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  #211  
Old 12-17-2017, 11:17 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Two years of Jose Abreu are more valuable to the White Sox than one year of Manny Machado, and the Orioles don't need a 1B/DH type, which is why I don't think Abreu's part of the offer.

This site lists the Orioles' needs as "SP (at least 2); Catcher; OF". Plus they will need a 3B if Machado is dealt.

Obviously, no team is going to fill all their needs for one year of Machado. Baltimore might be able to get one starter, one reserve at another position, one prospect, and a throw-in.

Let's see how that translates to what the Sox might be willing to part with -- keeping in mind that in a rational world they would just walk away and try to sign Machado in free agency.

Rodon + Kevan Smith or Matt Davidson + Jimmy Lambert

Why? Rodon has an injury history and will definitely go to free agency when his time comes, but he could be the most talented pitcher anyone offers to Baltimore. I would rather see him dealt than Giolito or Lopez. Smith lost his spot with the Castillo signing and might be a good complement for the Orioles' young lefthanded catcher, Chance Sisco; Davidson would surely lose all his playing time if the Sox acquired Machado. Lambert or another A-ball starter rounds out the package.

OR

Avi Garcia + Spencer Adams + Smith or Davidson

Why? Sox should sell high on Garcia and Orioles need a right fielder. Adams will be a back-of-the-rotation starter soon. Smith and Davidson make sense in any package.

OR

Carson Fulmer + Adams + Tyler Danish or Jordan Guerrero + Smith or Davidson

Why? This is more of a depth package. Fulmer is the most expendable of our so-called top prospects. Danish and Guerrero still have major-league starter upside, and the Orioles aren't going to contend for a while.
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  #212  
Old 12-17-2017, 11:56 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
I would do it simply to turn around and flip Machado for a better prospect package than I can get by flipping Abreu.

You are correct that Machado’s 2018 production means nothing in the grand scheme of winning a championship. However, that same standard needs to be applied to both players, because Abreu’s 2018 and 2019 production means nothing in that context, either.
This is true, but if Abreu makes guys like Moncada, Robert and Jimenez feel at home and adapt to the majors that might add to Abreu's value to the White Sox.

So I suppose my argument here essentially boils down to this: two seasons of Abreu's production plus whatever intangibles he brings as a "clubhouse leader" is probably worth more than one season of Machado's production and then whatever draft pick we'd get from a qualifying offer.

Now, were the Sox just one piece away from contending, my opinion would be different. But we're not, and it also seems like the Sox would be creating more holes to fill whatever hole Machado would fill.
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  #213  
Old 12-17-2017, 12:39 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Abreu’s best season by WAR was 5.5 in 2014. Machado has posted three seasons much better than that, with totals of 7.1 in 2015, 6.7 in 2013, and 6.7 in 2016.
That's WAR which includes defense. If your specific need is a bat, Abreu is a better hitter.
And that much of Machado's WAR comes from D is why I'm not terribly interested for $300 million...some definite Heyward risk. 2.7 WAR last year
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  #214  
Old 12-17-2017, 12:42 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post

Let's see how that translates to what the Sox might be willing to part with -- keeping in mind that in a rational world they would just walk away and try to sign Machado in free agency.
Of course Abreu isn't part of it. Not only is he not what the Orioles need, he's part of this (in fact he may be the) "clubhouse culture" Rick Hahn apparently thinks is so comfy that it will cause Free agents to come here. And heck, this FO probably thinks that one player will improve the team 20 games and the Sox can actually contend this year (it wouldn't be the first time Hahn engaged in such delusion) or at least improve enough that FAs will think the Sox can win in 2019. (If the Sox are ready to win in 2019, that will be apparent in 2018 with or without Machado on the 2018 team).
Why can't the front office act rationally?

Last edited by Tragg; 12-17-2017 at 12:48 PM.
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  #215  
Old 12-17-2017, 12:49 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Of course Abreu isn't part of it. Not only is he not what the Orioles need, he's part of this (in fact he may be the) "clubhouse culture" Rick Hahn apparently thinks is so comfy that it will cause Free agents to come here. And heck, this FO probably thinks that one player will improve the team 20 games and the Sox can actually contend this year (it wouldn't be the first time Hahn engaged in such delusion) or at least improve enough that FAs will think the Sox can win in 2019. Their feet just don't appear to be grounded in reality.
Why can't the front office act rationally?
Why are you accepting media speculation as if it is fact?
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  #216  
Old 12-17-2017, 01:15 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Camden Depot (O's fan site) says "Based on what I hear, the most any team has offered has been a single top 100 player and a couple lower tier players" which (he says) could be Alec Hansen, Carson Fulmer, and Jake Burger. And "The above package would likely disappoint folks."

Good luck with that! Hansen should be a top 25 prospect when the new rankings come out. He could end up better than Kopech, and ought to be untouchable. I wouldn't give up Burger, either -- we will need a third baseman once Machado leaves.

