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  #136  
Old 02-13-2018, 11:04 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I would be curious to see where people called Tatis a real prospect, because at the time, he wasn't. He wasn't a top 10 or even 20 guy.

I totally am fine with and buy the idea people thought Shields was done. But I honestly call BS on thinking Tatis was a legit prospect, because no one did, none of the people who follow this intently, none of the people who do it professionally. Fernando Tatis Jr. In his short time with the White Sox, never cracked the top 20 of a putrid farm.
Again, he was a top 30 international signing which might not have made him a top 100 prospect site unseen but it did make him a prospect and a serious one for the Sox at the time (pre-rebuild).

But yeah, it was mostly about Shields being a bad pick-up. Johnson was a question mark by that time and Tatis the great unknown quantity. Lottery ticket is a fair description, all 16-17 year olds are, though a serious one in his case.
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  #137  
Old 02-13-2018, 11:09 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Sorry, but it was not just one bad outing. You can see numbers, predictably for an early thirties pitcher with a lot of innings, declining across the board.
He had an ERA of 3.06 before that start....
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  #138  
Old 02-13-2018, 11:11 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by hoosiersoxfan View Post
Hindsight is definitely 20/20 in the Shields/Tatis discussion.

Here's the thread from when the trade went down. Details about it broke around pages 6-7

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/v...d.php?t=144976
Thanks for the thread link. So my first comment was the most accurate:

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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Time will tell.
My evaluation a little further down emphasizes my dislike for the Shields side of it... but presages the Tatis problem.

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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
My evaluation of the trade:

The Sox had a definite need for another major league quality starting pitcher.

The Sox gave up Eric Johnson, who I once had hope for but who I think we probably all agree was not the answer and therefore not any real loss, and a highly regarded 17 year old latin American prospect, Fernando Tatis, Jr, who hasn't played a single game of professional baseball yet. Tatis, Jr may end up being a player and a loss to the team... in 2024.

That part is just fine.

The White Sox did not bite on signing Shields to a long term, big money deal last year despite some discussion of (and desire for) the possibility on this board at the time. Instead it was San Diego that way overpaid for an aging starter with lots of innings on his arm (score one for the White Sox!).

The Sox get Shields for 3 years at $27 million, which by current standards is a bargin for a starter with his track record at his age.

That part is also just fine.

The question is how quickly is/will Shields fade? His numbers the last two years clearly indicate a pitcher on the downside of his career. They match with his age. It is a given that we are not getting Shields in his prime.

Worst case scenario this trade is bad and we just picked up three more years of a right handed John Danks after having finally gotten rid of Danks.

But, while his numbers indicate an aging pitcher, they do not indicate a barely marginal pitcher like Danks sadly was the last couple years.

Odds are we just picked up a perfectly good #4 or #5 pitcher. An experienced, aging veteran that can still pitch and contribute but not star.

Best case scenario Shields gets reinvigorated and provides us with an innings eating reliable #3 that makes the entire pitching staff better by pushing Rodon and Latos to #4 and #5 and relieving the bullpen of having to pitch some innings.

Meanwhile, the team needs some hitters because that is where the biggest problem is. Abreu needs to get it together or we are in trouble. And another big bat needs to get slotted in behind Frazier to round out this lineup also allowing Cabrera to move to his more natural #2 slot.

But I think this trade answered the starting rotation problem and possibly the bullpen problem also... without having given up much of anything... until next decade when we get to regret giving up Tatis... maybe.
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  #139  
Old 02-13-2018, 11:27 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
No offense, but this is a load of revisionist garbage. At the time, most commented that the Sox were able to get Shields for 60 cents on the dollar because they took the salary back without dumping a top 100 prospect. Tatis had never even played a game in any minor league level.

Tatis went into last year as the 17th ranked prospect in the Padres system.
Shields had a declining 2015, and was getting shelled in San Diego in 2016. Top 100 prospect was market rate for Shields? What? Shields was a pure salary dump - trading anything other than a non-prospect for him was overpaying NO serious observer thought that the Sox got some bargain on that trade.
.
No Tatis wasn't a top 100 prospect at the time. But any justification of that trade requires one to believe that he was zero or near zero prospect for Chicago, and yet, within 3 months, suddenly blossomed into a legitimate prospect.

