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  #121  
Old 07-10-2019, 12:59 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Except he pulled the ball equal to last year for most of the season, and just had a couple of weeks that are skewing the numbers (as his BABIP shows, it's not sustainable). Over the last few weeks where more balls were hit to the left side, other alarming figures increased. 25% of his hit balls where infield flyouts. Which is not normal for him. But that's the danger of small samples. I don't think that's any more indicative of where Madrigal is than his 48% pull rate for the last couple of weeks, or his .400 BABIP in that span.
How is ~36% in A ball this year equal to ~30% in A ball last year? That's a 20% increase. And you wanted him to start trying to pull the ball more. Everything from the start of this season to now shows he has done so.

He is trying to pull the ball more, so he is all of a sudden going to start hitting more HRs and doubles immediately? All you and your article said was to start pulling the ball, and he has. You can take parts of the "last few weeks" (a month) and call it "alarming" to fit your narrative, but not include any of the data that doesn't it with it. Cool.

My final word on this topic.
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  #122  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:02 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
How is ~36% in A ball this year equal to ~30% in A ball last year? That's a 20% increase. And you wanted him to start trying to pull the ball more. Everything from the start of this season to now shows he has done so.

He is trying to pull the ball more, so he is all of a sudden going to start hitting more HRs and doubles immediately? All you and your article said was to start pulling the ball, and he has. You can take parts of the "last few weeks" (a month) and call it "alarming" to fit your narrative, but not include any of the data that doesn't it with it. Cool.

My final word on this topic.
He was 33% last year in Winston Salem and 36% this year at that level. He's been roughly the same, other than the last few weeks at Birmingham. I'm not going to overlook the body of evidence because he got hot for a spell after a promotion. There's work he needs to do.
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  #123  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:19 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
He was 33% last year in Winston Salem and 36% this year at that level. He's been roughly the same, other than the last few weeks at Birmingham. I'm not going to overlook the body of evidence because he got hot for a spell after a promotion. There's work he needs to do.
Of course he still has work to do. Is that your main point that you're trying to make? I don't think anybody thinks he is a finished product. One or two people suggested promoting him now to AAA but I would agree with you that this is too soon, he's only got just over 100 PA at AA and there's no need to rush him. But I also wouldn't call his performance over the past month or two "alarming" in any way.

One thing about Madrigal that the numbers don't take into account is that he seems to have all the intangibles you could ever want in a player. Coaches/teammates just gush about how "baseball smart" he is. That's not easy to quantify, but it could be part of the reason why he has brought winning with him wherever he goes (including recently to Birmingham, who was struggling before his arrival and are now leading the league).
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  #124  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:28 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Of course he still has work to do. Is that your main point that you're trying to make? I don't think anybody thinks he is a finished product. One or two people suggested promoting him now to AAA but I would agree with you that this is too soon, he's only got just over 100 PA at AA and there's no need to rush him. But I also wouldn't call his performance over the past month or two "alarming" in any way.

One thing about Madrigal that the numbers don't take into account is that he seems to have all the intangibles you could ever want in a player. Coaches/teammates just gush about how "baseball smart" he is. That's not easy to quantify, but it could be part of the reason why he has brought winning with him wherever he goes (including recently to Birmingham, who was struggling before his arrival and are now leading the league).
Yep- sometimes 1+1=3, adding him to an infield of Moncada/Anderson/Abreu/Vaughn (along with an outfield that will include Eloy & Robert)- and I'll sacrifice a little Xbase power for defense, speed, intangibles, etc.
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Last edited by TomBradley72; 07-10-2019 at 05:05 PM.
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  #125  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:52 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Of course he still has work to do. Is that your main point that you're trying to make? I don't think anybody thinks he is a finished product. One or two people suggested promoting him now to AAA but I would agree with you that this is too soon, he's only got just over 100 PA at AA and there's no need to rush him. But I also wouldn't call his performance over the past month or two "alarming" in any way.

