White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
GO SOX! DSNB!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #16  
Old 11-05-2018, 04:47 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,739
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumpJerry
You left out that signing one or both of them would make some highly touted prospects excellent trade bait to shore up other positions.
Yup. They can trade those superfluous prospects for Mike Trout.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and letís fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:07 PM
thomas35forever's Avatar
thomas35forever thomas35forever is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lombard
Posts: 27,005
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnTucker0814 View Post
I am happy to take both Machado and Harper... it won't happen, but anyone saying they wouldn't take both really are thinking too much like they own the team and not a fan.

Harper and Machado hitting 3/4 and Eloy, Abrue, Moncada, Anderson hitting around him this year would make us an instant playoff contender.

Then adding Madrigal, Robert, Cease, Kopech, Dunning to the mix in 2020, makes us the a World Series contender for the next 3-4 years.

If we have to have Machado and Harper on the other side of 30 with bad contract, but we were World Series contenders for 5+ years, it is worth it to me!

We just went through some very rough years, I really don't care if that is the cycle as long as we have 4-5 years of true World Series aspirations between them.

Also, don't you think this team would be flush with capital instantly by signing both of these players? The sponsorships, TV Deals, etc would come rolling in for the ownership and they could virtually pay for the two deals.

Yes, we should be a major market like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, etc.

Looking at our budget, we still would never be over $200 Million in yearly payroll even if we signed these guys to $400+ contracts! We have the ability, especially if we front load the contracts.

As a fan... yes, please sign both of them, also go ahead and sign Kimbrel and a SP too.
Not sure if you read this or if anyone else has seen it, but regardless, here it is.
https://southsideshowdown.com/2018/1...-bryce-harper/
__________________
Consistency lost
If found, please return to 333 W. 35th Street, Chicago. Generous reward offered.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:26 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,944
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JermaineDye05 View Post
Hard to say. Iíd confidently say that both of their gloves would help save a ton of runs.
Defensive metrics are still not as refined as pitching and hitting, but according to Baseball Referenceís dWAR stats, Machado would be a downgrade defensively from Yolmer at third and from Anderson at short, and Harper would be a downgrade defensively from Engel in center. So if you signed both, you put Machado at third and Harper in right, and then sit tight with Engel in center until Basabe or Robert or Gonzalez are ready.

Also, Harper peaked at 10 WAR in 2015 and Machado peaked at 6.9 WAR in 2016. Their career averages would suggest weíd get 8.5 WAR total from both of them together if each produces according to their career average WAR.

Thatís an awful lot of money and years to throw at hoping to get 8-9 WAR/year, for who knows how long?
__________________
The universe is the practical joke of the General at the expense of the Particular, quoth Frater Perdurabo, and laughed. The disciples nearest him wept, seeing the Universal Sorrow. Others laughed, seeing the Universal Joke. Others wept. Others laughed. Others wept because they couldn't see the Joke, and others laughed lest they should be thought not to see the Joke. But though FRATER laughed openly, he wept secretly; and really he neither laughed nor wept. Nor did he mean what he said.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:28 PM
JohnTucker0814 JohnTucker0814 is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Davenport, Iowa
Posts: 4,601
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Machado and Harper would still each have to put up ~10 WAR each just to make this a .500-ish team. Do we really think Eloy would add the ~6 WAR in his rookie season to get us to 87 wins?

And even if so, does that lineup have enough to overcome the yawning gaps in the starting rotation after Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito?

Wishcast all you want, but arguing to sign both Harper and Machado is madness.
What was in the rotation for Milwaukee? What about the Braves? There are playoff teams every year where they have a make shift rotation. If Rodon is healthy and Lopez continues to develop, that's a decent 1-2. And after next year is when it would get really interesting when you add Kopech and Cease to the mix to go with Rodon and Lopez. Before 2020 might be the time to make a deal for a top rotation arm.. Bumgarner, Sale, Cole are free agents then!!!!
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:33 PM
JohnTucker0814 JohnTucker0814 is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Davenport, Iowa
Posts: 4,601
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Defensive metrics are still not as refined as pitching and hitting, but according to Baseball Referenceís dWAR stats, Machado would be a downgrade defensively from Yolmer at third and from Anderson at short, and Harper would be a downgrade defensively from Engel in center. So if you signed both, you put Machado at third and Harper in right, and then sit tight with Engel in center until Basabe or Robert or Gonzalez are ready.

Also, Harper peaked at 10 WAR in 2015 and Machado peaked at 6.9 WAR in 2016. Their career averages would suggest weíd get 8.5 WAR total from both of them together if each produces according to their career average WAR.

Thatís an awful lot of money and years to throw at hoping to get 8-9 WAR/year, for who knows how long?
How is WAR calculated? I'm curious because do they take into account the team they are on? You could have put 2 Machado's on the Orioles and it wouldn't have helped them win 5 more games... but you add a Machado to LA and look how that team turned around?

I feel like WAR is a weird stat and players value is certainly higher based on the talent around them, especially in baseball when you truly need like 20+ players that are pretty good to win.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:45 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,944
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnTucker0814 View Post
How is WAR calculated? I'm curious because do they take into account the team they are on? You could have put 2 Machado's on the Orioles and it wouldn't have helped them win 5 more games... but you add a Machado to LA and look how that team turned around?

I feel like WAR is a weird stat and players value is certainly higher based on the talent around them, especially in baseball when you truly need like 20+ players that are pretty good to win.
Great point. I dare say the sum total of our roster is closer to that of Baltimore than the Dodgers.

Thereís no question those two together would make any team better.

