White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
GO SOX! DSNB!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-02-2018, 01:56 AM
thomas35forever's Avatar
thomas35forever thomas35forever is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lombard
Posts: 27,454
Default Rebuild crowd, is this what you wanted?

Those who were focused almost completely on maximizing draft position for 2019, was it worth all the suffering of a 100-loss season, including the lack of significant progress by most of the organization's young talent and Michael Kopech's torn UCL? For me, I'm fine with the third pick, but everything that came with hitting the century mark in the loss column made this one very tough to take. Worse yet, I don't see any real improvement next season except for Eloy Jimenez finally making the bigs. I'm sure better days are ahead as they're prone to be for rebuilding teams that stockpile young talent, but I honestly feel less confident that the Sox will hit their mark in 2020, 2021 or maybe ever. Given the organization's tendencies, I can see this rebuild just as likely to set the franchise back another five years as to become a perennial playoff contender.


Am I being a dark cloud here? In spite of the justification for it, I can't stand my team losing 100 games under any circumstances. I feel it means we're further away from success than we realized.


Bottom line: were you actually happy to see this play out the way it did? If so, why?
__________________
Consistency lost
If found, please return to 333 W. 35th Street, Chicago. Generous reward offered.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-02-2018, 03:50 AM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Joliet
Posts: 21,487
Default

That's a really silly question to be asking when we're still at the beginning of the process. It insinuates that our end goal was to be ****ty at baseball and for everything to go wrong. Also, Kopech's injury wasn't a result of the team's plan for the future, so bringing it up as a "was it worth that?" isn't the least bit fair.

As for your pessimism, that's silly, too. As I mentioned earlier, we're still early on in the process. Coming to any kind of conclusion about a multi-year strategy after one season doesn't make any sense. Some rebuilds fail, and this one might, as well. But having a bad season at the beginning of that rebuild doesn't mean that it has failed.
__________________
Rock over London. Rock on, Chicago.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-02-2018, 04:27 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 5,044
Default

It's a baseball blog; the question is fine. Early on the team as a whole played to worst quality of baseball I'd have ever seen. Then they got it together, or at least played a less objectionable quality of baseball.

I'd has hoped the events around this season had not happen (Burger, Adolpho, injuries to pitchers over this year and last specifically) an one hundred losses is really an embarrassment. Hopefully the pick that came from such a bad season of baseball develops into a perennial all-star for the White Sox. Maybe it's the catcher from Oregon State?

Maybe an infielder? This team needs more pitching depth. The staff this year issued the most BB issues, SO were in the bottom third of the league and as a staff had a terrible terrible WHIP. That said, the parent club needs a pitching coach at the big league level.

With 2018 in the books I hope the worst is behind us fans. I expect much better play in all phases of the game in 2019.
__________________
“There were a few hard rules, but everybody was unique, and he understood that. George’s great strength was he didn’t overcoach. There’s no place for panic on the mound.” - Jim Palmer on George Bamberger “Arms and the man,” Sports Illustrated, April 19, 2004
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:33 AM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,025
Default

The injuries are concerning, and slow progress for certain prospects is a little moreso. But we've gotten some pretty good talent drafting third in the past, and next draft shouldn't be any different.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-02-2018, 05:58 AM
harwar harwar is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lake Mills,Wisconsin
Posts: 3,427
Default

I'm sure that no one is happy about much that happened this year, but we probably all knew that this was going to be a painful process .. my memory is pretty damn bad, but didn't Rick Hahn say that this would be the worst year of the rebuild .. anyway you looked at it, 2018 was always going to be rough .. i'm one of those guys that never expected anything in 2019, other than a slight improvement .. 2020 was the year that i expected to break .500 .. i've always looked to 2021 as the year to start making a move ..
__________________
Strong Pitching .. Solid Defense
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:41 AM
shingo10 shingo10 is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,441
Default

I'm happy that we didn't finish the season playing like we did in August so it will hopefully squash any delusions of "competing" next year. This was an awful baseball team with a lineup that would struggle to compete in triple A. The injuries to our prospects were maddening so hopefully this next year will see us stay healthy and start to see some growth.
__________________
TWTW
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-02-2018, 01:33 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 18,578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
The injuries are concerning, and slow progress for certain prospects is a little moreso. But we've gotten some pretty good talent drafting third in the past, and next draft shouldn't be any different.

The injuries could have been expected statistically if you look at baseball as a whole, especially when you look at pitching. The farther away a prospect is from the majors, the greater his chance of not fulfilling his promise, and injuries are a big part of that.

