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  #481  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:00 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
If you listen to the podcast Hamels was just on with Chuck Garfien when they breakdown last year for him, you would not say he's "entirely ineffective". Even only looking at his ERA for the whole year at 3.81 dismisses your claim.

His ERA by inning last year.


1st - 2.67

2nd - 2.08

3rd - 7.92

4th - 5.16


Other relevant stats. He only pitched 5 innings in 15 of 27 starts!


He only made it through 6 innings in 8 starts. 8.


A big reason for this? He isn't effective the second time through the order.
  #482  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:08 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Steamer projects Hamels at 164 innings with a 4.52 ERA and 2.1 WAR.

That's fine for a 4th starter, if that is what he would be.
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  #483  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:11 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
His ERA by inning last year.


1st - 2.67

2nd - 2.08

3rd - 7.92

4th - 5.16


Other relevant stats. He only pitched 5 innings in 15 of 27 starts!


He only made it through 6 innings in 8 starts. 8.


A big reason for this? He isn't effective the second time through the order.
That doesn't illustrate "entirely ineffective". Actually describes a really good back end pitcher.
  #484  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:19 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
That doesn't illustrate "entirely ineffective". Actually describes a really good back end pitcher.


An 8 ERA in the 3rd inning is exactly what you're looking for in a starter pitcher? I don't think I could disagree more.


We need more than anything someone who will throw innings and keep us in games. A guy that gets through the second and then explodes every inning you have to keep him being seen doesn't do that.


His ERA last year was a testament to Joe Maddon's ability to not give a **** what Theo thinks. Because another manager would have made him go 5 more often. And then Hamels wouldn't look like an option. He'd look done.
  #485  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:37 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
An 8 ERA in the 3rd inning is exactly what you're looking for in a starter pitcher? I don't think I could disagree more.


We need more than anything someone who will throw innings and keep us in games. A guy that gets through the second and then explodes every inning you have to keep him being seen doesn't do that.


His ERA last year was a testament to Joe Maddon's ability to not give a **** what Theo thinks. Because another manager would have made him go 5 more often. And then Hamels wouldn't look like an option. He'd look done.
Sorry I read that as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th time through the batting order ERAs.

That said, you didn't post that in the 5th inning his ERA is 1.96, 6th is 4.26, and 7th is 0.00.... doesn't add up to your theory he can't get through the order 3 times.

His bad ERA in the 3rd inning in 2019 seems like possibly an outlier or just bad luck as it isn't too late in the game, sometimes you are facing a batter for the first time, and his 3rd inning ERA the year prior was 2.03.
  #486  
Old 12-03-2019, 05:40 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Sorry I read that as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th time through the batting order ERAs.

That said, you didn't post that in the 5th inning his ERA is 1.96, 6th is 4.26, and 7th is 0.00.... doesn't add up to your theory he can't get through the order 3 times.

His bad ERA in the 3rd inning in 2019 seems like possibly an outlier or just bad luck as it isn't too late in the game, sometimes you are facing a batter for the first time, and his 3rd inning ERA the year prior was 2.03.

I didn't post later innings because of sample size. He never gets that far. It's not significant. What happens when he faces hitters the second time through prevented him from pitching that deep most of his starts.
  #487  
Old 12-03-2019, 05:42 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Hamels is aging and is getting worse with age (in contrast to, say Charlie Morton, was is getting better with age); yea they could bring him in as a 5th starter (not 4th) but even that is no cinch the way he's trending. I guess he could have a bounceback but I would't rely on it.
  #488  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:16 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Hamels is aging and is getting worse with age (in contrast to, say Charlie Morton, was is getting better with age); yea they could bring him in as a 5th starter (not 4th) but even that is no cinch the way he's trending. I guess he could have a bounceback but I would't rely on it.
He will be better than Covey/Fulmer/Banuelos/Santiago/Detwiler/Despaigne.

He will probably be better than Cease/Kopech/Lopez initially, and once they get their feet underneath them, he would be useful in the bullpen.

I hope itís a 1-year deal if it happens.
  #489  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:19 PM
RCWHITESOX RCWHITESOX is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Hamels is aging and is getting worse with age (in contrast to, say Charlie Morton, was is getting better with age); yea they could bring him in as a 5th starter (not 4th) but even that is no cinch the way he's trending. I guess he could have a bounceback but I would't rely on it.
He can already come in as a 4 or 5 because heís a hell of a lot better than anyone they have now as a 4/5. Sure Hamels is not the same pitcher he was 5 years ago but heís still a proven starter. The Sox need starting pitching and if they can add Wheeler and Hamels itís a win win!
  #490  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:20 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
I didn't post later innings because of sample size. He never gets that far. It's not significant. What happens when he faces hitters the second time through prevented him from pitching that deep most of his starts.
This is moving the goal posts if I've ever seen it.

