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  #91  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:04 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
I know it's unpopular among many to cite to intangibles as a reason for making a baseball decision. But as long as the game is played by humans and not by cyborgs, I think it's a mistake to overlook what Abreu brings to the team. It's a factor.
Fine. Let him get “playoff experience” on another team this October and bring him back.
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  #92  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:27 PM
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Fine. Let him get “playoff experience” on another team this October and bring him back.
There's only one of the three main players mentioned in trade speculation that can be brought back without trading for him - Abreu. Both Colome and McCann have arbitration years left. IF the Sox think of them as potential pieces for next year and/or beyond they should not trade them, period.
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  #93  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:46 PM
guillensdisciple guillensdisciple is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
I know it's unpopular among many to cite to intangibles as a reason for making a baseball decision. But as long as the game is played by humans and not by cyborgs, I think it's a mistake to overlook what Abreu brings to the team. It's a factor.
Funny enough, modern-day analytics can incorporate x-factors in certain circumstances.
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  #94  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:11 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Trade value is defined by what value he would bring back in a trade, so yes, that is exactly how it works. There are circumstantial factors that may alter things slightly in one direction or another, but none of the thing you describe are relevant enough here that the return on a Colome trade would drastically change. Colome is good, but he's not considered an impact arm. If you think he's bringing back anybody that would rank in the top 10 in our system, I think you'd be disappointed.

Soria is actually a good comparison, but your description of Medeiros doesn't really match reality. Avilan is a solid lefty reliever. Medeiros is a guy who has a shot at one day being a solid lefty reliever. Here's what was written from a scouting perspective about Medeiros at the time of the trade. Not super bullish. Entering the 2018 season, Medeiros was ranked 21st and 23rd by Fangraphs and MLB.com on Milwaukee's prospect list. Avilan was probably more valuable, actually.

The Chapman trade has little bearing on Colome. Chapman was one of the top 3 or 4 relievers in baseball at the time, and certainly the best one on the market. He immediately became the closer on the best team in baseball upon being traded. Anybody who trades for Colome this year almost certainly using him as a closer.

We need to temper our expectations as to what these players are worth. Colome is good, but he's far from elite. Among qualified relief pitchers in 2019, he's 29th in ERA, 116th in K/9, and 51st in BB/9. Meanwhile, he's 18th in LOB% and leading the league in BABIP--so it's actually quite fortunate that he's been so good thus far. Absolutely none of that will be lost on any team trading for him.
What a guy was traded for a season or 2 ago is not the same return as what they would be getting back now the vast majority of time, including this case. Player's values fluctuate depending on how they are performing, years of control, salary, etc. Those things change from year to year.

Colome has been extremely good this year without any smoke and mirrors. His K's are a bit down from the last few seasons, but the stuff is still there. Any scout, executive or even fan can see that. These guys are valuable at the trade deadline, especially in a year light on legit back end arms.

The Chapman reference was not to compare him to Colome, but to show you that players trade value changes over the years. Tons more examples.

If he is traded it will likely be for a guy that lands in the Sox top 12, assuming he continues to pitch near this level over the coming weeks. The Sox have an extremely top heavy system currently with question marks all over the back half of the top 10.
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  #95  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:17 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
There's only one of the three main players mentioned in trade speculation that can be brought back without trading for him - Abreu. Both Colome and McCann have arbitration years left. IF the Sox think of them as potential pieces for next year and/or beyond they should not trade them, period.
Abreu is the guy I was referencing.
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  #96  
Old 06-19-2019, 06:22 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
The Chapman reference was not to compare him to Colome, but to show you that players trade value changes over the years. Tons more examples.
Matt Karchner for Jon Garland is a one of my favorite trades and a good example to try to emulate.
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  #97  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Abreu is the guy I was referencing.
Apologies. I misread your post and my brain swapped the word "them" for the word "him" both times.
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  #98  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:25 AM
slavko slavko is online now
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I just have that funny feeling that they traded a good player for Colome to use him, not to trade him again, esp for a mid-level prospect who won't be able to get here before the rebuild is starting to get dangerous.

Now, if they had signed him as a FA...

Betcha a lemon cookie they keep him.
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  #99  
Old 06-19-2019, 01:59 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Fine. Let him get “playoff experience” on another team this October and bring him back.
If Abreu says he wants to come back no matter what for sure and will resign in the offseason, sure, go for it. I have no problem with that. But it's rarely that simple. Maybe he has a hell of a playoff run and gets way more interest than we'd expect come November. Maybe the lack of exclusive dialogue between now and the end of the season (it's tampering with any other team) means he ends up getting a better offer elsewhere. Who knows, maybe he'll feel disrespected if they deal him after all this talk about how important he is and how much they want to keep him. In that sense, it's also about risk management--if the Sox feel as strongly as they've said about wanting him to be around, it's perfectly reasonable that they wouldn't necessarily want to take that chance, especially if the difference is acquiring a guy who probably doesn't sniff the majors on a good team.

