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  #16  
Old 09-11-2018, 08:41 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by hdog1017 View Post
Not all rebuilds are bound to succeed.

Everyone remembers the Cubs and the Astros, but people forget all the teams that have been terrible for a while. I hope this doesn't happen to the Sox.
It's unusual for a team with as much highly rated talent as the Sox have in the minors not to make at least some kind of charge. You are correct rebuilds fail, but the Sox have 7 guys in the top 100 and several more who could join next year when Kopech and Eloy "graduate".

If the Sox aren't in the hunt for at least a wildcard if not regular division wins starting in 2020 it will be pretty unusual. I assume it's happened before but I'd bet it's not common at all. The independent evaluators aren't THAT bad at their jobs.
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  #17  
Old 09-11-2018, 09:04 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Here at Fangraphs is a short, reasonable take on the Sox. I agree with pretty much everything.
Agreed that this is a pretty good summary. I don't read it as doom-and-gloom either. I think the only top prospect (or former top prospect) who looks like we can write off is Fulmer. The numerous injuries have no question totally sucked and set back the timeline of some players, but the only ones I can think of that I'm really concerned about coming back to their full potential are Hansen and Burger.


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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
We still have two top-30 prospects in Robert and Madrigal who donít figure to be MLB regulars until 2021. Competing in 2019 never was a realistic proposition.
I completely agree with this. The only people who pegged 2019 as our year to be back in contention where unrealistic, impatient fans and also some in the media who were also being unrealistic.

Some were hoping for 2019 because they (and all us Sox fans) are tired of losing (and I can't blame them). Others simply can't wait to proclaim this rebuild as going off the rails, that goalposts are being moved, etc. Why wait until 2020 to make a reasoned judgement when we can simply claim on an almost daily basis for the next 18 months that this is all failing and that Sox management are a bunch of idiots?
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  #18  
Old 09-11-2018, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Agreed that this is a pretty good summary. I don't read it as doom-and-gloom either. I think the only top prospect (or former top prospect) who looks like we can write off is Fulmer. The numerous injuries have no question totally sucked and set back the timeline of some players, but the only ones I can think of that I'm really concerned about coming back to their full potential are Hansen and Burger.




I completely agree with this. The only people who pegged 2019 as our year to be back in contention where unrealistic, impatient fans and also some in the media who were also being unrealistic.

Some were hoping for 2019 because they (and all us Sox fans) are tired of losing (and I can't blame them). Others simply can't wait to proclaim this rebuild as going off the rails, that goalposts are being moved, etc. Why wait until 2020 to make a reasoned judgement when we can simply claim on an almost daily basis for the next 18 months that this is all failing and that Sox management are a bunch of idiots?
I disagree. I don't think people were saying the Sox were shoe-ins to be WS contenders in 2019, but the way the pitching was shaping up it wasn't unreasonable to think there was a chance for the team to be wildcard contenders next year.

Yes a lot would have to go right, but if Kopech hadn't gotten hurt and Giolito and Lopez both continued to grow there was reason to believe that the pitching staff would be wildcard worthy at least and with Jimenez joining the team early on the offense might be 100 runs better next year than it is this year. Add in some hope that Moncada might start to turn into the player we all hope he will be and that team certainly appears to have a shot at wildcard contention.
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  #19  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:07 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I disagree. I don't think people were saying the Sox were shoe-ins to be WS contenders in 2019, but the way the pitching was shaping up it wasn't unreasonable to think there was a chance for the team to be wildcard contenders next year.

Yes a lot would have to go right, but if Kopech hadn't gotten hurt and Giolito and Lopez both continued to grow there was reason to believe that the pitching staff would be wildcard worthy at least and with Jimenez joining the team early on the offense might be 100 runs better next year than it is this year. Add in some hope that Moncada might start to turn into the player we all hope he will be and that team certainly appears to have a shot at wildcard contention.

Good point. Yes, I can see where having the team be a WC contender in 2019 was within the spectrum of reasonable outcomes. It was on the optimistic end of that spectrum perhaps, but still realistic to think it might happen.

I just don't agree with others who constantly say that timelines are being moved or that the Sox are not being give any timeline whatsoever. Some prospects get injured and not every prospect hits the ground running after their MLB debut. That's why no team in their right mind sets a bright line deadline for success. It's maddening to us because injuries have hit a number of top prospects this year and because Giolito, Moncada, and Lopez have struggled this year. Hard to put a positive spin on that, but I still think the rebuild is on track.

