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  #151  
Old 05-20-2018, 03:56 PM
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FielderJones FielderJones is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Here is some data on "productive outs," defined as a successful pitcher sacrifice with one out, advancing any runner with no outs, or driving in a baserunner with two outs in the inning:

How can driving in a baserunner with two outs be a productive out?
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  #152  
Old 05-20-2018, 04:29 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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How can driving in a baserunner with two outs be a productive out?
Yikes. I can’t believe I typed that. I meant “with the second out,” like a sac fly or RBI groundout.
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  #153  
Old 05-21-2018, 03:40 AM
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This is the one thing that I've never understood about the Saber people. (OK I don't understand most of the Saber folks but that's another story...)

They value strikeouts highly because the ball isn't put in play...but...they also talk about pitch counts and how high pitch counts are bad.

Well if you strike out a lot of guys you are going to have high pitch counts because you need at least three pitches per strikeout.

Maybe they only want starting pitchers to only go five innings.

Doesn't make sense to me but what the hell do I know.
You're missing a key component here, and that's walks. High K rate + low BB rate is what's coveted (essentially, Bizzaro World Giolito) because it allows a pitcher to get the best outcome (strikeout) without driving up the pitch count. I don't think it's that hard to understand. Sure, every now and then a pitcher that induces a lot of contact has great success, but look at the best pitchers in baseball -- virtually all of them are strikeout artists. That's not a coincidence. Missing bats is a more valuable skill than inducing contact of any kind, weak or otherwise.
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  #154  
Old 05-21-2018, 08:24 AM
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I'm not worried about Gio.

This guy blew chunks early on in his career.

Just one example of many that can be used.
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  #155  
Old 05-21-2018, 08:27 AM
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You're missing a key component here, and that's walks. High K rate + low BB rate is what's coveted (essentially, Bizzaro World Giolito) because it allows a pitcher to get the best outcome (strikeout) without driving up the pitch count.
A high K rate drives up the pitch count.
Good pitching generally results in a reasonable amount of Ks. Good outcomes without the Ks are often a matter of luck.
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  #156  
Old 05-21-2018, 09:24 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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A high K rate drives up the pitch count.
Good pitching generally results in a reasonable amount of Ks. Good outcomes without the Ks are often a matter of luck.
I am not entirely too sure I agree with this, if you're a GM and you make sure your team has a strong defense so your pitchers can pitch more to contact, that's not luck. That's design. I get the benefit of strikeouts from a pitching perspective, don't get me wrong. But over the course of a 162 game season, if you can get your starting staff to have quicker innings with more groundouts and weak contact that means they can go deeper into games, which means you can spare your bullpen, which means down the stretch in September and in the playoffs your bullpen isn't as taxed as it would otherwise be so you can ride them more in the playoffs and get more strikeouts and rely on relievers to cover more outs.

That's the way it seems to me at least.
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  #157  
Old 05-21-2018, 09:27 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187
I am not entirely too sure I agree with this, if you're a GM and you make sure your team has a strong defense so your pitchers can pitch more to contact, that's not luck. That's design. I get the benefit of strikeouts from a pitching perspective, don't get me wrong. But over the course of a 162 game season, if you can get your starting staff to have quicker innings with more groundouts and weak contact that means they can go deeper into games, which means you can spare your bullpen, which means down the stretch in September and in the playoffs your bullpen isn't as taxed as it would otherwise be so you can ride them more in the playoffs and get more strikeouts and rely on relievers to cover more outs.

That's the way it seems to me at least.
If current trends in bullpen usage continue, the ability to go deep into games will become more irrelevant with each passing year, since starters will not be facing hitters a third time anyway.
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  #158  
Old 05-21-2018, 09:44 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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If current trends in bullpen usage continue, the ability to go deep into games will become more irrelevant with each passing year, since starters will not be facing hitters a third time anyway.
My thought on current bullpen usage though is that it means there's a higher risk your pen is gassed by the end of the season.

