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  #16  
Old 11-02-2017, 10:30 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is online now
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
My gut take:

Abreu gets his last big contract. Thinking that he makes somewhere like...4-5 years (with perhaps some options in there), 80 million+. Yeah, those last few years of the deal will probably suck, but I'm adamant that he needs to be kept around to help the younger kids, at the very least.

Aviasil goes to arbitration for one more year to prove that last year wasn't a fluke. If he puts up numbers close to last year or better, then he gets a contract as well.
I could see the Sox offering Garcia like 3 years for 40 to see if he'll take it for the financial security. He'd still only be 27-28 when the contract ended and if he continues to play like he did this year would be in line for a massive contract as he enters his prime years. Even if he sucks the money won't hamstring the Sox before it's off the books.
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  #17  
Old 11-03-2017, 09:16 AM
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Not surprisingly the Sox have declined the option on Soto.
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  #18  
Old 11-03-2017, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
Abreu gets his last big contract. Thinking that he makes somewhere like...4-5 years (with perhaps some options in there), 80 million+. Yeah, those last few years of the deal will probably suck, but I'm adamant that he needs to be kept around to help the younger kids, at the very least.
Typically when players are given those bigger contracts, teams hope the player will produce the value of it within the first few years. Right now I believe 1 win in fWAR or bWAR is worth about $8 million to teams.

So let's say Abreu got 4 years and $80 million. Going by just his bat- if he's worth 4 WAR for 2 more years each, that's $64 million worth of value out of his entire $80 million contract. He'd only have to be barely an above average player for the final 2 years to meet the entire value. So teams are theoretically actually getting a discount on a player up front, and in return the players get a few more years of security.

Then, as you said, Abreu would be worth even more if you consider intangibles like what he brings to the clubhouse and his affect on ticket/merchandise sales for the team. I'd actually probably be okay if they gave him 4 years at $20 million per.

Seems like a lot of money to us because it is. But these owners are billionaires who are printing money, even if they claim otherwise. Baseball players are paid much closer to how much they're actually worth when compared to the NBA/NFL/NHL and it's not even close.
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  #19  
Old 11-03-2017, 04:49 PM
jshanahanjr jshanahanjr is offline
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Default Hector Santiago

Good idea to bring back Hector to the South Side ? He could fill in for Rodon and then go to pen if all the other starters are pitching well. Maybe he and Coop can finish some unfinished business?
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  #20  
Old 11-03-2017, 05:23 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Good idea to bring back Hector to the South Side ? He could fill in for Rodon and then go to pen if all the other starters are pitching well. Maybe he and Coop can finish some unfinished business?
Not the worst idea. We need innings to be eaten, and he’s left-handed.

He’d probably want/command more than a one-year deal, though, and a more competitive club might appeal to him more. Even so, if he’s decent even as Rodon returns, and our top starter prospects like Kopech (2018) and Hansen (2019) begin matriculating into the rotation, he can be flipped for another prospect or used in long relief.
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  #21  
Old 11-03-2017, 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by jshanahanjr View Post
Good idea to bring back Hector to the South Side ? He could fill in for Rodon and then go to pen if all the other starters are pitching well. Maybe he and Coop can finish some unfinished business?
He’s as good a stopgap as any other bum.

I almost expect we’ll see Yovanni Gallardo here. Or Wade Miley. Yuck.
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  #22  
Old 11-03-2017, 06:03 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry
Typically when players are given those bigger contracts, teams hope the player will produce the value of it within the first few years. Right now I believe 1 win in fWAR or bWAR is worth about $8 million to teams.

So let's say Abreu got 4 years and $80 million. Going by just his bat- if he's worth 4 WAR for 2 more years each, that's $64 million worth of value out of his entire $80 million contract. He'd only have to be barely an above average player for the final 2 years to meet the entire value. So teams are theoretically actually getting a discount on a player up front, and in return the players get a few more years of security.

Then, as you said, Abreu would be worth even more if you consider intangibles like what he brings to the clubhouse and his affect on ticket/merchandise sales for the team. I'd actually probably be okay if they gave him 4 years at $20 million per.

Seems like a lot of money to us because it is. But these owners are billionaires who are printing money, even if they claim otherwise. Baseball players are paid much closer to how much they're actually worth when compared to the NBA/NFL/NHL and it's not even close.
I think Abreu would want a guaranteed 5th year or a player option for the 5th year, bringing the total commitment to nine figures.
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  #23  
Old 11-04-2017, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
He’s as good a stopgap as any other bum.

