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  #1  
Old 08-15-2019, 05:13 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Default Runs scored

How is this team third from last in MLB in runs scored (497)?

My general impression of the team is that it's had much less trouble scoring runs than last year's team. Granted, I remember a lot of late rallies, which make a stronger impression than early ones. But Moncada and Anderson and McCann have had breakout seasons; we've added Jimenez; we've even gotten a .713 OPS out of Leury. My impression is that our offense can be dangerous when everyone's healthy.

Then I think of Palka, and Alonso, and Reed, and the lackluster debuts of Zavala and Collins, and Rondon and Delmonico and Tilson and Engel and the disappointing season from Yolmer.

And somehow I still think we should be closer to the middle of the pack. Maybe I'm being fooled by the juiced ball?
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  #2  
Old 08-15-2019, 05:28 PM
Senerch23 Senerch23 is offline
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I'd be curious to know where we were at the ASB compared to now. The offense has mostly been dreadful for the last month.

Keep in mind that Moncada, Anderson and Jimenez have been dinged up a lot this year as well and have missed a fair amount of time.
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  #3  
Old 08-15-2019, 06:05 PM
shingo10 shingo10 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
How is this team third from last in MLB in runs scored (497)?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senerch23 View Post
I'd be curious to know where we were at the ASB compared to now. The offense has mostly been dreadful for the last month.

Keep in mind that Moncada, Anderson and Jimenez have been dinged up a lot this year as well and have missed a fair amount of time.
Occam's Razor...they are not a good team. As far as Moncada and Jimenez go it is concerning that they've struggled to make it through a season unharmed. Jimenez was injured last year in the minors as Moncada was up here in Majors. We need them to be healthy when we are finally ready to compete. If that day ever comes.
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  #4  
Old 08-15-2019, 06:22 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Letís just use tonightís lineup for reference.

1) Leury
2) TA
3) Abreu
4) McCann
5) Eloy
6) Castillo
7) Yolmer
8) Engel
9) Cordell

On a contender:

Our #3 hitter would be hitting #5 or #6.
Our cleanup hitter would be hitting #6 or #7.
Our #5 hitter would be hitting #6 or #7.
Our leadoff and #6-9 hitters would all be hitting #9, or more likely, warming the bench.

Think about it from a pitcherís perspective. Why would I even bother giving Abreu or Eloy anything remotely close to the plate? They chase everything anyway, and they wonít be breaking up any double plays when they run the bases. Iíll just attack the leadoff man, (who also swings at everything he sees), be really careful with TA and McCann, try to get Abreu and Eloy out with junk, and just abuse that 5-hitter stretch from Castillo to Leury.
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  #5  
Old 08-15-2019, 07:25 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senerch23 View Post
I'd be curious to know where we were at the ASB compared to now. The offense has mostly been dreadful for the last month.

Keep in mind that Moncada, Anderson and Jimenez have been dinged up a lot this year as well and have missed a fair amount of time.
Especially over that month.
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  #6  
Old 08-15-2019, 10:54 PM
RCWHITESOX RCWHITESOX is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Letís just use tonightís lineup for reference.

1) Leury
2) TA
3) Abreu
4) McCann
5) Eloy
6) Castillo
7) Yolmer
8) Engel
9) Cordell

On a contender:

Our #3 hitter would be hitting #5 or #6.
Our cleanup hitter would be hitting #6 or #7.
Our #5 hitter would be hitting #6 or #7.
Our leadoff and #6-9 hitters would all be hitting #9, or more likely, warming the bench.

Think about it from a pitcherís perspective. Why would I even bother giving Abreu or Eloy anything remotely close to the plate? They chase everything anyway, and they wonít be breaking up any double plays when they run the bases. Iíll just attack the leadoff man, (who also swings at everything he sees), be really careful with TA and McCann, try to get Abreu and Eloy out with junk, and just abuse that 5-hitter stretch from Castillo to Leury.
I hope we donít see the 6-7-8-9 on this team next year! All four belong on someone elseís minor league roster!
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  #7  
Old 08-16-2019, 12:18 AM
TDog TDog is online now
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Some of the offensive stats people appreciate today don't necessarily lead to runs. OPS, for example penalizes hitters for sacrifice flies and infield outs that score runners from third. Abreu drives in runs. In addition to leading the team in home runs, coming into tonight's game he drove in 60 runs without homering (technically 62, but he drove in two runs on a single after passing Anderson on the bases on a ball he hit out play, so that wasn't a home run. (That specific baserunning blunder didn't have an effect on total runs scored because given the chance to hit with he scored tied in the ninth, Anderson homered to win the game).