I don't think a team can manage it's bullpen during the course of a 162 game regular season the same way they can during the playoffs, and it seems like the trend is to manage bullpens more like it is the playoffs. Now maybe I'm 100% wrong on this and a team could find a way to make it work, but for now I'm dubious.
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  #159  
Old 05-21-2018, 10:35 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is online now
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I'm not worried about Gio.

This guy blew chunks early on in his career.

Just one example of many that can be used.
I am not worried about Giolito either but at this point in Koufax's career he was 2:1 strikeouts to walks.

When Gio reaches parity in strikeouts to walks then maybe we can say he's turning the corner.

Until then he has a lot of work to do.
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  #160  
Old 05-21-2018, 10:48 AM
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If current trends in bullpen usage continue, the ability to go deep into games will become more irrelevant with each passing year, since starters will not be facing hitters a third time anyway.
https://theathletic.com/362065/2018/...nto-something/

Ken Rosenthal had an interesting article about this and what the Rays are experimenting with. Also, sorry if this is hijacking the thread about Giolito!
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  #161  
Old 05-21-2018, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I am not entirely too sure I agree with this, if you're a GM and you make sure your team has a strong defense so your pitchers can pitch more to contact, that's not luck. That's design. I get the benefit of strikeouts from a pitching perspective, don't get me wrong. But over the course of a 162 game season, if you can get your starting staff to have quicker innings with more groundouts and weak contact that means they can go deeper into games, which means you can spare your bullpen, which means down the stretch in September and in the playoffs your bullpen isn't as taxed as it would otherwise be so you can ride them more in the playoffs and get more strikeouts and rely on relievers to cover more outs.

That's the way it seems to me at least.
It's never a good idea to have a pitching strategy that includes trying to get the opposition to put the ball in play. Weak contact is more often than not a by-product of trying to induce a swing and miss.
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  #162  
Old 05-21-2018, 10:46 PM
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It's never a good idea to have a pitching strategy that includes trying to get the opposition to put the ball in play.


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  #163  
Old 05-22-2018, 09:29 AM
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It's never a good idea to have a pitching strategy that includes trying to get the opposition to put the ball in play. Weak contact is more often than not a by-product of trying to induce a swing and miss.
I strongly disagree, in most of baseball's history the strategy was geared around trying to induce weak contact and record an out in the field. I also would think that with all the shifting and all the data on where hitters hit the ball, it would behoove pitchers to pitch to contact more often now.
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  #164  
Old 05-22-2018, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I strongly disagree, in most of baseball's history the strategy was geared around trying to induce weak contact and record an out in the field. I also would think that with all the shifting and all the data on where hitters hit the ball, it would behoove pitchers to pitch to contact more often now.
But hitting approaches have changed a lot. Babe Ruth used a 40 OZ bat. Baseballs were reused and even retrieved from the stands to be used again. Now a baseball gets used for one contact then discarded and they are tighter and harder than ever - even if MLB won't admit it. Many pitchers say the seams are lower also reducing the ability to get spin. Exit velocity is climbing dramatically. Bats are lighter and stronger to generate even more power.

MLB has done all of this on purpose to generate more offense after the steroid era ended.
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  #165  
Old 05-22-2018, 10:22 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
But hitting approaches have changed a lot. Babe Ruth used a 40 OZ bat. Baseballs were reused and even retrieved from the stands to be used again. Now a baseball gets used for one contact then discarded and they are tighter and harder than ever - even if MLB won't admit it. Many pitchers say the seams are lower also reducing the ability to get spin. Exit velocity is climbing dramatically. Bats are lighter and stronger to generate even more power.

MLB has done all of this on purpose to generate more offense after the steroid era ended.
The game constantly changes, but even in the 1990s guys like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were able to get to the Hall of Fame by inducing weak contact. Now that does require a team to have a good defense behind it.

I know the trend now is have pitchers try to get as many strikeouts as possible, which means your starters don't go as deep into games (some teams like the Rays appear to be abandoning the idea of starters altogether). I would think that this means a team's pitching staff would be gassed by the September rolls around.

If your starters can throw more innings with fewer pitchers through fewer strikeouts, you can save your bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs.
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