Never gets that far?

He got to the 5th inning 19/27 starts with an ERA of 1.96 that inning.

6th inning 15/27 with an ERA of 4.26

7th inning 8/27 with an ERA of 0.00

8th inning 2/27 with an ERA of 0.00

His ERA actually improves as the game goes on:

Innings 1-3 has an ERA of 4.15
Innings 4-6 has an ERA of 3.86
Innings 7-8 has an ERA of 0.00

"It's not significant" What?? The later innings were your whole argument. So all 19 of the games where he went 5-8 innings are not significant? OK man.

He also improves from the 2nd time through the batting order to the 3rd by a lot.

2nd time OPS of .896
3rd time OPS of .706
  #491  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:22 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RCWHITESOX View Post
He can already come in as a 4 or 5 because heís a hell of a lot better than anyone they have now as a 4/5. Sure Hamels is not the same pitcher he was 5 years ago but heís still a proven starter. The Sox need starting pitching and if they can add Wheeler and Hamels itís a win win!
Sure he's a 4/5 IF he doesn't continue to decline. And this FO has a habit of believing that decliners will suddenly turn it around once they enter the happy clubhouse of Robin/Ricky.

Yes he's better than Covey - what a high bar that is. What are we talking about here? 78 wins again? Or serious contention.
  #492  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:23 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
He will be better than Covey/Fulmer/Banuelos/Santiago/Detwiler/Despaigne.

He will probably be better than Cease/Kopech/Lopez initially, and once they get their feet underneath them, he would be useful in the bullpen.

I hope itís a 1-year deal if it happens.
The entire point of signing Hamels is to keep the contract at 1 year.
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  #493  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:34 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The entire point of signing Hamels is to keep the contract at 1 year.
I understand. And the whole point of giving Abreu the QO was to keep him for one year.

We donít know what Hahn will do. What if JRís got a grandson who loves Hamels?
  #494  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:49 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
This is moving the goal posts if I've ever seen it.

Never gets that far?

He got to the 5th inning 19/27 starts with an ERA of 1.96 that inning.

6th inning 15/27 with an ERA of 4.26

7th inning 8/27 with an ERA of 0.00

8th inning 2/27 with an ERA of 0.00

His ERA actually improves as the game goes on:

Innings 1-3 has an ERA of 4.15
Innings 4-6 has an ERA of 3.86
Innings 7-8 has an ERA of 0.00

"It's not significant" What?? The later innings were your whole argument. So all 19 of the games where he went 5-8 innings are not significant? OK man.

He also improves from the 2nd time through the batting order to the 3rd by a lot.

2nd time OPS of .896
3rd time OPS of .706

He threw only 10 innings beyond the 6th inning all season. You can't make an evaluation based on those innings, because it's WAY too small a sample size. Which is why it's also unsurprisingly not withing 2 (or 1 even) standard deviations of the mean. That is what I mean by not significant. Statistically it's outlier data that isn't characteristic of the bulk of the data set.

Last edited by blandman; 12-03-2019 at 06:58 PM.
  #495  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:54 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
This is moving the goal posts if I've ever seen it.

Never gets that far?

He got to the 5th inning 19/27 starts with an ERA of 1.96 that inning.

6th inning 15/27 with an ERA of 4.26

7th inning 8/27 with an ERA of 0.00

8th inning 2/27 with an ERA of 0.00

His ERA actually improves as the game goes on:

Innings 1-3 has an ERA of 4.15
Innings 4-6 has an ERA of 3.86
Innings 7-8 has an ERA of 0.00

"It's not significant" What?? The later innings were your whole argument. So all 19 of the games where he went 5-8 innings are not significant? OK man.

He also improves from the 2nd time through the batting order to the 3rd by a lot.

2nd time OPS of .896
3rd time OPS of .706
Actually I think you're geting that backwards for the final couple innings. The reason he pitched well those innings is because he was pitching well enough to warrant staying in the game. The sample size on them is very small. The 5th and 6th are relevant stats but the 7-8 stuff just has too small a sample size to mean much. I'm guessing if you go through MLB and look at all starters ERA for the 9th inning it's low. That isn't an argument to keep pitchers in the game regularly for 9 innings, but reflects the fact that pitchers who pitched that deep into the game were pitching exceptionally well the few times they were allowed to try for a complete game.
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