But we need 19 more wins just to get to .500, and probably another 10 to be a serious contender in the AL Central. How do we get there, even with both Machado and Harper? I just donít see it.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:56 PM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,335
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Great point. I dare say the sum total of our roster is closer to that of Baltimore than the Dodgers.

Thereís no question those two together would make any team better.

But we need 19 more wins just to get to .500, and probably another 10 to be a serious contender in the AL Central. How do we get there, even with both Machado and Harper? I just donít see it.
You and the others above you are certainly not wrong, but all other things being what they are, signing either one of them definitely isnít about 2019. A 7 WAR season wonít make much of a difference next year, but it very well could in 2020 or 2021 or 2022 when for all we know there wonít be any 7 WAR position players available, much less two of them.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:57 PM
central44 central44 is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,117
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Machado and Harper would still each have to put up ~10 WAR each just to make this a .500-ish team. Do we really think Eloy would add the ~6 WAR in his rookie season to get us to 87 wins?

And even if so, does that lineup have enough to overcome the yawning gaps in the starting rotation after Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito?

Wishcast all you want, but arguing to sign both Harper and Machado is madness.
I don't think it's that crazy, honestly. Don't get me wrong; I don't see ANY chance of it happening. But the Sox are uniquely positioned to offer both of those players

1) A TON of money on a front loaded contract (seeing as they have virtually no commitments)--they could probably easily afford the 120% of market value it will take to sign them now, and then cut it back once other players start using up payroll

2) A chance to team up with one another (not sure how many other teams have the payroll flexibility to sign both guys) and be surrounded by really high upside prospects/potential all stars in Eloy, Moncada, Kopech, Cease, etc

3) A major market--and I do believe that Chicago will give a damn if the Sox give them a reason to.

Again, I don't think it'll happen but this is something the Sox absolutely should try to pull off. They do have a lot to offer. And I do believe that Reinsdorf would pay for it if it became a reality--I think he wants to win again in his lifetime.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 11-05-2018, 06:14 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,944
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Iím absolutely in favor of front-loading deals to save dollars in future years to lock up our home-grown core.

But the more we front-load a contract, the more that playerís agent will insist on opt-out language after a certain point. Then your problem is that if the player performs well during the front-loaded years, he will take the opt-out, leaving your team in a position of ponying up to retain him just when you need those resources to lock up your home grown core.

Itís not just about front-loading, itís also finding a balance of when to place the first opt-out, and timing it to get you through the first part of your competitive window without jeopardizing the second part of your competitive window, and convincing the playersí agents that itís in their best interests, too.

Those who advocate making this massive splash fundamentally are arguing to open our window sooner than it otherwise would be open.

But based on how things transpired this year, I think weíre a year too soon to answer just where our 2020 (and beyond) holes will be.

By 2021, our infield and outfield might be set (Moncada providing Machado-like production at third; Madrigal and Anderson producing up the middle; Eloy, Basabe, Robert, Rutherford and Adolfo all fighting for time in the OF), while first base and pitching might be our big areas of need for free agent dollars.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:00 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 55,349
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Machado and Harper would still each have to put up ~10 WAR each just to make this a .500-ish team. Do we really think Eloy would add the ~6 WAR in his rookie season to get us to 87 wins?

And even if so, does that lineup have enough to overcome the yawning gaps in the starting rotation after Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito?

Wishcast all you want, but arguing to sign both Harper and Machado is madness.
But you're only talking about 2019. What about 2020 and beyond? Those guys wouldn't be coming for just one year...
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:31 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 847
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Machado and Harper would still each have to put up ~10 WAR each just to make this a .500-ish team. Do we really think Eloy would add the ~6 WAR in his rookie season to get us to 87 wins?

And even if so, does that lineup have enough to overcome the yawning gaps in the starting rotation after Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito?

Wishcast all you want, but arguing to sign both Harper and Machado is madness.
Adding or subtracting players with X,Y, and Z WARs from the previous year doesn't guarantee anything in the win column. It tries to quantify how a player impacts a team in all facets of the game over an entire season, but you still have to play the games though. Adding a Harper and Eloy next season changes the entire mentality of the team and the lineup becomes good overnight, not to mention Moncada, Anderson, Rodon and Abreu easily can have way better seasons than '18.

Also, the bullpen last year was purposely bad. Just by default the bullpen in '19 will be 8 games better.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:37 PM
SouthSideSox SouthSideSox is offline
WSI Regular
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 134
Default

You guys are so used to losing that you wouldn't take on two of the best players in MLB because it'd be too damn exciting, wouldn't it?
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:45 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 55,349
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthSideSox View Post
You guys are so used to losing that you wouldn't take on two of the best players in MLB because it'd be too damn exciting, wouldn't it?
Nah, we've just been indoctrinated...


"Where will they play?"
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 11-05-2018, 08:30 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Chubbuck, Idaho
Posts: 33,307
Default

The latest from Scott Merkin as he tried to answer some questions regarding the two free agents:

https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-e...?tid=282421090
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 11-05-2018, 10:17 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,944
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
But you're only talking about 2019. What about 2020 and beyond? Those guys wouldn't be coming for just one year...
Yes, and signed through 2030 or beyond if they decline, or opting out in 2022/2023 if they keep up their production.

It’s wishcasting to assume that Harper and Machado would maintain MVP-type production through even the first part of the projected contention window, with all of that payroll committed to positions where we might just have home-grown options, who by 2022 might actually be better.

I’m not reflexively opposed to signing free agents, even to record setting deals. But if I’m going to hand out a record contract, it’s for Mike Trout. I’m wary of both Machado and Harper.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (1 members and 1 guests)
SOXBOY
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:03 AM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.