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  #151  
Old 10-10-2018, 06:40 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Not a huge one. Check their 2018 stats.
I'm not sure what metric would have MM and Anderson neck and neck defensively. Machado was pretty inarguably the worst SS in all of baseball, while Tim was likely top 10 and improving as the season went on. Machado has the worst range in MLB and even his strengths at the position (arm strength and turning the DP) aren't as strong as Tim in those areas.

And as Machado ages, he's only going to become less and less mobile.

Half of Anderson's value is his defense. You'd have to bet on Machado being an offensive monster for a long time to make up for and eclipse the damage done by significantly weakening two important defensive positions in one fell swoop.
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  #152  
Old 10-10-2018, 07:00 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica
Not a huge one. Check their 2018 stats.
Tim Anderson rebounded from a rough start to finish at exactly 0 defensive runs above average, with a 1.0 dWAR, in 2018. He was appreciably below average before the All Star break and appreciably above average after the break.

Manny Machado was 18 runs below average, with a -1.2 dWAR, when he was playing SS in Baltimore. That went up to 8 runs above average and a 1.2 dWAR in L.A., but 3 of those 8 runs were earned at 3B. All told, his work at SS rates out to -13 runs above average. He is -11 runs above average for his career when he lines up at SS.

That is not only a downgrade from Anderson, it is not even desirable production from a SS.
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  #153  
Old 10-10-2018, 10:26 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Tim Anderson rebounded from a rough start to finish at exactly 0 defensive runs above average, with a 1.0 dWAR, in 2018. He was appreciably below average before the All Star break and appreciably above average after the break.

Manny Machado was 18 runs below average, with a -1.2 dWAR, when he was playing SS in Baltimore. That went up to 8 runs above average and a 1.2 dWAR in L.A., but 3 of those 8 runs were earned at 3B. All told, his work at SS rates out to -13 runs above average. He is -11 runs above average for his career when he lines up at SS.

That is not only a downgrade from Anderson, it is not even desirable production from a SS.
Thank you for saving me a lot of typing. There's one defensive stat in particular that I think does a very good job of summing up why there's so much disagreement on Anderson's defensive ability. In 2018, Anderson made far and away more "Out Of Zone" plays than any other SS in the league. And when I say far and away, I mean he made 24 more OOZ plays than the number 2 shortstop, and the difference between him and the 4th most was the same as the difference between the 4th most and the 18th most.

This basically means that Anderson was the anti-Jeter. Does anybody else remember when Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove at SS in 2010 over Alexei Ramirez, and the argument was that Jeter made few errors and had a high fielding percentage because he couldn't even get to some grounders that most other shortstops would routinely make a play on? This is basically the reverse--Anderson may make some boneheaded errors, but he also routinely gets to balls that most other big league shortstops can't, and that ultimately has a bigger effect than booting the occasional 6-3 groundout. He makes great plays, but he also makes a lot of great plays look like they aren't great plays, if that makes sense.

I think moving him off SS would be a tremendous mistake. He has the ability to be an elite defender, and he really started to show flashes of it in the 2nd half. All it takes is cutting down on a few of those routine errors and his WAR will start going through the roof.

Machado can say he wants to play SS all he wants, but the rest of MLB is more than aware of his shortcomings there. The teams for whom he'd easily slot in at SS don't have nearly as high of a ceiling as the White Sox of the next decade do. If I'm Rick Hahn, I give him the money he wants and say take it or leave it. Be a difference maker on a potential contender, or don't. That's all he can do. But if that's what happens, I think they have as good a shot at signing him as any.
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  #154  
Old 10-10-2018, 11:06 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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I like out of zone as a metric, but its one metric. I agree Anderson has potential there, but he has to clean up to be a top every day SS. Its about more than just the amazing play. Some of that is losing, some is youth.

That said, I don't care what the OOZ says or any metric really, there is no SS even close to Simmons. Those are the instincts I think Tim lacks. Now, I am saying he lacks instincts to be an elite, top of the game SS. Does not mean he can't be very good.

But the Ramirez comparison is kind of how I feel his ceiling is. He will make plays that dazzle you, and have nights that just infuriate you. I hope I am wrong, but just kind of where my gut is on him.
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  #155  
Old 10-10-2018, 11:20 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
I'm not sure what metric would have MM and Anderson neck and neck defensively.
How about fielding percentage?

Machado .979, Anderson .967.

Double plays?

Anderson 72, Machado 73 (in fewer innings).

RF/9 (defined as 9 * (Putouts + Assists) / Innings Played)?

Anderson 3.93, Machado 3.93.

Seems neck and neck to me. Yes, I'm aware of the shortcomings of fielding stats, and I would also prefer Machado at third, but Tim Anderson's fielding is nowhere near good enough to justify a "third base or no deal" offer to Machado. Machado is a great hitter. Anderson is a bad one. If you can get a great hitter into your lineup at shortstop, you are well on your way to a championship.

