*Official* 2013 First AL & NL Managers Fired Predictions

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

I'm not ignoring his statement at all. I included it in my previous post. He said he would wait until 2015 to worry about a contract extension. That doesn't mean he's going to quit.

The last time I signed a contract, I waited until the last possible day before I turned it in. Why? I wasn't having second thoughts about the job. I wanted to have time to review the contract and also to have an attorney review it, because my contract includes a "no compete" clause. I wanted to be sure that I understood the exact language of the clause, so that I didn't inadvertently violate the contract at a later time.

Robin's situation is different, but that doesn't mean he's going to quit. A number of athletes opt out of their contracts when possible not because they intend to walk, but because they want to test their market value as a negotiation tool. I don't know if that's what Ventura is doing, but nothing about his behavior this season has left me with the impression he questions his fitness as White Sox manager.



I don't why you're repeating it, as I said it once in the original post.



My implying that you are in error (something is wrong with you) is an attack? Good grief!



Ridiculous. You cannot assume that Robin will lose his job based on other managerial changes, particularly not if the White Sox perform well. I know they're not expected to win, but expectations don't always have a basis in reality.



He said that he wants to be sure management is satisfied, not that he believes he isn't qualified. I've said similar things about myself, not because I was questioning my fitness for a particular job, but because I recognize that my wishes aren't necessarily those of the people around me. That's life. Robin understands that, and seems to have a good perspective on things.



I don't buy that, because every time I hear "best left-handed hitter" mentioned, names like Hamilton, Votto, and Cano are the ones I hear mentioned most often. I've never heard Prince Fielder praised as the best left-handed hitter in baseball. I've never even heard his name praised as the best left-handed power hitter in baseball, as many people still believe that if Ryan Howard can stay healthy (not likely), that title remains his to lose.

If you can show me an article where Fielder is listed as the best left-handed in Major League Baseball, I'll reconsider my position.



They aren't. That wasn't my point. You referred to the Detroit Tigers as "a once in a generation" team, citing the presence of Cabrera, Verlander, and Fielder as reasons why. I was simply pointing out that those three were also present last season, a season that saw the Tigers win absolutely nothing. How can you call a team that finished second best a "once in a generation team?" That's ridiculous.



That's exactly what I mean. One can estimate future production based on past performance, but an estimate is not a guarantee, something I've stressed over and over again on this board.



1. I addressed the first point earlier in this post.

2. The White Sox outperformed expectations, so it's hard to believe that anyone would fire Ventura over their September collapse. His job could certainly be in jeopardy if such a thing kept happening, but we're not at that point yet. Right now, Sox management is extremely pleased with Ventura and his staff. Until evidence surfaces that proves otherwise, I'm comfortable with Ventura as manager.

3. I addressed this point, as well. Ventura said nothing that led me to believe he questions his fitness for the job. He simply left open the possibility that management would change its mind, which is a realistic point of view. Robin played for several different managers during his time with the Sox, and he probably realizes that decisions regarding each person's job status weren't always made based on performance, and is mentally preparing himself for the possibility that factors beyond his control may determine his future as White Sox manager.



If it makes you feel better, I don't have any plans to burn you at the stake.







You're accusing me of trolling when you pollute this board with more unsubstantiated bull**** than any other poster? That's rich.

RK I understand your argument for why you don't think Robin will lose his job. I just don't see why my argument is such a big deal/stretch. The only logical reason for denying my right to it is homerism, vendetta, or a combination of the two. My reasons are still accurate. They may not turn out to be right, but this is a prediction thread. Those factors can contribute to the outcome I've indicated.

Things aren't unsubstantiated bull**** when you're unwilling to acknowledge factors and their potential outcomes. Once again...this is a prediction thread. No one is talking about certainties. Only what might happen. Disagreeing with me is one thing. Indicating something is personally wrong with me because you don't want to hear it is so ****ing petty. If I were any other poster, it would be a violation of the board rules.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

RK I understand your argument for why you don't think Robin will lose his job. I just don't see why my argument is such a big deal/stretch.

