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  #1  
Old 07-24-2019, 01:46 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Default Zero...Point...Zero

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, that is our “Doyle Number,” which attempts to compute how much projected future WAR teams should be willing to spend at the deadline to gain 1 WAR in 2019. Basically, 1.0 would be the break-even point, where a team is really at a crossroads whether or not they should buy at the deadline.

As one of only seven teams with a 0.0 Doyle Number, we should not even think about doing anything other than aggressively selling. All future WAR is more valuable than present WAR. 0.0 means no standing pat. 0.0 means taking any respectable offer for expiring and nearly-expiring deals, even if it means breaking up the sewing circle.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ne/?yptr=yahoo
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Old 07-24-2019, 04:28 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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I tried posting this earlier today but for some reason my post wouldn’t post.

I agree with the premise that we should sell, but I’m also pragmatic and strategic about it.

It wouldn’t make sense, for instance, to sell McCann for an A-ball pitcher, even if he is ranked (for instance) in the back half of the Top 100 prospects. Such a pitcher would be unlikely to help us for several years, if at all.

However, if the Braves want to give us Ian Anderson for Aaron Bummer, then I’m jumping around on one foot while playing the flute in excitement to accept that offer.
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Old 07-24-2019, 05:14 PM
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A new stat!
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  #4  
Old 07-25-2019, 12:59 AM
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A new stat!
Oh boy.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:28 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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A new stat!
Not gonna lie, I’m really looking forward to the first time I can say “Your argument is invalid because Doyle Number!” and watch the Nick Madrigal Welcoming Committee lose its collective mind.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:03 AM
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I'm sure I'll regret asking, but what does Madrigal have to do with it?
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:38 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is online now
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Not gonna lie, I’m really looking forward to the first time I can say “Your argument is invalid because Doyle Number!” and watch the Nick Madrigal Welcoming Committee lose its collective mind.
I would like to think ALL Sox fans will be eagerly "welcoming" Nick Madrigal to our team when he's called up - traditionalists, stat heads and everyone in between. Maybe we can save the booing until after we see what he can do for us.

Last edited by Hitmen77; 07-26-2019 at 10:51 AM.
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:46 AM
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I'm sure I'll regret asking, but what does Madrigal have to do with it?
Never too early to rip on a guy currently sporting a .900 OPS at Birmingham.

I predict that Madrigal will become a fan and clubhouse favorite (and I don't mean because he'll do silly things like dump gatorade on himself), but that he'll always be considered a weak link on the team to some fans because of his physical stature. It all begins and ends with the 20 HR mark, period. GG defense, good base running, impeccable fundamentals, clutch hitting are all out the window. We're looking at Yolmer 2.0 as his ceiling and that's it.
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:51 AM
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I think Madrigal is going to get more national attention than we think, given that he's essentially a throwback to pre-3 true outcomes baseball. People pining for the old days will immediately love him, new age stat heads will poke and prod him with spreadsheets, and he'll be the subject of a lot of debate and arguments as to how valuable he actually is to the White Sox.

Which is good, because getting people to pay attention to the White Sox is a good thing.
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:54 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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A lot of the older fans here are skeptical of modern statistical analysis of baseball. Because of their age, a lot of these people also are big Nellie Fox fans. And because they are big Nellie Fox fans, they are also big Nick Madrigal fans because...well, look at their stats and you can see why.

That's why I associate Nick Madrigal with people who are stats skeptics. It takes a few steps but you can see it once it's laid out.
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
I would like to think ALL Sox fans will be eagerly "welcoming" Nick Madrigal to our team when he's called up - traditionalists, stat heads and everyone in between. Maybe we can save the booing until after we see what he can do for us.
What fun is that?!?!?!?
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Old 07-26-2019, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
I think Madrigal is going to get more national attention than we think, given that he's essentially a throwback to pre-3 true outcomes baseball. People pining for the old days will immediately love him, new age stat heads will poke and prod him with spreadsheets, and he'll be the subject of a lot of debate and arguments as to how valuable he actually is to the White Sox.

Which is good, because getting people to pay attention to the White Sox is a good thing.
This is pretty much how I feel about it. It'll be a good, healthy debate and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do on the South Side. He's a very interesting player to follow. Aside from power, most of his skills appear to be at an elite level (not just good, but really good). But does hitting only about say 10 HRs a year wipe all that out and make him basically another Leury? That would be a bit of an extreme viewpoint and it's not going to be so cut and dried. IMO, fans can appreciate Madrigal's talents without being stat "haters".

It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up hitting a decent number of doubles in the majors. Also, who knows - maybe the juiced MLB ball and playing home games at GRF will mean he'll get a fair share of HRs too. At any rate, I think it's premature to think he's just going to be only a station-to-station type of player.

Last edited by Hitmen77; 07-26-2019 at 11:30 AM.
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  #13  
Old 07-26-2019, 01:24 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Never too early to rip on a guy currently sporting a .900 OPS at Birmingham.
I’m not ripping the player. I’m ripping the fans of his who dream of Madrigal, despite never having played a single game in the majors, spearheading a paradigm shift that makes singles and bunts and grounders to the right side make a triumphant comeback.

Meanwhile, we’re 25th in the league in home runs, ahead of only the Giants, Pirates, Tigers, Royals, and Marlins. That’s the real problem with this team, folks.
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  #14  
Old 07-26-2019, 01:32 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Meanwhile, we’re 25th in the league in home runs, ahead of only the Giants, Pirates, Tigers, Royals, and Marlins. That’s the real problem with this team, folks.
Pitching/hitter's park/juiced ball is the real problem with this team.

With Jimenez and Anderson healthy, Robert in CF, and power upgrades at DH and RF, this team will produce tons of home runs.

Madrigal just needs to get on base and hit his share of doubles and triples.
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  #15  
Old 07-26-2019, 01:44 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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GG defense, good base running, impeccable fundamentals, clutch hitting are all out the window. We're looking at Yolmer 2.0 as his ceiling and that's it.
Not true.

I don’t get where this idea was birthed that home run hitting has anything to do with a player’s baserunning or defensive value. If anything, I think defense—especially outfield defense—is valued more than ever nowadays. Infield defense may be a little less valued than before, but infield shifts have a lot to do with that.
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