One thing about Madrigal that the numbers don't take into account is that he seems to have all the intangibles you could ever want in a player. Coaches/teammates just gush about how "baseball smart" he is. That's not easy to quantify, but it could be part of the reason why he has brought winning with him wherever he goes (including recently to Birmingham, who was struggling before his arrival and are now leading the league).

I said alarming ironically in reference to trends over a very small sample to make the point that using that sample to prove he's ready to move up is not a good argument to make.
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  #126  
Old 07-10-2019, 02:36 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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I'd LOVE for that to be the case...but we really shouldn't be putting that kind of expectation on the kid. Also...Altuve got BUFF.
If Madrigal had a better work ethic he would be hitting the weight room and getting BUFF himself.
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  #127  
Old 07-10-2019, 03:02 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
He was 33% last year in Winston Salem and 36% this year at that level. He's been roughly the same, other than the last few weeks at Birmingham. I'm not going to overlook the body of evidence because he got hot for a spell after a promotion. There's work he needs to do.
I see, you don't like the over all data set, so scream "outlier", dismiss a portion of the data and then claim victory.

Shoota is that you?
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  #128  
Old 07-10-2019, 04:12 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I see, you don't like the over all data set, so scream "outlier", dismiss a portion of the data and then claim victory.

Shoota is that you?
Agreed.

Also ignored is Madrigal’s wrist injury last year, which sapped his ability to generate the wrist snap necessary to pull the ball. With a healthy wrist, we SHOULD see Madrigal pull more balls, and that’s EXACTLY what he’s doing, and we know WHY it is happening, and it was COMPLETELY PREDICTABLE. It’s not a “small sample” or “recency bias” to dismiss.

Also ignored is the fact that the league average .300 BABIP is just that, an average of all at bats by all hitters. Some hitters naturally will have lower BABIPs because they are slow runners or because they are probably highly predictable and are easy to shift on, etc.

On the other hand, some hitters who hit lots of line drives with lots of exit velocity (like Moncada) will naturally tend to have higher BABIPs, as will hitters with extremely precise bat control (like Madrigal) who are able to slap the ball where fielders are not.
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  #129  
Old 07-10-2019, 04:56 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I see, you don't like the over all data set, so scream "outlier", dismiss a portion of the data and then claim victory.

Shoota is that you?
I'm dismissing a small sample based on a .400 BABIP because I expect it to regress to the mean, yes. If he continues to have a .400 BABIP over the next few months, I'll give the argument more credence. But I don't see any reason right now to assume the last few weeks are a huge swing in approach.
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  #130  
Old 07-10-2019, 05:00 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Agreed.

Also ignored is Madrigal’s wrist injury last year, which sapped his ability to generate the wrist snap necessary to pull the ball. With a healthy wrist, we SHOULD see Madrigal pull more balls, and that’s EXACTLY what he’s doing, and we know WHY it is happening, and it was COMPLETELY PREDICTABLE. It’s not a “small sample” or “recency bias” to dismiss.

Also ignored is the fact that the league average .300 BABIP is just that, an average of all at bats by all hitters. Some hitters naturally will have lower BABIPs because they are slow runners or because they are probably highly predictable and are easy to shift on, etc.

On the other hand, some hitters who hit lots of line drives with lots of exit velocity (like Moncada) will naturally tend to have higher BABIPs, as will hitters with extremely precise bat control (like Madrigal) who are able to slap the ball where fielders are not.
Like I said, if he has a .400 or so BABIP over the next few months, then perhaps it is a real change. But if I'm the White Sox, I'm not rushing to judgement on a kid that two weeks ago hadn't turned that corner yet.
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  #131  
Old 07-10-2019, 05:21 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Like I said, if he has a .400 or so BABIP over the next few months, then perhaps it is a real change. But if I'm the White Sox, I'm not rushing to judgement on a kid that two weeks ago hadn't turned that corner yet.
Which is a perfectly valid position to hold, and so far, I think most of us in this thread agree with it.
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  #132  
Old 07-11-2019, 01:00 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Which is a perfectly valid position to hold, and so far, I think most of us in this thread agree with it.