It just gets tiresome to hear the constant "ahem, no timelines, nothing to see here, yep that's right Hahn gets a free pass from everyone once again" kind of cracks with every speed bump we hit along the way. I mean, people can certainly express those opinions, but then they should be ready to hear a rebuttal to that and perhaps even make some meaningful contributions to the debate instead of merely repeating the same old "Sox management are morons" trope.
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  #20  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:28 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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What some people need to keep in mind is that with the Cubs and Astros, they didn't start to show any sign of real progress until year 4 or so. It won't surprise me if we don't see any signs of meaningful improvement until 2020. I just hope some here can hold on until then.
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  #21  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:29 AM
wxkid23 wxkid23 is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
I have to disagree. His underlying metrics are pretty bad. Striking out fewer guys than ever. His .201 BABIP is completely unsustainable and speaks to a *huge* amount of luck. Unsurprising, then, that he is sporting a 4.76 FIP and 4.96 SIERA.

In short, his ERA is a very pretty mirage.
Been trying to say this. Velocity is low as well. I don't fully believe he's healthy.
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  #22  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:35 AM
wxkid23 wxkid23 is offline
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I feel worse about the rebuild than I did in April. Injuries play a large part in this, along with the it's looking likely that we get the bottom Moncada and not the talented high end projection.

A lot of work is left to be done and I continue to doubt the folks and money needed to pull this off are in place. I know that if we aren't seeing a winner by 2020, what's left of the fans will be headed for the exits.
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  #23  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Good point. Yes, I can see where having the team be a WC contender in 2019 was within the spectrum of reasonable outcomes. It was on the optimistic end of that spectrum perhaps, but still realistic to think it might happen.

I just don't agree with others who constantly say that timelines are being moved or that the Sox are not being give any timeline whatsoever. Some prospects get injured and not every prospect hits the ground running after their MLB debut. That's why no team in their right mind sets a bright line deadline for success. It's maddening to us because injuries have hit a number of top prospects this year and because Giolito, Moncada, and Lopez have struggled this year. Hard to put a positive spin on that, but I still think the rebuild is on track.

It just gets tiresome to hear the constant "ahem, no timelines, nothing to see here, yep that's right Hahn gets a free pass from everyone once again" kind of cracks with every speed bump we hit along the way. I mean, people can certainly express those opinions, but then they should be ready to hear a rebuttal to that and perhaps even make some meaningful contributions to the debate instead of merely repeating the same old "Sox management are morons" trope.
That's speculating about future events. Hard to rebut something that is an opinion about something that hasn't happened. I mostly just ignore those cracks.
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  #24  
Old 09-12-2018, 11:25 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Honestly, I'm not worried at all about Kopech. Plenty of guys have gone down early in their career with a torn UCL and bounced back. I am significantly more worried about Giolito and Lopez. There is a surgery to repair a torn UCL, there is no surgery to repair a 5.00 ERA. I do think the Sox will need to sign one to two free agent starters when the time comes.

I am also not worried about the bullpen. There seem to be many potential future bullpen arms in the Sox system, and bullpen is really a position where you can bring in non-roster invitees or scrap-heap FAs and they can be effective. It's also an easy position to trade for at the deadline.

My biggest concern is the offense. The rebuild isn't producing great position player prospects apart from Eloy.
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  #25  
Old 09-12-2018, 12:22 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Here's a quick attempt to breakdown the progress (or lack of) of top prospects/rebuild pieces this year. This was just off the top of my head and not painstakingly vetted, so please be kind if I'm way off base with anyone or missed someone important. Let me know what you guys think.

Made good to great progress:
Cease, Jimenez, Anderson, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Madrigal, Sheets

Good to great progress before UCL-related season-ending injury
Kopech (return ~start of '20), Dunning (return: ?), Adolfo (return ~start of '19)
**I still expect all 3 to make a full recovery

Progress slowed/stalled/uncertain
Injury related: Rodon, Robert, Burger (out until mid-2019), Burdi (has returned to AZ league rehab from TJS, still high-ceiling reliever close to MLB-ready),
Non-injury related: Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Collins

Significant regression
Fulmer, Hansen (looked terrible in half season since returning from injury)

2nd-tier prospects who made good to great progress this year
Fry, Hamilton, Burr, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Zavala, Lambert, Rivera, Flores, Tyler Johnson, Bryce Bush

