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  #76  
Old 06-16-2019, 04:01 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Yes but it means we have to find a closer for next year when the team should be ready to make a run at the playoffs.
That's actually not too hard these days.
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  #77  
Old 06-16-2019, 04:02 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by XplodingScorbord View Post
Man, that poor guy is going from a solid closer to a low end middle reliever in the span of 1.5 years. Sucks to be him. Glad we havenít extended him. Appreciate your foresight!
65% of players who start the season as closer do not finish it as closer. And the two-year cycle is something like 80%. This is why you trade Colome.
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  #78  
Old 06-16-2019, 04:14 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
That's actually not too hard these days.
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
65% of players who start the season as closer do not finish it as closer. And the two-year cycle is something like 80%. This is why you trade Colome.

Exactly. It's not hard to get a top end closer if you want to pay him.

I'm not even sure Colome was ever top tier. He put up a lot of saves, but he was never really one of the top pen arms out there. He certainly isn't now. He's serviceable. But it could literally fall apart at any point.
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  #79  
Old 06-16-2019, 04:14 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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So you want the team to be in perpetual rebuilding mode and never stock up on the quality players needed to reach the playoffs.
The talent is Anderson, Eloy, Giolito, and Moncada. Anyone else is replaceable.
The Sox control him for just another year. He's not young, he does not have great stuff. What he's having is "a year." This org has exactly ONE dependable starting pitcher and they should be working to fix that (without trading the young players). They'll be in a perpetual rebuild (or failed rebuild) if they don't fix that.
My only trepidation is that if they move him, they might just trade for another reliever in December.

The Sox have done a good job with the top end of the bullpen this year. The bottom 1/2 is not very good though.
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  #80  
Old 06-16-2019, 04:18 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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The Sox control him for just another year. He's not young, he does not have great stuff. What he's having is "a year." And in case no one has noticed, this org has exactly ONE dependable starting pitcher.
My only trepidation is that if they move him, they might just trade for another one in December.

Damn...didn't even realize he still has a year of arbitration.


I'd argue with regression and the trends in year 3 arbitration, it would make way more sense to non-tender Colome this offseason and sign a better reliever long term. It would probably come at a lower annual salary than what arbitration will bring.
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  #81  
Old 06-16-2019, 05:10 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Damn...didn't even realize he still has a year of arbitration.


I'd argue with regression and the trends in year 3 arbitration, it would make way more sense to non-tender Colome this offseason and sign a better reliever long term. It would probably come at a lower annual salary than what arbitration will bring.
Non-tendering doesnít make sense. Aviís non-tender burned our asses pretty badly. With relief pitching being in such high demand in this day and age, someone, somewhere, will give you something for a single year of Colomť.
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  #82  
Old 06-18-2019, 01:59 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Non-tendering doesnít make sense. Aviís non-tender burned our asses pretty badly. With relief pitching being in such high demand in this day and age, someone, somewhere, will give you something for a single year of Colomť.
The thing is, we don't need to speculate about Colome's trade value because we know exactly what it is. He's been traded twice in the past calendar year and change, once for a 27 year old catcher with one good half-season under his belt (Narvaez) and once with Denard Span for two nothingburger pitching prospects (although to be fair that was also a salary dump). With just one year of control left, there's no evidence you could bank on getting more than that. It's fair to disagree, but at this point I personally would rather keep him around for a team that might have a legitimate shot at contention next year. If anything, I'd hate to see a team that might otherwise have a non-minuscule shot in a weak division get torpedoed by another ****ty bullpen.
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  #83  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:17 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
That's actually not too hard these days.
I'd be careful here... I think a closer is a little analogous to an NFL kicker. The difference between a solid closer and a dumpster fire is only a few blown saves here and there, but boy do you notice their absence when you don't have one. It's not quite as simple as plugging in another reliever with a nice ERA. Probably the first (of very many) things that sent the otherwise promising 2011 season off the rails was Matt Thornton picking up 4 (!) blown saves within the first couple weeks of the season.

Overall, in terms of selling on players like Colome and Abreu, I'm wary of continuing to kick the can down the road forever. Sometimes it's okay to pay a little bit of a premium for consistency, leadership, and known quantities. I could very well be wrong but I'd rather err on the side of assuming Abreu's production from 2020-2022 will probably be worth more than the expected value of the low minor leaguer with a 10% shot of even making the big leagues they'd get for him.
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  #84  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:28 PM
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I'd be careful here... I think a closer is a little analogous to an NFL kicker. The difference between a solid closer and a dumpster fire is only a few blown saves here and there, but boy do you notice their absence when you don't have one. It's not quite as simple as plugging in another reliever with a nice ERA. Probably the first (of very many) things that sent the otherwise promising 2011 season off the rails was Matt Thornton picking up 4 (!) blown saves within the first couple weeks of the season.