Last edited by A. Cavatica; 10-10-2018 at 11:29 PM.
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  #156  
Old 10-11-2018, 08:28 AM
wxkid23 wxkid23 is offline
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Greinke could be Shields part two. His velocity is falling off the cliff. He's getting by, but in the NL.
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  #157  
Old 10-11-2018, 09:29 AM
beasly213 beasly213 is offline
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If the Sox land Machado (which I highly doubt) and he wants to play SS thats where he plays. Anderson has not earned the clout to do what Jeter did when the yanks got Arod.
Bingo. If Machado says he'll only play for the Sox if he get's to play SS then guess what? He's going to play SS. The Sox currently don't have a CF in their system, Anderson is fast, has range and a good arm. He could adjust to being an avg. CF
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  #158  
Old 10-11-2018, 09:55 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Greinke could be Shields part two. His velocity is falling off the cliff. He's getting by, but in the NL.
Agreed. I watched a lot of Greinke this season, as he was on my NL roto team. His home/road splits are significant, and he was greatly helped by the humidor in Arizona. Corbin didn't have the same splits, but also struck out batters at a 7-8% higher clip than Greinke.
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  #159  
Old 10-11-2018, 10:25 AM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Saw a tweet from Ken Rosenthal this morning where apparently there is a discussion going on, on how the Orioles misread their analytics and Machado is actually a much, MUCH better fielder than they were giving him credit for and he showed that playing for L.A.
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  #160  
Old 10-11-2018, 10:28 AM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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IMO, we're two years away from having an enviable group of position players/hitters.

Pitching is the real wildcard for the rebuild.

Kopech may come back stronger from TJ surgery, but he'll lose a year of development time, so his possible emergence as our ace is at least 2 and likely 3 years out. Also, it's way easier and less expensive to sign FA hitters than acquire quality pitchers.

The jury is out on Rodon, Covey and Giolito, the pen is a giant mess. Fulmer and Hansen are 1-2 years away from their rookie seasons.

We need to load up on pitchers this offseason, project big leaguers and near MLB arms (also take a shot on someone in the Rule V draft) and should invest #3 next year in the best college starter available.

Then after next season we'd have a better idea where we need to fill in with veteran help from FA.
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  #161  
Old 10-11-2018, 11:34 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxkid23
Greinke could be Shields part two. His velocity is falling off the cliff. He's getting by, but in the NL.
Shields Part II is a good comparison. Only Dallas Keuchel faced more batters last year than James Shields. Zack Greinke was also a workhorse; he was 6th in MLB in batters faced, and that even has some room for improvement when he doesnít have to bat.

I would be OK with Shields Part II if Arizona paid half the freight like San Diego did (preferably with more of that at the 3rd year than the 1st year). To be honest, I wouldnít mind bringing back Shields next year, either. Shields and Greinke can keep the spots warm for Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, and any other rospecys who need more development time.

For all the puffery we hear about ďveteran presence,Ē maybe it would be worthwhile to add another one to the mix while the funds are readily available.
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  #162  
Old 10-11-2018, 01:43 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Originally Posted by beasly213 View Post
Bingo. If Machado says he'll only play for the Sox if he get's to play SS then guess what? He's going to play SS. The Sox currently don't have a CF in their system, Anderson is fast, has range and a good arm. He could adjust to being an avg. CF
I'm not a fan of hitting the reset button on Tim Anderson then having him learn a brand new position. Besides, Luis Robert and Luis Basabe both have the potential to be good center fielders in the future.
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  #163  
Old 10-11-2018, 02:05 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by beasly213 View Post
Bingo. If Machado says he'll only play for the Sox if he get's to play SS then guess what? He's going to play SS. The Sox currently don't have a CF in their system, Anderson is fast, has range and a good arm. He could adjust to being an avg. CF
Isn't Luis Robert a CF? Sox made a significant investment in him so I just assumed they have him penciled in as the CF of the future.
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  #164  
Old 10-11-2018, 02:45 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by hoosiersoxfan View Post
Isn't Luis Robert a CF? Sox made a significant investment in him so I just assumed they have him penciled in as the CF of the future.
Agreed. Both Robert and Basabe are true CFs with elite defensive tools. Both are ready now to field the position, and are in the minors to refine their hit and power tools. The idea that we donít have CFs in the system is ludicrous; itís one of our organizational strengths, because we also have several OF prospects who probably are destined to fight it out with Adolfo for RF, but have the ability to field CF, such as Rutherford, Walker, and Call.
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  #165  
Old 10-11-2018, 02:59 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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With Eloy and Palka in the same lineup, will it even be fair to opposing pitchers if MM is also there?
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