Please note that I'm not suggesting that players on the "good" list are all finished products, sure things, and don't need to improve on anything. For example, Sheets and Rutherford need to eventually show more power. But, IMO they still made good progress at Winston Salem this year and have time to make needed improvements. The only 2018 picks I included were Madrigal and Bush since they had noteworthy success. We'll see next year how they and the others (Walker, Pilkington, etc.) do in their first full pro season.
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  #26  
Old 09-12-2018, 12:46 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by wxkid23 View Post
Been trying to say this. Velocity is low as well. I don't fully believe he's healthy.
His velocity is low to start games but I think he was averaging around 97 second time through the order. (Maybe he wasnít averaging it, but he was certainly hitting it).
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  #27  
Old 09-12-2018, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Here's a quick attempt to breakdown the progress (or lack of) of top prospects/rebuild pieces this year. This was just off the top of my head and not painstakingly vetted, so please be kind if I'm way off base with anyone or missed someone important. Let me know what you guys think.

Made good to great progress:
Cease, Jimenez, Anderson, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Madrigal, Sheets

Good to great progress before UCL-related season-ending injury
Kopech (return ~start of '20), Dunning (return: ?), Adolfo (return ~start of '19)
**I still expect all 3 to make a full recovery

Progress slowed/stalled/uncertain
Injury related: Rodon, Robert, Burger (out until mid-2019), Burdi (has returned to AZ league rehab from TJS, still high-ceiling reliever close to MLB-ready),
Non-injury related: Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Collins

Significant regression
Fulmer, Hansen (looked terrible in half season since returning from injury)

2nd-tier prospects who made good to great progress this year
Fry, Hamilton, Burr, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Zavala, Lambert, Rivera, Flores, Tyler Johnson, Bryce Bush

Please note that I'm not suggesting that players on the "good" list are all finished products, sure things, and don't need to improve on anything. For example, Sheets and Rutherford need to eventually show more power. But, IMO they still made good progress at Winston Salem this year and have time to make needed improvements. The only 2018 picks I included were Madrigal and Bush since they had noteworthy success. We'll see next year how they and the others (Walker, Pilkington, etc.) do in their first full pro season.
A lot of the bright spots here are A-ball players. I guess why the OP is short-term pessimistic, long-term optimistic about the Sox.
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  #28  
Old 09-12-2018, 03:07 PM
LITTLE NELL LITTLE NELL is offline
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The success of the rebuild is going to come down to how much the JR regime is willing to spend on high priced free agents, we aren't going to win anything with just the players we have now at the Major and Minor league levels.
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  #29  
Old 09-12-2018, 03:54 PM
Marqhead Marqhead is offline
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Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL View Post
The success of the rebuild is going to come down to how much the JR regime is willing to spend on high priced free agents, we aren't going to win anything with just the players we have now at the Major and Minor league levels.
Yep. You need some prospects to pan out and you need to fill in the gaps with vets. Until that happens we have no idea how successful this rebuild is. If the plan is to rebuild only with the farm system, it’s not gonna work plain and simple. We will start to know what our prospects for success look like when the wallet gets opened up in free agency.
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  #30  
Old 09-12-2018, 05:59 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Here's a quick attempt to breakdown the progress (or lack of) of top prospects/rebuild pieces this year. This was just off the top of my head and not painstakingly vetted, so please be kind if I'm way off base with anyone or missed someone important. Let me know what you guys think.

Made good to great progress:
Cease, Jimenez, Anderson, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Madrigal, Sheets

Good to great progress before UCL-related season-ending injury
Kopech (return ~start of '20), Dunning (return: ?), Adolfo (return ~start of '19)
**I still expect all 3 to make a full recovery

Progress slowed/stalled/uncertain
Injury related: Rodon, Robert, Burger (out until mid-2019), Burdi (has returned to AZ league rehab from TJS, still high-ceiling reliever close to MLB-ready),
Non-injury related: Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Collins

Significant regression
Fulmer, Hansen (looked terrible in half season since returning from injury)

2nd-tier prospects who made good to great progress this year
Fry, Hamilton, Burr, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Zavala, Lambert, Rivera, Flores, Tyler Johnson, Bryce Bush

Please note that I'm not suggesting that players on the "good" list are all finished products, sure things, and don't need to improve on anything. For example, Sheets and Rutherford need to eventually show more power. But, IMO they still made good progress at Winston Salem this year and have time to make needed improvements. The only 2018 picks I included were Madrigal and Bush since they had noteworthy success. We'll see next year how they and the others (Walker, Pilkington, etc.) do in their first full pro season.
Oh, under 2nd-tier prospects who made good progress this year, I forgot to include Jose Ruiz.
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