White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
GO SOX! DSNB!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #136  
Old 05-20-2018, 11:56 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Chicago - Mayfair
Posts: 4,493
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Now obviously the young pitchers this season are not off to a great start, but there is ample reason to believe Cooper will make the most of whatever talent comes his way regardless of the early season struggles this year.

Very true. There are very few pitchers that come up and dominate immediately in the major leagues, but there are plenty that take their lumps for 1 or 2 seasons and then figure it out.
__________________
<a href=http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=3256 target=_blank>http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/v...achmentid=3256</a>

March 16, 2005 - Another happy Sox fan joins the party!
July 6, 2012 - 7 years later he's still part of it...
Reply With Quote
  #137  
Old 05-20-2018, 12:34 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Chubbuck, Idaho
Posts: 33,184
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ricker182 View Post
Interesting take. There are really good pitchers that aren't strikeout guys. Good control can trump overpowering stuff.

They just seem to be rarer than good pitchers that are strikeout guys with overpowering stuff.

When I'm looking for a good pitcher I want to see a guy that has a strikeout pitch. A guy that can consistently produce swings and misses will almost always be successful.
This is the one thing that I've never understood about the Saber people. (OK I don't understand most of the Saber folks but that's another story...)

They value strikeouts highly because the ball isn't put in play...but...they also talk about pitch counts and how high pitch counts are bad.

Well if you strike out a lot of guys you are going to have high pitch counts because you need at least three pitches per strikeout.

Maybe they only want starting pitchers to only go five innings.

Doesn't make sense to me but what the hell do I know.
Reply With Quote
  #138  
Old 05-20-2018, 12:54 PM
asindc asindc is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC area
Posts: 8,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
This is the one thing that I've never understood about the Saber people. (OK I don't understand most of the Saber folks but that's another story...)

They value strikeouts highly because the ball isn't put in play...but...they also talk about pitch counts and how high pitch counts are bad.

Well if you strike out a lot of guys you are going to have high pitch counts because you need at least three pitches per strikeout.

Maybe they only want starting pitchers to only go five innings.

Doesn't make sense to me but what the hell do I know.
What is even more incongruent to me is that strikeouts for pitchers are highly valued because the ball is not put into play, yet strikeouts are viewed the same as any other out for hitters. Those two concepts are inconsistent with each other.
__________________
"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN (January 12, 2011)


"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the (bleeding) obvious is the first duty of intelligent men." ó George Orwell
Reply With Quote
  #139  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:03 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 55,207
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
What is even more incongruent to me is that strikeouts for pitchers are highly valued because the ball is not put into play, yet strikeouts are viewed the same as any other out for hitters. Those two concepts are inconsistent with each other.
Some of that ties back into BABIP. A ball in play might be a hit. In fact there's about a 30% chance league wide that the ball will end up being a hit. There is also at least some evidence that batters have little control over whether a ball in play results in a hit or an out. Meanwhile a strikeout results in an out 99+% of the time.

So from a defensive perspective K is preferred just because it has a much higher percentage of success than relying on balls in play to get outs.
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #140  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:27 PM
asindc asindc is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC area
Posts: 8,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Some of that ties back into BABIP. A ball in play might be a hit. In fact there's about a 30% chance league wide that the ball will end up being a hit. There is also at least some evidence that batters have little control over whether a ball in play results in a hit or an out. Meanwhile a strikeout results in an out 99+% of the time.

So from a defensive perspective K is preferred just because it has a much higher percentage of success than relying on balls in play to get outs.
Yes, so the converse must be true: The hitter has a higher percentage of success putting the ball in play than he does when striking out (duh!). Yet, some continue to insist trying to avoid strikeouts is not worthwhile for MLB hitters, even while insisting that minor league prospects should work on reducing their K rates.
Reply With Quote
  #141  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:30 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 55,207
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
Yes, so the converse must be true: The hitter has a higher percentage of success putting the ball in play than he does when striking out (duh!). Yet,...
Right but when you're talking about the desire for getting K's over groundouts you're looking at it from a defensive perspective.

You are correct, from an offensive perspective there is little difference between a screaming line drive that is snagged by the right fielder as he leaps at the wall preventing a homerun and a batter standing in the box and watching 3 straight 90 MPH fastballs right down the middle thigh high.

I assume most hitters would still prefer the former because a lot more of those types of outs will result in hits over the course of time.
Reply With Quote
  #142  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:31 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc
What is even more incongruent to me is that strikeouts for pitchers are highly valued because the ball is not put into play, yet strikeouts are viewed the same as any other out for hitters. Those two concepts are inconsistent with each other.
The incongruity happens because you're still imagining that some of those balls put in play will end up not being outs, while the SABR-inclined folks already are conceding all those outs and factoring them into their OBP analysis.

In that type of analysis, a strikeout is just like any other out for a hitter because the outcome (an out) already has been assumed. The data suggests that guys will fail to get on base at a certain clip, and whether their failures to reach base are the result of a strikeout or a ball in play is irrelevant.

On the pitching side of things, a strikeout is prized because it is the only way to guarantee an out. The randomness of fielding errors, poorly-hit balls "beating" the shift, or speedy runners legging out infield singles is eliminated.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and letís fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #143  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:45 PM
asindc asindc is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC area
Posts: 8,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The incongruity happens because you're still imagining that some of those balls put in play will end up not being outs, while the SABR-inclined folks already are conceding all those outs and factoring them into their OBP analysis.