Tatis top 50 ranking going into 2017:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/stor...ndi-others-mlb
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  #140  
Old 02-13-2018, 12:26 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Again, he was a top 30 international signing
You keep going back to this "top 30 international" point. You need to realize that a top 30 international player is nowhere near a top 30 draft prospect. If you go back and look at the top 20/30 over the past 10 years, maybe 2 or 3 of each makes the major leagues, with almost all of them being listed in the top 5 or 10.

The bellyaching over Tatis is silly at this point and so is any sort of grand revelation that someone might have known that he'd be a top 10 prospect after 2 years.
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  #141  
Old 02-13-2018, 12:32 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Tatis top 50 ranking going into 2017:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/stor...ndi-others-mlb
Tatis' NON-top 100 rating going into 2017:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/mino...jaKzyF4fTiH.97

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...pects-of-2017/

(Not even in the top 200 on this list)

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017...or-league-ball

He was also NOT listed in the top 100 on MLB Pipeline going into 2017, but the site will list him as 50 because they updated the list towards the end of the season.
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  #142  
Old 02-13-2018, 12:34 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
You keep going back to this "top 30 international" point. You need to realize that a top 30 international player is nowhere near a top 30 draft prospect. If you go back and look at the top 20/30 over the past 10 years, maybe 2 or 3 of each makes the major leagues, with almost all of them being listed in the top 5 or 10.

The bellyaching over Tatis is silly at this point and so is any sort of grand revelation that someone might have known that he'd be a top 10 prospect after 2 years.
And at no point have I claimed that a top 30 international is a top 30 or even top 100 prospect (I think I said that explicitly just a post or two ago).

I go back to the point because that is the point I've been making despite peoples attempts to say I'm saying something else.

And I ain't been bellyaching about Tatis at all. I regret they traded him and regretted it at the time but it's years old now. I've been going on at length here about the trade itself and the revisionist history some were claiming that no one objected at the time or thought Tatis was worth something. As shown in the thread link back to the original trade... that is simply not the case.

I know it is hard to separate arguments in long running threads with multiple participants. I am guilty of that too sometimes. But I'm not arguing points I'm not arguing. I'm arguing the points I am arguing. That's why I keep going back to the points I am arguing rather than arguing against the objections to points I am not arguing.
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  #143  
Old 02-14-2018, 09:07 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
And at no point have I claimed that a top 30 international is a top 30 or even top 100 prospect (I think I said that explicitly just a post or two ago).

I go back to the point because that is the point I've been making despite peoples attempts to say I'm saying something else.

And I ain't been bellyaching about Tatis at all. I regret they traded him and regretted it at the time but it's years old now. I've been going on at length here about the trade itself and the revisionist history some were claiming that no one objected at the time or thought Tatis was worth something. As shown in the thread link back to the original trade... that is simply not the case.

I know it is hard to separate arguments in long running threads with multiple participants. I am guilty of that too sometimes. But I'm not arguing points I'm not arguing. I'm arguing the points I am arguing. That's why I keep going back to the points I am arguing rather than arguing against the objections to points I am not arguing.
I will say, You did have a high opinion of Tatis when the deal went down. I don't totally agree with the assessment but I can't knock you at all for being right either.

That said, I think most of the debate with your particular opinion is just that, opinion. Using the phrase interesting or talented prospect just might mean something different to different people.
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  #144  
Old 02-14-2018, 04:49 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I will say, You did have a high opinion of Tatis when the deal went down. I don't totally agree with the assessment but I can't knock you at all for being right either.

That said, I think most of the debate with your particular opinion is just that, opinion. Using the phrase interesting or talented prospect just might mean something different to different people.
And I won't claim to have foreseen him turning into what he showed last year. I didn't. But I did think he might be capable of being the kind of player his Dad was and that is a good, productive, but not great major leaguer.
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  #145  
Old 02-16-2018, 08:38 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
And at no point have I claimed that a top 30 international is a top 30 or even top 100 prospect (I think I said that explicitly just a post or two ago).

And I ain't been bellyaching about Tatis at all. I regret they traded him and regretted it at the time but it's years old now. I've been going on at length here about the trade itself and the revisionist history some were claiming that no one objected at the time or thought Tatis was worth something. As shown in the thread link back to the original trade... that is simply not the case.
From my point of view (which is purely opinion based) is that using phrases such as "Top 30 International", is just a way of inflating a player's worth.

