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  #91  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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The 8 years and $240 million figures do have precedents, though. The mega-deals signed by guys like Jon Lester, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke all took them to at least age 35 (Sale) or 36 (everyone else on the list). Greinke even got his age-37 season secured in his deal. 8 years would put Gerritt Cole at age 36.

As for AAV, I don’t think Cole will get $30 million, but Price, Greinke, Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander have all reached that AAV.
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  #92  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:39 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Just because they were unwilling to sign Machado to one of the richest deals in MLB history does not mean that they are only going to be signing reclamation projects. There are plenty of players who make somewhere between Machado's current contract and whatever Cueto's next contract will be that are solid contributing players.

And if Cole is going to be getting 8 years and $240 million, I agree the Sox will pass, as they should. I'm pretty sure that would be the largest contract ever given out to a pitcher, and it's way too much risk to tie up into one player at a volatile position. I highly doubt any team will offer anywhere in that neighborhood though, in terms of years or AAV.



I'm saying 8 / $240 million because Cole is on the low end of the ace spectrum. The in between where the White Sox deals may be if they do end up spending is why I'm worried. There's no one under Cole that is going to be that difference maker for the rotation short of a high upside guy who's been down for a few years and has a magic season for us. That's the White Sox's biggest problem in a nut shell. They know they need to bring in stars to supplement, but they only ever spend half on the dollar and pray they get the miracle superstar production from also-rans and journeymen.
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  #93  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:45 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Danks was such a sad story. What that guy could have been if he did not have the shoulder capsule tear.

For all the hooplah on Tommy John, I still say the Capsule Tear is the career widow maker. Danks is arguable the most successful pitch ever post that surgery, with Julio Urias having a chance to top him.
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  #94  
Old 06-21-2019, 03:34 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Danks was such a sad story. What that guy could have been if he did not have the shoulder capsule tear.

For all the hooplah on Tommy John, I still say the Capsule Tear is the career widow maker. Danks is arguable the most successful pitch ever post that surgery, with Julio Urias having a chance to top him.

Johan Santana pitched to a 4.85 ERA over 117 innings after coming back from a capsule tear, which was pretty on par with what Danks was doing. Santana just decided to call it quits a lot sooner.
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  #95  
Old 06-21-2019, 03:38 PM
asindc asindc is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
We donít need a report. Machado signed a contract with the Padres guaranteeing him 10 years and $300 million. The White Sox offered Machado a contract guaranteeing 8 years and $250 million with 2 option years. The actual contract is the report.
You canít dismiss the 2 option years as if they didnít get offered or would not mean anything if they came into play.
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  #96  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:19 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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You canít dismiss the 2 option years as if they didnít get offered or would not mean anything if they came into play.
Sure you can. And Machado did exactly that. He chose a guarantee over penny-pinching, risk-hedging ďmaybe money.Ē
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  #97  
Old 06-21-2019, 04:22 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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My biggest concern is that $30 million/year free agent will either never come, or it'll be a short term deal for someone not good enough. Because unless it's a long term agreement, $30 million on just ANY player doesn't fill the gaps quite the way that's necessary for a title.

I hope that if the White Sox sign a $30 million-a-year contract, it's with a better hitter than Machado. I would actually be disappointed if Jimenez isn't within a couple of years a better hitter than Machado, and I would be disappointed if Moncada and Vaughn don't develop into better hitters than Machado.

No one in baseball believed Machado was worth the contract he got from the Padres. His contract wasn't determined by the marketplace. It was determined by the Padres deciding they were going to sign Machado on his terms when no other team wanted would do so.

I'm not disappointed the White Sox didn't sign a $300 million contract for the sake of signing a $300 million contract.
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  #98  
Old 06-21-2019, 06:55 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc;
You canít dismiss the 2 option years as if they didnít get offered or would not mean anything if they came into play. .

