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  #31  
Old 04-16-2017, 05:12 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26 View Post
I would love to see the reaction here if Hahn would have traded Quintana for Glasnow and Co.
People have made up their minds how they are going to feel and will now just use whatever they pick and choose to support their feelings. This site is becoming joyless to read.
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  #32  
Old 04-16-2017, 05:25 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26
I would love to see the reaction here if Hahn would have traded Quintana for Glasnow and Co.
You would have to define "Co." for me. Is Austin Meadows in there? Is Josh Bell in there?
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  #33  
Old 04-16-2017, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
You would have to define "Co." for me. Is Austin Meadows in there? Is Josh Bell in there?
No, Meadows isn't in there. Meadows was never part of any rumored package for Q.

Most of what I read over the offseason was some combination of Glasnow (27.00 ERA), Bell (batting .156), and lower level prospects.

Point is, Quintana's sample size is the same as these guys who were offered in potential trade packages that Hahn turned down. In the same sample size, they're doing worse than Q.
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  #34  
Old 04-16-2017, 06:04 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26
Point is, Quintana's sample size is the same as these guys who were offered in potential trade packages that Hahn turned down. In the same sample size, they're doing worse than Q.
I think both those guys still would be in the minors if they were in our organization, but you certainly would be correct in chiding someone who freaked out if those guys had a slow start down on the farm.
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  #35  
Old 04-17-2017, 09:13 AM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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Sale was a premium player and the ask was reasonable, but Hahn messed up thinking other GMs would give up for Q what Washington gave up for Eaton.

Just because one GM is stupid, that doesn't mean others are.

When you have three teams on the hook to bid against each other is not the time to ask for unreasonable returns, it's time to work towards the best deal and make it.
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  #36  
Old 04-17-2017, 11:24 AM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Originally Posted by shingo10 View Post
Quintana is one of my all-time least favorite Sox players. And I can't wait until July when he gets shipped somewhere else.

That said, no panic here. If he's healthy he'll figure it out enough to carry his value.

Gotta find the offense and win the series tomorrow.
Huh? What has he ever done other than pitch his butt off for the Sox? Seems like a good clubhouse guy too.
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  #37  
Old 04-17-2017, 12:28 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
Sale was a premium player and the ask was reasonable, but Hahn messed up thinking other GMs would give up for Q what Washington gave up for Eaton.

Just because one GM is stupid, that doesn't mean others are.

When you have three teams on the hook to bid against each other is not the time to ask for unreasonable returns, it's time to work towards the best deal and make it.
You have no idea what other teams were offering for Q, seems silly to make an assumption that Hahn's request was "unreasonable".
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  #38  
Old 04-17-2017, 01:13 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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I look at it a little differently- by not settling for whatever he could have received in the off season- Hahn may now (fingers crossed) have more to work with now to achieve the goal of another big injection to talent into the farm system.

The offseason/spring training represents the high water mark of other team's confidence in their starting pitching- then as the season goes along- they get hit with injuries, prospects don't work out, veterans who "came into spring training in great shape" don't really perform, etc.- that confidence deteriorates, reality sets in- and then Hahn can get the return he's looking for.

He now might have a few chips to throw into a Quintana trade that could be the tipping point for the other GM to pull the trigger- by June/July, if a contender can also pick up Shields or Holland or Jones or Swarzak for the late season push (assuming they continue to pitch well)- addressing 2 (or 3) holes in their pitching staff- that might support justifying giving up multiple quality prospects.

Can't have Quintana continuing his poor starts- but as long as he returns to his previous consistency and performance levels- I think Hahn is in a really good position- and the calculated risk of not pulling the trigger in the offseason will pay off.
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  #39  
Old 04-17-2017, 01:56 PM
DeadMoney DeadMoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Maybe he has no trade value.

Seriously, he hasn't been pitching well this season. It could be because he mentally can't handle being the ace or de facto ace of the staff. Especially on opening day, when Verlander didn't totally shut down the Sox and the rain out giving him even more time to think about it, that's a real possibility. He was a better pitcher when Chris Sale was the ace.

Another possibility is that he isn't dealing well with talk of being traded. He allegedly enjoys pitching for the Sox and signed a long-term deal with the Sox.

One thing that sometimes comes up in discussing tough-luck pitchers, pitchers who pitch well enough to win but don't win many games, is the question of being mentally capable of winning, although fans who only look at stats in a vacuum dismiss such concepts as ridiculous.

Still, it's possible that teams had a reason not to offer the boatload of prospects for Quintana that the team and fans would expect based upon his statistical success. His second start perhaps was an example of a pitchers' duel where he struggled to keep the Sox in the game rather than a tough-luck game where he pitched brilliantly and didn't get enough run support. Some teams might be seriously questioning if Quintana would pitch well enough for them as he has historically for the Sox, well enough to give up prospects they actually care about.

If you're concerned that he doesn't have the mental ability to win or pitch well for you, his contract ceases to be a selling point. Holland would be cheaper and in some ways could be more attractive in the short term because he would be so much cheaper and appears more motivated to win while requiring less of a commitment.

I have always believed the Sox wouldn't get enough in trade for Quintana to match his current and future to the team. In any case, his value isn't increasing. He hasn't been a very good pitcher this season, and his problems don't appear to be physical. If they were, he wouldn't have stayed on the mound after pitching the Sox out of the game before their cleanup hitter got his first chance to hit.
Quintana is a good pitcher and I'm not trying to undersell that, but I've always had questions about Quintana that I couldn't quite articulate that you actually laid out perfectly here.

The lack of run support/hard luck thing with Quintana has always bugged me. Right or wrong, I've always felt like he might be doing some of it to himself - where he is quick to give runs back to the other team when he does get run support.