I'm sure most do. This started with people being upset Madrigal wasn't getting promoted with Luis Robert and getting fast tracked to the big leagues. But Nick's not as advanced in his development at Robert is. Robert is basically ready now.
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  #133  
Old 07-11-2019, 01:35 PM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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I'm sure most do. This started with people being upset Madrigal wasn't getting promoted with Luis Robert and getting fast tracked to the big leagues. But Nick's not as advanced in his development at Robert is. Robert is basically ready now.
Nice strawman. I don't think anyone could reasonably be described as "upset."

FTR - I don't think they need to rush him either. .
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  #134  
Old 07-11-2019, 02:59 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
Nice strawman. I don't think anyone could reasonably be described as "upset."

FTR - I don't think they need to rush him either. .


This post started the debate on whether Mardigal was ready or not:


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Originally Posted by shes View Post
I wonder why Madrigal didn't get promoted along with Robert. Hitting near .400 with 2 Ks in 108 PAs in AA and a near 10% walk rate. What else does he have to learn down there, really? If the future lineup is Madrigal-Moncada-Abreu/Vaughn-Eloy-Robert his lack of power is meaningless. The speed and ability to get on base at a .350+ clip in front of 5 guys that can combine for 140+ HRs a year is all that matters. With 2020 looking like the first year of playoff contention, might as well keep promoting aggressively. Quite frankly he's more ML ready right now than Robert, all things considered. Let him see some better breaking balls in AAA to finish out the season.

I'm just happy we're actually talking about Nick in this thread, instead of Daniel Palka.
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  #135  
Old 07-12-2019, 11:22 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
"He's small and doesn't have a lot of raw strength, but his ability to barrel the ball and his plus speed should produce a healthy amount of doubles and maybe 12-15 homers per season." -MLB Pipeline

"He was the best draft-eligible hitter we saw last year, a complete player with few, if any, flaws." -Fangraphs (also gave him a 45 game power FV--for reference, their grade on Adam Engel's game power is 30. We're not talking about Scott Podsednik here.)

"It’s not a metal bat swing, and there’s present 4 raw power here despite his frame. He’ll sting baseballs in the gap, and you’d think all that raw would get into play eventually." -Baseball Prospectus

He's not going to hit for middle of the order power. That's fine. He's not Juan Pierre, either. Let's maybe step off the ledge for a second? He's probably not the second coming of Dustin Pedroia, which is also fine. Let's also consider that we've spent most of the last few years watching Yolmer Sanchez, Leury Garcia, and pre-breakout Tim Anderson up the middle, so it's really beyond me why anybody should be freaking out about a guy who might *only* hit .300 with 30 steals and more walks than strikeouts. He's checking 90% of the boxes so far, I'll start worrying when he's not producing in the Major Leagues.
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One thing that might give some confidence in Madrigal's future, maybe, is that BP has him as the #12 midseason prospect. Madrigal's game is not what the analytics typically prefer, but yet there he is.
Agreed. Of course he'll never be a "complete" player because he isn't a power hitter. But there's a reason why fans and some analysts are high on him. The things he does well, he has the potential to do at an elite level. He likely still has some developmental work to do in AA and I'm okay with not rushing up to AAA now, but I think he's going to be a fan favorite on the South Side in the not to distant future....and for good reason.


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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post

One thing about Madrigal that the numbers don't take into account is that he seems to have all the intangibles you could ever want in a player. Coaches/teammates just gush about how "baseball smart" he is. That's not easy to quantify, but it could be part of the reason why he has brought winning with him wherever he goes (including recently to Birmingham, who was struggling before his arrival and are now leading the league).
This. I haven't checked his stats every single night. But it sure seems like every time I do check a box score for the Barons, he either gets on base or drives in a run somehow.

I believe his BB rate is up and his K rate is still exceptionally low. He hasn't had many XBHs at AA yet. Maybe that's something he needs to improve on. He was trending upward in XBHs at W-S earlier, so I'm confident that it's something he can improve on.
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