If they're not a player option, yeah...that's kind of the point. It's not guaranteed money, and it's laughable at the back end of a long commitment. The only guarantee is that they won't be picked up and he's not getting that money.
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  #99  
Old 06-21-2019, 06:57 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I hope that if the White Sox sign a $30 million-a-year contract, it's with a better hitter than Machado. I would actually be disappointed if Jimenez isn't within a couple of years a better hitter than Machado, and I would be disappointed if Moncada and Vaughn don't develop into better hitters than Machado.

No one in baseball believed Machado was worth the contract he got from the Padres. His contract wasn't determined by the marketplace. It was determined by the Padres deciding they were going to sign Machado on his terms when no other team wanted would do so.

I'm not disappointed the White Sox didn't sign a $300 million contract for the sake of signing a $300 million contract.

Better hitters than Machado aren't going to come that cheap anymore. This was yet another reset of the market.

.800+ OPS defensive studs at 3B like Machado aren't really anything to scoff at. While I don't agree with your argument against Machado, I'd just like to point out that the handful of better hitters are gonna cost a ton more than Machado's investment if they hit the open market.
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  #100  
Old 06-21-2019, 07:46 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I hope that if the White Sox sign a $30 million-a-year contract, it's with a better hitter than Machado. I would actually be disappointed if Jimenez isn't within a couple of years a better hitter than Machado, and I would be disappointed if Moncada and Vaughn don't develop into better hitters than Machado.

No one in baseball believed Machado was worth the contract he got from the Padres. His contract wasn't determined by the marketplace. It was determined by the Padres deciding they were going to sign Machado on his terms when no other team wanted would do so.

I'm not disappointed the White Sox didn't sign a $300 million contract for the sake of signing a $300 million contract.
People seem to think all the Sox had to do was offer Machado $300M and he would come here. I believe he still would have selected SD over us if the $$$ were equal.
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  #101  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:30 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Better hitters than Machado aren't going to come that cheap anymore. This was yet another reset of the market.

.800+ OPS defensive studs at 3B like Machado aren't really anything to scoff at. While I don't agree with your argument against Machado, I'd just like to point out that the handful of better hitters are gonna cost a ton more than Machado's investment if they hit the open market.
Hanging on to your hitting talent will be more expensive as well. While I like Machado's defense, I don't think he is being overrated as a hitter, but I don't attend the church of OPS. The reality is that signing Machado to $30 million a year through 2028 will limit the team's ability to hang on to players they are developing. If Jimenez blossoms to be a substantially better offensive player than Machado, which I believe is possible, he is only under team control through 2025 at $18.5 million in his final year. If he's worth keeping, he would cost more than the $32 million Machado is due that year from the Padres (although Machado has an opt-out option before that). As things now stand, Moncada could become a free agent befor the 2024 season. If he is breaking out, he could be looking at more than Machodo's $32 million just to stay with the team. That's not even taking into consideration the cost of the pitching that will be necessary to seriously contend. You are going to have to extend the pitching you develop and spend money on other pitching. If Giolito really is all that, he could be hitting free agency with Moncado if you don't extend them, or trade them to kick off another rebuild.

If the Sox had solid starting pitching in place and under control, they might be able to overpay Machado (and Machado is clearly being overpaid, not establishing a market except in the eyes of agents and pundits). Not even the Orioles had any intention of committing a rebuild around Machado.

The only way Machado's contract doesn't become a burden is if White Sox prospects don't reach his level. That is the future I fear because it would be more than halfway to the 20-year plan.
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  #102  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:43 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
For five years instead of four...
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Not to mention that Danks deal was when Buerhle signed a much, much larger deal to leave.
That's fine. It at least shows that they are willing to move past their "3 years only for pitchers" stance that Jerry had for years. Also the total amount they are guaranteeing is what matters most to Jerry. See the Machado situation.