No one else on this team has 60 RBIs total. Moncada has 59 with 20 home runs. Obviously, his playing 20 fewer games than Abreu has hurt the White Sox overall run total, but he wasn't driving in runs as frequently as Abreu. Jimenez coming into tonight's game had 46 RBIs with 20 home runs. Before driving in a run tonight in the ninth, was hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and only .210 with men on base. As a point of comparison, Abreu was hitting .334 with runners in scoring position and .304 with men on base.

For a team to score a lot of runs, players are going to have to drive in a lot of runs. You need to put runners on base to score a lot of runs, but hitters need to drive in those runners. RBIs don't just happen.
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  #8  
Old 08-16-2019, 12:58 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Some of the offensive stats people appreciate today don't necessarily lead to runs. OPS, for example penalizes hitters for sacrifice flies and infield outs that score runners from third. Abreu drives in runs. In addition to leading the team in home runs, coming into tonight's game he drove in 60 runs without homering (technically 62, but he drove in two runs on a single after passing Anderson on the bases on a ball he hit out play, so that wasn't a home run. (That specific baserunning blunder didn't have an effect on total runs scored because given the chance to hit with he scored tied in the ninth, Anderson homered to win the game).

No one else on this team has 60 RBIs total. Moncada has 59 with 20 home runs. Obviously, his playing 20 fewer games than Abreu has hurt the White Sox overall run total, but he wasn't driving in runs as frequently as Abreu. Jimenez coming into tonight's game had 46 RBIs with 20 home runs. Before driving in a run tonight in the ninth, was hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and only .210 with men on base. As a point of comparison, Abreu was hitting .334 with runners in scoring position and .304 with men on base.

For a team to score a lot of runs, players are going to have to drive in a lot of runs. You need to put runners on base to score a lot of runs, but hitters need to drive in those runners. RBIs don't just happen.
The White Sox are 6th in the league in batting average with RISP and 5th in the league in batting average overall. They are 14th in OPS and 14th in runs scored.

A person could look at that and think that the problem is overvaluing OPS and that the team needs to work on their hitting with RISP, I guess?
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  #9  
Old 08-16-2019, 01:16 AM
DubuqueSox DubuqueSox is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Some of the offensive stats people appreciate today don't necessarily lead to runs. OPS, for example penalizes hitters for sacrifice flies and infield outs that score runners from third. Abreu drives in runs. In addition to leading the team in home runs, coming into tonight's game he drove in 60 runs without homering (technically 62, but he drove in two runs on a single after passing Anderson on the bases on a ball he hit out play, so that wasn't a home run. (That specific baserunning blunder didn't have an effect on total runs scored because given the chance to hit with he scored tied in the ninth, Anderson homered to win the game).

No one else on this team has 60 RBIs total. Moncada has 59 with 20 home runs. Obviously, his playing 20 fewer games than Abreu has hurt the White Sox overall run total, but he wasn't driving in runs as frequently as Abreu. Jimenez coming into tonight's game had 46 RBIs with 20 home runs. Before driving in a run tonight in the ninth, was hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and only .210 with men on base. As a point of comparison, Abreu was hitting .334 with runners in scoring position and .304 with men on base.

For a team to score a lot of runs, players are going to have to drive in a lot of runs. You need to put runners on base to score a lot of runs, but hitters need to drive in those runners. RBIs don't just happen.
Excellent point about the importance of driving in runs. Abreu is one of the best in the league at this, despite not having players with overly high OBP batting in front of him.

Several times this year I've witnessed Abreu driving in a runner on third on a ground ball with the infield playing back. It's a simple task, but too many players on our team are unable to avoid striking out in such situations.
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  #10  
Old 08-16-2019, 01:16 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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White Sox DH's this year are hitting .178/.264/.301. And a lot of that "production" was coming from the cleanup spot for the first half of the season.
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  #11  
Old 08-16-2019, 01:23 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Some of the offensive stats people appreciate today don't necessarily lead to runs. OPS, for example penalizes hitters for sacrifice flies and infield outs that score runners from third. Abreu drives in runs. In addition to leading the team in home runs, coming into tonight's game he drove in 60 runs without homering (technically 62, but he drove in two runs on a single after passing Anderson on the bases on a ball he hit out play, so that wasn't a home run. (That specific baserunning blunder didn't have an effect on total runs scored because given the chance to hit with he scored tied in the ninth, Anderson homered to win the game).

No one else on this team has 60 RBIs total. Moncada has 59 with 20 home runs. Obviously, his playing 20 fewer games than Abreu has hurt the White Sox overall run total, but he wasn't driving in runs as frequently as Abreu. Jimenez coming into tonight's game had 46 RBIs with 20 home runs. Before driving in a run tonight in the ninth, was hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and only .210 with men on base. As a point of comparison, Abreu was hitting .334 with runners in scoring position and .304 with men on base.