Overall, in terms of selling on players like Colome and Abreu, I'm wary of continuing to kick the can down the road forever. Sometimes it's okay to pay a little bit of a premium for consistency, leadership, and known quantities. I could very well be wrong but I'd rather err on the side of assuming Abreu's production from 2020-2022 will probably be worth more than the expected value of the low minor leaguer with a 10% shot of even making the big leagues they'd get for him.
I agree. I don't mind them listening to offers, but if nothing of serious value is offered, I'd personally prefer they keep them around.
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  #85  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:08 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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I'd be careful here... I think a closer is a little analogous to an NFL kicker. The difference between a solid closer and a dumpster fire is only a few blown saves here and there, but boy do you notice their absence when you don't have one. It's not quite as simple as plugging in another reliever with a nice ERA. Probably the first (of very many) things that sent the otherwise promising 2011 season off the rails was Matt Thornton picking up 4 (!) blown saves within the first couple weeks of the season.

Overall, in terms of selling on players like Colome and Abreu, I'm wary of continuing to kick the can down the road forever. Sometimes it's okay to pay a little bit of a premium for consistency, leadership, and known quantities. I could very well be wrong but I'd rather err on the side of assuming Abreu's production from 2020-2022 will probably be worth more than the expected value of the low minor leaguer with a 10% shot of even making the big leagues they'd get for him.
Fine. Sign Abreu over the winter.

I have no idea why people keep thinking that an Abreu trade guarantees anything other than a 2-3 month absence and the return from the trade.

The White Sox will have the exact same control, or lack thereof, of Jose Abreu returning in 2020 whether or not they trade him in 2019. All the trade does is guarantee that you donít lose him for nothing.
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  #86  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:33 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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The thing is, we don't need to speculate about Colome's trade value because we know exactly what it is. He's been traded twice in the past calendar year and change, once for a 27 year old catcher with one good half-season under his belt (Narvaez) and once with Denard Span for two nothingburger pitching prospects (although to be fair that was also a salary dump). With just one year of control left, there's no evidence you could bank on getting more than that. It's fair to disagree, but at this point I personally would rather keep him around for a team that might have a legitimate shot at contention next year. If anything, I'd hate to see a team that might otherwise have a non-minuscule shot in a weak division get torpedoed by another ****ty bullpen.
We don't know exactly what his trade value is, that's not how it works. A lot of trade value resides in current production. He was traded from Tampa to Seattle when his WHIP was 1.5, had an ERA over 4, and an ERA+ of 102. Seattle was buying low. From Seattle to the Sox, he wasn't a closer, but pitched a lot better in late innings recouping his value some. Since coming to the Sox, he's been excellent. Is perfect in his save chances and has a 198 ERA+ with a tiny 0.69 WHIP.

Also keep in mind is there is a big difference in the landscape of late inning relievers now, compared to in the offseason when there were 15 plus of them available. It's widely talked about on this forum and baseball in general on the volatility of relievers year to year, and one way teams protect themselves is by acquiring relievers at or near the deadline that are in the midst of good seasons. They are willing to pay for back end arms that are performing at an elite level that season.

A few examples off the top of my head of relievers gaining value:

Joakim Soria was acquired by the Sox for Luis Avilan (journey man reliever). Then pitched well for the Sox and was traded for Medeiros (former 1st rounder with an ERA around 3.00 in AA at the time of trade).

Aroldis Chapman was acquired by the Yankees for a package of non top 100 prospects from the Reds, flipped him a year or two later to the Cubs as a rental for Gleyber Torres (top 10 prospect).

Colome alone should bring back a top 150 prospect. They should be targeting young pitching in return that is close to being MLB ready. ATL, LAD, CHC, HOU, PHI match up well.
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  #87  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:55 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Overall, in terms of selling on players like Colome and Abreu, I'm wary of continuing to kick the can down the road forever.
Trading guys whose contracts are up in 2 seasons or less is not kicking the can down the road. It's being realistic.
Trading Eloy, Moncada, or Giolito is kicking the can down the road.
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  #88  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:28 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Fine. Sign Abreu over the winter.

I have no idea why people keep thinking that an Abreu trade guarantees anything other than a 2-3 month absence and the return from the trade.