Because nothing about Robin's situation indicates that he's unhappy in his job or that the Sox believe they made a mistake in offering it to him. Yes, he turned down the extension, but as I said, I think he recognizes the possibility that management may have a different perspective on his job performance in two years than they do today, and would rather earn a contract extension than risk being paid to do nothing if he's fired after 2014.

Originally Posted by blandman

The only logical reason for denying my right to it is homerism, vendetta, or a combination of the two.

I'm not denying you the right to make an argument. I don't have the power to do that. I don't agree with your argument, but you're welcome to embarrass yourself at your convenience.

Originally Posted by blandman

My reasons are still accurate. They may not turn out to be right, but this is a prediction thread. Those factors can contribute to the outcome I've indicated.

The reasons you've provided to justify your position are as follows:

1. Robin believes he's unfit for the job of White Sox manager.

2. Most MLB managers are fired before their third year.

Here's the problem with your reasons: Robin never said he believes he's not qualified for the position of Sox manager. I've re-posted what he said about his contract below:

Originally Posted by Robin Ventura

“It’s flattering and nice and everything," said Ventura, who agreed to a three-year deal in October of 2012 and had been offered an extension for the 2015 season from general manager Rick Hahn. "But in talking to Rick, we have two more years to do this. We have good communication and everything is fine. I think this is my contract. I was the same way as a player. I’ll worry about it at the end of it.

"For them, I want them to have two years to think I’m still the right guy for the job for that to continue to go. It wasn’t anything that was a big deal, so I’m not holding out for anything or disappointed in not wanting to stay here. I think at the end of that, that’s when you talk about it. I’m not worried about trying to extend anything right now. I’m more worried with this team in this spring training than I’m worried about 2015.”

Ventura makes his feelings perfectly clear. He says that the decision about whether he's the right man for the job lies with Sox management, which it does. He's absolutely correct in what he says. He never says that he believes he's not qualified for the job.

As far as your second statement is concerned, I took the liberty of combing through the current list of MLB managers. Of the thirty managers currently working in baseball, eighteen are in at least their third season with their current club. Another manager, John Farrell, in in his first season with Boston after choosing to take the Red Sox job because he's always dreamed of managing in Boston.

I've include the list in this post, so that others may see it, as well.

Originally Posted by blandman

Things aren't unsubstantiated bull**** when you're unwilling to acknowledge factors and their potential outcomes.

The factors you've used to justify your argument are incorrect. That's the problem.

Originally Posted by blandman

Once again...this is a prediction thread. No one is talking about certainties. Only what might happen.

Yes, it is a prediction thread, but your predictions are based on nonsense. That's why I have a problem with them. No one else is making predictions based on the "factors" you're using.

Originally Posted by blandman

Disagreeing with me is one thing. Indicating something is personally wrong with me because you don't want to hear it is so ****ing petty.

I said you were in error because you are. I'll remind you again of the points you made to justify your argument:

1. Robin Ventura believes he's unfit to manage the Chicago White Sox.

2. Most MLB mangers are fired before their third year.

Ventura never said that, as has been pointed out before, and I've addressed your second point. I don't believe something is wrong with you because I don't want to hear your arguments. I don't want to hear your arguments because your arguments are wrong. If you can present an argument that makes more sense, I'll be happy to listen, but you've yet to do so.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

Because nothing about Robin's situation indicates that he's unhappy in his job or that the Sox believe they made a mistake in offering it to him. Yes, he turned down the extension, but as I said, I think he recognizes the possibility that management may have a different perspective on his job performance in two years than they do today, and would rather earn a contract extension than risk being paid to do nothing if he's fired after 2014.



I'm not denying you the right to make an argument. I don't have the power to do that. I don't agree with your argument, but you're welcome to embarrass yourself at your convenience.



The reasons you've provided to justify your position are as follows:

1. Robin believes he's unfit for the job of White Sox manager.

2. Most MLB managers are fired before their third year.

Here's the problem with your reasons: Robin never said he believes he's not qualified for the position of Sox manager. I've re-posted what he said about his contract below:



Ventura makes his feelings perfectly clear. He says that the decision about whether he's the right man for the job lies with Sox management, which it does. He's absolutely correct in what he says. He never says that he believes he's not qualified for the job.