For a team to score a lot of runs, players are going to have to drive in a lot of runs. You need to put runners on base to score a lot of runs, but hitters need to drive in those runners. RBIs don't just happen.
Actually, OPS correlates very strongly with runs scored. I just looked at every season by every team since 2000, and the correlation between team OPS and runs scored is .955. The correlation between team AVG and runs scored is .809.

I don't have stats on BA with RISP.
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  #12  
Old 08-16-2019, 01:40 AM
DubuqueSox DubuqueSox is offline
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Originally Posted by RCWHITESOX View Post
I hope we donít see the 6-7-8-9 on this team next year! All four belong on someone elseís minor league roster!
It's amazing that we won the season series against the Astros and the Yankees. I'm not sure if we have a position player who would start for Houston. Also, would Giolito even make Houston's playoff rotation? Colome and Bummer would see action in Houston's bullpen, at least.

That might provide an answer for why we rank so low in the runs scored category. We don't have much talent right now. We have a lot of catching up to do with Houston and other top teams. Do we really have enough in the minors and from possible free agents to close the gap in the next few years?
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  #13  
Old 08-16-2019, 03:07 AM
TDog TDog is online now
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Actually, OPS correlates very strongly with runs scored. I just looked at every season by every team since 2000, and the correlation between team OPS and runs scored is .955. The correlation between team AVG and runs scored is .809.

I don't have stats on BA with RISP.

OPS is vague enough to be meaningless. It may correlate with run scored, but it doesn't mean that a strong OPS will lead to runs scored. What you need to do to score runs and what you need to do to increase your OPS can be two different things. OPS treats a bases-empty double the same as it would a bases-clearing double, whether the runner comes around to score or not. OPS treats a two-run single with two outs and runners on second and third only marginally better than an intentional walk with two outs and runners on second and third ahead of a strikeout.

Runs occasionally score on defensive mistakes but most have to be driven in. RBIs are not the random thing that some would have us believe. Some players are clearly better at it than others. The difference between Abreu (who isn't even having a great season) and Jimenez is not simply that Abreu has more men on base to drive in.
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  #14  
Old 08-16-2019, 07:11 AM
kobo kobo is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Some of the offensive stats people appreciate today don't necessarily lead to runs. OPS, for example penalizes hitters for sacrifice flies and infield outs that score runners from third. Abreu drives in runs. In addition to leading the team in home runs, coming into tonight's game he drove in 60 runs without homering (technically 62, but he drove in two runs on a single after passing Anderson on the bases on a ball he hit out play, so that wasn't a home run. (That specific baserunning blunder didn't have an effect on total runs scored because given the chance to hit with he scored tied in the ninth, Anderson homered to win the game).

No one else on this team has 60 RBIs total. Moncada has 59 with 20 home runs. Obviously, his playing 20 fewer games than Abreu has hurt the White Sox overall run total, but he wasn't driving in runs as frequently as Abreu. Jimenez coming into tonight's game had 46 RBIs with 20 home runs. Before driving in a run tonight in the ninth, was hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and only .210 with men on base. As a point of comparison, Abreu was hitting .334 with runners in scoring position and .304 with men on base.

For a team to score a lot of runs, players are going to have to drive in a lot of runs. You need to put runners on base to score a lot of runs, but hitters need to drive in those runners. RBIs don't just happen.
It really bothers me when people say stuff like this because it shows ignorance to what the stat is. OPS is nothing more than the combination of slugging percentage and on base percentage. It's not penalizing anyone.



This team needs to walk more so there are guys on base to drive in. Part of the issue with runs scored this year is being the absolute worst when it comes to walks from the leadoff position. They are dead last in the league in that category and by a big margin. The inability to draw walks and get on base is what is really hurting this team.
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Old 08-16-2019, 07:54 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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It really bothers me when people say stuff like this because it shows ignorance to what the stat is. OPS is nothing more than the combination of slugging percentage and on base percentage. It's not penalizing anyone.



This team needs to walk more so there are guys on base to drive in. Part of the issue with runs scored this year is being the absolute worst when it comes to walks from the leadoff position. They are dead last in the league in that category and by a big margin. The inability to draw walks and get on base is what is really hurting this team.
Ok, OPS doesnít ďpenalizeĒ hitters for SFs and ground out RBI, but it does not credit the hitter in those situations, either, because it (erroneously) treats SFs and ground out RBI as being the same as any other out. As TDog says, some players are just simply better in those situations than others, despite the insistence of some that driving in runs is a random happenstance.
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