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  #106  
Old 06-22-2019, 09:07 PM
TDog TDog is online now
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It is infinitely easier to sign stars to big money when you're current roster is cheap than it is to sign stars when your roster is in late arbitration. In a best case scenario, we're still not signing everyone and likely will need to do maneuvering to remain competitive. But the idea is to lock in some big stars from free agency while your roster also costs nothing around them for the first 3-4 years. Because really that's the window. Waiting until everyone fully develops and is ready for arbitration/extensions/free agency is how you start another rebuild in 5 years. We're looking at what? 2021 currently for competing? Machado on that team is not a problem. But in 2023 and 2024, we'd be making decisions anyway on who to keep, who to try to extend, and who to trade for depth. So I get your point, but in actuality Machado really doesn't affect that all that much because you're really looking at him over one player (provided you don't trade Machado). But his lack of presence DOES affect those couple of prime years where everyone else is cheap and good, and how good we are in the the prime years of this rebuild is capped by the lack of ownership's willingness to use free agency to effectively maximize roster talent. Next year's crop is already barren of a Machado level player, and as we get closer to arbitration signing someone to a monster deal in free agency just gets less and less likely. Which is, again, why I think this rebuild will be fun but has very little chance of leading to a title.

I don't believe this rebuild will lead to a title, and I hope I am wrong about that. But I strongly believe the best chance for this rebuild to lead to a title is not to sign Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract.

I was impressed that the White Sox were pursuing him. I was impressed again that they didn't attempt to save face by signing him to a stupid contract.
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  #107  
Old 07-08-2019, 12:20 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Default Machado Hijack attempt

I'll take Moncada's 80 point OPS advantage over Machado at 3rd while saving the $30M/season to address other problems.

I think a big part of his succcess this season (and long term) is connected to the move to 3rd base (along with more experience at the major league level).
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  #108  
Old 07-08-2019, 02:49 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I don't believe this rebuild will lead to a title, and I hope I am wrong about that. But I strongly believe the best chance for this rebuild to lead to a title is not to sign Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract.

I was impressed that the White Sox were pursuing him. I was impressed again that they didn't attempt to save face by signing him to a stupid contract.

Yes...


Quote:
Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I'll take Moncada's 80 point OPS advantage over Machado at 3rd while saving the $30M/season to address other problems.

I think a big part of his succcess this season (and long term) is connected to the move to 3rd base (along with more experience at the major league level).

and Yes!!!
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  #109  
Old 07-08-2019, 04:23 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I'll take Moncada's 80 point OPS advantage over Machado at 3rd while saving the $30M/season to address other problems.

I think a big part of his succcess this season (and long term) is connected to the move to 3rd base (along with more experience at the major league level).
Except the trade-off would have been Machado vs. Yolmer, not Machado vs. Moncada...

As for the idea of using the $30 million to plug two holes instead of one, that is exactly the type of thing the White Sox should avoid, not embrace. Signing one Manny Machado is a better strategy than two players who are half as good. Look at what happened the last time we did that. Instead of snagging a guy like Justin Upton for $22 million AAV, we get Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera for a combined $26 million AAV. Upton has had a floor of 1.9 WAR since he signed, which occurred in 2016, his first season after switching leagues. After that, he had a fantastic 5.8 WAR in 2017 and a really good 3.8 WAR in 2018. Meanwhile, the $42 million committed to Melky netted seasons of 1.4 and 2.5 WAR in 2015 and 2016, a partial season of 0.8 WAR in 2017, and two fizzled-out low-minors pitchers. Add in LaRoche’s -0.8 WAR for $12 million in 2015, and we can see how flawed the strategy is. For the most part, the high-end player like Upton has a floor that can provide nearly same level of value as the cheaper player’s ceiling. Meanwhile, the cheaper player’s floor has a possibility of being replacement-level.

Any attempt to describe this past offseason as anything other than a missed opportunity is futile.
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