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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
What a guy was traded for a season or 2 ago is not the same return as what they would be getting back now the vast majority of time, including this case. Player's values fluctuate depending on how they are performing, years of control, salary, etc. Those things change from year to year.

Colome has been extremely good this year without any smoke and mirrors. His K's are a bit down from the last few seasons, but the stuff is still there. Any scout, executive or even fan can see that. These guys are valuable at the trade deadline, especially in a year light on legit back end arms.

The Chapman reference was not to compare him to Colome, but to show you that players trade value changes over the years. Tons more examples.

If he is traded it will likely be for a guy that lands in the Sox top 12, assuming he continues to pitch near this level over the coming weeks. The Sox have an extremely top heavy system currently with question marks all over the back half of the top 10.
It wasn't two years ago, it's two examples within the past 12 and a half months, with about 6 or 7 months worth of baseball. It's very relevant. Trade value doesn't significantly increase unless front offices have a reason to believe the player has significantly gotten better, especially since we're talking about getting him for a season and a third rather than for two or two and a half. And if you look at the underlying metrics that most front offices these days use to evaluate pitchers--FIP, velocity, pitch quality, batted ball results, etc, Colome has actually been worse than in the past. Again, he's been lucky to have gotten the results he's gotten so far. Even if the stuff might still be there for the most part, the point is that at the end of the day, that stuff is good but not great--not anything that gets you a prospect with more than a marginal chance of being an average or above big leaguer. That being the case, as with Abreu, I'd much rather hang on to him for a run next year. As we should well know by now, effective relievers don't grow on trees.

Last edited by mzh; 06-19-2019 at 02:06 PM.
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  #100  
Old 06-19-2019, 02:47 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Originally Posted by slavko View Post
I just have that funny feeling that they traded a good player for Colome to use him, not to trade him again, esp for a mid-level prospect who won't be able to get here before the rebuild is starting to get dangerous.

Now, if they had signed him as a FA...

Betcha a lemon cookie they keep him.
I hope they keep Colome and Abreu (unless some team offers a package that can't be refused). And I doubt that will happen.
The reason I want to keep these guys is it's important to develop a winning attitude. This will help our kids develop. Plus if we demonstrate that we're a team on the up-swing, we'll may be more likely to attract FAs.
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  #101  
Old 06-19-2019, 03:14 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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It wasn't two years ago, it's two examples within the past 12 and a half months, with about 6 or 7 months worth of baseball. It's very relevant. Trade value doesn't significantly increase unless front offices have a reason to believe the player has significantly gotten better, especially since we're talking about getting him for a season and a third rather than for two or two and a half. And if you look at the underlying metrics that most front offices these days use to evaluate pitchers--FIP, velocity, pitch quality, batted ball results, etc, Colome has actually been worse than in the past. Again, he's been lucky to have gotten the results he's gotten so far. Even if the stuff might still be there for the most part, the point is that at the end of the day, that stuff is good but not great--not anything that gets you a prospect with more than a marginal chance of being an average or above big leaguer. That being the case, as with Abreu, I'd much rather hang on to him for a run next year. As we should well know by now, effective relievers don't grow on trees.
Yes, FO's will be looking at everything when evaluating players, but results do matter. Especially when it comes to a closer. There are still spots where he would continue to close as well, and I think he will continue to see great results in the 8th inning if that's where he is slotted. But, Colome's repertoire is a unique one with his 95-96 MPH four seam, 91-92 MPH cutter, and his mid 80s sharp slider. It's impressive stuff he attacks hitters with. He has heavily used his cutter, which typically isn't a strikeout pitch, leading to more contact. Mariano Rivera mostly threw cutters as well and didn't have an impressive K/9 (career 8.2). Obviously Colome is not Rivera, but you see my point. Not every pitcher has their value tied up in swings and misses. It is clear that Colome isn't lucking into 15/15 in saves or even getting outs in general. He has a confidence about him too, which doesn't show up in stats that is greatly needed for late inning success.

If indeed teams are only willing to offer modest returns for Colome, then it definitely makes sense to hold on to him or package him with Bummer and or Abreu for an excitable return. However, I think teams will scout him and see what we have all been seeing this year, and view him as a top option for the 8th or 9th inning. His extra year of control, the lack of other big names available, combined with the Sox having leverage because they don't have to trade him, will drive up his price. Will be interesting to see how the next month or so unfolds.
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  #102  
Old 06-19-2019, 03:26 PM
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The reason I want to keep these guys is it's important to develop a winning attitude. This will help our kids develop. Plus if we demonstrate that we're a team on the up-swing, we'll may be more likely to attract FAs.
This to me is the stuff of sports radio calls. Free agents don't need to look at a team's prior year's record to determine whether that team is on the upswing - they can look at the team's roster as constructed and listen to the pitch of what the team plans to do in 2020 and 2021.
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