The White Sox will have the exact same control, or lack thereof, of Jose Abreu returning in 2020 whether or not they trade him in 2019. All the trade does is guarantee that you donít lose him for nothing.
That's fair. It worked for the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. That being said, I don't know what the dynamic between the team and Abreu is. I imagine that if they don't do what you suggest, there's a good reason for it. Players are human, after all. Treating them purely as commodities is probably pushing the idea of pure efficiency to the point of ultimately being inefficient. Say what you want, but team chemistry and leadership quality are both real things that do have an impact on wins and losses, however big or small.

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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
We don't know exactly what his trade value is, that's not how it works. A lot of trade value resides in current production. He was traded from Tampa to Seattle when his WHIP was 1.5, had an ERA over 4, and an ERA+ of 102. Seattle was buying low. From Seattle to the Sox, he wasn't a closer, but pitched a lot better in late innings recouping his value some. Since coming to the Sox, he's been excellent. Is perfect in his save chances and has a 198 ERA+ with a tiny 0.69 WHIP.

Also keep in mind is there is a big difference in the landscape of late inning relievers now, compared to in the offseason when there were 15 plus of them available. It's widely talked about on this forum and baseball in general on the volatility of relievers year to year, and one way teams protect themselves is by acquiring relievers at or near the deadline that are in the midst of good seasons. They are willing to pay for back end arms that are performing at an elite level that season.

A few examples off the top of my head of relievers gaining value:

Joakim Soria was acquired by the Sox for Luis Avilan (journey man reliever). Then pitched well for the Sox and was traded for Medeiros (former 1st rounder with an ERA around 3.00 in AA at the time of trade).

Aroldis Chapman was acquired by the Yankees for a package of non top 100 prospects from the Reds, flipped him a year or two later to the Cubs as a rental for Gleyber Torres (top 10 prospect).

Colome alone should bring back a top 150 prospect. They should be targeting young pitching in return that is close to being MLB ready. ATL, LAD, CHC, HOU, PHI match up well.
Trade value is defined by what value he would bring back in a trade, so yes, that is exactly how it works. There are circumstantial factors that may alter things slightly in one direction or another, but none of the thing you describe are relevant enough here that the return on a Colome trade would drastically change. Colome is good, but he's not considered an impact arm. If you think he's bringing back anybody that would rank in the top 10 in our system, I think you'd be disappointed.

Soria is actually a good comparison, but your description of Medeiros doesn't really match reality. Avilan is a solid lefty reliever. Medeiros is a guy who has a shot at one day being a solid lefty reliever. Here's what was written from a scouting perspective about Medeiros at the time of the trade. Not super bullish. Entering the 2018 season, Medeiros was ranked 21st and 23rd by Fangraphs and MLB.com on Milwaukee's prospect list. Avilan was probably more valuable, actually.

The Chapman trade has little bearing on Colome. Chapman was one of the top 3 or 4 relievers in baseball at the time, and certainly the best one on the market. He immediately became the closer on the best team in baseball upon being traded. Anybody who trades for Colome this year almost certainly using him as a closer.

We need to temper our expectations as to what these players are worth. Colome is good, but he's far from elite. Among qualified relief pitchers in 2019, he's 29th in ERA, 116th in K/9, and 51st in BB/9. Meanwhile, he's 18th in LOB% and leading the league in BABIP--so it's actually quite fortunate that he's been so good thus far. Absolutely none of that will be lost on any team trading for him.

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Trading guys whose contracts are up in 2 seasons or less is not kicking the can down the road. It's being realistic.
Trading Eloy, Moncada, or Giolito is kicking the can down the road.
Yes, we get it, you think this whole thing sucks and they'll never contend again. Even if this team finishes 10 games under .500, that's still a 15 game improvement over the year before. If you think that it's not realistic to go from that to a playoff contender the next year, your opinion isn't rooted in reality. The 2014 Astros and Cubs lost 90 and 89 games, respectively. Both made the playoffs in 2015.
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  #89  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:34 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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I agree. I don't mind them listening to offers, but if nothing of serious value is offered, I'd personally prefer they keep them around.
Right, and even among low-value trade returns, there is a difference between a lottery ticket and a guy whose legitimate ceiling is marginal big leaguer. At a certain point, a warm body for the sake of a warm body isn't worth losing the production and continuity Abreu brings to the table right now.
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  #90  
Old 06-18-2019, 10:13 PM
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I know it's unpopular among many to cite to intangibles as a reason for making a baseball decision. But as long as the game is played by humans and not by cyborgs, I think it's a mistake to overlook what Abreu brings to the team. It's a factor.
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