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  #31  
Old 11-05-2017, 10:25 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
That seems like an awful lot of money to fork over just to buy out one year of Avi’s free agency. Avi will only be able to get something along the lines of $5-7 million this offseason through the arbitration process, and even if he duplicates his 2017 performance, his 2019 salary likely would still be well under the $13 million mark that you are proposing.

If the team truly believes in Avi, then I would rather see a four-year (or even a five-year) deal. Otherwise, I would just do the year-to-year arbitration thing.
Right, a three year deal isn't long enough but a four year deal pushes the decision on him down the road just long enough to leave residual trade value in the contract in case you decide to send him elsewhere.

Four years buys you his services from 2018-2021. This gives him a chance to prove this year was no fluke. It also gives the team a chance to develop Jiminez, Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Basabe, and others to see if they have a full outfield out of that crew. Each of them should be ready by 2020-2021 at the latest, if they are going to be major league starters at all.

The decision on Garcia then gets bumped to 2020:

1. Is he part of our team going forward? If so, give him an extension.
2. Are we going to go with three of the kids? If so, trade him with 2 years left on his contract and get value for him (assuming he continues to perform).
3. If he reverts to his previous mean then you either dump him cheaply or wait out the last year or two of the contract with him as an expensive 4th outfielder.

Three years leaves you with a one-year contracted player to trade and that lowers trade value considerably. Five years is unnecessary unless it comes with a team option. Year-to-year arbitration will end up being very expensive if Avi is for real or the cheapest option (but with no return value) if he is not.
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  #32  
Old 11-05-2017, 10:49 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
3. If he reverts to his previous mean then you either dump him cheaply or wait out the last year or two of the contract with him as an expensive 4th outfielder.
This third point is not an option. The team has to be smarter than falling for this scenario
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  #33  
Old 11-05-2017, 11:09 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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I would be cool with giving Abreu 4 years / $80 million or even 5 years / $90 million. He's probably worth it.

Avi's case is such an interesting one, because his progression from 2016 to 2017 was immense. I was among his many doubters in the first half of the season given his prior penchant to chase bad pitches and his seeming lack of power. Now the question is can the guy put up another 4.5-5.0 WAR season? His BABIP screams regression, but his defense and baserunning both improved. Progression isn't always linear. He's 26. So I'd see if he would take a 3-4 year contract at $12 million per.

Edit: here's a great article on him https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...good-white-sox
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  #34  
Old 11-05-2017, 11:40 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz
This third point is not an option. The team has to be smarter than falling for this scenario
Well, thatís the entire point of this whole endeavor. The talent evaluation process needs to lead to correct outcomes more often than it leads to incorrect outcomes.

For the past year, the decisions have been relatively easy to make. High-end major leaguers have been turned into high-end minor leaguers, and the roster has been rounded out with penny-ante free agents. Eventually, the decisions will get more difficult, as they do for any team that emerges out of rebuild hibernation.

I guess we can always just become a team that defaults to either letting the vast majority of our significant free agents walk away or flipping them when they head into their walk-years. Moreover, that philosophy very well may be the best one for this team to take.
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  #35  
Old 11-05-2017, 12:02 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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This third point is not an option. The team has to be smarter than falling for this scenario
"Option" isn't the right word. It is a potential outcome and the team has no control over that. They have to make their decisions based on what they think the outcome will be but they don't have any more control over the future than the rest of us do.

And frankly, the last scenario (the worst of the bunch) isn't all that bad under the circumstances. We're talking about signing Avi relatively cheaply right now to a contract that will have him filling one outfield spot during the next two rebuild years when it doesn't really matter team-wise if he is good or bad and then cutting ties at a relatively low cost to the team if it turns out this year was a fluke.

It's not like the Adam Dunn contract where we were stuck with a four year dud as a central component of a team we expected to be winning. It's a lot closer to Adam LaRoche where all we had to do was wait out two years or cut ties sooner than that.
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  #36  
Old 11-05-2017, 12:05 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Well, thatís the entire point of this whole endeavor. The talent evaluation process needs to lead to correct outcomes more often than it leads to incorrect outcomes.
And this is a key point. You are not going to get them all right. But you do have to get more of them right than you get wrong and hopefully significantly more right than wrong.

Avi is a difficult case to assess right now which is why I advocate bumping the decision down the road a few years in order to gain more clarity. The good news is that we have no expectations the next two years so if he stinks... oh well, no real cost to the rest of the team. If he plays well then a decision can be made right in time for when we expect the team to be highly competitive.
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  #37  
Old 11-05-2017, 12:18 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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White Sox claim Daniel Palka off of waivers from the Twins:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/...rs-from-twins/

....and spare us the "who cares" replies. I'm just reporting the White Sox transaction news. Every team takes a flier on players like this.
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  #38  
Old 11-05-2017, 01:25 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
White Sox claim Daniel Palka off of waivers from the Twins:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/...rs-from-twins/

....and spare us the "who cares" replies. I'm just reporting the White Sox transaction news. Every team takes a flier on players like this.
Yup, another interesting, cheap pick-up. At 26 years old and just now reaching AAA he is hardly a prospect anymore but he has serious power and is a left handed bat so he could still add value.