The premise that you can trade players for prospects that will develop in a straight line to success, if not stardom, is flawed. For all the No. 1 prospects that achieve stardom, there are plenty of "future stars" that you wouldn't want to give up much for in trade if you had the advantage of historical hindsight. The bad mojo of White Sox player development doesn't come into play. Addison Russell was a No. 1 prospect when the Cubs traded for him, and he isn't a factor with the Cubs. Jurickson Profar was consensus No. 1 before the 2013 season and hasn't figured it out through 2018.

Byron Buxton, was No. 1 before Moncada. Buxton looked like he had figured it out in 2017 after a rough start. He even found his way on a couple of MVP ballots at season's end. In 2018, he seemed an automatic out until he got hurt in May. After his rehab stint, the Twins left him in the minors. Some speculate he's still hurt. Some speculate it's to postpone his eligibility for free agency.
Of course, if you make bad trades, if you don't care about winning, you get better draft picks. Pick players who appear to be future stars. Carson Fulmer was considered by scouts to be closer to major league success than any other pitcher in the draft. But you don't have to be the White Sox to pick badly. During their rebuild, the Astros with the first overall selection picked a pitcher who is out of baseball never having made it to the majors.

The scorched-earth rebuild model isn't so much a plan as it is buying time for an organization. Get rid of the assets. Cut the payroll. No one expects the team to win, and the reward for losing is more high draft picks.
The reality is that if a few players distinguish themselves, as one would expect statistically, you may not be better off than you were before you traded the few players who had distinguished themselves before they brought back prospects in trade. Then, as the shampoo bottle advises, it's rinse and repeat.

I was upset when the White Sox traded Sale because they got so little in return. (If it turns out the White Sox got more for Quintana, who was struggling at the end with the Sox, than Sale, that sort of reinforces my belief.) I believed the White Sox would be better off trying to build a winning team around what they had, a concept that I think is less delusional than belief in the current rebuild model. Cleveland isn't so good that the rest of the division shouldn't be giving up. (Maybe the Twins would have been there with them if they had gotten the kind of year they expected out of Buxton.)

Hahn's trade for Shield might counter my argument, but it doesn't help the argument of those who trust he knows what he is doing.

I keep hoping Hahn gets lucky while the rest of baseball continues to get bad. But that's a far different feeling than confidence.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-02-2018, 02:12 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 20,727
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
The injuries could have been expected statistically if you look at baseball as a whole, especially when you look at pitching. The farther away a prospect is from the majors, the greater his chance of not fulfilling his promise, and injuries are a big part of that.

The premise that you can trade players for prospects that will develop in a straight line to success, if not stardom, is flawed. For all the No. 1 prospects that achieve stardom, there are plenty of "future stars" that you wouldn't want to give up much for in trade if you had the advantage of historical hindsight. The bad mojo of White Sox player development doesn't come into play. Addison Russell was a No. 1 prospect when the Cubs traded for him, and he isn't a factor with the Cubs. Jurickson Profar was consensus No. 1 before the 2013 season and hasn't figured it out through 2018.

Byron Buxton, was No. 1 before Moncada. Buxton looked like he had figured it out in 2017 after a rough start. He even found his way on a couple of MVP ballots at season's end. In 2018, he seemed an automatic out until he got hurt in May. After his rehab stint, the Twins left him in the minors. Some speculate he's still hurt. Some speculate it's to postpone his eligibility for free agency.
Of course, if you make bad trades, if you don't care about winning, you get better draft picks. Pick players who appear to be future stars. Carson Fulmer was considered by scouts to be closer to major league success than any other pitcher in the draft. But you don't have to be the White Sox to pick badly. During their rebuild, the Astros with the first overall selection picked a pitcher who is out of baseball never having made it to the majors.

The scorched-earth rebuild model isn't so much a plan as it is buying time for an organization. Get rid of the assets. Cut the payroll. No one expects the team to win, and the reward for losing is more high draft picks.
The reality is that if a few players distinguish themselves, as one would expect statistically, you may not be better off than you were before you traded the few players who had distinguished themselves before they brought back prospects in trade. Then, as the shampoo bottle advises, it's rinse and repeat.

I was upset when the White Sox traded Sale because they got so little in return. (If it turns out the White Sox got more for Quintana, who was struggling at the end with the Sox, than Sale, that sort of reinforces my belief.) I believed the White Sox would be better off trying to build a winning team around what they had, a concept that I think is less delusional than belief in the current rebuild model. Cleveland isn't so good that the rest of the division shouldn't be giving up. (Maybe the Twins would have been there with them if they had gotten the kind of year they expected out of Buxton.)

Hahn's trade for Shield might counter my argument, but it doesn't help the argument of those who trust he knows what he is doing.