The following stats are Run Support (by Game). Theoretically, the stats should be pretty similar whether or not your team scores 0 runs or 10 runs; a pitcher really shouldn't be affected by the amount of runs his team scores.

I show Quintana's stats below and then I picked out some of the best lefties in baseball, as well as Derek Holland (just for the hell of it). Quintana is really the only one of the 6 who's stats get significantly worse as his team scores more runs (Hamels ERA is worse, but his WHIP and SO/W numbers are still pretty similar).

I'm not sure what any of this means, but while Quintana is a good pitcher, there could be some things that may be holding other teams back from giving up a king's ransom for him.

Quintana -
0-2 runs scored - 3.31 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 3.49 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 3.41 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.34 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.93 ERA, 1.432 WHIP, 2.45 SO/W

Sale -
0-2 runs scored - 3.15 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 4.97 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.89 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 5.04 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 2.97 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 5.43 SO/W

Kershaw -
0-2 runs scored - 2.39 ERA, 1.070 WHIP, 3.74 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.36 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 4.26 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 2.37 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 4.23 SO/W

Bumgarner -
0-2 runs scored - 3.25 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 3.80 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.77 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 4.55 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.00 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 4.74 SO/W

Hamels -
0-2 runs scored - 3.30 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 3.37 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 3.08 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 3.60 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.64 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 3.69 SO/W

Holland -
0-2 runs scored - 4.43 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 2.49 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 4.30 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 2.41 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 4.28 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 2.76 SO/W
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  #40  
Old 04-17-2017, 02:47 PM
shingo10 shingo10 is offline
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Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
Huh? What has he ever done other than pitch his butt off for the Sox? Seems like a good clubhouse guy too.
Just my personal opinion but to me he serves as the face of an awful time period of Sox baseball. I just flat out don't enjoy watching him pitch. No denying his ability as a 2-3 starter though. Hope that correlates into a future stud or two.
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  #41  
Old 04-17-2017, 03:35 PM
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He's gonna get moved and the return will be beautiful. Be patient.
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  #42  
Old 04-17-2017, 03:39 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by DeadMoney View Post
Quintana is a good pitcher and I'm not trying to undersell that, but I've always had questions about Quintana that I couldn't quite articulate that you actually laid out perfectly here.

The lack of run support/hard luck thing with Quintana has always bugged me. Right or wrong, I've always felt like he might be doing some of it to himself - where he is quick to give runs back to the other team when he does get run support.

The following stats are Run Support (by Game). Theoretically, the stats should be pretty similar whether or not your team scores 0 runs or 10 runs; a pitcher really shouldn't be affected by the amount of runs his team scores.

I show Quintana's stats below and then I picked out some of the best lefties in baseball, as well as Derek Holland (just for the hell of it). Quintana is really the only one of the 6 who's stats get significantly worse as his team scores more runs (Hamels ERA is worse, but his WHIP and SO/W numbers are still pretty similar).

I'm not sure what any of this means, but while Quintana is a good pitcher, there could be some things that may be holding other teams back from giving up a king's ransom for him.

Quintana -
0-2 runs scored - 3.31 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 3.49 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 3.41 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.34 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.93 ERA, 1.432 WHIP, 2.45 SO/W

Sale -
0-2 runs scored - 3.15 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 4.97 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.89 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 5.04 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 2.97 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 5.43 SO/W

Kershaw -
0-2 runs scored - 2.39 ERA, 1.070 WHIP, 3.74 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.36 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 4.26 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 2.37 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 4.23 SO/W

Bumgarner -
0-2 runs scored - 3.25 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 3.80 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 2.77 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 4.55 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.00 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 4.74 SO/W

Hamels -
0-2 runs scored - 3.30 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 3.37 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 3.08 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 3.60 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 3.64 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 3.69 SO/W

Holland -
0-2 runs scored - 4.43 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 2.49 SO/W
3-5 runs scored - 4.30 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 2.41 SO/W
6+ runs scored - 4.28 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 2.76 SO/W
Interesting numbers but you also have to look at the game context a little deeper.

Here's what I mean from a historical sense, Ferguson Jenkins and LaMarr Hoyt were two pitchers who come to mind. This is in reference to the stat about Q having a worse ERA when they score 6+ runs for him..

Jenkins and Hoyt were two pitchers who if they had a big lead would basically throw the ball over the plate and say "hit it..." They were more concerned with outs at that point and would give up a home run or two. But when the game was close, they weren't going to give you much if anything.

I just think the score and inning also plays a part in how a pitcher pitches in that situation. If I'm up 7-1 in the 8th and I give up three runs, basically who cares as long as I wind up winning the game. I'm looking for outs at that point...score kind of doesn't matter and that can inflate an ERA.

Lip

Last edited by Lip Man 1; 04-18-2017 at 06:00 PM.
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  #43  
Old 04-18-2017, 05:10 PM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Originally Posted by shingo10 View Post
Just my personal opinion but to me he serves as the face of an awful time period of Sox baseball. I just flat out don't enjoy watching him pitch. No denying his ability as a 2-3 starter though. Hope that correlates into a future stud or two.
Just to inquire, if we had Mike Trout right now and the same results, would you dislike him as the "face of an awful time period."
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  #44  
Old 04-18-2017, 05:18 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
He's gonna get moved and the return will be beautiful. Be patient.
It'll be a tremendous return. The best you ever saw, believe me.
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  #45  
Old 04-18-2017, 07:46 PM
shingo10 shingo10 is offline
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Originally Posted by soxfanreggie View Post
Just to inquire, if we had Mike Trout right now and the same results, would you dislike him as the "face of an awful time period."
No, it has to do with my personal enjoyment of watching him pitch. I just don't like how he works. Its a tough watch and honestly the outcome usually isn't good for our club. Ergo, it reminds me of the last several seasons.
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