Story says he was ranked #22 on the Twins prospect list but by the time I got there he had already been removed. But he was ranked #18 last year on their list and a review of him can be found there.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=min

Quote:
Daniel Palka | Rank: 18 (Preseason: 29)
Team: Chicago White Sox ETA: 2017
Position: OF Age: 26 DOB: 10/28/1991
Bats: L Throws: L Height: 6' 2" Weight: 220 lb.
Drafted: 2013, 3rd (88) - ARI

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

There's raw power and there's in-game power. Many a prospect over time has the former, but never can find a way to tap into it to have the latter consistently. While there is a lot of swing and miss to Palka's game, he's shown that he can hit the ball out, with 51 homers over his first two full years of pro ball. It's that power the Twins wanted when they acquired him last fall from the D-backs in return for catcher Chris Herrmann.

Palka's power comes more from strength than bat speed and he's always going to strike out a lot. While he'll draw some walks, he'll never hit for a high average. He played both the outfield and first base in the D-backs system and the Twins plan to let him play mostly in the outfield moving forward, though they won't abandon first base entirely. He'll mostly play the corners, but might see some time in center as well. Palka runs well for someone his size, stealing 24 bases in 2015.

The upper levels should be a good challenge for Palka to see if the power will keep showing up against better pitching. If it keeps coming, his left-handed power bat could be of value, at least off of a big league bench.
With the Sox he has a lot of competition and is (hopefully) stuck behind Delmonico but it's never a mistake to pick up guys like this and see if they can add something to the team or the system.

EDIT: let me correct that... he hit AAA for a few games last year and spent most of this year there. Showed power both years but not much average in 2016. Average was a respectable .274 at AAA this year. Still, at 26, no longer a prospect and he was not added to the White Sox top 30.
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  #39  
Old 11-05-2017, 01:29 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
White Sox claim Daniel Palka off of waivers from the Twins:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/...rs-from-twins/

....and spare us the "who cares" replies. I'm just reporting the White Sox transaction news. Every team takes a flier on players like this.
I definitely care. These are the type of pickups that are going to fill our roster and hopefully help us dig up some flippable value ala Swarzak.
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  #40  
Old 11-05-2017, 03:28 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
I definitely care. These are the type of pickups that are going to fill our roster and hopefully help us dig up some flippable value ala Swarzak.
He's probably Jerry Sands II, but they have to keep rolling the dice.
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  #41  
Old 11-06-2017, 07:20 PM
Tragg Tragg is online now
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He looks okay, but nothing distinguishable from about 5 other corner types on the AAA/ML cusp. What the Sox need are up the middle players (and pitching).

Sox will probably have some 40 man roster decisions coming up. There are some prospects who need protection.
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  #42  
Old 11-07-2017, 12:05 AM
SoxSpeed22 SoxSpeed22 is offline
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Worth the flier. He could compete with Delmonico for left field, could maybe DH, or play first if something happens to Abreu. The Twins are set at outfield, so there was no room there. As long as he's better than Cody Asche.
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  #43  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:54 AM
kobo kobo is offline
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I don't understand why any of you want the Sox to give Avi a 3-4 year deal that will pay him more than he will make through arbitration. He had one good year and now you want to lock him up? That makes no sense at all. Let him go the arbitration route this year and prove next year that this year wasn't a fluke. I still don't believe he has turned a corner and I hope the organization thinks the same. There is no need or reason to offer him a deal at this point.
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  #44  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:52 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by kobo View Post
I don't understand why any of you want the Sox to give Avi a 3-4 year deal that will pay him more than he will make through arbitration. He had one good year and now you want to lock him up? That makes no sense at all. Let him go the arbitration route this year and prove next year that this year wasn't a fluke. I still don't believe he has turned a corner and I hope the organization thinks the same. There is no need or reason to offer him a deal at this point.
Yeah totally agree. Even if he hits .310 the next 2 seasons, he doesn't have the power numbers to even get a big contract. Let's ride out the next 2 seasons and see where we are then, or until a great offer for him comes along.
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  #45  
Old 11-07-2017, 05:25 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kobo
I don't understand why any of you want the Sox to give Avi a 3-4 year deal that will pay him more than he will make through arbitration. He had one good year and now you want to lock him up? That makes no sense at all. Let him go the arbitration route this year and prove next year that this year wasn't a fluke. I still don't believe he has turned a corner and I hope the organization thinks the same. There is no need or reason to offer him a deal at this point.
You donít believe Avi has turned a corner. Iím assuming that the people who want to extend Avi feel the opposite way.
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