The $65 mil contract back in '11 with MLB salary inflation is worth $91 mil if it was given out in '19, and was worth $80 mil back in '15 (more overall money than Shields got that year) https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ague-baseball/

That was given out during a time when their budget was tight. I think with their current payroll flexibility they would be willing to go the necessary length and AAV for at least one of the top three SPs available this offseason.
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  #103  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:57 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
That's fine. It at least shows that they are willing to move past their "3 years only for pitchers" stance that Jerry had for years. Also the total amount they are guaranteeing is what matters most to Jerry. See the Machado situation.

The $65 mil contract back in '11 with MLB salary inflation is worth $91 mil if it was given out in '19, and was worth $80 mil back in '15 (more overall money than Shields got that year) https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ague-baseball/

That was given out during a time when their budget was tight. I think with their current payroll flexibility they would be willing to go the necessary length and AAV for at least one of the top three SPs available this offseason.
The problem is that getting the 2nd-best or 3rd-best starter next offseason is just a waste of money. I want no part of Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler, or Dallas Keuchel.
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  #104  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:02 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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The problem is that getting the 2nd-best or 3rd-best starter next offseason is just a waste of money. I want no part of Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler, or Dallas Keuchel.
You might be right, we will have to see how those guys finish out their seasons. Bumgarner is the only one that might be worth getting if he finishes strong and you get him for a 3-4 year deal with the expectation of him being a number 3 guy. But, yes it is a weak FA class for SPs. Ultimately I don't think the Sox need to acquire an ace, just a dependable 32 start pitcher to slot in the middle of the rotation between the big arm righties. If Hamels will take a 1-2 year deal, then he might also be worth taking a look at.
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  #105  
Old 06-22-2019, 07:44 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Hanging on to your hitting talent will be more expensive as well. While I like Machado's defense, I don't think he is being overrated as a hitter, but I don't attend the church of OPS. The reality is that signing Machado to $30 million a year through 2028 will limit the team's ability to hang on to players they are developing. If Jimenez blossoms to be a substantially better offensive player than Machado, which I believe is possible, he is only under team control through 2025 at $18.5 million in his final year. If he's worth keeping, he would cost more than the $32 million Machado is due that year from the Padres (although Machado has an opt-out option before that). As things now stand, Moncada could become a free agent befor the 2024 season. If he is breaking out, he could be looking at more than Machodo's $32 million just to stay with the team. That's not even taking into consideration the cost of the pitching that will be necessary to seriously contend. You are going to have to extend the pitching you develop and spend money on other pitching. If Giolito really is all that, he could be hitting free agency with Moncado if you don't extend them, or trade them to kick off another rebuild.

If the Sox had solid starting pitching in place and under control, they might be able to overpay Machado (and Machado is clearly being overpaid, not establishing a market except in the eyes of agents and pundits). Not even the Orioles had any intention of committing a rebuild around Machado.

The only way Machado's contract doesn't become a burden is if White Sox prospects don't reach his level. That is the future I fear because it would be more than halfway to the 20-year plan.



It is infinitely easier to sign stars to big money when you're current roster is cheap than it is to sign stars when your roster is in late arbitration. In a best case scenario, we're still not signing everyone and likely will need to do maneuvering to remain competitive. But the idea is to lock in some big stars from free agency while your roster also costs nothing around them for the first 3-4 years. Because really that's the window. Waiting until everyone fully develops and is ready for arbitration/extensions/free agency is how you start another rebuild in 5 years. We're looking at what? 2021 currently for competing? Machado on that team is not a problem. But in 2023 and 2024, we'd be making decisions anyway on who to keep, who to try to extend, and who to trade for depth. So I get your point, but in actuality Machado really doesn't affect that all that much because you're really looking at him over one player (provided you don't trade Machado). But his lack of presence DOES affect those couple of prime years where everyone else is cheap and good, and how good we are in the the prime years of this rebuild is capped by the lack of ownership's willingness to use free agency to effectively maximize roster talent. Next year's crop is already barren of a Machado level player, and as we get closer to arbitration signing someone to a monster deal in free agency just gets less and less likely. Which is, again, why I think this rebuild will be fun but has very little chance of leading to a title.

Last edited by blandman; 06-22-2019 at 08:36 PM.
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