I continue to think Avi makes the most sense as a headliner, since the article also laments their corner outfield problems.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017...chado-and.html
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  #217  
Old 12-17-2017, 01:43 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
Why are you accepting media speculation as if it is fact?
Seriously. Lots of ripping on Sox management based on unsubstantiated trade rumors. Some fans obviously have a huge ax to grind with Rick Hahn and Sox management and these rumors are merely another opportunity to go off on them. The Rule 5 draft discussion in another thread is another example of this. A lot of outrage on that thread and the Sox end up losing nobody. I'll save my praises or jeers for if and when a trade is finalized.

IMO, the Machado to the Sox rumors are nothing to get worked up about. At most, it may have been RH just kicking the tires on a player of potential interest. GMs do this all the time and there's nothing wrong with that. In all likelihood, if the Sox really want Machado as a future franchise cornerstone, they'll simply have to cough up a staggering about of money next winter when he's a FA and will probably sign a deal with the highest bidder. That's something to worry about next winter.
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  #218  
Old 12-17-2017, 04:52 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Now do 2016. Abreu’s WAR that season was below 3, while Machado’s WAR was over 6.5.
You look backwards; I'll look forward.
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  #219  
Old 12-17-2017, 05:05 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grzegorz
You look backwards; I'll look forward.
Right, because ancient history like 2015 and 2016 doesn’t matter.

As for “going forward,” I think it’s highly unlikely that Abreu finishes with a higher WAR than Machado in 2018.
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  #220  
Old 12-17-2017, 06:04 PM
Whitesox029 Whitesox029 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Machado has said he will not accept an extension, and there are lots of other teams who take care of their alumni. Thinking that the Sox have any sort of advantage in team culture, and it will make him change his mind and sign before any competitive bidding happens, is folly.
That's not what I said. I said they treat their players well. I am 100% against trading for Machado.
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  #221  
Old 12-17-2017, 07:39 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Meanwhile, all we have to go on is rumor. And current rumor says both that the Sox made the top offer and that they did not offer any of their top prospects. I think that makes it pretty clear that the return for 1 year of Machado is not going to be all that high if he gets traded at all.

Meanwhile, rumor has it the Sox are asking for top prospects in return for 2 years of Abreu... if he gets traded at all.

One can make a strong case that Machado's bat and defense at 3B is worth more than Abreu's at 1B, particularly when accounting for the age difference between the two. But, assuming these rumors are relatively true, it would seem fairly clear that two years of Abreu is worth more than one year of Machado to the league.
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  #222  
Old 12-17-2017, 08:02 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew C White
Meanwhile, all we have to go on is rumor. And current rumor says both that the Sox made the top offer and that they did not offer any of their top prospects. I think that makes it pretty clear that the return for 1 year of Machado is not going to be all that high if he gets traded at all.

Meanwhile, rumor has it the Sox are asking for top prospects in return for 2 years of Abreu... if he gets traded at all.

One can make a strong case that Machado's bat and defense at 3B is worth more than Abreu's at 1B, particularly when accounting for the age difference between the two. But, assuming these rumors are relatively true, it would seem fairly clear that two years of Abreu is worth more than one year of Machado to the league.
We need to remember that our farm system is so deep that our offer headlined by our 5th-best or 6th-best prospect may be better than offers headlined by other teams’ best or 2nd-best prospects.

It sounds like Peter Angelos may be meddling in the process, too. That may handcuff Dan Duquette in this move.
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  #223  
Old 12-17-2017, 08:20 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Interesting... granted that Machado is much younger than Abreu, that Abreu is in his prime during these years and Machado has not yet entered his...

Comparing 5 years of Machado's hitting stats:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...tting_standard

to Abreu's 4 years:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...tting_standard

Abreu compares very nicely. When you look at their average seasons or per-162 numbers Abreu comes out ahead pretty much across the board.

This is similar to the results I saw when I compared Abreu to Harper a while back. Granted those guys are younger with longer term value and the potential to be better than Abreu when it is all said and done but what it shows me is that I don't think we all appreciate just how good Abreu is.
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  #224  
Old 12-17-2017, 11:36 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Abreu is an awesome hitter, great team leader in the clubhouse, and I am very happy he plays for the White Sox. That being said, I would take Machado in a heartbeat over Jose.
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  #225  
Old 12-18-2017, 04:09 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrew c white View Post
interesting... Granted that machado is much younger than abreu, that abreu is in his prime during these years and machado has not yet entered his...

Comparing 5 years of machado's hitting stats:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...tting_standard

to abreu's 4 years:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...tting_standard

abreu compares very nicely. When you look at their average seasons or per-162 numbers abreu comes out ahead pretty much across the board.

This is similar to the results i saw when i compared abreu to harper a while back. Granted those guys are younger with longer term value and the potential to be better than abreu when it is all said and done but what it shows me is that i don't think we all appreciate just how good abreu is.
+1
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