In that type of analysis, a strikeout is just like any other out for a hitter because the outcome (an out) already has been assumed. The data suggests that guys will fail to get on base at a certain clip, and whether their failures to reach base are the result of a strikeout or a ball in play is irrelevant.

On the pitching side of things, a strikeout is prized because it is the only way to guarantee an out. The randomness of fielding errors, poorly-hit balls "beating" the shift, or speedy runners legging out infield singles is eliminated.
But that’s just it, it is not irrelevant. Putting the ball in play yet making an out can result in the following:

1) Runner on 3rd scoring on a groundout;
2) Runner on 3rd scoring on a flyout;
3) Runner on 2nd moving to 3rd with less than two outs;
4) Runner on 1st moving to 2nd in late innings in tie/1-run game;
5) Fielder committing an error/mistake that results in either 1-4.

None of things can happen on a strikeout unless the 3rd strike is dropped or wild pitched. Even then, it is far less likely than when the ball is put into play. So evaluating the effect of a strikeout versus putting the ball in play with the hitter’s OBP in mind is short-sighted.

Last edited by asindc; 05-20-2018 at 01:50 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #144  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:54 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc
But thatís just it, it is not irrelevant. Putting the ball in play yet making an out can result in the following:

1) Runner on 3rd scoring on a groundout;
2) Runner on 3rd scoring on a flyout;
3) Runner on 2nd moving to 3rd with less than two outs;
4) Runner on 1st moving to 2nd in late innings in tie/1-run game;
5) Fielder committing an error/mistake that results in either 1-4 or the hitter reaching base.

None of things can happen on a strikeout unless the 3rd strike is dropped or wild pitched. Even then, it is far less likely than when the ball is put into play. So evaluating the effect of a strikeout versus putting the ball in play with the hitterís OBP in mind is short-sighted.
There were only 925 sacrifice hits and only 1168 sacrifice flies in over 185K plate appearances in the majors last year. Those events do not happen frequently enough to make me prioritize low-K, high-contact approaches over high-K, high-power approaches. I'm far more concerned with getting my fair share of the 15K league-wide extra-base hits, and I hope the White Sox front office shares that mindset.
Reply With Quote
  #145  
Old 05-20-2018, 01:57 PM
asindc asindc is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC area
Posts: 8,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
There were only 925 sacrifice hits and only 1168 sacrifice flies in over 185K plate appearances in the majors last year. Those events do not happen frequently enough to make me prioritize low-K, high-contact approaches over high-K, high-power approaches. I'm far more concerned with getting my fair share of the 15K league-wide extra-base hits, and I hope the White Sox front office shares that mindset.
None of which takes into account runners moving up to 2nd or 3rd base.

Sincere question: Why do some suggest that minor league hitters work on reducing their K rates yet say K rates don’t matter for MLB hitters?
Reply With Quote
  #146  
Old 05-20-2018, 02:02 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc
None of which takes into account runners moving up to 2nd or 3rd base.

Sincere question: Why do some suggest that minor league hitters work on reducing their K rates yet say K rates donít matter for MLB hitters?
Because hitting against major league pitching is incredibly hard, and trying to learn new skills in addition to hitting against major league pitching making a bad situation even worse.
Reply With Quote
  #147  
Old 05-20-2018, 02:04 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 3,948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
There were only 925 sacrifice hits and only 1168 sacrifice flies in over 185K plate appearances in the majors last year. Those events do not happen frequently enough to make me prioritize low-K, high-contact approaches over high-K, high-power approaches. I'm far more concerned with getting my fair share of the 15K league-wide extra-base hits, and I hope the White Sox front office shares that mindset.

It's called balance; they're not mutually exclusive skill sets on a team.
__________________
ďThere were a few hard rules, but everybody was unique, and he understood that. Georgeís great strength was he didnít overcoach. Thereís no place for panic on the mound.Ē - Jim Palmer on George Bamberger ďArms and the man,Ē Sports Illustrated, April 19, 2004
Reply With Quote
  #148  
Old 05-20-2018, 02:08 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 3,948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Now obviously the young pitchers this season are not off to a great start, but there is ample reason to believe Cooper will make the most of whatever talent comes his way regardless of the early season struggles this year.

I get it: Koufax, Carlton, Shilling & Johnson were not built in a day.


I also getting falling into a mindset where our guy can rehab anyone and having that myopia do more harm than good.


Time will tell.
Reply With Quote
  #149  
Old 05-20-2018, 02:12 PM
asindc asindc is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC area
Posts: 8,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
It's called balance; they're not mutually exclusive skill sets on a team.
Exactly. There have been examples of hitters actually producing more power numbers when they stopped trying to hit a HR all the time.
Reply With Quote
  #150  
Old 05-20-2018, 02:14 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc
None of which takes into account runners moving up to 2nd or 3rd base.
Here is some data on "productive outs," defined as a successful pitcher sacrifice with one out, advancing any runner with no outs, or driving in a baserunner with the second out in the inning:

In 16,745 attempts, 4,675 were successful, for a 28% success ratio. Variance is not too large, either, as 25 teams out of 30 had success rates between 25% and 31%. Out of the 7 teams above 30%, only the Rockies and Astros made the playoffs.

I think this facet of the game still is far too random, and far too clustered, for it to be worth a significant amount of focus when constructing a team. How many additional wins would improvement in this area actually produce?

Last edited by Mohoney; 05-20-2018 at 05:29 PM.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:00 PM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.