At the time most of us (including you) knew that Tatis was a lottery ticket and one that was very far away from the majors having never even stepped in the batter's box at any level. The purpose of my post was not to call you out for claiming that you knew that Tatis was going to be a top 10/20 prospect within 2 years of the trade, as you never did that. My issue is that we don't need to create another rallying cry/talking point for the subsection of Sox fans that are always bellyaching about management. That crowd has grown very tiresome over the past few years and they tend to cling to anything scrap of information, factual or not, in order to trumpet their agenda.

Does the trade look bad for the present and future? Hell yes it does. But bringing it up over and over and over again is pointless unless a poster is part of the management bashing (only happy when complaining) subculture. I think that most of us will agree that we've had enough of those posts for awhile.
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  #146  
Old 02-16-2018, 12:41 PM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
From my point of view (which is purely opinion based) is that using phrases such as "Top 30 International", is just a way of inflating a player's worth.

At the time most of us (including you) knew that Tatis was a lottery ticket and one that was very far away from the majors having never even stepped in the batter's box at any level. The purpose of my post was not to call you out for claiming that you knew that Tatis was going to be a top 10/20 prospect within 2 years of the trade, as you never did that. My issue is that we don't need to create another rallying cry/talking point for the subsection of Sox fans that are always bellyaching about management. That crowd has grown very tiresome over the past few years and they tend to cling to anything scrap of information, factual or not, in order to trumpet their agenda.

Does the trade look bad for the present and future? Hell yes it does. But bringing it up over and over and over again is pointless unless a poster is part of the management bashing (only happy when complaining) subculture. I think that most of us will agree that we've had enough of those posts for awhile.
I'll issue my mea culpa. I shouldn't have mentioned him. I've gotten very greedy with respect to our Top 100. Any fan should be thrilled with our replenished talent - but I keep wanting more!

I've never been this excited for MiLB to start...
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  #147  
Old 02-16-2018, 02:25 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
I'll issue my mea culpa. I shouldn't have mentioned him. I've gotten very greedy with respect to our Top 100. Any fan should be thrilled with our replenished talent - but I keep wanting more!

I've never been this excited for MiLB to start...
No need to apologize for mentioning him, the fault lies with those who use the Tatis example as an indictment on current management practices, as rdivaldi noted very well. It’s as if no other baseball franchise, including the successful ones, makes these kinds of mistakes. The reigning World Series champion could have (and should have, according to many at the time) drafted Carlos Rodon, but didn’t. That mistake came after nearly a decade of ineptness. And yet...
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  #148  
Old 02-16-2018, 02:52 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
From my point of view (which is purely opinion based) is that using phrases such as "Top 30 International", is just a way of inflating a player's worth.

At the time most of us (including you) knew that Tatis was a lottery ticket and one that was very far away from the majors having never even stepped in the batter's box at any level. The purpose of my post was not to call you out for claiming that you knew that Tatis was going to be a top 10/20 prospect within 2 years of the trade, as you never did that. My issue is that we don't need to create another rallying cry/talking point for the subsection of Sox fans that are always bellyaching about management. That crowd has grown very tiresome over the past few years and they tend to cling to anything scrap of information, factual or not, in order to trumpet their agenda.

Does the trade look bad for the present and future? Hell yes it does. But bringing it up over and over and over again is pointless unless a poster is part of the management bashing (only happy when complaining) subculture. I think that most of us will agree that we've had enough of those posts for awhile.
Whatever. if stating a fact is inflating value fine. I'm getting tired of being on the receiving end of someone elses argument about something else.
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  #149  
Old 02-16-2018, 03:10 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
No need to apologize for mentioning him, the fault lies with those who use the Tatis example as an indictment on current management practices, as rdivaldi noted very well. Itís as if no other baseball franchise, including the successful ones, makes these kinds of mistakes. The reigning World Series champion could have (and should have, according to many at the time) drafted Carlos Rodon, but didnít. That mistake came after nearly a decade of ineptness. And yet...
The year before that, they also passed up Kris Bryant! And the guy they picked instead of him as the #1 overall pick isn't even in baseball anymore.
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  #150  
Old 02-19-2018, 11:27 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
I'm getting tired of being on the receiving end of someone elses argument about something else.
Understood, we'll keep the conversation going about things other than Tatis.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...spects-to-know

Callis lists Adolfo, Adams and Collins/Skoug/Mercedes as the three other prospects to watch....even though he lists five.
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