As far as your second statement is concerned, I took the liberty of combing through the current list of MLB managers. Of the thirty managers currently working in baseball, eighteen are in at least their third season with their current club. Another manager, John Farrell, in in his first season with Boston after choosing to take the Red Sox job because he's always dreamed of managing in Boston.

I've include the list in this post, so that others may see it, as well.



The factors you've used to justify your argument are incorrect. That's the problem.



Yes, it is a prediction thread, but your predictions are based on nonsense. That's why I have a problem with them. No one else is making predictions based on the "factors" you're using.



I said you were in error because you are. I'll remind you again of the points you made to justify your argument:

1. Robin Ventura believes he's unfit to manage the Chicago White Sox.

2. Most MLB mangers are fired before their third year.

Ventura never said that, as has been pointed out before, and I've addressed your second point. I don't believe something is wrong with you because I don't want to hear your arguments. I don't want to hear your arguments because your arguments are wrong. If you can present an argument that makes more sense, I'll be happy to listen, but you've yet to do so.

You keep repeating the same non-factors over and over again.

You BELIEVE Ventura's statements mean one thing. I believe they, along with the fact that he initially didn't want the job either, mean another. Yeah, I might be wrong. But it's based on something. Something tangible. Something not completely a stretch. And certainly something that doesn't warrant an individual saying that there is something wrong with me personally for thinking.

The average tenure of an MLB coach is less than 4 years. The odds of coaching less than three is more than 70%. Going through the current coaches doesn't make a lot of sense. It's about median, not mean. Mean tells you nothing.

In truth, Robin's in the year that determines most coaches' fates. And he's coming off a season where his team fell apart in September. Yeah...no one expected him to get that far. But it still happened. That's a viable reason people lose their jobs. Sure, you can argue the organization won't see it that way. But to argue that there's no way they will? What are YOU basing that on? Because history is FULL of instances that managers get the early can.

I like how you left that out the last time. At least it seems you're conceding it, even if you won't admit it.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

You keep repeating the same non-factors over and over again.

You BELIEVE Ventura's statements mean one thing. I believe they, along with the fact that he initially didn't want the job either, mean another. Yeah, I might be wrong. But it's based on something. Something tangible. Something not completely a stretch. And certainly something that doesn't warrant an individual saying that there is something wrong with me personally for thinking.

You have never presented what that "something" is, munch. That's the problem I have with your argument. Show me this "tangible" material, and I'll rethink my argument.

Originally Posted by blandman

The average tenure of an MLB coach is less than 4 years. The odds of coaching less than three is more than 70%. Going through the current coaches doesn't make a lot of sense. It's about median, not mean. Mean tells you nothing.

Where did you obtain these statistics from? Again, you need to provide evidence that supports your statements, or I don't have to take them seriously.

Originally Posted by blandman

In truth, Robin's in the year that determines most coaches' fates. And he's coming off a season where his team fell apart in September. Yeah...no one expected him to get that far. But it still happened. That's a viable reason people lose their jobs. Sure, you can argue the organization won't see it that way. But to argue that there's no way they will? What are YOU basing that on? Because history is FULL of instances that managers get the early can.

I never said that. Show me where I said, "There's no way he gets fired."

Originally Posted by blandman

I like how you left that out the last time. At least it seems you're conceding it, even if you won't admit it.

I'm not conceding anything to you. That you would believe otherwise proves that you just don't get it.

[HomeFish]

Originally Posted by blandman

Yes. I get the feeling he's biding his time, more than anything else. If things turn, I don't think he'd hesitate.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by HomeFish

HomeFish, this post made me smile. Thank you.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

You have never presented what that "something" is, munch. That's the problem I have with your argument. Show me this "tangible" material, and I'll rethink my argument.



Where did you obtain these statistics from? Again, you need to provide evidence that supports your statements, or I don't have to take them seriously.



I never said that. Show me where I said, "There's no way he gets fired."



I'm not conceding anything to you. That you would believe otherwise proves that you just don't get it.

