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  #31  
Old 11-25-2019, 12:22 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Just a few weeks ago, I was of the opinion that the Sox needed to sign a back-of-the-rotation starter for a cheap 1-2 year contract. I was envisioning somebody like Odrozzi, not somebody like Hamels or Baumgartner. That is, somebody who both is a BOR type and will be paid like a BOR type.

I'm not sure I still think that. I'm more inclined now to let Cease/Lopez/Dunning/Kopech/etc. compete for the final 3 slots of the rotation and then trade for a solid BOR type mid-season if they are not 3 quality pitchers among those 4+ kids. It would probably be cheap to do so.
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  #32  
Old 11-25-2019, 12:43 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Just a few weeks ago, I was of the opinion that the Sox needed to sign a back-of-the-rotation starter for a cheap 1-2 year contract. I was envisioning somebody like Odrozzi, not somebody like Hamels or Baumgartner. That is, somebody who both is a BOR type and will be paid like a BOR type.

I'm not sure I still think that. I'm more inclined now to let Cease/Lopez/Dunning/Kopech/etc. compete for the final 3 slots of the rotation and then trade for a solid BOR type mid-season if they are not 3 quality pitchers among those 4+ kids. It would probably be cheap to do so.
I also concur that it makes more sense to give the kids a shot at it given the market. The back end options are all going to be unreasonably expensive relative to production (Hamels) or demand way more years than they'll hold up for (Baumgartner or Keuchel). Granted...it's only money. I wouldn't hate any of those guys, so long as it's as you say, a BOR role.

What complicates things is the teams public stance on Kopech's innings. I went into the offseason sure that he'd be in a rotation spot, and now I'm thinking he's either going to start the season in AAA or he's going to be in the pen all year. Kopech not being an option means we're really reliant on Lopez giving us a lot of quality innings this year. Personally, I am not confident Lopez will be in the league very much longer.
  #33  
Old 11-25-2019, 12:52 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Just a few weeks ago, I was of the opinion that the Sox needed to sign a back-of-the-rotation starter for a cheap 1-2 year contract. I was envisioning somebody like Odrozzi, not somebody like Hamels or Baumgartner. That is, somebody who both is a BOR type and will be paid like a BOR type.

I'm not sure I still think that. I'm more inclined now to let Cease/Lopez/Dunning/Kopech/etc. compete for the final 3 slots of the rotation and then trade for a solid BOR type mid-season if they are not 3 quality pitchers among those 4+ kids. It would probably be cheap to do so.
Dunning won't even be a year removed from TJ surgery come the start of camp. He still had work to do in the minors before the injury, so I think it's safe to say he will be brought along slowly and surely. I think I'll be seeing him in extended ST down here for a bit before he gets assigned anywhere.
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  #34  
Old 11-25-2019, 12:53 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Eloy has stated he doesn't want to be the DH. So his motivation should be to play his OF position adequately.
If it wasn't for Abreu's 3 year deal, I was thinking the Sox should groom Eloy for 1B. He then could share 1B with Jose (eventually Vaughn) and DH when not playing the field.
  #35  
Old 11-25-2019, 12:54 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Hamels, Odorizzi and Bumgarner are only back of the rotation starters in some fantasy world in which MLB is filled with 1990s Braves rotations. I don't know how you guys keep making these claims without getting called out decisively.
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  #36  
Old 11-25-2019, 01:22 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Dunning won't even be a year removed from TJ surgery come the start of camp. He still had work to do in the minors before the injury, so I think it's safe to say he will be brought along slowly and surely. I think I'll be seeing him in extended ST down here for a bit before he gets assigned anywhere.
I don't expect to see him this year at the Major League level unless things go perfectly and then it wouldn't be until August probably.
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  #37  
Old 11-25-2019, 01:37 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Just a few weeks ago, I was of the opinion that the Sox needed to sign a back-of-the-rotation starter for a cheap 1-2 year contract. I was envisioning somebody like Odrozzi, not somebody like Hamels or Baumgartner. That is, somebody who both is a BOR type and will be paid like a BOR type.

I'm not sure I still think that. I'm more inclined now to let Cease/Lopez/Dunning/Kopech/etc. compete for the final 3 slots of the rotation and then trade for a solid BOR type mid-season if they are not 3 quality pitchers among those 4+ kids. It would probably be cheap to do so.
I thought so before the offseason, but Hahn did specifically mention that he wanted to bring in 2 SPs. That to me tells me that (a) they aren't confident that Kopech will be ready come opening day, or (b) they are going to make up an excuse to start him in AAA and try to recoup a year of service time.

