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  #1  
Old 08-17-2018, 12:14 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Default Assessing the 40-man roster situation

SoxMachine's Jim Margulus published an excellent analysis today on the Sox 40-man roster situation, in preparation for the upcoming September callups and the eventual Rule V draft.


In short, Margalus recommends/projects:


Quote:
The Sox could have eight or so spots to play with after adding Kopech, Cease and Zavala, so they could theoretically also accommodate Stephens, Medeiros, Frare, Burr and Ruiz. There might be some redundancy, as both Medeiros and Frare would give the 40-man six left-handed relievers, but somebody like Luis Avilan can be traded for the second straight offseason.
Who would you add, beyond the obvious no-brainers like Kopech, Cease, and Zavala? Who would you remove from the current 40-man roster? Who would you leave unprotected? (Keep in mind that any team claiming a player in the Rule 5 draft must keep that player on their 25-man roster for the entire next season, or risk losing him back to the team from which he was drafted.)
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  #2  
Old 08-17-2018, 02:15 PM
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James Fegan goes through the exact same exercise today in The Athletic.
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  #3  
Old 08-17-2018, 09:40 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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At this point, are we absolutely certain that James Shields wonít be back? 200 ďmehĒ innings actually may be worth more than the $14 million Shields would cost.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
At this point, are we absolutely certain that James Shields won’t be back? 200 “meh” innings actually may be worth more than the $14 million Shields would cost.
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
Personally I was a big fan of Fulmer's, but I thought the boat had more or less sailed on them being starters? Danish has been coming out of the pen all season, right? I'd love if it either of them lived up to their draft slot and became decent enough starters, though.

I'm a little baffled by Covey. He really seemed to have figured something out and was throwing that 2 seamer at 95-96 pretty consistently, then it just disappeared. If they think he can get that back I don't have a problem running him out there at all. You can always move him to the pen and hope the stuff plays up.

Like I said though, if they do bring back Shields, it'll almost certainly be on a new contract worth little enough that if someone else is ready to start and they can't trade him he can probably be cut with little consequence. Wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.
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Old 10-27-2018, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
Or the Sox can deal Fulmer for someone else's "mistake" and hope a change of scenery does both players good...or...........the Sox can actually go out and sign two decent starting pitchers and say "farewell and goodbye" to both Fulmer and Covey. Two guys who to be kind, have shown very, very little in their efforts to make the big leagues.

For the sake of the Sox and "progress" in the rebuild in 2019 they damn well need to do something with the rotation and the bullpen.
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  #8  
Old 08-18-2018, 08:24 AM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
I don't think you will net him with a $2 million contract, but we do have the opportunity to sign a FA or two at a decent rate, get them into the org., and still get someone like Shields for $5-$7 mil.

If he can get close to 200 or more innings and an ERA below 4.50 (currently at 4.39), he'll get a decent 1-year deal. Perhaps he gets
a vesting player option for a second year. He'll be 37, really closer to 38 at this point next year, so it also wouldn't surprise me if he retires this year or next. Thanks to his deal with the Padres, he'll have made over $110 million for his career.
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Old 08-24-2018, 07:59 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Avilan, of course, is now off the 40-man. Burr is now on the 40-man roster.

Paulino(acquired for Avilan) is Rule 5 eligible this winter, but I think there is little risk of losing him if the Sox keep him off the 40-man.
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  #10  
Old 10-27-2018, 10:06 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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The 40-man roster now sits at 36 after the departure of Kevan Smith and outrighting Farquhar, LaMarre, and Schahill.

Since the Margulus article was written (see first post of this thread), Frare, Burr, and Ruiz have been added to the 40-man. So was Kopech, but of course his 40-man spot is now freed up because he's on the 60-day DL.
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  #11  
Old 10-27-2018, 05:31 PM
jcw218 jcw218 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
The 40-man roster now sits at 36 after the departure of Kevan Smith and outrighting Farquhar, LaMarre, and Schahill.

Since the Margulus article was written (see first post of this thread), Frare, Burr, and Ruiz have been added to the 40-man. So was Kopech, but of course his 40-man spot is now freed up because he's on the 60-day DL.
Actually, Kopech does count against the 40 man roster in the off season.
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Old 10-28-2018, 08:58 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Covey absolutely should be protected...yes he had a dip but he also pitched pretty well at the end of the season. He's an improved player in an org not exactly replete with major league pitching.
I think they 2nd tier pitching market is better than last year's, if they are interested in one. Please, no Shields. That's just pointless.
I hate to keep harping on this, but it keeps repeating itself: They Sox had market leverage (ability to take on overpaid players that they could use to flip in July) and used it wisely when moving Peter for Soria and Avilan....that was a nifty move and gave them 1 and possibly 2 real trade assets for July.
Then July comes and they move the 1 with trade value for...... a struggling AA rule-5 eligible pitcher. Back to where they started.
Not that there is a real roster crunch or that Madeiros really needs to be protected...just loss of an opportunity.
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Old 10-28-2018, 09:08 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
The Sox had market leverage (ability to take on overpaid players that they could use to flip in July) and used it wisely when moving Peter for Soria and Avilan....that was a nifty move and gave them 1 and possibly 2 real trade assets for July.
Then July comes and they move the 1 with trade value for...... a struggling AA rule-5 eligible pitcher. Back to where they started.
Not that there is a real roster crunch or that Madeiros really needs to be protected...just loss of an opportunity.
I would have liked for the Sox to package their assets in July for a better return, but it takes a willing partner.
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Old 10-28-2018, 12:08 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo
I would have liked for the Sox to package their assets in July for a better return, but it takes a willing partner.
Even in that case, you probably donít get anyone better than Medeiros. You just get more pieces in addition to Medeiros.

I donít know what other assets the White Sox really had. Jose Abreu slumping at the worst possible time was a major story line of the 2018 season. Avi Garcia was hurt and bad. The relievers who did get moved were not moved until August and cleared waivers despite their paltry salaries.
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  #15  
Old 10-28-2018, 12:13 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Even in that case, you probably donít get anyone better than Medeiros. You just get more pieces in addition to Medeiros.
Youíre probably right. My desire that they have gotten more does not imply criticism; they canít make a bigger/better deal if there isnít a willing trade partner.
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