I keep hoping Hahn gets lucky while the rest of baseball continues to get bad. But that's a far different feeling than confidence.

I respect your point of view, TDog. But I don't think the Sox could have acquired enough players to build around Sale, Eaton, and Quintana, in the time that those players had remaining on their contracts. Making several bad deals along the way robbed our organization of talent, as did the 16-year project of continually trading prospects for veterans, as did the Doug Wilder scandal, as did the previous philosophy of spending as little as possible on bonuses for draftees.


Along with drafting and developing better, and not letting Doug Wilder torpedo the Latin American operations, I think the Sox might have been able to field a competitive team around Sale, Eaton, and Quintana, had they NOT:


1. Traded Gio Gonzalez (and others) for Swisher in 2008; Gio Gonzalez could still be a useful mid-rotation starter for us today;


2. Signed John Danks after the 2011 season; and instead given a four-year contract to Mark Buehrle (although I can't fault them for lack of clairvoyance regarding Danks' shoulder); and later after Buehrle's retirement plowed that money into roster improvements elsewhere;


3. Traded Marcus Semien (and others) for Jeff Samardzija; Semien would be an acceptable third baseman today;



4. Replaced Tyler Flowers with Dioner Navarro; Flowers went on to have very good seasons in 2016 and 2017 and at the very least still could be an acceptable platoon partner catcher;


5. Signed Adam Dunn after 2010 and Adam LaRoche after 2014; both turned out to be colossal wastes of money that could have been used to upgrade the roster elsewhere;



6. Traded Tatis and Johnson for Shields in 2016 (although it's debatable how much Johnson might have helped in the interim).


BUT, all of those bad decisions are in the past. We can't undo them. Those decisions having been made, I don't think it would have been possible to build around Sale, Eaton and Quintana in the time that remains on their respective contracts.
__________________
The universe is the practical joke of the General at the expense of the Particular, quoth Frater Perdurabo, and laughed. The disciples nearest him wept, seeing the Universal Sorrow. Others laughed, seeing the Universal Joke. Others wept. Others laughed. Others wept because they couldn't see the Joke, and others laughed lest they should be thought not to see the Joke. But though FRATER laughed openly, he wept secretly; and really he neither laughed nor wept. Nor did he mean what he said.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:05 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 5,044
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
The injuries could have been expected statistically if you look at baseball as a whole, especially when you look at pitching.
Bad outcomes do not become acceptable when those comprising the cohort cluster tightly around the mean.

Last edited by Grzegorz; 10-02-2018 at 06:17 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-02-2018, 09:14 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 13,415
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint View Post
That's a really silly question to be asking when we're still at the beginning of the process. It insinuates that our end goal was to be ****ty at baseball and for everything to go wrong. Also, Kopech's injury wasn't a result of the team's plan for the future, so bringing it up as a "was it worth that?" isn't the least bit fair.

As for your pessimism, that's silly, too. As I mentioned earlier, we're still early on in the process. Coming to any kind of conclusion about a multi-year strategy after one season doesn't make any sense. Some rebuilds fail, and this one might, as well. But having a bad season at the beginning of that rebuild doesn't mean that it has failed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
It's a baseball blog; the question is fine. Early on the team as a whole played to worst quality of baseball I'd have ever seen. Then they got it together, or at least played a less objectionable quality of baseball.

I'd has hoped the events around this season had not happen (Burger, Adolpho, injuries to pitchers over this year and last specifically) an one hundred losses is really an embarrassment. Hopefully the pick that came from such a bad season of baseball develops into a perennial all-star for the White Sox. Maybe it's the catcher from Oregon State?

Maybe an infielder? This team needs more pitching depth. The staff this year issued the most BB issues, SO were in the bottom third of the league and as a staff had a terrible terrible WHIP. That said, the parent club needs a pitching coach at the big league level.

With 2018 in the books I hope the worst is behind us fans. I expect much better play in all phases of the game in 2019.
Good answers both of you.

I doubt any Sox fan is going to say that they're happy that Kopech tore his UCL because it helped us secure the 3rd overall pick? I also really doubt any Sox fan, even those eyeing that 3rd pick, were rooting for top prospects to get injured or to under-perform.

Also, let's not forget that a number of top prospects did make good progress this year other than Jimenez: Cease, Lopez, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Basabe. Madrigal hitting .300 and only 5 strikeouts in High-A right out of college. Even Kopech and Dunning made great progress before being injured and I still expect them to be part of a successful Sox in a couple of years. There's no reason to think that Kopech's TJS or Dunning's elbow strain have wiped them out of the picture.