Ventura's statements are tangible. Interpreting different from me is not the same as me not providing evidence. I know you're not simple, so you're ****ing trolling me. Stop it.

bookofodds.com has stats on pretty much anything. here's an article about coaches that shows some of the same stuff http://www.bookofodds.com/Daily-Life...on-the-Way-Out. the numbers are a bit off the last time I looked, but still strongly support me. But really...as a baseball fan, this is more of a common knowledge sort of thing. So it REALLY feels like you're trolling me.

Countering my claim that he COULD be fired (as a prediction) IS saying he can't be fired. Don't give me that BS.

I get everything you're saying, you just aren't saying anything substantial, mixed in with personal jabs.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

Ventura's statements are tangible. Interpreting different from me is not the same as me not providing evidence. I know you're not simple, so you're ****ing trolling me. Stop it.

Once again, Ventura never said that he doesn't believe he's the right person to manage the Chicago White Sox. He said that the decisions rests with management, which is absolutely correct.

Originally Posted by blandman

bookofodds.com has stats on pretty much anything. here's an article about coaches that shows some of the same stuff http://www.bookofodds.com/Daily-Life...on-the-Way-Out. the numbers are a bit off the last time I looked, but still strongly support me. But really...as a baseball fan, this is more of a common knowledge sort of thing. So it REALLY feels like you're trolling me.

I'm trolling you because you've read an article that I haven't. What? I'll admit that you correctly cited the statistics about MLB managers not lasting four years in a given job. You were correct on that point, as the article supports your statement.

Originally Posted by blandman

Countering my claim that he COULD be fired (as a prediction) IS saying he can't be fired. Don't give me that BS.

That's my point, though. I never said he couldn't be fired, and you haven't proven otherwise. I said that there wasn't any evidence to suggest that he would be, as the Sox are pleased with his performance as manager.

I get everything you're saying, you just aren't saying anything substantial, mixed in with personal jabs.

I'm not going to dignify this last point with a response.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

Once again, Ventura never said that he doesn't believe he's the right person to manage the Chicago White Sox. He said that the decisions rests with management, which is absolutely correct.

KW was quoted saying Ventura told him exactly that when he first approached him about the job. And that he had to convince him otherwise.

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

I'm trolling you because you've read an article that I haven't. What? I'll admit that you correctly cited the statistics about MLB managers not lasting four years in a given job. You were correct on that point, as the article supports your statement.

You're trolling because I know you already know that. You're not new to baseball or the board. Most managers get canned in the first two years. Common knowledge.

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

That's my point, though. I never said he couldn't be fired, and you haven't proven otherwise. I said that there wasn't any evidence to suggest that he would be, as the Sox are pleased with his performance as manager.

Not accepting evidence is not the same as no evidence. Between Ventura's statement, manager statistics, and the cliff the last team fell off (which now you've continued not to mention twice), the evidence is there. Don't agree with it? Fine. That's not the same as no evidence.

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

I'm not going to dignify this last point with a response.

Are you sure you wouldn't like to tell me what's wrong with me or that I've got a personal agenda or liken me to Jay Mariotti? No? Okay, maybe next time.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

KW was quoted saying Ventura told him exactly that when he first approached him about the job. And that he had to convince him otherwise.

Was there ever a direct quote from Ventura himself saying that? I don't attach much credibility to Williams' statements, because he's just as likely to say something stupid as he is useful. Furthermore, even if Ventura said that before taking the job, that doesn't mean he still feels that way now that he's held the job for more than one full season, and nothing he's said since the start of Spring Training suggests otherwise, as I've pointed out to you multiple times.

Originally Posted by blandman

You're trolling because I know you already know that. You're not new to baseball or the board. Most managers get canned in the first two years. Common knowledge.

You know that I already knew this? I'd love to see you prove that one. More nonsense.

Originally Posted by blandman

Not accepting evidence is not the same as no evidence. Between Ventura's statement, manager statistics, and the cliff the last team fell off (which now you've continued not to mention twice), the evidence is there. Don't agree with it? Fine. That's not the same as no evidence.

Once again, Ventura has said nothing this season that suggests he doesn't believe he's the right man for the job, and you can't keep using that- or his turning down an extension- as evidence to support your argument when the evidence doesn't even exist.

Originally Posted by blandman

Are you sure you wouldn't like to tell me what's wrong with me or that I've got a personal agenda or liken me to Jay Mariotti? No? Okay, maybe next time.