Perhaps that second SP is someone who would be willing to move to the bullpen once Kopech is brought up. I doubt they're ready to move Lopez to the bullpen from day one, but he is someone else whose hold on his rotation spot is tenuous, and could get moved to the bullpen if he starts out similarly to last year.
  #38  
Old 11-25-2019, 01:42 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Hamels, Odorizzi and Bumgarner are only back of the rotation starters in some fantasy world in which MLB is filled with 1990s Braves rotations. I don't know how you guys keep making these claims without getting called out decisively.
Odorizzi's issue is that he can't be counted on to go deep into games. He only went more than 6 innings twice last year. He made 30 starts, but only had 159 total innings. That's not the makeup of a TOR guy.

Edit: just looked up Hamels, and he wasn't any better last year: 141 innings in 27 starts. Bumgarner is in another category with 207 innings over 34 starts.

Last edited by ChiTownTrojan; 11-25-2019 at 02:16 PM.
  #39  
Old 11-25-2019, 03:02 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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For back end, I wonder if someone like Homer Bailey might make more sense. A bit of upside, but otherwise a solid 5 option good for about 2 WAR. And wouldn't require a long term commitment.
  #40  
Old 11-25-2019, 04:31 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Hamels, Odorizzi and Bumgarner are only back of the rotation starters in some fantasy world in which MLB is filled with 1990s Braves rotations. I don't know how you guys keep making these claims without getting called out decisively.
Yup.

Bumgarner had a 3.2 fWAR last year. Hamels had a 2.5 fWAR last year, but he compiled it in only 141 innings. Hamelsís age means his production can fall off a cliff at any point, but Iím fairly confident that Bumgarner will be fine for 4 more years.

Long-term, the pitching staff hinges on what Giolito, Kopech, and Cease provide. Short-term, this adds 2 league-average or better LH veterans with postseason experience.
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  #41  
Old 11-25-2019, 05:16 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Odorizzi's issue is that he can't be counted on to go deep into games. He only went more than 6 innings twice last year. He made 30 starts, but only had 159 total innings. That's not the makeup of a TOR guy.

Edit: just looked up Hamels, and he wasn't any better last year: 141 innings in 27 starts. Bumgarner is in another category with 207 innings over 34 starts.
By back of rotation starter you mean not a number one starter? Maybe this is where the confusion lies. Odorizzi was the number two starter on a team that just won 101 games. These are above league average starters, I don't consider those bottom of rotation. We have had plenty of bottom of rotation starters recently, so I'd think the distinction would be clear enough, but if you consider all pitchers who are not TOR to be BOR I guess they would fit that description. In that case all but about 20-25 mlb starters would be considered BOR. Seems to me there is some distinction between guys like Odorizzi and Nova though.
  #42  
Old 11-25-2019, 05:19 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
For back end, I wonder if someone like Homer Bailey might make more sense. A bit of upside, but otherwise a solid 5 option good for about 2 WAR. And wouldn't require a long term commitment.
Bumgarner and Hamels give you mid-rotation 3-WAR instead of 5th starter 2-WAR.
  #43  
Old 11-25-2019, 07:04 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Bumgarner and Hamels give you mid-rotation 3-WAR instead of 5th starter 2-WAR.

Baumgarner had a 2.5 WAR last year and is in a 3 year decline. Heck, he had a 2.4 WAR in 2018 in 80 fewer innings. He's in deep decline. The expectation is that the decline continues. Hamels...sure. But injury and continued effectiveness are a real concern from day one.


I mentioned Homer Bailey because reasonably he'll be cheaper, require fewer years, and give you a similar (if not higher) WAR next year. And when you're talking about guys who might be outperformed by Homer Bailey...yes, you are talking about guys at the back of a rotation.

Last edited by blandman; 11-25-2019 at 07:30 PM.
  #44  
Old 11-25-2019, 07:42 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Baumgarner had a 2.5 WAR last year and is in a 3 year decline. The expectation is that the decline continues. Hamels...sure. But injury and continued effectiveness are a real concern from day one.


I mentioned Homer Bailey because reasonably he'll be cheaper, require fewer years, and give you a similar (if not higher) WAR next year. And when you're talking about guys who might be outperformed by Homer Bailey...yes, you are talking about guys at the back of a rotation.
Bumgarner had a 3.2 fWAR, accumulated WAR at about a 30% better rate in 2019 than he did in 2018, and was 9th in MLB in innings pitched. You need to stop pretending that he is bad.
  #45  
Old 11-25-2019, 08:51 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Bumgarner had a 3.2 fWAR, accumulated WAR at about a 30% better rate in 2019 than he did in 2018, and was 9th in MLB in innings pitched. You need to stop pretending that he is bad.

Naw...he was roughly the same by that metric. If you're going to used WAR based off fip...his xfip in 2018 and 2019 were identical.



We have too measures to show the player Bumgarner is, one where he's getting worse and one where he's worse than he was but not getting better - just in a two year holding pattern. And the better of the two puts his xfip at 4.31 the last two years...both career highs. Being in his 30's, at the very best improvement shouldn't be expected. Having a hitters park, I fear a guy with an xfip nearing mid fours into his 30's, especially one that is usually amongst the league leaders in giving up the long ball.
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