100 losses is not something any fan wants, but I don't see it as a reliable indicator that this rebuild is headed for failure. If things work out in a couple of years, people aren't going to remember whether the Sox lost 95, 99, or 100 games this year.

To answer the OP's question: yes, I think you're being a dark cloud. But, I can't blame you. We are in a dark time for this franchise. It's hard to be upbeat when the promise of a payoff is still a couple years away and not guaranteed. But, as others have said, there's still reason to hope for 2020 or 2021.

Last edited by Hitmen77; 10-02-2018 at 09:20 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 10-02-2018, 06:42 AM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Northern 'Burbs
Posts: 742
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomas35forever View Post

Bottom line: were you actually happy to see this play out the way it did? If so, why?
Not happy, but I did expect to go through significant pain for a few years, so totally expected it. I think having a competitive team this year would have been a nice surprise, but that is it. And I don't get stressed about injuries, that is just how things are nowadays. My motto is keep piling on the draft picks (we should add another high pick in 2020 based on a mediocre 2019 as well), expect that a good many will fail, but some will hit. Then add a few key free agent signings and we are back in business.

Another way to think about it positively is what if they kept with the "middle of the road" approach? A barren farm system and over the hill free agent signings?

I am all in on the rebuild.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 10-02-2018, 07:42 AM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 58,475
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Not ecstatic with the results but not upset. I don't care about the 100 loss thing. I don't see a huge difference between 99 and 100. I would have liked to avoid it but in the end it's just one more loss and this season was lost a long time ago.

Would have liked to see more development from Giolito and Moncada, but am pleased with Anderson and Lopez and several players are rising well through the minors. Not sure if many other position players are even on the team when the window opens.

Hoping for a good year next year, but I agree the official window opens in 2021 unless several unexpected players take huge steps next year. That's possible, but I'm not counting on it. With injury to Kopech the pitching staff has been set back a year so that piece in the puzzle will not be as finished/ready as I was hoping for, but hopefully they will be fine in 2020.

Eyes on the minors and taking a long range view.
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 10-02-2018, 08:41 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 7,190
Default

During a rebuild, it is the job of the major league club to LOSE games and IMPROVE DRAFT POSITION. The 2018 White Sox did this acceptably, but probably could have lost a few more games. There were a lot of times when people like Palka won a game for us that the Sox were probably better off losing. On the other hand, Baltimore was just so bad this year maybe there was no way we could have ever caught them. I was much more disappointed by the 2017 White Sox, who realistically could have won the #1 draft pick but blew it with a late season rally.

On the MLB team, there are only a handful of players whose stats and performance matters: Moncada, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, Anderson, Sanchez, and a couple of the newest bullpen guys like Burr and Hamilton. THIS is where the disappointment is from. These guys mostly played poorly. They need to get better. They have time to get better, we don't need them to be good until 2020 or so. But guys like Palka, Delmonico, Engel, Shields, etc., their job is to lose games. They did it.

There are plenty of prospects at the A level who played well this season. It gives us some hope for the future. I agree that with Moncada, Lopez, Giolito, etc. all underwhelming, maybe we are looking at 2021 or 2022 as the first year the Sox are good instead of 2020.

I think all the talk of the Sox competing in 2019 was delusional, and so I'm not really bummed out by Kopech missing a season. What I hope to see from the 2019 White Sox is (1) signing or otherwise acquiring a bunch of older free agents to 1-2 year deals over the offseason like Soria last offseason (2) trading those guys at the deadline for more prospects, and (3) another top-5 draft pick.
__________________
"Hope...may be indulged in by those who have abundant resources...but its nature is to be extravagant, and those who go so far as to stake their all upon the venture see it in its true colors only when they are ruined."
-- Thucydides
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 10-02-2018, 08:48 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 7,190
Default

More fundamentally, I'm glad that owners and fans across MLB (and other sports) now realize that baseball rewards excellence with championships, rewards terribleness with prospects, and has no reward for mediocrity.

For most of history, mediocrity has been the White Sox middle name. The White Sox rarely finish in first place, but they also rarely finish in last place. The history of the Sox contains few 100-loss seasons, but plenty of years where they finished in a relatively distant second or third with a team that was entertaining to watch during wins but not consistent enough to go anywhere.

So this is a bit of a culture shock, something very different from White Sox history. But it's necessary and rational.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 10-03-2018, 04:25 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 5,044
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
During a rebuild, it is the job of the major league club to LOSE games and IMPROVE DRAFT POSITION.


Yep, the race to the bottom theory. Sounds great!



Real organizations have much more important issues to address.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:58 AM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.