I didn't compare you to Jay Mariotti. That was said by another poster, so I don't know why you're throwing that in my face. Calling me out for something I never said isn't a smart move.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

Was there ever a direct quote from Ventura himself saying that? I don't attach much credibility to Williams' statements, because he's just as likely to say something stupid as he is useful. Furthermore, even if Ventura said that before taking the job, that doesn't mean he still feels that way now that he's held the job for more than one full season, and nothing he's said since the start of Spring Training suggests otherwise, as I've pointed out to you multiple times.

"There was a lot of (apprehension) when I first went home to talk to my wife about it," Ventura said. "It turned us upside down. I have a good thing going and it was easy getting back into the game doing what I was doing. I had the freedom to coach and come back home. I think there was a lot of comfort in talking to the family that this was the White Sox, which for us is an extended family."

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

I didn't compare you to Jay Mariotti. That was said by another poster, so I don't know why you're throwing that in my face. Calling me out for something I never said isn't a smart move.

Sorry, sometimes it's hard to keep track, what with all the "not personal attacks" directed at me on this board.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

"There was a lot of (apprehension) when I first went home to talk to my wife about it," Ventura said. "It turned us upside down. I have a good thing going and it was easy getting back into the game doing what I was doing. I had the freedom to coach and come back home. I think there was a lot of comfort in talking to the family that this was the White Sox, which for us is an extended family."

I have a hard time reading that as "I'm not the right man for the job." It certainly seems as though he was hesitant about taking it, but I'll be honest and say that I don't know what the cause of his hesitation is, based on that quote. I do appreciate you finding it.

Edit: The ESPN Chicago article published after Ventura was hired expands on the idea. Ventura was working as a special advisor to Buddy Bell before he was named manager. It sounds like his comment was in reference to the enormous change in his responsibilities, as being field manager would entail a greater committment than his advisory role, hence, his comment about "having the freedom to coach and come back home." I'm sorry, munch. I just don't see in his comments what you're seeing. We'll have to agree to disagree.

Originally Posted by blandman

Sorry, sometimes it's hard to keep track, what with all the "not personal attacks" directed at me on this board.

No comment.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by RKMeibalane

I have a hard time reading that as "I'm not the right man for the job." It certainly seems as though he was hesitant about taking it, but I'll be honest and say that I don't know what the cause of his hesitation is, based on that quote. I do appreciate you finding it.

It was mostly in reference to Robin wanting to stay home instead of coaching, and being apprehensive about jumping directly into that role as opposed to a lesser coach. KW went on to elaborate on that with specifics on support structure and stuff in order to convince him managing wouldn't be a big deal. Most of this happened at his hiring press conference. But initially Robin was not going to say yes.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by blandman

It was mostly in reference to Robin wanting to stay home instead of coaching, and being apprehensive about jumping directly into that role as opposed to a lesser coach. KW went on to elaborate on that with specifics on support structure and stuff in order to convince him managing wouldn't be a big deal. Most of this happened at his hiring press conference. But initially Robin was not going to say yes.

Yes, I included that in my edit of my above post. I still have a hard time reading as his questioning his fitness for the job. The reality is, being a field manager is a much greater responsiblity than being a special advisor, and making the transition from advisor to manager would be difficult for even an experienced manager. It's not surprising that Robin would be hesitant, but I don't see his hesitancy as his questioning his qualifications for the job. He did take the job (albeit with Williams' encouragement), which he was by no means obligated to do if he didn't believe he was qualified.

As I said, we'll have to agree to disagree on this. I don't see in his comments what you're seeing.

[johnny bench]

Any who....

Yeah, he's under contract till 2018 @ $5M per year, but Mike Scioscia is my pick. Calling a team meeting only 7 games into the season is a clear sign that he knows that he is on a very short lease. Panic in LA.

Moreno wants to win, and has shown that he isn't afraid to eat a bad contract (see Vernon Wells). DiPoto didn't hire him and wants him gone. Check the Angels forum - he has little support there.

Even the presence of the Astros isn't enough to save him; the Astros are ahead of the Angels in the standings right now.

He won't be the Angels manager when they come to Chicago on May 10th.