find a replacement for his production?

Does Luis Robert come up here and destroy everyone in his path immediately upon arrival, or will he have to work through some highs and lows like almost every other rookie?

Does Nick Madrigal’s ability level make an impact in the majors? Does it look like it can make an impact if given enough time to develop? Is he basically just Yolmer with an OBP upgrade?
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  #358  
Old 10-10-2019, 08:00 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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I think competing for a WC spot in 2020 is an eminently realistic goal for these White Sox. And once you're in the postseason, who knows. Worst case scenario you get the fabled "postseason experience".

I don't think you need to sell the farm and go all-in on 2020, but there is such a thing as a move that pays off in both 2020 and 2021. I think JD Martinez would be such a move. I think Marcel Ozuna would be such a move. Cole or Strasburg would be such a move. For a lot of these players, there simply isn't an equivalent hitting the FA market at the end of the 2020 season, and/or there is no reason to think they will forget how to play baseball in the winter of 2020-2021.

You could take a wait and see approach too, I guess. Make a few obvious improvements this offseason, and if the kids play well in April and May then make further moves at mid-season. They could add some bullpen arms at that point, even trade for a rental SP.
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  #359  
Old 10-10-2019, 08:01 AM
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The AL Central is a complete dumpster fire. The Twins were way over their heads this year and Cleveland is going in the wrong direction. There is no reason why the White Sox can't compete for winning the crappy AL Central in 2020.
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  #360  
Old 10-10-2019, 08:52 AM
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I think competing for a WC spot in 2020 is an eminently realistic goal for these White Sox. And once you're in the postseason, who knows. Worst case scenario you get the fabled "postseason experience".

I don't think you need to sell the farm and go all-in on 2020, but there is such a thing as a move that pays off in both 2020 and 2021. I think JD Martinez would be such a move. I think Marcel Ozuna would be such a move. Cole or Strasburg would be such a move. For a lot of these players, there simply isn't an equivalent hitting the FA market at the end of the 2020 season, and/or there is no reason to think they will forget how to play baseball in the winter of 2020-2021.

You could take a wait and see approach too, I guess. Make a few obvious improvements this offseason, and if the kids play well in April and May then make further moves at mid-season. They could add some bullpen arms at that point, even trade for a rental SP.
Completely agree with this post.
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