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  #31  
Old 02-17-2018, 05:58 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is online now
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If Anderson has another year like 2017, Machado is welcome to shortstop.

But Nightengale keeps hinting that Machado wants to go to the Yankees.
Despite our current payroll, I have a hard time imagining that we will be able to win a bidding war.
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  #32  
Old 02-17-2018, 08:35 PM
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  #33  
Old 02-17-2018, 09:19 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
That risk needs to be weighed against the risk of dedicating significant payroll to Avi when he hits the open market after 2019. If his 2018 and 2019 numbers validate his 2017 numbers, we would then be talking about an AAV north of $20 million.
Any team has to pay good players a lot of money at some point. Or a team could do like Pittsburgh did for over a decade and trade all their good players before they had to pay them a lot of money, with predictable results.
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  #34  
Old 02-17-2018, 10:11 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Realistically, I'm expecting around 75 wins. I'm hoping for a team that's exciting, has a lot of offense but is probably short on pitching. I'm hoping that the key young guys can contribute a lot.

I do think the rotation is an injury away from completely unraveling, and who knows about the bullpen, so a sub-70 win season isn't completely out of the question but I could see a way where the team wins 68 games but as a fan I feel pretty confident about the team's chances in 2019.

Conversely, I could theoretically see a way where the team wins somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 games and winds up winning a second wildcard. I don't think it's entirely likely and for that to happen literally EVERYTHING would have to go right, but it COULD happen.
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  #35  
Old 02-17-2018, 10:44 PM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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1.) We won more games than last year.
2.) Once we’re “out of it” then we turn around some players into prospects. For example, if we aren’t going to re-sign Abreu or Avi, trading one or both to a team that likes a favorable contract (Avi) and one more arb year (both) could be fruitful.
3.) Our young arms to show progress in development.

In the mostly a hope bucket: Shields can throw 150+ IP with a 5.00 or less ERA.
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  #36  
Old 02-18-2018, 10:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
Any team has to pay good players a lot of money at some point. Or a team could do like Pittsburgh did for over a decade and trade all their good players before they had to pay them a lot of money, with predictable results.
Right. I see complaints all the time here about the Sox acting like a small market team. If you want them to act like a big market team, pay good players well no matter where they come from.

This is a separate argument from whether Avi's 2017 season was a fluke. If it was not a fluke, why wouldn't you want to pay a free agent with .885 OPS?
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  #37  
Old 02-18-2018, 01:28 PM
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I expect that they'll move on quickly from fringe prospects who prove themselves unworthy.

So long, Dylan "Duck and" Covey.
Sox just outrighted Covey.

The year is already a success!
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  #38  
Old 02-18-2018, 02:24 PM
XplodingScorbord XplodingScorbord is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Sox just outrighted Covey.

The year is already a success!
Interesting. Opening a spot on the 40-man for...a free agent signing?
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  #39  
Old 02-18-2018, 03:04 PM
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Interesting. Opening a spot on the 40-man for...a free agent signing?
It doesn't hurt to have space this time of year, but it was also time to end the Covey experiment and try some others.
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  #40  
Old 02-18-2018, 05:04 PM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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.500 would be nice, still too many question marks.
+1.
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  #41  
Old 02-18-2018, 07:13 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is online now
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A blueprint for this team could be the 1980 Sox, who were 70-90 but improved to .500 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. They were 87-75 in 1982, then won 99 and should have won a WS championship in 1983 but for Tito ****ing Landrum.

1980 (70-90) had one actual star, Chet Lemon; 2017 had Abreu. The 1980 team had a young lefty starter, Steve Trout, who never lived up to his ability (Rodon?) It had a great rookie class in Harold Baines, Britt Burns, and Richard Dotson; 2017 had comparables in Moncada, Lopez, & Giolito.

The reason the '81-83 Sox improved so much so fast is that Reinsdorf/Einhorn went all-in for veterans, to build credibility. They stole Carlton Fisk, signed Greg Luzinski and Ron LeFlore. GM Roland Hemond had a couple of good under-the-radar pickups in Bill Almon and Tony Bernazard.

In 1982, the Sox added veterans Tom Paciorek, Steve Kemp and Jerry Koosman, and Hemond found Rudy Law, Vance Law, and Salome Barojas. LaMarr Hoyt, who had been up and down, turned into a really good pitcher.

Finally, in 1983, they put the cherry on the sundae by signing Floyd Bannister and bringing up Ron Kittle.

I'll state this as fact: you simply cannot build a team this way in 2018. There are not enough good players in free agency.

I think the Sox need to upgrade at about five positions (the equivalent of Fisk, Luzinski, LeFlore, Almon, and Bernazard) to get to .500. And while they might have the players now (Castillo, Kopech, Jimenez, Burdi, Cordell) the rookies are not going to produce immediately. I think they'll be around 75-77 wins.

In 2019, with Hansen and Robert and Dunning and Cease and Burger and a couple of big time free agents, they should be at or over 85 wins and flirting with a wild card spot.

In 2020, it's on.

Last edited by A. Cavatica; 02-18-2018 at 07:19 PM.
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  #42  
Old 02-18-2018, 11:42 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Kopech in early July and Robert in mid to late August.
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  #43  
Old 02-19-2018, 12:33 PM
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Kopech in early July and Robert in mid to late August.
Robert is no way making his debut this year. Maybe late next season if he tears up the minors from now to then.


Eloy has a good chance to debut this season.
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  #44  
Old 02-19-2018, 07:05 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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Robert is no way making his debut this year. Maybe late next season if he tears up the minors from now to then.


Eloy has a good chance to debut this season.
Agreed. Kopech and Eloy come up in mid-2018. Hansen mid-2019, with perhaps others (such as Robert) perhaps joining him in September 2019.
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  #45  
Old 02-19-2018, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Agreed. Kopech and Eloy come up in mid-2018. Hansen mid-2019, with perhaps others (such as Robert) perhaps joining him in September 2019.
Yup. I kind of see this happening in pairs.

July 2018 - Kopech and Eloy
July 2019 - Hansen and Collins
July 2020 - Dunning/Ceases and Robert

I could also see 2020 featuring Burger, Adolfo, Rutherford.
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