I almost expect we’ll see Yovanni Gallardo here. Or Wade Miley. Yuck.
Indeed.
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  #24  
Old 11-04-2017, 11:44 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Here’s something to keep in mind.

Yes, the Sox played hard at the end of 2017.

But their season win total was also buoyed by a decent April.

It’s entitely possible that the 2018 Sox could play hard and still lose a lot of games, as young players go through further adjustment periods.

In fact, I would much prefer young players learn to overcome adversity in a losing season, rather than compound individual struggle with pressure to perform in a premature chase for the postseason.

If the Sox lose 90+ games in 2018, we shouldn’t panic and claim the rebuild is failing.

In fact, while I’m not advocating tanking in 2018, there would be nothing inherently wrong with losing 90+ games and getting another Top-5 pick in 2019, as our system could benefit both from the addition of a top prospect, plus the bonus pool money that can be used to pay over slot to sign players who have dropped in the draft due to signability concerns.

Let’s calibrate our expectations and continue to celebrate playing hard and individual growth, and treat wins as secondary serendipity.
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  #25  
Old 11-04-2017, 12:24 PM
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If one is expecting anything better than a 90 loss season, they will likely be disappointed.
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  #26  
Old 11-04-2017, 12:40 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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If one is expecting anything better than a 90 loss season, they will likely be disappointed.
90 losses wouldn't surprise or disappoint me at all... but I also wouldn't be surprised, and frankly expect, better. Eloy and Kopech will provide a big boost to the team in the second half. Moncada and Anderson should continue to improve the entire season. As should Giolito and Lopez. Hopefully Avi as well while Abreu continues to be at the top of his game.

The bullpen and too much reliance on part-time players filling full-time roles will keep them down but I expect to see serious improvement this year. I had originally thought that this year would be worse than last, the low point in the whole process, but Hahn made this all happen much quicker than I expected so I no longer think that.
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  #27  
Old 11-04-2017, 05:04 PM
Falstaff Falstaff is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
90 losses wouldn't surprise or disappoint me at all... but I also wouldn't be surprised, and frankly expect, better. Eloy and Kopech will provide a big boost to the team in the second half. Moncada and Anderson should continue to improve the entire season. As should Giolito and Lopez. Hopefully Avi as well while Abreu continues to be at the top of his game.

The bullpen and too much reliance on part-time players filling full-time roles will keep them down but I expect to see serious improvement this year. I had originally thought that this year would be worse than last, the low point in the whole process, but Hahn made this all happen much quicker than I expected so I no longer think that.
Agreed. I'm thinking Moncada will finally put it all together and have a breakout year as Avi did last season. The White Sox are going to surprise a few of their own fans with modest success in '18.
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  #28  
Old 11-04-2017, 05:18 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Originally Posted by Falstaff View Post
Agreed. I'm thinking Moncada will finally put it all together and have a breakout year as Avi did last season. The White Sox are going to surprise a few of their own fans with modest success in '18.
Finally is kind of an odd choice of words here. Moncada is 22 and has a whopping 62 MLB games and just 80 AAA games on his resume.
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  #29  
Old 11-04-2017, 08:12 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I could see the Sox offering Garcia like 3 years for 40 to see if he'll take it for the financial security. He'd still only be 27-28 when the contract ended and if he continues to play like he did this year would be in line for a massive contract as he enters his prime years. Even if he sucks the money won't hamstring the Sox before it's off the books.
Three years for forty what?

He's logged one good solid season. When he proves it's not a fluke then offer money w/incentives.
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Last edited by Grzegorz; 11-05-2017 at 04:52 AM.
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  #30  
Old 11-04-2017, 10:49 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile
I could see the Sox offering Garcia like 3 years for 40 to see if he'll take it for the financial security. He'd still only be 27-28 when the contract ended and if he continues to play like he did this year would be in line for a massive contract as he enters his prime years. Even if he sucks the money won't hamstring the Sox before it's off the books.
That seems like an awful lot of money to fork over just to buy out one year of Avi’s free agency. Avi will only be able to get something along the lines of $5-7 million this offseason through the arbitration process, and even if he duplicates his 2017 performance, his 2019 salary likely would still be well under the $13 million mark that you are proposing.

If the team truly believes in Avi, then I would rather see a four-year (or even a five-year) deal. Otherwise, I would just do the year-to-year arbitration thing.
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