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  #1  
Old 02-19-2018, 12:39 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Default Fangraphs Article on 2018 Rotation

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-...d-be-anything/

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If everything goes well for the Sox, they’ll look up at the end of the year and feel pretty good about the way their rotation looks for, say, 2020. But if all goes poorly, they’ll spend next winter wondering how they’re going to find pitching to support the big bats they have coming up.
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  #2  
Old 02-19-2018, 12:58 PM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
I'd be lying if I said that that wasn't a nagging worry in my mind: I really don't want to the see the Sox become the next Orioles that I've watched over the last half decade or so.
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  #3  
Old 02-19-2018, 01:00 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
I'd be lying if I said that that wasn't a nagging worry in my mind: I really don't want to the see the Sox become the next Orioles that I've watched over the last half decade or so.
Well given how small their payroll is going to be, if the kid pitchers falter they'll have PLENTY of funds available to pick off the top free agents.
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  #4  
Old 02-19-2018, 03:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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The two starting pitchers with the highest upside won’t even be up here in 2018.

If Kopech and Hansen falter in the majors, then I’ll start to worry.
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  #5  
Old 02-19-2018, 05:04 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney
The two starting pitchers with the highest upside won’t even be up here in 2018.
You don't think Kopech will start for the Sox in 2018? He won't break camp with them, but I think it is a given that he will make it up to the big leagues during the season (barring injuries).
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  #6  
Old 02-19-2018, 06:28 PM
MtGrnwdSoxFan MtGrnwdSoxFan is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
You don't think Kopech will start for the Sox in 2018? He won't break camp with them, but I think it is a given that he will make it up to the big leagues during the season (barring injuries).
Maybe as a September cup of coffee to try to stretch him out a little bit and let him get acclimated to MLB a bit before penciling him into the rotation in '19.

The only way Kopech will start consistently in '18 is if there's been a run of injuries (and even then, that's unlikely, they'll just sign or call up someone from the scrap heap) or he lights it up so much (like, sub-2.00 ERA and leading AAA in strikeouts at the halfway point) in AAA that he forces Hahn's hand. I don't think Hahn wants to waste a year of Kopech in an obvious throwaway year.
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  #7  
Old 02-19-2018, 08:00 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by MtGrnwdSoxFan View Post
Maybe as a September cup of coffee to try to stretch him out a little bit and let him get acclimated to MLB a bit before penciling him into the rotation in '19.

The only way Kopech will start consistently in '18 is if there's been a run of injuries (and even then, that's unlikely, they'll just sign or call up someone from the scrap heap) or he lights it up so much (like, sub-2.00 ERA and leading AAA in strikeouts at the halfway point) in AAA that he forces Hahn's hand. I don't think Hahn wants to waste a year of Kopech in an obvious throwaway year.
I think Kopech could earn himself a mid-season promotion if he dominates AAA like he did in AA.

Hansen could do something similar - dominate AA this year, start 2019 at Charlotte, and earn a mid-season promotion to the MLB rotation in June/July 2019.
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  #8  
Old 02-19-2018, 08:03 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi
You don't think Kopech will start for the Sox in 2018? He won't break camp with them, but I think it is a given that he will make it up to the big leagues during the season (barring injuries).
This is what I meant.

Kopech probably comes up sometime later in the season barring a setback at Charlotte, but even if he were to struggle in a 10-start sample size, I still wouldn't be inclined to worry.
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  #9  
Old 02-20-2018, 12:27 AM
Noneck Noneck is offline
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Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
Well given how small their payroll is going to be, if the kid pitchers falter they'll have PLENTY of funds available to pick off the top free agents.
Maybe you are forgetting about the Sox owner who doesnt like paying big money long term contracts to pitchers. I bet he still awakes to cold sweats thinking about the Danks signing.
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  #10  
Old 02-20-2018, 01:51 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by MtGrnwdSoxFan View Post
I don't think Hahn wants to waste a year of Kopech in an obvious throwaway year.
It's only a waste if he comes up before the Super Two deadline. If he joins the team in June/July, then there's no harm.
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  #11  
Old 02-20-2018, 08:40 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The two starting pitchers with the highest upside won’t even be up here in 2018.

If Kopech and Hansen falter in the majors, then I’ll start to worry.
Exactly. But from everything I've heard and read, the organization is very confident in both of them. Maybe more so than any pitchers in the minors (and majors).

If you have a subscription to the Athletic, there's a good article on Reynaldo Lopez: https://theathletic.com/201756/2018/...the-next-step/

(If you don't have a subscription, I assure you it's worth it!)

That leaves Rodon. If the guy can just stay healthy, we're looking at a beast of a rotation in 2020.
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  #12  
Old 02-20-2018, 10:09 AM
LoveYourSuit LoveYourSuit is offline
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Including Giollito, Lopez, Fulmer, and Rodon, the Sox go about 15 deep in total pitching prospects.


I'm not losing sleep over finding 4-5 guys from that list to be solid ML starting pitchers.
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  #13  
Old 02-20-2018, 01:05 PM
soxnut67 soxnut67 is offline
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Originally Posted by LoveYourSuit View Post
Including Giollito, Lopez, Fulmer, and Rodon, the Sox go about 15 deep in total pitching prospects.


I'm not losing sleep over finding 4-5 guys from that list to be solid ML starting pitchers.
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  #14  
Old 02-20-2018, 01:49 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
This is what I meant.

Kopech probably comes up sometime later in the season barring a setback at Charlotte, but even if he were to struggle in a 10-start sample size, I still wouldn't be inclined to worry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveYourSuit View Post
Including Giollito, Lopez, Fulmer, and Rodon, the Sox go about 15 deep in total pitching prospects.


I'm not losing sleep over finding 4-5 guys from that list to be solid ML starting pitchers.
I agree. I mean, yeah, nothing is guaranteed and many things could go off the rails this year. Several of these guys could develop arm trouble or could regress this year. But, the Sox have a lot of talented starting pitching depth right now.
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  #15  
Old 02-20-2018, 05:09 PM
MtGrnwdSoxFan MtGrnwdSoxFan is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
It's only a waste if he comes up before the Super Two deadline. If he joins the team in June/July, then there's no harm.
How did I forget that? Ugh. I'm losing it.
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