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  #316  
Old Today, 12:02 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
I appreciate your position, but if front offices are not considering it one of the major metrics anymore, maybe we should think about changing, too.
I'm not so sure that that's the case, I'm 99.9% sure I've read a Ken Rosenthal article talking about Harper where some unnamed executive said something along the lines of a .214 batting average is always a red flag, which would suggest they pay attention to it.

I'd imagine, and I have no way of knowing this, I THINK that there isn't a single or even group of metrics that front offices look at, I think they look at the whole picture and then compare those stats to what their scouts are seeing.
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  #317  
Old Today, 02:02 PM
Foulke You Foulke You is offline
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Originally Posted by TommyJohn View Post
Didnít Levine or someone write a Schwarber article in which he did compare him to Babe Ruth in terms of his power?.
Yes he did. If you have the stomach to make it through this. Here it is:
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/02...inues-to-grow/


Fun fact: I once got into a Twitter debate with Tribune writer Teddy Greenstein who tried to DENY that the media openly compared Schwarber to Babe Ruth. I produced this slobbering Bruce Levine article as one of the many examples backing my claim.
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  #318  
Old Today, 02:34 PM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is offline
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Originally Posted by Foulke You View Post
Yes he did. If you have the stomach to make it through this. Here it is:
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/02...inues-to-grow/


Fun fact: I once got into a Twitter debate with Tribune writer Teddy Greenstein who tried to DENY that the media openly compared Schwarber to Babe Ruth. I produced this slobbering Bruce Levine article as one of the many examples backing my claim.
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  #319  
Old Today, 05:50 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by asindc
Harper is not the best case to demonstrate that strikeouts don’t matter, since his decline in production can be directly attributed to his decline in contact rate. Furthermore, he has shown in the past that he can produce these kind of power numbers without striking out so much, meaning it can’t be said that he is striking out more in an attempt to maintain his power numbers. In other words, some of those strikeouts were HRs, doubles, triples, and yes precious singles (#OBP, #Advancing Runners, #RBI Opportunities, #Much Better Than Making An Out, And Even Better Than a Walk (duh!)) in previous seasons.
No one said anything about strikeouts. The fact that Harper’s strikeout percentage is up (24.6, 3.7% higher than his career average) plays no part in an analysis based on BABIP. The point is that a .226 BABIP suggests that his .214 overall average is due for a pretty sizable increase in the second half. In fact, such a low BABIP suggests that the increase in strikeouts is a relatively minor factor in his regression; the problem is not so much the increased lack of contact as it is the horrible results he is getting on the contact he does make.

Lowering Harper’s strikeouts from his current 102 down to 86, which is in line with his career norms, we would end up with about 15 more balls in play (1 of the 16 non-strikeouts likely would leave the park). With a BABIP of .226, only 3, maybe 4, of those 15 balls in play would be hits. His overall average would climb from .214 to .226 or .229 as a result, still a far cry from his historical outputs.

Besides, the increased strikeouts have been accompanied by an even higher increase in walks (18.8%, 4.4% higher than his career average), which means that a return to career norms in BABIP likely would result in even better overall out avoidance despite the uptick in strikeouts.

In other words, if I have to choose between a .380-ish OBP player who strikes out 25% of the time or a .350-ish OBP player who strikes out only 20% (or 15%, or any %) of the time, I’m going to take the extra non-outs over the extra “pretty” outs 100 times out of 100. You should, too.
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Last edited by Mohoney; Today at 06:08 PM.
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